USA | US Insights Equity Research March 15, 2025 What You Need to Know We are pleased to present a selection of our most insightful, best-read, and most-watched US content. This week, we share knowledge gained from more than 80 healthcare management teams who joined us in Miami at Biotech on the Bay. We expect new products from NVDA next week and provide a tech primer for investors. We update the strong earnings power we forecast for top picks EQH and IP, and see a more balanced risk/reward for PEP and SHW. ...

14 March 2025 | 2:23PM EDT Global Economics Wrap-Up: March 14, 2025 Global Economics o But we"nd no economicaly or staicly sgni"cant relaionship between AI exposure and job growth, unemployment, wages, and most Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Giovanni Pierdomenico +44(20)7051-6807 | giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Jessica Rindels +1(972)368-1516 | jessica.rind ...

Flash | 16 Mar 2025 15:21:05 ET │ 10 pages Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Certain products (not inconsistent with the author's published research) are ...

China (PRC) | China Consumer Consumption Stimulus Action Plan On 16 March, China announced a 'special action plan for stimulating consumption,' with 30 actions covering eight areas. A press conference is to be held at 3PM HK time on 17 March. Markets are likely expecting more concrete (and quantifiable) policies to be announced in due course, either by local or central govt. Event: A 'special action plan for stimulating consumption' was announced on 16 March. A) Action to increase income: 1) encourage reaso ...

14 March 2025 | 5:26PM EDT Americas Technology: Internet Online Dating - Analyzing the Industry Debates Exiting Q4'24 earnings, we look to frame key investor debates and the current state of operating dynamics for the Online Dating sector (covered companies include MTCH, BMBL and GRND). Within this report, we update our global addressable user market analysis to help address key investor debates on the level of saturation in online dating and the remaining secular growth opportunity in the category. Key tak ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the **Medical Device, Tools, and Diagnostics sectors** in China, the US, and Europe, highlighting the impact of policy issues, funding, consumer demand, and product cycles on companies in these industries [1][16]. Core Insights - **China MedTech Recovery**: The MedTech sector in China is expected to bottom out and gradually recover in 2025, with a focus on equipment value-based pricing (VBP) [16]. - **US MedTech Trends**: There is rising interest in key catalysts and policy rollouts that may stabilize the market, with expectations for the fourth quarter to show signs of improvement [16]. - **European MedTech Landscape**: Insights from the European market indicate a need for adaptation to changing regulations and consumer preferences [16]. - **Life Sciences Tools & Diagnostics**: The US Life Sciences Tools & Diagnostics sector is experiencing shifts in demand, with analysts noting the importance of innovation and market responsiveness [16]. Additional Important Points - **Investment Sentiment**: Investor feedback indicates a growing focus on key catalysts and the rollout of supportive policies, which could enhance market stability [16]. - **CapEx Trends**: There is a stabilization in hospital capital expenditures in China, suggesting a gradual improvement in the healthcare infrastructure [16]. - **Consumer Demand**: The discussions emphasized the importance of understanding consumer demand dynamics in shaping product offerings and market strategies [16]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the MedTech and diagnostics sectors across major markets, with a particular emphasis on the recovery trajectory in China and the evolving landscape in the US and Europe [1][16].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **China Industrial Tech**: Focus on data center supply chain with a positive outlook for companies like Kstar and Envicool, which have seen significant share price increases of 44% and 21% respectively since December 2024. The expected capital expenditure (capex) from internet customers is projected to increase by 75-100% in 2025E, with additional demand anticipated from telcos and enterprises due to AI applications [1][1][1]. Company-Specific Insights Kstar - Upgraded from Neutral to Buy due to expected revenue growth of 20% year-over-year (yoy) in 2025E/26E, supported by a better margin and return profile, despite a 33% valuation discount compared to peers [1][1][1]. Envicool - Reiterated Buy rating, benefiting from advancements in cooling technology [1][1][1]. Kehua and Jianghai - Downgraded from Buy to Neutral as the market may have overestimated their potential earnings and valuation upgrades [1][1][1]. Centre Testing - Identified as a potential beneficiary of productivity gains due to proactive adoption of AI technologies, with labor costs constituting over 50% of operational costs [1][1][1]. Greater China Tech Sector - **Semiconductors**: Positive outlook driven by advanced node technology, RISC V, and generative AI. Companies like AMEC and VeriSilicon upgraded to Buy due to strong demand and recovery in revenues [4][4][4]. Healthcare Sector Insights MedTech - The sector is stabilizing with expectations of a turnaround in 2025, driven by pent-up demand and stimulus measures. GEHC upgraded from Neutral to Buy based on these insights [6][6][6]. United Imaging and Mindray - United Imaging is expected to benefit from capex recovery, while Mindray faces potential revenue exposure risks due to regional value-based pricing (VBP) impacts [8][8][8]. JD.com - Healthy growth and profit outlook for 2025, with expectations of double-digit revenue growth in 1Q25 and high-single-digit growth for the fiscal year. The company is focusing on disciplined investments in on-demand retail and food delivery [12][12][12]. Nidec - Management expressed confidence in executing a profitability-focused growth strategy, with expectations of improved operating margins over the medium term [12][12][12]. NAURA - Announced acquisition of Kingsemi shares, which could lead to a 7% increase in revenues and a 4% increase in operating income for 2025E if control is achieved [15][15][15]. Other Notable Points - The Tokyo Stock Exchange is pushing for the elimination of parent-subsidiary listings, which could lead to significant returns for investors [5][5][5]. - The healthcare sector is experiencing increasing visibility on VBP policy direction, which is expected to lead to market consolidation and product upgrades [8][8][8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics within the China Industrial Tech, Greater China Tech, and Healthcare sectors, along with specific company performances and strategic outlooks.

Summary of Steel Dynamics Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Steel Dynamics (STLD) - **Industry**: Clean Tech / Metals & Mining Key Points and Arguments Demand Outlook & Tariff Implications - The discussion highlighted the impact of Trump's evolving trade policy, particularly the implementation of a 25% tariff under Section 232, which took effect on the day of the call. CFO Theresa Wagler expressed optimism regarding the removal of loopholes and exclusions in tariffs [4][4] - Industry participants are advised to monitor the widening import arbitrage, aligning with comments from peer Nucor [4][4] - Steel Dynamics shipped approximately 500,000 tons to Mexico last year, with the Sinton facility's location expected to benefit West Coast markets that historically relied on imports [4][4] - There were inquiries from Mexico-based auto OEMs about orders to meet USMCA 'melted & poured' standards [4][4] - Tariff-driven 'pre-buying' was downplayed, contrasting with commentary from peers like Nucor and metals distributor RS, though the extent of this trend remains unclear [4][4] - Demand for energy-related products, particularly tubing, and structural products is strong, with datacenter activity remaining robust and warehouse activity showing improvement [4][4] - Pricing is expected to reach a trough in Q1, with improvements anticipated for both pricing and shipments throughout the year, although Q2 margins may face pressure due to lagged input costs [4][4] Strategic Initiatives - The CFO noted recent tightness in UBC scrap markets could be "transitional," partly due to pre-buying for ADI [4][4] - Steel Dynamics has a significant scrap footprint and advancements in proprietary sorting technology to mitigate challenges [4][4] - ADI aims for over 90% recycled content in its packaging products and has exposure to Mexico through its Omnisource footprint, including a new satellite slab caster in Northcentral Mexico [4][4] - The Sinton facility is operating at over 90% melt utilization with a focus on ramping cold mill/value-add lines to achieve profitability in Q2 [4][4] - A biocarbon solution will be selectively implemented across the portfolio starting in Q2, replacing carbon-intensive anthracite [4][4] Capital Allocation - Steel Dynamics launched a ~$1 billion notes offering, including $600 million in 2035 notes (5.25%) and $400 million in 2055 notes (5.75%), with proceeds aimed at paying down lower-cost 2025 notes (2.40%) [4][4] - The CFO suggested that the $600 million incremental can provide a cash buffer amid evolving recession concerns and may fund early calls on remaining 2027 notes (4.65%) [4][4] - The company is experiencing easing capex needs, which, along with greater earnings power from ramping value-add lines, should support shareholder returns moving forward [4][5] Other Important Content - The report includes a neutral rating for Steel Dynamics with a price of $123.53 as of March 12, 2025 [4][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering potential conflicts of interest due to J.P. Morgan's business relationships with Steel Dynamics [3][3]

Summary of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) Primer and Company Impacts Industry Overview - The focus is on the Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology within the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of upcoming conferences (GTC and OFC) where major companies like Nvidia (NVDA) will showcase new technologies [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments CPO Technology and Market Dynamics - CPO technology is expected to dominate discussions in the coming weeks, particularly with Nvidia unveiling new switches featuring CPO options [2]. - Investor sentiment towards CPO has been negative for companies like Marvell (MRVL), Coherent (COHR), and Lumentum (LITE), but the actual impacts may not be as severe as perceived [2]. - The transition to CPO is seen as a long-term opportunity, particularly for Scale-Up configurations, which are expected to have a larger volume potential compared to Scale-Out configurations [3]. Company-Specific Impacts Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia is positioned as a leader in CPO due to its full system provider status, which allows for easier implementation of CPO compared to competitors [6]. - Upcoming products include the Quantum 3400 and Spectrum 5/6 switches, with initial volumes expected to be low [6][10]. - NVLink 6 is under consideration for CPO, which could expand the total addressable market (TAM) for optical providers [6]. Broadcom (AVGO) - Broadcom is well-positioned to benefit from the transition to CPO, maintaining a significant share in the ethernet-based switching market [7]. - The company has a roadmap for CPO-based xPU interconnects, with a target of 102.4T by 2028 [7]. Marvell (MRVL) - Marvell holds a dominant position in the DSP market but faces potential disruption from CPO technology [8]. - While Scale-Up presents an opportunity, the company may experience headwinds in Scale-Out as CPO adoption is expected to be gradual [8]. Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE) - Both companies face negative sentiment due to the potential loss of transceiver sales in CPO architectures, but they can still supply lasers, which have higher gross margins [9]. - The transition to CPO is seen as a TAM expansion for these companies, despite the challenges posed by Scale-Out [9]. Additional Important Insights - The CPO technology is driven by power and space constraints in data centers, with optical DSPs being less than 5% of the power envelope in typical racks [15]. - CPO offers significant power savings (up to 70% per link) compared to traditional pluggable modules, which is crucial as AI data centers continue to grow [22]. - The interconnect landscape is evolving from copper and optical-based pluggables to CPO, with the expectation that CPO will be the first step before moving to In-Package Optical I/O (OIO) [25][42]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is on the brink of a significant transition with CPO technology, which presents both opportunities and challenges for key players like Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell, Coherent, and Lumentum. The upcoming conferences will likely provide further insights into the adoption and impact of CPO technology on these companies and the industry as a whole.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, specifically oil demand and inventory trends as of March 12, 2025 Key Points Oil Demand Trends - Global oil demand has increased by 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd) as of March 11, 2025, amid economic concerns among American consumers [2] - Current global oil demand averages 102.2 mbd, which is 1.7 mbd higher year-over-year, exceeding projections by 60 thousand barrels per day (kbd) [5] - The U.S. is experiencing robust demand, with warmer weather forecasts expected to improve gasoline and jet fuel demand [5] - However, there are signs of economic uncertainty affecting consumer behavior, as major brands like Walmart and Amazon have reported softer demand [5] Inventory and Stock Changes - OECD total liquids stocks have drawn down by 1.1 mbd, with a net decline of 8 million barrels in visible OECD commercial oil stocks during the first week of March [3] - Crude oil stocks saw a build of 2 million barrels, while product stocks experienced a draw of 10 million barrels [3] Regional Insights - U.S. passenger volumes for March have decreased by 5% year-over-year, indicating a potential decline in travel demand [5] - In Asia, Chinese flights have returned to 104% of their 2019 levels post-New Year holidays, while flights in Asia excluding China have dipped below 100% for the first time in three months [5] - Europe is experiencing its highest flight activity since the pandemic, with volumes only 2.5% above 2019 levels [5] Economic Outlook - The likelihood of a recession in the U.S. has increased to 40%, which could lead to a contraction in oil demand by 700 kbd during recessionary periods [5] - Global oil consumption could decline by up to 1.3 mbd if a recession occurs [5] Regional Oil Consumption Statistics - India reported a year-over-year decline of 96 kbd in February, while France saw an increase of 48 kbd [20] - Thailand and Taiwan also reported changes in oil consumption, with Thailand showing a year-over-year increase of 26 kbd in January [20] Price Projections - The near-term price band for oil is projected to be between $70 and $80 per barrel, absent any policy shifts [5] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring consumer sentiment and economic indicators as they directly impact oil demand and pricing [5] - The data on regional oil consumption provides a nuanced view of how different economies are responding to current market conditions [20] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research call, focusing on oil demand, inventory changes, regional consumption statistics, and economic outlook.