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可持续领域的防御策略:2026 年六大趋势-Sustainability-Defence in Sustainability Six Trends into 2026
2026-01-21 02:58
Summary of the Conference Call on Defence in Sustainability Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Defence in Sustainability** sector, particularly in Europe, highlighting trends and insights for 2026 [2][3]. Key Trends and Insights 1. **Easing of Exclusions**: - Exclusions related to conventional and nuclear weapons are easing, with positioning in Article 9 and Article 8 funds increasing by approximately **5 percentage points** and **10 percentage points**, respectively [2][21]. - Investors are adopting a more nuanced approach towards conventional weapons, allowing exposure to military software and surveillance while maintaining exclusions on combat equipment [15][21]. 2. **Security as a Prominent Theme**: - The **Security** theme generated the highest net inflows in 2025, surpassing even AI and Big Data, and is expected to remain significant in 2026, encompassing national security, energy security, and cybersecurity [10][29]. 3. **Dual-use Technologies**: - There is growing investor interest in dual-use technologies, with some focusing on technologies applicable to both civilian and defence sectors, while others are identifying companies pivoting towards defence markets [30][32]. 4. **Autonomous Weapons Development**: - The development of autonomous weapons is primarily driven by private companies, with public corporates focusing on "wingman" capabilities. Significant deployment is not expected until the mid-2030s [33][35]. 5. **Anti-defence Technologies**: - The focus on cost-effective counter-warfare technologies is increasing due to the declining costs of offensive capabilities, such as low-cost drones. This trend is accelerating demand for scalable defensive solutions [38][39]. 6. **Corporate Restructuring**: - Companies outside traditional aerospace and defence (A&D) sectors are pivoting towards defence, with firms like thyssenkrupp and Indra Sistemas deriving over **5%** of their revenues from defence-related activities. There is also a trend of corporate restructuring to unlock valuation upside [41][43]. Additional Insights - The European Commission's stance on defence investing within sustainability remains unchanged, clarifying that nuclear weapons are not classified as controversial weapons [5]. - The report indicates that European defence spending is projected to reach **3% of GDP by 2030**, implying a **7% CAGR** and total spending exceeding **$700 billion** [47]. - The report highlights the importance of upcoming country-level defence budgets in driving order momentum and earnings estimates for companies in the sector [48]. Conclusion - The Defence in Sustainability sector is evolving with significant trends in exclusions, security themes, dual-use technologies, and corporate restructuring. The insights provided in this report are crucial for understanding the investment landscape and potential opportunities in the defence sector moving into 2026 [2][3][10].