Summary of the BRICS+ Payments System Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the evolving payments system among BRICS+ countries, focusing on the de-dollarization efforts and the development of independent payment infrastructures separate from US and Western systems [2][4][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **De-dollarization Debate**: The debate on the US dollar's reserve currency status is intensifying due to geopolitical fragmentation and the use of financial sanctions by the US and its allies [2][4]. 2. **BRICS+ Payment Sovereignty**: BRICS+ countries are pursuing 'payments sovereignty' by developing independent payment infrastructures, which are at various stages of discussion and implementation [4][11]. 3. **Challenges to Alternative Systems**: Geopolitical factors and divergent national objectives among emerging market countries pose significant challenges to establishing an alternative payments system, rather than technical barriers [4][8]. 4. **Multi-CBDC Platform**: The potential for a multi-Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) platform is highlighted, with several BRICS+ countries advancing their domestic digital payment infrastructures [4][9]. 5. **Role of Multilateral Institutions**: Institutions like the AIIB and NDB are seen as foundational for an alternative international financial system, although they currently lack sufficient liquidity support mechanisms [4][11]. 6. **SWIFT and CHIPS**: The document emphasizes the importance of SWIFT and CHIPS in the current global payments architecture, with the dollar accounting for nearly half of all SWIFT transactions [27][31]. 7. **BRICS+ Leaders Summit**: The upcoming BRICS+ leaders summit in Rio de Janeiro is expected to focus on trade, investment, and finance, but no major announcements regarding de-dollarization are anticipated [11][50]. Additional Important Content 1. **Historical Context**: BRICS countries have long opposed the existing international financial architecture, advocating for greater representation of emerging economies [6][38]. 2. **Geopolitical Dimensions**: The geopolitical landscape, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has intensified discussions around reducing reliance on the dollar [40][41]. 3. **Future Initiatives**: Various proposals for de-dollarization are being discussed, including a BRICS common currency and cross-border payment initiatives, though many remain in the proposal stage [51][54]. 4. **Political Will**: The main hurdle to establishing an alternative payments architecture is political will, as diverging objectives within BRICS+ countries complicate consensus [9][40]. 5. **US Response**: The US has expressed concern over BRICS+ de-dollarization efforts, with former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasizing the importance of protecting the dollar [47][48]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the BRICS+ payments system and the ongoing efforts towards de-dollarization, highlighting both the challenges and potential pathways forward.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: China Property Key Points on Sales Performance - Top 100 developers' contract sales declined by **21% YoY** in June 2025, worsening from **-10% in May 2025** due to: 1. Higher base in June 2024 from policy easing in mid-May 2024 2. Lack of policy easing support [2][6] - On a **MoM basis**, contract sales increased by **17%**, lower than the average **30%** from 2020 to 2024 [2][7] - In the first half of 2025, combined sales for top 100 developers fell by **11% YoY**, compared to **-8% YoY** in May 2025 [2][6] Performance of Luxury Projects - Demand for luxury projects remained strong, exemplified by Sunac's Shanghai One Central Park selling out in **2 hours**, significantly boosting Sunac's contract sales in June 2025 [2][6] Regional Developer Performance - Regional developers (e.g., Jinmao, C&D International, Yuexiu Property, Greentown China) outperformed the sector average, focusing on tier 1 and core tier 2 cities, benefiting from resilient luxury demand [2][6] Future Outlook - Expectations for top 100 contract sales to improve YoY in **3Q25** due to a lower base effect [2][6] Secondary Market Insights - As of June 25, 2025, secondary listings in **50 cities** increased by **9.5% YoY** and **8.6% YTD**; Tier-1 cities saw a **4.4% YoY** and **5.3% YTD** increase [3][9] - Secondary transaction volume for **12 cities** increased by **4% YoY** on a 30-day moving average, down from **7% in May 2025** [3][9] Implications for Property Listings - The rise in secondary listings is attributed to: 1. Slowing secondary transactions 2. Upgraders selling existing homes to purchase luxury new homes [3][9] Developer Performance Comparison - SOE developers' contract sales in June declined by **23% YoY**, similar to the **21% YoY** decline of top 100 developers; semi-SOE and POE developers saw declines of **33%** and **11%** respectively [4][25] - Current market shares: SOE developers at **58%**, POE developers at **31%** [4][25] Sales Data Highlights - Top 100 developers' combined gross contract sales value dropped by **21% YoY** in June, compared to **-10% YoY** in May [18][20] - The combined attributable contract sales GFA decreased by **35% YoY** in June, worsening from **-20% YoY** in May [13][20] Risks and Opportunities Downside Risks - Government policies restricting demand and mortgage lending - Tight financing conditions for developers - Lower-than-expected residential growth in China's economy [31] Upside Risks - Potential policy loosening that could boost residential property sales and prices - Large-scale asset disposals at fair prices by developers to ease liquidity pressures [31]

Summary of US Large Cap Pharmaceuticals: Mid-Year State Of Play Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US Large Cap Pharmaceuticals sector, analyzing key companies such as ABBV, LLY, JNJ, MRK, BMY, and PFE [6][5][32]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Revenue Growth and Stability**: Projected revenues from growth/stable products for 2025-2030 are as follows: ABBV at $10.39 billion, LLY at $3.06 billion, JNJ at $1.68 billion, MRK at $1.37 billion, BMY at $0.60 billion, and PFE at $0.54 billion [5]. 2. **Patent Cliff Exposure**: The number of years to the next major patent cliff varies, with ABBV and MRK at 3.5 years, while LLY and JNJ face longer timelines [5]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: The report indicates a "Launch Trade" momentum, with high investor psychology impacting stock performance, particularly for ABBV and GILD as popular longs, while MRK is viewed as a funding underweight [6]. 4. **Macro Environment**: A friendlier US macro backdrop with diminished recession risks and benign inflation data is noted, which could complicate the case for large-cap biopharma relative to other sectors [6]. 5. **Drug Pricing Uncertainty**: Ongoing debates regarding drug pricing and potential implementation of Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing are highlighted as significant uncertainties affecting investor sentiment [6]. 6. **Key Catalysts for 2H25**: Important upcoming catalysts include LLY's ATTAIN-1 data for an oral obesity pill, BMY's ADEPT-2 Phase 3 data for Alzheimer's treatment, and MRK's CADENCE trial outcomes [6]. Additional Important Considerations 1. **Tariff Implications**: The report discusses potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with an expected starting rate of 25% on transfer pricing, potentially dropping to around 10% based on negotiations [6]. 2. **Investor Positioning**: The healthcare sector is experiencing a positioning cleanse, with Medtech favored over large-cap biopharma [6]. 3. **Earnings Setup**: Investor sentiment is more comfortable with ABBV, PFE, and LLY, while concerns are raised regarding BMY's performance [6]. 4. **Government Exposure**: The report notes that government end-market exposure varies significantly among companies, with LLY and MRK having over 35% exposure to Medicare/Medicaid revenues [5]. Conclusion The US Large Cap Pharmaceuticals sector is navigating a complex landscape characterized by macroeconomic factors, regulatory uncertainties, and evolving investor sentiment. Key companies are positioned differently based on their revenue growth potential, patent cliff exposure, and government market dependencies. The upcoming catalysts and tariff implications will be critical in shaping the sector's performance in the second half of 2025.

Summary of Global Oil Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the global oil market, particularly the dynamics of oil prices, supply, and demand forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil. Key Points Oil Price Forecasts - The 2025 Brent price forecast has been raised marginally by $1/bbl to $67/bbl, with a forecast of $65 in 3Q25, reflecting a slight increase in risk premium [2][16][18] - Oil prices experienced significant volatility in 2Q25, fluctuating over a $20/bbl range due to tariff risks and geopolitical tensions [2][16] - The expectation is for Brent prices to drop to the low to mid-$60s in the near term, with a projected surplus in the oil market [7][37] Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ is expected to increase production, contributing to larger surpluses in the oil market over the next three quarters [3][19] - The unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary cuts is anticipated to add approximately 1.1Mb/d by the end of August, with actual increases likely falling short of targets due to compensation plans [19][55] - US shale production is projected to grow by 0.3Mb/d in 2025 and 0.1Mb/d in 2026, with rig activity trending lower [20][82] Demand Outlook - Global oil demand growth is now expected to be 0.8Mb/d in 2025, reflecting improved GDP growth prospects and resilient demand year-to-date [21][22] - The demand outlook has improved due to a more favorable impact from tariffs than initially feared [40] Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical risk premium has decreased following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with no significant impact on oil flows observed [66] - Renewed tensions in the Middle East could potentially lift Brent prices back into the $70/bbl range, but skepticism about supply disruptions remains [8][22] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in backwardation, indicating a rapid shift in sentiment rather than a fundamental loosening of the market [23] - The overall market balance is looser by 0.2Mb/d in 2025 and 0.1Mb/d in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, driven by rising OPEC+ supply [37] Upside and Downside Risks - Upside risks include firmer global economic growth and improved OPEC+ compliance, while downside risks involve a global economic slowdown and further OPEC+ production increases [32] Inventory Trends - Global oil inventories have been on an upward trend, with a continued build through 2Q25, indicating a growing surplus in the market [37][96] Additional Important Insights - The market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in oil demand, particularly in the Middle East, which could further impact prices [3] - The potential for higher Iranian exports exists, although US pressure on Iran appears less likely [4][66] - The overall sentiment suggests a bearish outlook for oil prices in the near term, with expectations of lower prices driving supply responses from US producers [7][37] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the global oil market, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, geopolitical factors, and market sentiment.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Inflation Trends**: Global headline inflation in May remained stable at 2%, marking four consecutive months at historically normal levels. Core inflation slightly decreased to 2.4%, still above pre-pandemic levels, primarily due to elevated services inflation [1][5][6]. Core Insights - **US Inflation Expectations**: Limited tariff-related increases have been observed in US inflation, but survey evidence indicates that inflationary pressures are expected to rise as tariff impacts materialize. The expectation is for US inflation to increase due to these pressures [1][5]. - **Global Economic Conditions**: Below-trend growth and low oil prices, despite geopolitical challenges, are anticipated to keep inflation in regions outside the US contained [1][5]. - **Expansion of Inflation Monitor**: The latest global inflation monitor has been expanded to include US import prices, providing a broader view of inflation dynamics [1][5]. Important Data Points - **Core Inflation Rates**: The core inflation rate for developed markets (DM) is at 2.4%, while emerging markets (EM) excluding China show a core inflation rate of 2.6% [1][5]. - **PPI Trends**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) for global DM is at -0.8%, while EM stands at 1.7%, indicating differing inflationary pressures across regions [1][5]. - **Services Inflation**: Services inflation remains high at 4.7% for DM, with EM ex-China at 2.8% [1][5]. Additional Insights - **US Import Prices**: The report highlights US import inflation, which is currently at 0.2% overall and 1.3% excluding food and fuels, indicating a nuanced view of import price pressures [1][28][29]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical landscape continues to influence inflation dynamics, particularly in relation to oil prices and trade tariffs [1][5]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of global inflation trends, with a specific focus on the US market. The insights into core inflation rates, PPI trends, and the impact of geopolitical factors are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and making informed investment decisions.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Japanese corporate sector**, focusing on the findings from the **June BOJ Tankan survey** regarding business sentiment and corporate earnings forecasts. Key Points and Arguments Impact of US Tariffs - The June BOJ Tankan indicates that **US tariffs have not significantly dampened corporate sentiment**, with a business conditions diffusion index (DI) for large manufacturers remaining steady at **13 points**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of **10 points** [1][4] - However, corporate earnings forecasts predict a **10% drag on net profit**, particularly affecting the **manufacturing sector**, especially **automobiles** and other processing industries [1][4] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - The FY2025 net profit growth forecast for large enterprises is revised to **-5.3%**, down from **-1.3%** in the March survey, aligning with the broader TSE Prime constituents' forecast of **-5.8%** [1][4] - **Manufacturers** lowered their profit growth forecast to **-9.8%**, while **non-manufacturers** raised theirs to **-0.8%** from **-2.0%** [1][4] Sales and Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers have increased their sales forecasts, with capex plans revised sharply upward to **+11.5% YoY** overall for large enterprises, driven by investments in **semiconductors**, **automation**, and **power transmission/distribution** [1][5] - Capex growth for manufacturers is projected at **+14.3%**, while non-manufacturers expect **+9.9%** [5] Foreign Exchange and Inflation Outlook - The corporate forex estimate for FY2025 is set at **¥145/$**, indicating a **4% YoY strengthening of the yen**, which is expected to negatively impact EPS by approximately **2 percentage points** [5][30] - The inflation outlook has slightly decreased, with companies expecting general prices to rise by **2.4%** in one year, down from **2.5%** previously [5][31] Sector-Specific Insights - Business conditions DI worsened in sectors more exposed to US tariffs, such as **automobiles** and **machinery**, while sectors like **materials** (paper & pulp, steel, oil & coal) and **construction** showed improvement [4][5] - The market consensus appears more cautious than company outlooks in sectors like **steel**, **services**, and **paper & pulp**, while being relatively optimistic for **electric & gas utilities**, **real estate**, and **communications** [4][5] Overall Corporate Sentiment - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic non-manufacturing sectors, which aligns with the investment strategy focusing on domestic demand sectors and potential upside in **semiconductors** and **machinery** [1][5] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the **limited impact of tariffs** on business conditions, with a flat DI for manufacturers and slight deterioration for non-manufacturers, which was in line with market expectations [4][5] - The report also notes that the **FY2025 TOPIX consensus EPS** has seen downward revisions in overseas demand sectors, particularly **automobiles**, which have been lowered by **18%** over the past three months, yet still shows a modest **+3.3% YoY profit growth forecast** as of end-June [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Japanese corporate sector and its outlook amidst external pressures.

July 1, 2025 09:52 AM GMT Multi-Industry | North America CoTD: Shifting Global Capex Trends Provide US Reshoring Evidence Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company events, or just ones that we find interesting. Exhibit 1: Change in Share of Global Capital Formation, 2023 vs 2018 bps (i.e., capex - building, machinery & infrastructure) - The US has taken ~200 bps share of global investment since 2018, snapping decades of share lo ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research July 2025 Asia Deep Dive: Akeso & Innovent China Healthcare Research Yang HuangAC, PhD (852) 2800 3812 yang.huang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Eric Zhao, CFA (86-21) 6106 6256 eric.zhao@jpmorgan.com SAC Registration Number: S1730524050001 J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited Derek Choi, CPA (852) 2800-8744 derek.c.choi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking ( ...

Scott Silver - Specialist Sales - European TMT AC (44-20) 7134-0412 scott.silver@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Europe Specialist Sales 01 July 2025 J P M O R G A N ASML Buyside Survey Hi, We are conducting a buyside survey of investor expectations ahead of results on Wed 16thof July. Let me know your thoughts and will share the results next week. Click here to take the survey. Best, Scott European Tech Hardware & Payments Sandeep Deshpande AC (44-20) 7134-5276 sandeep.s.deshpande@jpmorgan.com J.P. ...

Key Takeaways Geely Group revised its full-year volume guidance by 11% to 3mn units from 2.71mn units, with the upside largely from Geely Galaxy, which accounted for 39% of total sales volume and contributed ~85% of the YoY increment YTD. In 1H25, Geely brand (including Galaxy) sold 1.2mn units (+57% YoY), tracking ahead of its previous 2mn target, while ZEEKR Tech Group sold 245k units (+14% YoY) vs. its 710k full- year target. Meanwhile, 1H25 overseas sales of 184k units (-8% YoY) are tracking slightly be ...