Quantum computing risks are weighing on Bitcoin’s (BTC) relative valuation against gold, according to analyst Willy Woo. The development of quantum computing has spread concerns across the tech and financial sectors, as future breakthroughs could potentially undermine current encryption standards. Although such capabilities are not considered imminent, the long-term threat has raised questions about Bitcoin’s security model and how markets price that uncertainty. Has Quantum Computing Entered the Bitcoin ...

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has struggled since October when a wave of liquidations rattled investor confidence. On Feb. 5, it slipped below $63,000 and is down over 30% in the past three months. It has erased all the gains it made since President Donald Trump's election, when pro-crypto optimism ignited a spectacular 2025 rally. This year is a different story. Uncertainty rules in various forms, from crypto regulation to Bitcoin's long-term narrative and the broader economic outlook. If you've been looking for ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price trajectory is evolving, with predictions suggesting it could reach $250,000 by the end of 2026, driven by institutional demand and macroeconomic factors rather than traditional halving cycles [2][6][8]. Group 1: Price Predictions and Market Dynamics - Tom Lee's forecast includes a potential 35% rally within the first 30 days of the year, aiming to surpass Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000 [3]. - Lee's bullish scenario anticipates Bitcoin breaking its four-year cycle, driven by sustained ETF inflows and corporate treasury demand, potentially reaching $200,000 to $250,000 [16]. - The base case scenario projects Bitcoin prices between $100,000 and $170,000, reflecting a maturing asset with reduced volatility [17]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Future - The recent leverage reset, following the October 2025 crash that liquidated $19 billion in positions, is seen as a necessary step for sustainable growth [11]. - Government support, particularly from the Trump administration and the anticipated passage of the CLARITY Act, is expected to unlock institutional capital [12]. - The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is strengthening, with stablecoin issuers becoming significant buyers of gold, positioning Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency debasement [13]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Institutional Involvement - Lee believes the traditional halving cycle is losing its influence as institutional capital flows through ETFs and corporate treasuries accumulate [7]. - The end of quantitative tightening and a pivot towards rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in early 2026 could catalyze rallies across risk assets, benefiting Bitcoin [14]. - A bearish scenario suggests Bitcoin could fall to between $65,000 and $90,000 if institutional rebalancing leads to aggressive selling [18].

Market Overview - Bitcoin price is currently around $90,000, approximately 30% below its October high of $126,000, indicating a standoff between buyers and sellers [1][3] - The market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with Bitcoin trading in a narrow range for about 195 days, marking one of its longest periods of low volatility [3] Influencing Factors - Major Bitcoin mining firm BitRiver has indicated that prices may remain flat due to external factors such as tight interest rates and geopolitical tensions, which are driving investors towards safer assets like gold [1][5] - Institutional investors have withdrawn significant amounts from spot Bitcoin ETFs, with $1.37 billion leaving between January 6 and 9, contributing to the lack of price momentum [3] Historical Context - Historically, long periods of market stagnation for Bitcoin have preceded significant rallies, as seen in past cycles from 2013, 2017, and 2021 [4] - On-chain data suggests reduced panic selling and less forced liquidation, indicating a more patient market rather than one in collapse [6] Future Outlook - Some analysts maintain a bullish outlook, suggesting that Bitcoin could benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar or a return of institutional investments through spot Bitcoin ETFs [7] - A London-based crypto group predicts a strong price movement for Bitcoin later in 2026, although the current market conditions are not favorable for quick profits [7]

Market Overview - The broader cryptocurrency market is experiencing selling pressure, with Bitcoin price dropping 3% and falling below $90,000, contributing to over $450 million in liquidations on January 8 [1][2] - Major altcoins such as Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and Solana have seen declines between 4-8% [1] Market Capitalization and Trends - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased by approximately $97 billion in the last 24 hours, now around $3.08 trillion, indicating profit-taking behavior among traders [3] - If the selling pressure continues, the market may retest the support zone at $3.05 trillion [3] Sentiment Analysis - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped by 14 points in the last 24 hours, currently at 28, indicating a shift to the "fear" zone and reflecting increased volatility and weakening social sentiment [4] Bitcoin Price Dynamics - Bitcoin is trading under selling pressure, finding technical support near the $88,000 level, with a significant buy wall present [5] - Following the drop below $90,000, analysts suggest that Bitcoin may fill its next CME gap at $88,000 in the near term [5] Institutional Investment Trends - Spot Bitcoin ETFs are facing significant outflows, with $486 million withdrawn on January 7, led by Fidelity's FBTC with $247 million and BlackRock's IBIT with $130 million, indicating waning institutional sentiment [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is currently facing challenges, down over 7% for the year, trading at $87,000, but is predicted to rise by 75% to $150,000 by 2026 [1] Historical Performance - A 75% gain is not unprecedented for Bitcoin, which has historically shown strong performance, including a 36% gain in its worst bull market year (2015) and triple-digit percentage returns in seven years since 2012 [2] Future Predictions - The year 2026 may mirror 2019, when Bitcoin surged by 95% following a significant drop in 2018, driven by global economic uncertainty and increased institutional investor interest [3] Institutional Investment - Institutional investors are increasing their Bitcoin exposure through new spot Bitcoin ETFs, while global economic uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs and U.S. macroeconomic conditions, is a prevailing concern for investors [4] Bitcoin vs. Gold - For Bitcoin to regain traction as "digital gold," investor confidence in this narrative must be restored, as Bitcoin is currently down 7% while gold has increased by 73% [5][6] Price Recovery Potential - Despite dropping below $100,000, Bitcoin has the potential to rebound and reach $150,000 in 2026, with historical trends suggesting a recovery from down years [7] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin was once expected to follow the "debasement trade" trend, moving alongside precious metals like gold, but this correlation has not materialized in the current market [8]

Core Insights - The digital asset market experienced exceptional performance in 2025, with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs and a more constructive discourse surrounding crypto compared to the downturn of 2022-2023 [1] - CoinShares emphasizes that focusing solely on price action overlooks significant advancements in the digital asset industry [2] - Digital assets are increasingly integrated within the traditional financial system, enhancing core financial infrastructure rather than attempting to replace it [3] Industry Progress - The industry matured in 2025, shifting focus from speculative activities to protocols and applications that provide measurable real-world utility [4] - Practical integrations, such as Chainlink's role in connecting blockchain networks with established providers, are seen as more indicative of market evolution than speculative cycles [5] - Consumer-level applications like prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket and Kalshi) are achieving product-market fit, becoming operational and regulated [6] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, CoinShares suggests that adoption will be a more significant driver than macroeconomic catalysts, despite expectations for renewed liquidity from the Federal Reserve [7] - App-based retail savings products may start competing with bank deposits, while fintechs and banks expand services related to stablecoin settlement, custody, and trading [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged bear market, signaling the end of its three-year rally according to CryptoQuant's report [1][2] - Demand growth for Bitcoin has significantly slowed, indicating a transition into a bear market [2][3] - The cyclical behavior of Bitcoin is primarily influenced by demand growth rather than halving events or past price performance [3] Demand Dynamics - Buyer exhaustion could lead Bitcoin's price to drop as low as $56,000, which would represent the sharpest drawdown in a bear market on record [2] - The price surge in 2025 was driven by three main demand waves: spot ETF buyers, optimism surrounding a pro-crypto president, and digital asset treasury funders [5][6] - The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 attracted record flows from previously cautious investors [5] Market Influences - The influx of capital into Bitcoin was partly fueled by expectations surrounding President Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance [6] - Many public companies have adopted digital asset treasuries, purchasing cryptocurrencies to support their stock prices [6] - The report indicates that the majority of this cycle's incremental demand has already been realized, diminishing a key pillar of price support for Bitcoin [7] Price Movements - Bitcoin reached a record price of $126,080 per coin in October but faced significant losses due to fears of a renewed US-China trade war, resulting in a loss of $19 billion in open interest on crypto exchanges [7]

Key Points The S&P 500 is up 15%, and Bitcoin is down 5% year to date. Not since 2014 has the S&P 500 generated positive returns while Bitcoin generated negative returns. Analysts at Standard Chartered and Bernstein expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026, a forecast that implies 74% upside from its current price of $86,000. More institutional investors are adding Bitcoin to their portfolios due to the improving regulatory environment and the simplicity of spot Bitcoin ETFs. 10 stocks we like bette ...

According to Bloomberg, although Vanguard Group now allows clients to trade spot Bitcoin ETFs on its platform, its overall view of crypto has not changed. Vanguard’s global head of quantitative equity, John Ameriks, said Bitcoin is better viewed as a speculative collectible rather than a productive asset with long-term investment characteristics, citing its lack of income, compounding, and cash-flow properties, and likened it to a “digital Labubu.” https://t.co/pOExkphtxo ...