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Should You Buy, Sell or Hold CMC Stock Before Q1 Earnings Release?
ZACKS· 2026-01-08 12:55
Core Viewpoint - Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is expected to report a year-over-year improvement in revenues and earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with earnings anticipated to jump 99% year-over-year [1][2][6]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMC's fiscal first-quarter revenues is $2 billion, reflecting a 4.6% decrease from the previous year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is $1.55 per share, which has increased by 2.6% over the past 60 days and indicates a year-over-year rise of 98.7% [2][6]. Earnings Surprise History - CMC has had mixed earnings surprises in the past four quarters, beating estimates once, matching once, and missing twice, with an average surprise of -6.3% [5]. Market Conditions and Performance Drivers - The company is facing challenges from a prolonged economic slowdown in the Western world and weaker-than-expected steel demand, particularly in Europe [10]. - Despite these challenges, CMC expects improved steel margins in North America due to price hikes offsetting rising scrap costs [6][12]. Strategic Acquisitions and Synergies - CMC has recently completed two significant acquisitions, positioning itself as a leading player in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions, with expected annual run-rate synergies of $25-$30 million from these acquisitions by year three [18][19]. Valuation and Stock Performance - CMC shares have increased by 56.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 54.5% and the S&P 500's 21% [13]. - The company is currently trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 0.96, which is lower than the industry average of 1.59 [15]. Investment Considerations - Given the expected strong fiscal first-quarter results driven by improving conditions in Europe and demand in North America, along with favorable valuation and upward earnings estimate revisions, it may be a good time to consider investing in CMC [20].