Google teases a new Gemini-powered smart speaker, due out in spring 2026. https://t.co/vZaaEGC3iG ...

Goertek (002241 CH) Equity Research Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Goertek - **Industry**: Electronic Equipment & Instruments - **Market Cap**: CNY 122.69 billion (USD 17.25 billion) [8][18] Key Points Upgrade and Target Price - Goertek's rating has been upgraded from Reduce to Buy, with a new target price set at RMB 43.80, up from RMB 17.40, indicating a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current share price of RMB 35.14 [3][6][43]. Growth Drivers 1. **AI Glasses Market**: - The global AI glasses market is projected to grow significantly, reaching 5.5 million units by 2025, a 260% year-over-year increase, driven by new product launches from Meta and Xiaomi [3][22]. - Goertek is positioned as a key ODM for major brands, contributing to its growth in the smart hardware sector [22]. 2. **AirPods Market Share Recovery**: - Goertek is expected to recover its market share in AirPods production to 30% by 2025, up from below 30% in 2023-24, due to stronger-than-expected sales of AirPods Pro 3 and renewed partnerships with Apple [4][36]. 3. **New Business Opportunities**: - Goertek is exploring potential collaborations with OpenAI, which is entering the hardware market, potentially supplying components for smart speakers and other devices [5][25]. Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 100.95 billion in 2024 to CNY 135.17 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% [9][15]. - Net profit is projected to increase from CNY 2.67 billion in 2024 to CNY 5.49 billion by 2027, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from RMB 0.78 to RMB 1.58 over the same period [9][15]. Innovations and Acquisitions - Goertek showcased multiple optical waveguide solutions at the China International Optoelectronic Exposition (CIOE) 2025, enhancing its capabilities in AR/VR devices [23]. - The planned acquisition of Shanghai OminiLight aims to strengthen Goertek's position in micro-nano optical devices, crucial for AR and AI systems [24]. Market Position and Competitiveness - Goertek has established itself as a leading player in the AR/VR ODM market, with a market share of approximately 70% in global AI glasses ODM assembly [36]. - The company is also focusing on improving its gross profit margins through a better product mix, particularly with higher-margin AI glasses [38]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include uncertainty in AirPod orders, slower-than-expected growth in the AR/VR industry, and challenges in maintaining gross profit margins [49]. Conclusion - Goertek is positioned for significant growth driven by advancements in AI glasses, recovery in AirPods market share, and potential collaborations with emerging tech companies like OpenAI. The upgrade to Buy reflects confidence in the company's strategic direction and financial performance over the next few years [3][43].