shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Tour takeaways - better, but not good enough shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 November 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistri ...

Hello. Welcome to Workday's Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will conduct a question and answer session towards the end of the call. During Q&A, please limit your questions to one. I will now hand it over to Justin Furby, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Furby, you may begin. Thank you, Operator. Welcome to Workday's Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings Conference Call. On the call, we have Carl Eschenbach, our CEO, Zane Rowe, our C ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 22 November 2024 | 3:37PM EST Energy, Utilities & Mining Pulse: Investors Asking: What Are Potential YTD Laggards to Leaders in 2025? | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | This week in the Pulse, we ask our senior analyst team to discuss stocks that are ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Completed: 22-Nov-24, 05:32 GMT Released: 22-Nov-24, 05:36 GMT Restricted - External Equity Research Equity Strategy 22 November 2024 Equity Market Review Trump guessing game The guessing game about how Trumponomics plays out will likely keep price action jittery into inauguration day. Ukraine headlines may get worse before any attempt to broker a ceasefire, but reconstruction may well start in 2025. Away from the Trump noise, we still see AI investment theme intact. Equity Mark ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Economic Outlook Summary North America Economic Research 22 November 2024 J P M O R G A N Carlton Strong (1-212) 834-5612 carlton.m.strong@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735 joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------|-----------------------------------|-----------|-----------|--------------|------------------------------------------ ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Latin America Equity Research 22 November 2024 J P M O R G A N www.jpmorganmarkets.com Enel Americas Investor Day Feedback: Focusing on Grids and Taking a Breather on Generation Our take: Neutral. We like the 61% increase in CAPEX for Grids and the decision to keep Dx in Brazil and Argentina, but leverage remains suboptimal. On Enel Americas' Investor Day, CEO Aurelio Bustilho, CFO Rafael de la Haza, and IR Jorge Gustavo presented the new strategic plan for the 2025-2027 period ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the outlook for Brent crude oil prices and market dynamics for 2025 and beyond [3][12][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Brent Oil Price Forecast**: - Brent oil prices are expected to average around $80 per barrel in 2024 but have recently declined to the low-to-mid $70s due to market confidence in a significant surplus in 2025 [3][12]. - The forecast for Brent in 2025 is an average of $76 per barrel, with a peak of $78 in June [24][75]. 2. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - A modest surplus of 0.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) is anticipated in 2025, driven by supply growth from the Americas and OPEC supply increases [5][24]. - The 2024 oil market is projected to have a deficit of 0.5 mb/d, primarily due to supply misses in Brazil and OPEC countries [12][14]. 3. **Price Range Expectations**: - The base case for Brent prices is set between $70 and $85 per barrel, with high spare capacity limiting price increases and the price elasticity of supply limiting downside risks [4][18][20]. - Short-term price risks are skewed to the upside, particularly if Iranian supply drops significantly due to sanctions [6][43]. 4. **Refining Market Outlook**: - Despite ample spare capacity in oil production, the refining market remains tight, with expectations for gasoline and diesel margins to recover further [8][57]. - Refining capacity is projected to increase by 0.45 mb/d annually from 2025 to 2027, slower than previous years due to closures and rationalizations [57][60]. 5. **Long-term Demand Growth**: - Oil demand is expected to grow for another decade, driven by rising energy demand in emerging markets and challenges in decarbonizing air travel and petrochemical products [65][66]. - The global demand growth is forecasted to pick up to 1.2 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from the US, China, and India [36][38]. 6. **Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs)**: - The rise of EVs is projected to peak oil demand in China by 2025, with a significant impact on global oil demand growth [70][72]. - The drag on oil demand from EVs is expected to increase, but recent sales trends indicate potential downside risks to EV adoption [70][73]. Other Important Insights - **Hedging Recommendations**: Oil producers are advised to hedge against modest downside risks using producer three-way options strategies [7][51]. - **Market Sentiment**: The current selloff in oil prices reflects a disconnect between market sentiment and actual supply-demand fundamentals, with a wide range of forecasts for 2025 [14][18]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply could lead to significant price spikes, with estimates suggesting Brent could rise to nearly $90 per barrel under certain scenarios [49][50]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the oil market's current state and future expectations.

Summary of Yongda (3669.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Yongda (3669.HK) - **Industry**: Automotive Dealerships, focusing on premium brands including BMW and Porsche [doc id='28'] Key Points Huawei Dealership Expansion - Management expects to open more than 10 Huawei-authorized stores by December 2024, with a target of 20-30 stores by the first half of 2025 [doc id='3'][doc id='4'] - 30-40 existing stores will be converted into Huawei-authorized stores throughout 2025, with 70% of these conversions coming from BBA dealerships [doc id='3'][doc id='25'] - The cost for converting a traditional BBA dealership into a Huawei store is approximately RMB 1 million per store, with a projected first-year ROI exceeding 10% [doc id='3'][doc id='20'] Sales Performance - FY24E sales volume for Huawei-related new cars is projected to reach 7-8k units, representing over 100% year-on-year growth [doc id='5'] - The gross profit margin (GPM) for new car sales remains stable at 4.5%, with additional contributions from delivery commissions and cross-sales services [doc id='5'] - The average net profit per shop for Huawei dealerships with an annual sales volume of 2k units is expected to exceed RMB 10 million [doc id='17'] After-Sales Revenue Growth - FY24E after-sales revenue is expected to grow 2.5 times year-on-year, with a notable 9.8% monthly compound growth rate from January to October 2024 [doc id='6'] - Average after-sales GPM is around 42%, which is higher than traditional luxury internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles [doc id='6'] Partnerships with Other NEV Brands - Partnerships with brands like XPeng and Nio are yielding positive results, with XPeng models generating deep order backlogs and Nio's after-sales service center achieving 70% month-on-month revenue growth in its first three months [doc id='7'] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of RMB 573 million for 2023, down 59% from the previous year, with projections of RMB 316 million for 2024 and RMB 691 million for 2025 [doc id='10'] - The expected total return for Yongda shares is 60.5%, with a target price of HK$2.98, indicating a potential upside of 52.8% from the current price of HK$1.95 [doc id='8'][doc id='30'] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include lower-than-expected revenues and gross profit margins for the passenger vehicle and after-sales businesses, as well as potential setbacks in the development of car rental and auto finance businesses [doc id='31] - Management expects the GPM for new car sales in the second half of 2024 to remain flat due to ongoing pricing pressures [doc id='15'] Market Outlook - Used car sales are projected to decline by 20% year-on-year to 80k units in FY24E, but are expected to grow by 21% in FY25E assuming price stabilization [doc id='16] - Management anticipates that Huawei's after-sales network will be fully established by the end of 2025, aiming for a service capacity comparable to major luxury brands [doc id='19] Conclusion Yongda is positioning itself for significant growth through its partnership with Huawei and expansion of its dealership network. Despite facing challenges in the used car market and pricing pressures, the company's strategic initiatives and partnerships are expected to drive future profitability and market share.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Advertising Outlook**: The 5th CMO Survey conducted by Citi indicates a more challenging outlook for global advertising, with a defensive shift in marketing priorities. China is the only market where growth expectations have improved since the last survey, while the US is viewed positively for the next 2-3 years [7][18]. Core Insights - **Marketing Budgets**: Expected to grow by 3.8% over the next 12 months and 6.1% over the next 2-3 years, reflecting a deterioration from previous surveys. The US is anticipated to be the fastest-growing region in the long term [8][19]. - **Digital Media Growth**: Digital media's share of the media mix is projected to increase from 47% to 54% in the next year and 60% in 2-3 years, indicating a significant shift towards digital platforms [9][19]. - **Focus Areas**: Key areas for growth include digital short-form video, Connected TV, Retail Media, and Influencer Marketing, with Instagram Reels and YouTube highlighted as effective channels [10][19]. Agency Dynamics - **Agency Importance**: Despite challenges, 61%-86% of CMOs consider using agencies as 'very important'. Agencies are well-positioned to help CMOs leverage first-party data, which is a top criterion for agency selection [11][19]. - **Defensive Positioning**: CMOs are shifting priorities towards shorter-duration marketing investments, indicating a more defensive approach in their strategies [12][19]. Stock Implications - **Positive Outlook for Digital Platforms**: The survey results are favorable for larger digital media platforms and support a constructive view on global agencies and IT services, while traditional media faces mixed implications [13][19]. - **Top Picks**: Recommended stocks include META, GOOGL, RDDT, TTD, APP, EXLS in the US, and WPP, PRX, CAP in Europe, along with Tencent (0700) in Asia-Pacific [14][19]. Company-Specific Insights - **PDD Holdings Inc**: Reported 3Q24 revenues of RMB 99.4 billion, a 44% year-over-year increase, but missed consensus estimates. Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 27.5 billion, 14.5% lower than expected, attributed to increased costs from merchant support programs [29][30]. - **iQIYI**: 3Q24 revenue was in line with expectations, but competition remains intense, leading to lower visibility for FY2025. The company is expected to maintain flat operating profit in 4Q24 [26][27]. - **Alibaba Group**: Announced the integration of its eCommerce platforms, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability in the medium to long term [28][29]. - **Wix**: Reported strong 3Q24 results with a positive outlook for 4Q24, driven by growth in bookings and agency partnerships. The company plans to release new AI products to further drive revenue [32][33]. Additional Notes - **Acquisitions and Partnerships**: Lagardère Publishing acquired Sterling Publishing, and Publicis Sapient announced a partnership with Google Cloud to enhance AI technology adoption [24][25]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment indicates a cautious but constructive outlook for agencies, with investor concerns about AI and digital channels being addressed through survey findings [20][21].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 www.jpmorganmarkets.com Mainland China/HK Property Marketing feedback from Mainland China - more conservative than expected We recently met with investors in Shanghai, Guangzhou & Shenzhen. General views on the Mainland Chinese property market are more conservative than we expected, with most investors expecting property sales to drop another 5-15% Y/Y in 2025 (although tier-1 cities may stabilize). Investors do not seem overly excited about inventory purchase as they do not thi ...