Kuaishou Technology Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services Key Points Financial Performance - **4Q24 Results**: Total revenue increased by 9% YoY, slightly below the market consensus estimate of 10% [3] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: Rose 8% YoY to Rmb4.7 billion, which was 2% better than market expectations [3] - **Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV)**: Increased by 14.4%, aligning with guidance [3] Revenue Breakdown - **Online Marketing Services**: Missed expectations by 1% due to traffic subsidies to small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) [3] - **Other Services**: Missed by 4%, but this was partially offset by a 2% beat in live-streaming revenue [3] AI and Kling Tool - **Kling Revenue Contribution**: Cumulative revenue from Kling since commercialization reached Rmb100 million [4] - **2025 Revenue Target for Kling**: Management aims for US$60 million (Rmb450 million) in revenue, which may negatively impact margins by 1-2 percentage points due to increased investment in AI-related capital expenditures and R&D [4] - **AI's Role**: AI is enhancing online marketing effectiveness and e-commerce business [4] 2025 Guidance - **Overall Revenue Growth Guidance**: Set at 13%, with specific targets of 14-15% for marketing, 19-20% for other services, and 3% for live streaming [4] - **Profit Guidance**: Expected profit for 2025 is Rmb20 billion, indicating a stable margin [4] - **1Q25 Outlook**: Expected to show a different revenue mix pattern, with weak marketing and strong live streaming, which is anticipated to reverse in 2Q25 [4] Valuation and Price Target - **New Price Target**: Increased from HK$48.00 to HK$58.00 [2] - **Valuation of Kling**: Estimated separately at US$1.5 billion based on a 25x EV/sales multiple, reflecting high-growth SaaS benchmarks [5] - **Current Valuation**: 2025 estimated P/E ratio is 12x, considered close to fair [5] Market Reaction - **Stock Rating**: Maintained at Equal-weight, with the industry view rated as Attractive [2] - **Market Cap**: Approximately Rmb233.38 billion [2] Additional Insights - **Management's Confidence**: Management believes Kling will be a significant growth driver, although it may take time to demonstrate its impact on Kuaishou's overall platform [2] - **Operational Metrics**: Average Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 736 million, reflecting a 5% YoY growth [11] Summary of Changes - **Revenue Forecasts**: Increased by 4.2% and 8.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, due to better-than-expected management guidance [13] - **Non-IFRS Diluted EPS**: Raised by 8.0% and 11.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [13] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, strategic initiatives, and market outlook for Kuaishou Technology as discussed in the conference call.

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese equities market**, with a cautious optimism regarding structural improvements and potential investment opportunities in the Asia Pacific region [6][8][17]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Structural Improvements**: There are multiple structural improvements in Chinese equities, leading to a cautiously optimistic outlook [6]. 2. **Earnings Performance**: MSCI China has recently experienced its first quarterly earnings beat after 13 consecutive quarters of misses, indicating a potential recovery in return on equity (ROE) [17]. 3. **ROE Recovery**: The ROE for MSCI China is expected to reach 12% by 2026, with a convergence towards MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) by 2027 [17][26]. 4. **Valuation Shift**: A structural shift in valuation is anticipated, with forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios expected to rise from the 8-10x range to at least 10-12x, improving the investability of Chinese equities [17]. 5. **Geopolitical Factors**: Improvements in geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding the Ukraine/Russia situation and US tariff policies, are contributing to a more favorable investment environment [17]. 6. **Technological Advancements**: Chinese firms are making significant technological breakthroughs, particularly in AI, which are expected to drive margin and ROE growth despite macroeconomic challenges [17][31]. 7. **Market Sentiment**: There is a resurgence of "animal spirits" in the market, with a focus on technology and economic growth as key priorities [29]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Sector Performance**: The earnings estimates for various sectors within MSCI China show significant growth potential, particularly in consumer discretionary and technology sectors, with expected EPS growth rates of 27% and 6% respectively for 2025 [37]. 2. **Consensus EPS Revisions**: Consensus earnings estimates have been on a downward revision path due to uncertain macro momentum, indicating a cautious approach among investors [33]. 3. **High-Quality Group Representation**: There is an increasing representation of high-quality, tech-focused companies in the offshore China equity universe, with a notable shift in index weightings from macro-correlated groups to high-quality shareholder return groups [22]. 4. **Capex Plans**: Companies like Alibaba are announcing significant capital expenditure plans focused on AI, with a projected investment of over RMB 380 billion over the next three years [29]. Conclusion The presentation highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook for Chinese equities, driven by structural improvements, technological advancements, and a potential recovery in earnings performance. Investors are encouraged to consider these factors when making investment decisions in the Asia Pacific region.

Summary of Precious Metals Daily Commodities Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the precious metals market, specifically gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices and trends as of March 25, 2025 [1][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Trends**: - Gold prices remained above USD 3,000/oz, with a PM fix at USD 3,025.20/oz. The market showed tight trading ranges, with resistance around USD 3,020/oz [3][1]. - A drop in consumer confidence, reported by the Conference Board, fell by 7.2 percentage points in March, contributing to a boost in gold prices [3][6]. 2. **Market Influences**: - The USD was mostly flat, which did not significantly impact gold prices until a later weakening of the dollar helped push prices slightly higher [3][6]. - Higher yields capped gold prices, indicating a complex relationship between interest rates and gold demand [3][6]. 3. **ETF Inflows**: - Significant gains were noted in ETFs, suggesting strong investor interest in gold despite underlying sluggish physical demand [3][9]. 4. **Silver Performance**: - Silver outperformed gold, attributed to ETF inflows, but there are concerns that it may quickly decline if gold's rally eases [3][10]. 5. **Platinum and Palladium**: - Platinum and palladium prices showed some upward movement, but uncertainty regarding potential US auto tariffs may limit further gains [3][10]. 6. **Federal Reserve Commentary**: - Mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with some suggesting only one cut this year instead of two. This stance may be gold-negative but could be tempered by inflation concerns [3][8]. 7. **Economic Data Sensitivity**: - Gold has been particularly sensitive to deteriorating economic data, with upcoming releases for durable goods orders and Q4 GDP expected to influence market sentiment [3][9]. 8. **Producer Selling**: - Increased selling by producers has been noted, which may impact future price movements as they step forward to sell forward [3][9]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes that while gold may remain supported by weak economic data, significant price movements may not occur until there is more clarity on tariff issues [3][9]. - The underlying demand for physical gold remains sluggish at high prices, but investor interest persists, particularly in ETFs [3][9]. - The report suggests that the current rally in silver is largely inspired by gold, and its sustainability is questionable given the sluggish industrial demand outside specific sectors [3][10].

Summary of the Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: IT Services in North America - **Growth Expectations**: IT Services growth expectations have slightly decelerated, with a headline growth rate of +2.6% year-over-year (y/y) in 2025, down from +2.8% in 4Q24 [1][2][8]. Key Insights - **CIO Survey Findings**: - The CIO survey indicates a bifurcation in growth expectations based on the timing of responses. - For respondents polled between February 10 and February 20, growth expectations increased by +23 basis points (bps) to +3.0% y/y, while those polled from February 21 to March 10 saw a decrease of (59) bps to +2.2% y/y [2][10][13]. - **Company-Specific Estimates**: - The estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp (CTSH) have been lowered in line with the CIO survey data, reflecting concerns over bookings not showing the expected acceleration. The organic growth estimate for CY25 has been revised down by (100 bps) to +2.4% y/y constant currency (cc) [2][3]. - **Market Reaction**: - Following Accenture's (ACN) earnings report on March 20, the stock experienced a decline of approximately (7)% due to cautious management commentary regarding bookings growth and macroeconomic uncertainties [3][6]. Additional Observations - **Defensibility of IT Projects**: - Digital Transformation has been identified as the fourth most defensive tech priority, indicating a shift in decision-making delays observed in early March. Strategic consulting remains the least defensive priority with a net score of -8%, although it has improved from -10% in the previous quarter [7][12]. - **Bookings Growth**: - Bookings growth in the February quarter was flat y/y cc, significantly below consensus estimates of +6% y/y reported growth. The uncertainty in the market is contributing to uneven bookings activity [6][8]. Conclusion - The IT Services sector is facing a cautious outlook with decelerating growth expectations and mixed signals from CIO surveys. Companies like CTSH are adjusting their forecasts in response to these trends, while market reactions to earnings reports reflect heightened sensitivity to management commentary on bookings and macroeconomic conditions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global economy and its potential growth drivers over the next decade, highlighting both challenges and opportunities. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Optimism Amidst Challenges** - Despite short- and long-term uncertainties, there are reasons for optimism regarding the global economy, driven by technological advancements and demographic shifts [2][3][4] 2. **Technological Progress** - Innovations in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), could significantly enhance productivity and reduce costs in various sectors, including food and energy [5][7][8][76][81] 3. **Demographic Shifts** - Fast-growing populations in emerging markets, especially in Asia, are expected to drive global demand growth, countering the effects of ageing populations in developed economies [9][51][52] 4. **Energy Transition** - The rapid increase in renewable energy capacity, particularly in China, is anticipated to lower energy costs and support the transition to sustainable power systems [31][35][36] 5. **Future Consumer Trends** - A rebound in consumer spending, particularly in luxury and beauty sectors, is expected as middle-class populations grow in emerging markets [8][51][61] 6. **Food Production Innovations** - Advances in agricultural technology, such as automated harvesting and data analytics, could improve food production efficiency and reduce prices over time [40][41][48][49] 7. **Digital Finance and Trade** - The digitization of payment systems and trade processes could streamline operations and enhance economic efficiency, potentially transforming global trade patterns [9][66] 8. **Global Growth Dynamics** - Emerging markets, particularly India and Indonesia, are projected to become significant contributors to global GDP growth, shifting the economic landscape away from traditional powerhouses [73][75] Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Climate Change Impact** - The report acknowledges the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and their economic implications, which could disrupt supply chains and affect food prices [13][15] 2. **Debt and Demographic Challenges** - Elevated debt levels and demographic issues are highlighted as significant risks to future growth, particularly in developed economies [17][18] 3. **Food Waste Reduction Potential** - The potential to reduce food waste through improved supply chain technologies could significantly impact food availability and prices, addressing global food security challenges [43][44][48] 4. **Consumer Behavior Shifts** - The report suggests that as incomes rise in emerging markets, consumer habits will evolve, leading to increased demand for discretionary goods and services [61][67] 5. **Technological Tipping Points** - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing technological tipping points that could lead to rapid changes in productivity and economic growth [20][36] This summary encapsulates the key insights and themes discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future growth prospects.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 24 March 2025 | 10:24PM GMT We continue to recommend balance in portfolios (OW equities and bonds, N commodities and cash, UW credit) and focus on diversification across and within assets. Given the recent increase in implied volatility, in particular for equities, we highlighted selective cross-asset option overlays based on relative value: put spreads on oil are an attractive hedge against lower global growth given the relative lower volatility (Exhibit 4). Selling risk-rev ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Indian economy and its potential resilience amid global economic challenges, particularly the risk of a US recession [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth and Resilience - India has shown robust growth historically, often independent of US economic performance, with GDP growth typically bottoming out before US contractions [2][7]. - The Indian economy is projected to recover, with GDP growth expected to trend around 6.5% for the coming year [5][24]. Impact of US Recession - The US accounts for approximately 19% of India's exports and 7% of its imports, but the impact of a US recession on India is expected to be limited due to the nature of India's export basket, which is dominated by necessities like generic pharmaceuticals [12][24]. - Adverse effects on discretionary sectors such as apparel and auto components are anticipated, but their overall impact on the Indian macroeconomic landscape is minimal [12][13]. Export Composition - India's exports are less reliant on discretionary spending in the US, with significant contributions from pharmaceuticals, IT services, jewelry, and petroleum, which are more resilient during economic downturns [3][12]. - The IT sector has already experienced a correction, with a 20% decline from peak values, and further downside risk is considered limited [13]. Foreign Investment and Flows - Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows have shown signs of fatigue, with $28 billion outflows since October, which is less severe compared to previous crises [4][25]. - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows are expected to remain stable, with historical resilience during economic downturns [30]. Commodity Prices and Inflation - A potential US recession could suppress commodity prices, benefiting India by reducing import bills and keeping inflation in check [4][33]. - The Indian rupee may also benefit from a weaker US dollar, which could facilitate rate cuts and further support economic recovery [40][41]. Remittances and Services - Remittances from the US to India may decline during a recession, but the impact is expected to be mitigated by the stability of software services exports and the relationship between remittances and the rupee exchange rate [16][22]. - Historical data indicates that remittances tend to recover within two quarters following a decline [16]. Market Sentiment and Recovery - The broader market has corrected by 10% from peaks, with sensitive sectors like IT and Autos down over 20%, suggesting that a recovery may be on the horizon as negative sentiment accumulates [4][5]. - The Nifty index is projected to reach a year-end target of 26,500, reflecting a positive outlook despite potential volatility [5]. Additional Important Insights - The correlation between India's economic performance and US economic cycles has weakened, suggesting that India may navigate a US recession without significant detriment [7][10]. - Historical patterns indicate that commodity prices are inversely related to US economic performance, which could provide India with a buffer during downturns [33][39]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting India's potential resilience and growth prospects amid global economic uncertainties.

Summary of ASEAN Internet Investor Presentation - March 2025 Industry Overview - The ASEAN Internet sector is expected to continue its profitable growth momentum into 2025, projecting over 20% revenue growth and improvements in margins and cash flows [1][6][7]. - The industry is anticipated to sustain growth momentum with GMV growth in the mid-teens and revenue growth exceeding 20% year-over-year [6][7]. Key Companies - **Sea Ltd (SE)**: Rated as Overweight (OW) with a price target of $167, current price at $126, indicating a 32% upside potential [8]. - **Grab Holdings (GRAB)**: Also rated as Overweight with a price target of $5.70, current price at $4.64, suggesting a 23% upside [8]. - **GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO)**: Rated Equal-Weight with a price target of IDR 91, current price at IDR 79, indicating a 15% upside [8]. Core Insights - 2024 was a pivotal year for ASEAN Internet companies, balancing growth and profitability effectively [6]. - Companies are expected to focus on top-line growth through strategic reinvestments to maintain or enhance market share [6][7]. - Competition remains intense, particularly in e-commerce and food delivery sectors, but there is a noted rationality in strategies among players [7]. Financial Performance - Positive adjusted EBITDA has been achieved, with expectations for continued margin upticks in 2025 [6][13]. - Grab's e-Grocery segment, GrabMart, is growing significantly faster than its food delivery service, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [17]. Market Dynamics - Recent discussions about a potential merger between Grab and GoTo could address poor unit economics in the on-demand services market [14]. - Regulatory challenges may arise, particularly in Singapore, but consolidation could lead to reduced marketing expenses and improved profitability [14]. Macro Factors - Slower GDP growth is expected in key ASEAN markets in 2025 compared to 2024, with concerns about stock market performance in Indonesia [7][14]. - The appreciation of the USD poses a headwind for SE and Grab in terms of reported financials [7]. Growth Drivers - The quick commerce market in ASEAN is projected to grow at a CAGR of over 20% from 2024 to 2030, with Grab's hybrid model showing strong performance [17]. - Advertising revenue as a percentage of GMV is increasing for both SE and Grab, indicating new revenue streams [17]. Indonesia Market Insights - Indonesia represents a significant portion of revenue for both SE and Grab, with SE's GMV from Indonesia around 33% and Grab's at 23% [23]. - Despite challenges, Grab's on-demand GMV in Indonesia grew 10% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024, reflecting a healthy marketplace [23]. Conclusion - The ASEAN Internet sector is poised for robust growth, driven by strategic reinvestments, new revenue streams, and potential consolidation among key players. However, macroeconomic factors and competitive dynamics will require careful navigation by companies in the region [6][7][14][17].

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha FICC Research Interest Rates 25 March 2025 Interest Rates Research Inflation-Linked Daily Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets. US breakevens and real yields rose on Monday, with most BEs from 1y to 10y up 3-5bp after accounting for carry. That said, when also adjusting for RBOB and the beta to nominals, most breakevens were only up 1bp at most. The latest tariff-related drama included a threat to apply 25% tariffs on any country that buys oi ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Global Pulp & Paper Equities Global pulp inventories – stable shipments with improved sentiment Removal of further 300kt of BHK: In March, Bracell announced its intention to continue to produce dissolving pulp (DP) for more than 70 days from May to July. This run is expected to remove close to another 300kt of BHK pulp from the market. Currently, the production line is producing DP until the last week of March, which is expected to reduce 350kt of BHK production vs the origin ...