Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of AI stocks, highlighting that while many have inflated valuations, there are a few undervalued companies with strong fundamentals that present good investment opportunities. Group 1: AI Stock Valuations - Many AI stocks, such as Nvidia and Palantir Technologies, have seen their valuations become excessive, with Nvidia trading at over 50 times earnings and Palantir at a staggering $420 billion despite low revenue generation [2][3] - Investors may be hesitant to invest in AI stocks due to these high valuations, which do not reflect the companies' current financial performance [2] Group 2: Undervalued AI Stocks - ASML is highlighted as a key player in the tech sector, dominating the market for extreme ultraviolet photolithography machines, with profit margins around 29% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 36, lower than the sector average [4][5] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) is noted for its leadership in chip production, reporting a 41% year-over-year sales increase to $33.1 billion, with profit margins around 46% and trading at 32 times trailing earnings [8][9][11] - Alphabet is considered undervalued, trading at less than 28 times trailing earnings, with significant assets like YouTube and Google Search, and a promising AI chatbot, Gemini, which enhances its business prospects [12][13][14] Group 3: Market Performance and Future Outlook - ASML's stock has risen nearly 54% in the past year, indicating strong market performance, with expectations for further growth due to its critical role in chip development for AI [7] - TSMC's market cap is around $1.2 trillion, but it is suggested that it deserves a higher valuation given its competitive advantages [11] - Alphabet's market cap stands at $3.5 trillion, and it is argued that it should be valued even higher due to its diverse business model and AI capabilities [14][15]

Core Insights - The Bristlemoon Global Fund achieved a 5.0% return for the September 2025 quarter and a cumulative 19.3% return since inception, net of fees [2] - Key contributors to performance included AppLovin, ASML, and Alphabet, while PAR Technology Corporation, Salesforce, and Hemnet detracted from performance [3] Investment Approach - The fund focuses on compounding capital through investments in high-quality, competitively advantaged businesses with specific traits, including the ability to forecast future earnings and reinvest at high rates of return [5][7] - The portfolio consists of 95.2% long positions and 9.5% short positions, with a net exposure of 85.7% [5] Performance Analysis - The fund's top five long positions as of September 30, 2025, include AerCap Holdings, Alphabet, AppLovin, Hemnet Group, and Uber Technologies [6] - The fund's monthly performance showed fluctuations, with notable returns in September 2025 [6] ASML Holding N.V. - ASML is a monopoly supplier of lithography machines essential for semiconductor fabrication, particularly in the AI and computing sectors [18] - Despite a significant drawdown in stock price, the fund believes the bearish narratives surrounding ASML's growth prospects are misguided, emphasizing the ongoing demand for its technology [20][21] - Concerns regarding demand normalization in China and the transition to new transistor architectures are addressed, with the fund asserting that ASML's market position remains strong [22][24][35] Alphabet Inc - Alphabet has been perceived as struggling to innovate, but the fund argues that recent product launches and advancements in AI demonstrate its competitive edge [40][41] - The narrative of Google Search being disrupted by AI is countered with data showing stable growth in search revenue and the effectiveness of AI Overviews in monetization [51][53] - The company is positioned to leverage its AI capabilities and advertising scale to maintain its market leadership [59] Synopsys Inc - Synopsys is a leading vendor of electronic design automation tools, benefiting from increased design starts in the semiconductor industry [61] - A recent stock price decline following earnings results is viewed as an overreaction, presenting a buying opportunity for a company with strong fundamentals [63][66] PAR Technology Corporation - PAR has faced significant stock price volatility, with a 44% decline attributed to disappointing earnings and growth guidance [68] - The company is focusing on long-term value creation by pursuing large contracts with major clients, which could significantly enhance its annual recurring revenue [75][77] - Despite short-term challenges, the fund maintains a positive outlook on PAR's potential for recovery and growth [83]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market has experienced volatility this year, with potential for further declines if a recession occurs [1] - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as a promising long-term investment area, suggesting that now may be a good time to buy top AI stocks at discounted valuations [2] Group 2: Company Analysis Alphabet - Alphabet is considered an underrated AI stock, with shares down 16% year to date [4] - The company possesses vast amounts of data through platforms like YouTube and Google Search, which can enhance its AI capabilities [4] - Trading at 20 times trailing earnings, Alphabet generated $100 billion in profit last year, representing 29% of its revenue, making it an attractive buy for AI investors [5] Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD is viewed as a strong AI investment despite competition from Nvidia, which currently dominates the chip market [6] - The company is expected to capture significant market share as AI adoption increases, with CEO Lisa Su projecting AI chip revenue to grow to tens of billions of dollars [7][8] - AMD's stock is down over 20% year to date, presenting a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors [8] ASML Holding - ASML is a key player in the semiconductor industry, specializing in photolithography machines essential for advanced chip production [9] - The company has a strong competitive position as the main provider of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, making it a valuable investment for AI-focused investors [10] - Sales have grown by 52% over the past three years, and while the stock is down 3% since January, it has decreased more than 30% over the past 12 months [10] - Currently trading at 32 times trailing earnings, ASML's long-term prospects appear promising [11]