Trump stunned the logistics industry by widening his steel and aluminum tariffs to include more than 400 consumer items that contain the metals, such as motorcycles and tableware https://t.co/QJh7eTPHG9 ...

Market Trends - Iron ore and steel prices reached a four-month high [1] - China's mega dam plan in Tibet is expected to increase demand for iron ore and steel [1]

Tariffs - The company is announcing tariffs on pharmaceuticals, chips, and other big items [1] - Tariffs of 50% were imposed on steel and aluminum [1] - Lumber tariffs were recently announced [1] - The company is implementing a 50% tariff on copper [1]

Company Overview - Nucor is a large and diversified U.S. steelmaker that operates entirely on electric arc mini-mills, allowing for more flexibility compared to traditional blast-furnace technology [2][4] - The company produces steel and fabricated steel products, including building components and parts for the electrical grid, which helps in generating higher-margin products with sustainable demand [5] Industry Dynamics - The steel industry is cyclical, and Nucor's stock price tends to fluctuate significantly between periods of price increases and declines [6][12] - Currently, Nucor's stock is down over 45% from its early 2024 high, but historically, such declines are not unusual for the company [7][10] Investment Perspective - The recent stock price has seen an increase of around 8% from its April low, suggesting a potential inflection point, although it could also be a temporary price movement [9] - Long-term investment in Nucor should focus on buying during downturns when the market sentiment is negative, as this could present a good buying opportunity [12][13] - Nucor's management consistently reinvests in the business, particularly during downturns, to emerge stronger post-recession [10]

Group 1 - Lowe's is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 21, 2025, with anticipated earnings of $2.89 per share and revenue of $21.03 billion, reflecting a 6% decrease in earnings and a 2% decline in sales year-over-year [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $130 billion, with reported revenue of $84 billion, operating profit of $10 billion, and net income of $7 billion over the last twelve months [2] - Approximately 70% of Lowe's sales come from do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, whose demand has weakened, impacting the company's performance [2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that Lowe's stock has risen 55% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day gain of 1.7% and a maximum increase of 10% [1][5] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for Lowe's, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 55% of the time [5] - The correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns post-earnings can provide a less risky trading strategy, especially if a strong correlation exists [3][4]

Group 1 - Home Depot is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 20, 2025, with anticipated earnings of $3.59 per share and revenue of $39.16 billion, indicating a 1% decline in earnings year-over-year and an 8% increase in sales compared to the previous year [1] - The company's current market capitalization stands at $370 billion, with $160 billion in revenue, $22 billion in operating profit, and a net income of $15 billion over the last twelve months [2] - Historical data shows that Home Depot's stock has fallen 55% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median drop of 2.5% in one day and a maximum decline of 9% observed [1][2] Group 2 - Home Depot's business model is challenged by its reliance on global sourcing, particularly from China, Canada, and Mexico, which exposes it to trade interruptions and tariffs [2] - The company has recorded 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring roughly 45% of the time [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 1.7%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -2.5% [5] Group 3 - For event-driven traders, historical patterns can provide an advantage, allowing for preparation ahead of earnings or response to post-release movements [2] - A less risky approach involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying pairs with the highest correlation for trading strategies [3] - The performance of peers may influence Home Depot's post-earnings reaction, with pricing potentially beginning prior to the earnings announcement [6]