Core Insights - Seagate is experiencing strong demand for its storage solutions, particularly in the context of AI data center buildouts, with a build-to-order pipeline for nearline hard drives booked through mid-2026 [1][5] Financial Performance - In Q4 fiscal 2025, Seagate reported a 30% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.4 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin rising 700 basis points to 37.9% and earnings per share soaring 146% to $2.60 [2] - For the full fiscal year, Seagate achieved $9.1 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $8.10 [2] Market Trends - The global data storage market is projected to grow from $255.3 billion in 2025 to $774 billion by 2032, positioning Seagate as a key beneficiary of this growth [3] - The ongoing AI boom is driving demand for advanced storage solutions, as massive amounts of data generated by AI models need to be stored and retrieved [4][6] Product Innovations - Seagate's heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology, branded as Mozaic, is enhancing storage density and energy efficiency, with major cloud service providers increasingly adopting this technology [3][8] - The Mozaic 4 platform, which supports up to 44 terabytes per drive, is expected to begin volume production in the first half of 2026 [9][10] Cash Flow and Capital Management - Seagate reported a free cash flow of $425 million in Q4 fiscal 2025, with a cash and equivalents balance of $2.2 billion and gross debt of $5 billion [12] - The company returned approximately 75% of its free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and plans to resume share repurchases in Q1 fiscal 2026 [13] Valuation - Seagate's shares have increased by 145% in 2025, trading at 16.3 times earnings, which is considered reasonable given its market potential and strong cash flows [14]

Core Insights - The article highlights the dominance of the "Magnificent Seven" in AI investing, suggesting that there are other underappreciated AI investment opportunities available [2][4]. Group 1: AI Investment Landscape - Many investors are primarily aware of large-cap AI stocks, limiting their knowledge to a few prominent names [1][2]. - The Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ) is presented as a viable option for investors seeking exposure to lesser-known AI equities [3][4]. Group 2: Notable Companies in QQQJ - Seagate Technologies (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) are identified as two stocks that merit more attention in the AI space, collectively representing nearly 4% of QQQJ's holdings [5][6]. - Seagate's nearline hard drives are crucial for hyperscale cloud storage, with contracts extending visibility into mid-2026, ensuring stable revenue streams for cloud service providers [6][7]. - Western Digital is positioned well in the AI storage market, with its agentic AI initiatives being recognized as a significant growth area [6][7].

Core Insights - Seagate Technology is experiencing significant demand growth driven by cloud, AI, and edge computing, with nearline hard drives being essential for hyperscale cloud storage [1][2] - The company's build-to-order contracts provide revenue visibility into mid-2026, ensuring predictable supply for cloud service providers [1] - Seagate's mass-capacity revenues increased by 40% year-over-year to $2 billion in Q4, with nearline drives making up 91% of mass-capacity exabytes shipped [2][9] Revenue and Profitability - The adoption of Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology and the Mozaic 3+ platform is expected to enhance storage economics and profitability [3] - Seagate's Q4 non-GAAP gross margin reached 37.9%, a 170 basis point sequential increase and nearly 700 basis points year-over-year, driven by high-capacity nearline drives and pricing discipline [5][9] - Non-GAAP operating income nearly doubled to $640 million, resulting in an operating margin increase to 26.2% [5] Future Outlook - For Q1 of fiscal 2026, Seagate anticipates revenues of approximately $2.5 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, with non-GAAP earnings projected at $2.30 per share [6] - Management expects continued gross margin expansion into the mid-to-high 20% range of revenues [6] Competitive Landscape - Seagate faces competition from HDD and SSD manufacturers like Western Digital and Pure Storage, which are also capitalizing on rising cloud demand [7][8] - Western Digital reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 41.3% in Q4, while Pure Storage's non-GAAP gross margin was 70.9% in Q1 of fiscal 2025 [8][10] Market Performance - Seagate's shares have increased by 66.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Computer Integrated Systems industry's growth of 20.2% [11] - The forward price/earnings ratio for Seagate is 17.01X, lower than the industry's 19.97X [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Seagate's earnings for fiscal 2026 has been revised up by 4.2% to $10.30 [13]

Summary of Western Digital (WDC) FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Western Digital (WDC) - **Focus**: 100% hard drive focused data storage company, heavily tied to cloud services, with 87% of business linked to cloud as of fiscal Q3 [7][8] Key Financial Highlights - **Buyback Program**: Initiated a $2 billion buyback program effective immediately [6] - **Debt Management**: Redeemed $1.8 billion of debt related to 2026 senior notes [7] - **Dividend**: Announced a dividend of $0.40 per share for the year [7] Strategic Priorities 1. **Customer Engagement**: Focus on deeper engagement with major customers, particularly in the cloud sector [10] 2. **Product Innovation**: Commitment to delivering leading-edge products and IP innovations, including transitioning to HAMR technology [11] 3. **Operational Efficiency**: Strong emphasis on operational execution and cost discipline, with hard drive yields improved from 60% to 90% [12] Market Dynamics - **Demand Trends**: Positive demand from cloud and hyperscalers, with strong CapEx spending intentions [13][14] - **Trade and Tariffs**: Potential indirect impacts on retail and enterprise client channels, but no major immediate effects from tariffs noted [16][20] - **Cloud Spending**: Robust outlook for cloud business, with long-term agreements providing visibility into demand through 2026 [22] Growth Projections - **Exabyte Growth**: Projected nearline exabyte growth CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2028, with 15% from organic cloud growth and 8% from AI-related demand [26] - **Capacity Management**: Focus on aerial density improvements rather than increasing physical capacity, with no plans for additional CapEx [29][37] AI and Data Storage - **AI Workloads**: Hard drives are foundational for AI data lakes, providing cost-effective bandwidth despite limitations in IOPS [32][33] - **Customer Collaboration**: Close partnerships with hyperscale customers to optimize data center architectures for AI workloads [33] Product Roadmap - **Current Products**: Successful ramp-up of 26 terabyte CMR and 32 terabyte ultra SMR drives, with over 1 million units expected to ship [44][46] - **Future Products**: On track for next-gen ePMR based 28 terabyte CMR and 36 terabyte ultra SMR drives in the first half of next year [48] - **HAMR Technology**: Development of HAMR technology with customer feedback indicating confidence in execution timelines [50][52] Financial Performance - **Gross Margins**: Current gross margins exceed 40%, significantly better than previous targets of 31-34% [59] - **Operational Efficiencies**: Improved yields and cost discipline have driven margin expansion [61][62] Capital Allocation Strategy - **Free Cash Flow**: Plans to return 100% of excess free cash flow once net leverage reaches 1x to 1.5x, with a focus on dividends and buybacks [66][67] Conclusion - **Overall Outlook**: Western Digital is positioned for strong growth driven by cloud demand, operational efficiencies, and strategic product innovations, particularly in the AI space. The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and operational execution.