Market Overview - US stock futures are holding onto gains after a drop of more than 2% last week for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, despite a rebound on Friday [1] - Bitcoin is back above $85,000 but has fallen from weekend highs, reflecting risk-off sentiment as investors question potential Fed interest rate cuts in December [2] - Upcoming PPI and retail sales data will provide insights into inflation and consumer state, while the White House plans to announce a framework to reduce healthcare costs this week [3][4] Retail Sector Insights - Airlines expect to carry over 31 million people during the Thanksgiving holiday, indicating a strong travel demand post-government shutdown [5] - Retail earnings reports are anticipated, with companies like Kohl's and Best Buy expected to perform better than previously thought, particularly in electronics sales [10][11] - Kohl's interim CEO Michael Bender is expected to be named permanent CEO, as the company struggles with negative same-store sales growth [15][16] Federal Reserve Commentary - Fed Governor Chris Waller supports a rate cut in December, citing a softening job market and potential downward revisions to the September jobs report [19][20] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins does not see a strong need for a rate cut, indicating possible dissent within the Fed [22] - Market sentiment shifted after New York Fed President John Williams suggested a near-term rate cut, impacting stock market expectations [23][24] Cryptocurrency Market - Institutional investors are currently sidelined, with ETF outflows in November reaching $3.5 billion, the highest since February [27] - The crypto market has seen a significant sell-off, with $1.3 trillion in market cap wiped out, representing a 31% decline [28] - MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases are being closely monitored, with expectations of further acquisitions following recent price declines [30] Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's stock is buoyed by CEO Elon Musk's announcement regarding the company's AI chip development, which is expected to enhance self-driving technology [32] - Novo Nordisk's Alzheimer's drug trial did not yield significant results, negatively impacting its stock as it faces competition in the GLP-1 market [34] - Oscar Health and Centene stocks are rising due to reports of a proposed two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies, which could stabilize health insurance premiums [35]

Group 1 - Novo Nordisk is perceived to be outperforming Eli Lilly, particularly following a recent conference in Vienna, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1][2] - Novo's recent data, both oral and injectable, has provided positive reinforcement, especially in the context of obesity treatments, while also considering factors like gastrointestinal side effects, medication adherence, and cost [2][3] - The company is diversifying its offerings to appeal to different patient segments, focusing on varying weight loss goals and tolerable side effects [3][4] Group 2 - Eli Lilly's Direct program allows for flexible dosing options, which is being positively received by patients who prefer lower doses for their weight loss goals [5] - There is ongoing research into combining drugs with additional treatments to mitigate muscle loss associated with significant fat loss, addressing concerns around sarcopenia [6]

Legal & Regulatory Actions - Novo Nordisk is expanding legal action to protect patents from unsafe, non-FDA approved semaglutide [1] - Novo Nordisk has filed 132 lawsuits in federal court regarding compounded GLP-1s [7] - The President sent letters to 17 large drug makers asking them to lower drug prices in the US [11] Company Performance & Strategy - Novo Nordisk significantly lowered its full-year guidance partly due to compounded GLP-1s [6] - Offboarding of consumers to branded drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy is occurring [4] - Pfizer beat earnings expectations due to strength across most of its drugs and vaccines [9] - Pfizer is planning to cut approximately $8 billion in costs [10] - Pfizer raised its full-year adjusted EPS due to cost-cutting and a lower tax rate [10] Market Dynamics & Competition - Compounding has been primarily focused on semaglutide, the main ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy [8] - Analysts are not expecting the compounding issue to be as significant for Eli Lilly as it is for Novo Nordisk [8] - Discussions between drug companies and the administration regarding drug prices are ongoing [12]

Market Opportunity - A $450 licensing fee oversight by Novo Nordisk opened a billion-dollar weight loss market opportunity in Canada [1] - Hims and Hers plans to expand to Canada in 2026, offering a generic semaglutide drug [3] - The semaglutide market in Canada generated $1.18 billion in revenue in 2024 and is estimated to reach $4 billion in the next decade [3] Patent and Regulatory Landscape - Novo Nordisk will lose its exclusive patent on semaglutide in Canada next January due to a missed licensing fee payment [1] - The patent could have lasted until 2032 if Novo Nordisk had maintained the annual fee payments [2] - The last fee payment was made in 2018, and Novo Nordisk received a notification in 2019 with a one-year deadline to pay [2] - Hims and Hers is working with an approved partner to comply with local laws and regulations in Canada [4] Company Statements - Novo Nordisk refutes the characterization of the patent lapse as a mistake, stating exclusivity ends as part of a drug's normal life cycle [4] - Hims and Hers expects to launch a semaglutide drug in Canada in 2026, though confirmation is pending [4]