Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. is scheduled to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 5, 2026, with an expected earnings of 28 cents per share and revenues of $1.06 billion [1][7] Financial Performance Estimates - The earnings estimate for the fiscal second quarter has remained stable over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year increase of 21.7% [2] - The revenue estimate suggests a year-over-year growth of 22% for the same quarter [2] - For fiscal 2026, the revenue estimate is pegged at $4.05 billion, reflecting a 25.7% year-over-year rise, while the EPS for the current fiscal year is expected to be 99 cents, a significant improvement from 15 cents a year ago [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for Affirm is 0.00%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which does not conclusively predict an earnings beat this time [4] Key Growth Metrics - Affirm's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is projected to grow by 31.9%, with merchant network revenues expected to rise by 28.2% year-over-year [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for merchant network revenues is $313.8 million, indicating a 28.2% increase from the prior-year quarter [8] - Management anticipates GMV to be in the range of $13-$13.3 billion for the fiscal second quarter [9] Consumer Engagement and Revenue Streams - Active consumers are expected to grow by 19.8% year-over-year, with transactions per active consumer projected to rise by 13.6% [10] - Card network revenues are anticipated to improve by 41.1% year-over-year, driven by increased usage of Affirm's virtual cards [11] - Interest income is estimated at $484.6 million, reflecting an 18.4% year-over-year rise, while servicing income is pegged at $41.6 million, indicating a 45% jump from the previous year [12] Industry Comparisons - Visa reported a first-quarter fiscal 2026 EPS of $3.17, beating estimates due to higher payments and cross-border volumes, although offset by increased operating expenses [13] - Mastercard's fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $4.76 per share surpassed estimates by 13.3%, driven by growing cross-border volumes and value-added services [14] - American Express reported a fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of $3.53, slightly missing estimates but showing a 16% year-over-year increase, supported by rising Card Member spending [15]

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 8, 2025, with a projected loss of 8 cents per share on revenues of $783.1 million, indicating significant year-over-year improvements in both earnings and revenues [1][2]. Financial Performance - The fiscal third-quarter earnings estimate has improved by 2 cents over the past month, reflecting an 81.4% year-over-year improvement [1]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year growth of 35.9% [1]. - For the current fiscal year, the revenue estimate is pegged at $3.2 billion, implying a rise of 37.1% year over year, while the EPS consensus is a loss of 6 cents, indicating a 96.4% improvement year over year [2]. Earnings Expectations - Affirm is predicted to beat earnings estimates due to a positive Earnings ESP of +63.27% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [3]. - The company has consistently beaten consensus estimates for earnings in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 84.1% [2]. Revenue Drivers - Merchant network revenues are expected to reach $199.5 million, indicating a 25.2% rise from the prior-year quarter [5]. - The Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) is anticipated to grow by 29.2% year-over-year, with management estimating it to be in the range of $8-$8.3 billion [6]. - Active consumers are projected to grow by 17.4% year-over-year, and transactions per active consumer are expected to rise by 16.5% [7]. Card Network and Interest Income - Card network revenues are expected to improve by 30% year-over-year, while interest income is pegged at $414.4 million, indicating a 31.3% year-over-year rise [8]. - Servicing income is estimated to reach nearly $31.3 million, reflecting a 23.6% increase from the year-ago quarter [9]. Transaction Costs - The company anticipates higher transaction costs in the range of $415-$430 million for the quarter [9]. Stock Performance - Affirm's stock has increased by 38.6% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 19.4% and significantly surpassing the S&P 500's increase of 12.3% [10]. Valuation - Despite the recent stock price appreciation, Affirm's valuation remains relatively cheap at 4.34X forward 12-month sales, below the industry average of 5.12X [13]. Competitive Landscape - The delay of Klarna's IPO has reduced competitive pressure in the BNPL space, benefiting Affirm as one of the few publicly traded players [18]. - Concerns regarding Walmart's relationship with Affirm are considered overblown, as Walmart contributed only 5% to Affirm's GMV [18]. Long-term Outlook - Affirm is expanding internationally and diversifying its offerings, which positions it to compete with major players like Visa and PayPal [19]. - The company is focusing on profitability by tightening underwriting standards and improving margins, which is expected to bolster investor confidence [19].