Steel worker at the blast furnace tap of the at the Salzgitter AG steelworks on March 02, 2020 in Salzgitter, Germany. Maja Hitij | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThe European Union's decision to hike steel tariffs and sharply cut import quotas has provoked widespread concern in the U.K., as well as rumblings of discontent among carmakers on the continent.The bloc announced plans on Tuesday to reduce tariff-free quotas on imported steel — proposing a reduction of 47% compared to 2024 steel quotas — and to ...

The European Union plans to double the duty on steel imports to 50%, matching the tariffs being levied in the US in an effort to preserve the 27-nation bloc’s heavy industry: Here's your Evening Briefing https://t.co/jYGeWvKgT1 ...

Trade Policy - Expanded steel and aluminum tariffs are just the beginning [1] - New levies are likely for sectors such as semiconductors, heavy trucks, and commercial aircraft [1]

Trade Policy Impact - The logistics industry was surprised by the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs to over 400 consumer goods containing these metals [1] - Affected consumer goods include items like motorcycles and tableware [1]

Market Trends - Iron ore and steel prices reached a four-month high [1] - China's mega dam plan in Tibet is expected to increase demand for iron ore and steel [1]

Tariffs - The company is announcing tariffs on pharmaceuticals, chips, and other big items [1] - Tariffs of 50% were imposed on steel and aluminum [1] - Lumber tariffs were recently announced [1] - The company is implementing a 50% tariff on copper [1]

Company Overview - Nucor is a large and diversified U.S. steelmaker that operates entirely on electric arc mini-mills, allowing for more flexibility compared to traditional blast-furnace technology [2][4] - The company produces steel and fabricated steel products, including building components and parts for the electrical grid, which helps in generating higher-margin products with sustainable demand [5] Industry Dynamics - The steel industry is cyclical, and Nucor's stock price tends to fluctuate significantly between periods of price increases and declines [6][12] - Currently, Nucor's stock is down over 45% from its early 2024 high, but historically, such declines are not unusual for the company [7][10] Investment Perspective - The recent stock price has seen an increase of around 8% from its April low, suggesting a potential inflection point, although it could also be a temporary price movement [9] - Long-term investment in Nucor should focus on buying during downturns when the market sentiment is negative, as this could present a good buying opportunity [12][13] - Nucor's management consistently reinvests in the business, particularly during downturns, to emerge stronger post-recession [10]

Group 1 - Lowe's is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 21, 2025, with anticipated earnings of $2.89 per share and revenue of $21.03 billion, reflecting a 6% decrease in earnings and a 2% decline in sales year-over-year [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $130 billion, with reported revenue of $84 billion, operating profit of $10 billion, and net income of $7 billion over the last twelve months [2] - Approximately 70% of Lowe's sales come from do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, whose demand has weakened, impacting the company's performance [2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that Lowe's stock has risen 55% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day gain of 1.7% and a maximum increase of 10% [1][5] - Over the past five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for Lowe's, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 55% of the time [5] - The correlation between short-term (1D) and medium-term (5D) returns post-earnings can provide a less risky trading strategy, especially if a strong correlation exists [3][4]

Group 1 - Home Depot is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 20, 2025, with anticipated earnings of $3.59 per share and revenue of $39.16 billion, indicating a 1% decline in earnings year-over-year and an 8% increase in sales compared to the previous year [1] - The company's current market capitalization stands at $370 billion, with $160 billion in revenue, $22 billion in operating profit, and a net income of $15 billion over the last twelve months [2] - Historical data shows that Home Depot's stock has fallen 55% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median drop of 2.5% in one day and a maximum decline of 9% observed [1][2] Group 2 - Home Depot's business model is challenged by its reliance on global sourcing, particularly from China, Canada, and Mexico, which exposes it to trade interruptions and tariffs [2] - The company has recorded 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring roughly 45% of the time [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 1.7%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -2.5% [5] Group 3 - For event-driven traders, historical patterns can provide an advantage, allowing for preparation ahead of earnings or response to post-release movements [2] - A less risky approach involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying pairs with the highest correlation for trading strategies [3] - The performance of peers may influence Home Depot's post-earnings reaction, with pricing potentially beginning prior to the earnings announcement [6]