本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 1 月 30 日 武田药品 4502 JP 本文内容由 Ryan Lee (李昊谦) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 日本医疗保健行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 更多潜力待释放 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 1 月 29 日发布的题为《More to come》 的报告，1 月 29 日，武田公布第三季度营收同比增长 4.2%，与市场一致预期相符。净利润同比激增 335.7%，因利 润率改善及非营运成本下降而超预期。公司预计自 2026 年起将有多款处于后期开发阶段的管线产品陆续上市。 1 月 29 日，武田公布 2026 财年第三季度营收达 1.192 万亿日元，同比增长 4.2%，与市场一致预期基本一致。净利 润同比激增 335.7%至 1,040 亿日元，超出市场预期，主要得益于毛利 ...

Management updated its full-year guidance by revising revenue expectations downward at constant exchange rates, citing stronger-than-anticipated Vyvanse generic erosion in the U.S. Furuta said Takeda is “revising only revenue guidance to low single-digit decline at CER,” while maintaining full-year guidance for core operating profit and core EPS due to ongoing operating expense discipline. Based on revised FX assumptions, Takeda forecast full-year revenue of JPY 4.53 trillion, core operating profit of JPY 1 ...

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (NYSE:TAK) Q3 2026 Earnings call January 29, 2026 05:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsAndrew Plump - President of Research & DevelopmentChristophe Weber - CEOChristopher O'Reilly - Head of Investor RelationsJulie Kim - CEO-electMilano Furuta - CFOConference Call ParticipantsHidemaru Yamaguchi - AnalystHiroyuki Matsubara - AnalystMike Nedelcovych - AnalystSeiji Wakao - AnalystShinichiro Muraoka - AnalystSteve Barker - AnalystTony Ren - AnalystChristopher O'ReillyThank you for taking ...

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (NYSE:TAK) Q3 2026 Earnings call January 29, 2026 05:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsAndrew Plump - President of Research & DevelopmentChristophe Weber - CEOChristopher O'Reilly - Head of Investor RelationsJulie Kim - CEO-electMilano Furuta - CFONone - Company RepresentativeConference Call ParticipantsHidemaru Yamaguchi - AnalystHiroyuki Matsubara - AnalystMike Nedelcovych - AnalystSeiji Wakao - AnalystShinichiro Muraoka - AnalystSteve Barker - AnalystTony Ren - AnalystChristopher ...

Core Insights - Protagonist Therapeutics is poised for significant growth and value creation over the next 12 to 24 months, driven by two potential blockbuster drug approvals and launches, multiple clinical readouts, new discovery programs, and a strong cash position [3] Company Overview - Protagonist Therapeutics is participating in the 44th JPMorgan Healthcare Conference for the sixth consecutive year, indicating its established presence in the biotech sector [2] - The company is focused on completing a decade-long journey from concept to commercialization with two specific assets: icotrokinra, partnered with Johnson & Johnson, and rusfertide, partnered with Takeda [3] Development Pipeline - The company is highlighting its development candidates that target validated biological pathways, with differentiated assets aimed at addressing specific unmet medical needs across multiple indications [4]

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (NYSE: TAK) - **Revenue**: $30 billion, with over 50% from the U.S. market, up from less than 20% a decade ago [2][3] - **R&D Investment**: Approximately $5 billion annually [3] - **Global Presence**: Operations in 80 countries, with headquarters in Tokyo and a significant hub in Boston [2][3] Core Focus Areas - **Innovation and Digital Transformation**: Takeda has shifted focus towards innovation and digital technology since 2014, moving all data to the cloud in 2018 [1][2] - **Therapy Areas**: Focus on gastroenterology, neuroscience, and oncology [3] Financial Performance and Strategy - **Generic Exposure**: Experienced a 20% revenue loss from 2021 over the past five years due to generic competition, but expects lower exposure moving forward [3] - **Product Portfolio**: Transitioned away from branded generics and OTC businesses to concentrate on innovative medicines [2][3] Upcoming Product Launches - **Pipeline**: Eight late-stage assets expected to launch before the end of the decade, with significant potential for revenue generation [5][19] - **Key Products**: - **Oveporexton**: First orexin agonist, expected launch in H2 2026, with peak revenue potential of $2-$3 billion [12][19] - **Rusfertide**: For polycythemia vera, also launching in H2 2026, with potential to transform standard care [13][19] - **Zasocitinib**: TYK2 inhibitor for psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis, with peak revenue potential of $3-$6 billion [18][19] Market Dynamics - **Oveporexton**: Addresses unmet needs in narcolepsy type 1, with a patient population of approximately 100,000 in the U.S. [11][12] - **Rusfertide**: Aims to replace phlebotomy in treatment, with 78% of patients currently uncontrolled [14][19] - **Zasocitinib**: Competes in a mature market, with a focus on creating a new oral treatment option [17][28] Oncology Pipeline - **TAC-928 and TAC-921**: New immuno-oncology assets with promising data, focusing on non-small cell lung cancer and gastric cancer respectively [6][7] - **Market Positioning**: Takeda aims to differentiate its oncology products through unique mechanisms and partnerships, particularly with Innovent in China [44] Leadership Transition - **CEO Transition**: Christophe will retire in June 2026, with Julie Kim set to succeed him, marking a significant leadership change [4][21] Challenges and Future Outlook - **Patent Cliffs**: Anticipated decline in revenue from Entyvio starting in 2030, necessitating successful launches of new products to offset losses [19][20] - **Investment Strategy**: Balancing investment in new product launches with margin commitments, while managing the transition from recent losses [45][46] Conclusion - Takeda is positioned for significant growth through its innovative pipeline and strategic focus on high-potential therapy areas, while navigating challenges related to market competition and patent expirations. The upcoming product launches are critical for sustaining revenue growth and maintaining market leadership.

Core Insights - Protagonist Therapeutics and Takeda announced new 52-week results from the Phase 3 VERIFY study, highlighting the efficacy and safety of rusfertide in treating polycythemia vera (PV) patients, with 61.9% of patients maintaining absence of phlebotomy eligibility from baseline to Week 52 [1][2] Efficacy and Safety - The 52-week data demonstrated sustained efficacy of rusfertide, significantly reducing the need for phlebotomy while maintaining hematocrit control [2] - 61.9% of patients treated with rusfertide maintained a durable clinical response, defined as absence of phlebotomy eligibility [4] - 84.1% of patients who had a clinical response in the Part 1a assessment maintained their response [4] - The median time to first phlebotomy was not reached in the rusfertide group, indicating effective treatment [4] Patient Outcomes - Patients treated with rusfertide reported improvements in quality of life, as measured by PROMIS Fatigue SF-8 and MFSAF TSS [4] - The mean hematocrit remained below 43% through Week 52 for patients treated with rusfertide [4] - Serious adverse events occurred in 8.1% of rusfertide-treated patients, indicating a generally well-tolerated safety profile [5] Long-term Study Insights - The THRIVE study showed a greater than 13-fold reduction in the estimated annual therapeutic phlebotomy rate compared to baseline, with a mean annualized phlebotomy rate dropping from 9.2 to 0.7 phlebotomies/year [6] - The THRIVE study is designed to assess the long-term durability of response and safety profile of rusfertide over an additional two-year treatment period [10] Regulatory and Development Status - Rusfertide has received Breakthrough Therapy Designation, Orphan Drug Designation, and Fast Track Designation from the FDA, indicating its potential as a significant treatment option for PV [7] - The Phase 3 VERIFY study is ongoing, evaluating rusfertide in 293 patients over a 156-week period [8]

Market Overview - The global Peptide Therapeutics Market was valued at USD 46.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 82.19 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.51% from 2025 to 2032 driven by demand for targeted medications in oncology, metabolic diseases, and infectious diseases [1][17]. U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. peptide therapeutics market was valued at USD 20.36 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 35.71 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.27% during the same period, supported by significant R&D expenditure and regulatory frameworks [2]. Technological Advancements - Innovations in peptide synthesis and drug delivery technologies, such as solid-phase peptide synthesis (SPPS) and liquid-phase peptide synthesis (LPPS), are enhancing manufacturing efficiency, purity, and scalability [4]. - Advances in delivery platforms, including sustained-release formulations and nanoparticles, are improving the stability and usability of peptide medications [4]. Market Challenges - High production costs and complex manufacturing processes pose challenges for the development of peptide therapeutics, as synthesis and purification require expensive equipment and high-purity reagents [5]. Market Segmentation By Application - The metabolic disorders segment held a 26.2% market share in 2024, driven by the prevalence of diseases like type 2 diabetes and obesity, while the pain segment is expected to grow at the highest CAGR due to rising chronic pain disorders [7]. By Therapeutics Type - The innovative segment dominated the market in 2024, reflecting the demand for high-activity and targeted treatment options [8]. By Type of Manufacturers - The in-house segment accounted for 65.25% of the market share in 2024, as major companies prefer control over the drug development process, while the outsourced segment is anticipated to grow at the highest CAGR [9]. By Route of Administration - The parenteral route led the market in 2024 due to poor oral bioavailability of most peptides, with alternative delivery methods expected to grow at the highest CAGR [10]. By Synthesis Technology - The recombinant DNA technology segment held a 64.3% market share in 2024, favored for its ability to produce long and sustained peptides of higher purity [11]. Regional Insights - North America dominated the peptide therapeutics market with a 58.1% share in 2024, attributed to advanced clinical trials and a developed pharmaceutical sector, while the Asia Pacific region is expected to grow significantly due to increased healthcare expenditure and chronic disease prevalence [12]. Key Companies - Major companies in the peptide therapeutics market include Eli Lilly and Company, Amgen Inc., Pfizer Inc., Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, AstraZeneca plc, and Sanofi S.A. [13][18].

Core Insights - Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. announced that clinical data on rusfertide in polycythemia vera will be presented at the 67th Annual American Society of Hematology (ASH) Annual Meeting [1] Presentation Details - The focus will be on the Phase 3 VERIFY study, which evaluates rusfertide compared to placebo plus current standard-of-care therapy for polycythemia vera [1] - The presenting author will be Dr. Andrew Kuykendall from Moffitt Cancer Center, with publication number 81 [1] - The oral session will be titled "Durability of response and safety results through week 52 from the randomized controlled phase 3 VERIFY study" [1]

Core Insights - Protagonist Therapeutics (PTGX) shares increased by 30% following reports of acquisition interest from Johnson & Johnson (J&J) [1] - Ongoing discussions between PTGX and J&J are noted, but specific deal terms remain undisclosed [1] - The potential acquisition is seen as a strategic move for J&J to offset declining sales from its drug Stelara [8] Company Overview - Protagonist Therapeutics is a clinical-stage company based in California, focusing on developing novel peptides [2] - The lead candidate, icotrokinra (JNJ-2113), is under FDA review for plaque psoriasis and is being developed for various immunology diseases [2] - PTGX has an existing partnership with J&J, which holds exclusive rights to develop icotrokinra in phase II studies and beyond [3] Financial Performance - Year-to-date, PTGX stock has surged by 125%, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 7% [4] Strategic Implications - J&J's interest in PTGX is driven by the need to compensate for a nearly 43% decline in Stelara sales due to generic competition [8] - The acquisition could enhance J&J's portfolio in immunology and hematology, diversifying revenue streams [9] Industry Context - The pharmaceutical sector continues to pursue strategic acquisitions despite macroeconomic challenges [11] - Recent notable transactions include Pfizer's $4.9 billion acquisition of Metsera and Roche's $3.5 billion acquisition of 89bio, indicating ongoing interest in innovative biotech assets [12][13][15]