更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 U.S. Machinery and Global Software Electrical & Global Software: How Shifting From Training To Inferencing Impacts Data Center Investment - Expert Takeaways Chad Dillard +1 212 969 1017 chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D. +1 212 756 1857 mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Miguel Marques, CFA +1 212 823 3907 miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA +1 212 969 1226 firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA +1 212 969 6559 shelly.tang@bern ...

We re-estimate economic exposures to critical import tariffs to account for global supply chains. While Korea is the Emerging Asian economy most vulnerable to auto tariffs, others could catch up in terms of overall exposure if tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals materialise. US President Donald Trump has provided an update on his plans to impose import tariffs on autos from all trade partners: "We are going to do that on around April 2."1 If so, this would be the second of the product-specific tar ...

J P M O R G A N 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Commodities Research 17 February 2025 Commodity Market Positioning & Flows See page 10 for analyst certification and important disclosures. www.jpmorganmarkets.com {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIM7mZxxDsxAx02hj0alK6B258vvpGfnQ4uw}]} Global commodity inflows support seasonally record high open interest value Global Commodities Research Tracey Allen (44-20) 7134-6732 tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Gregory C. Shearer (44-20) 7134-8161 gregory. ...

The most obvious upside risk to growth is a gain in productivity, and frequent readers of Morgan Stanley research will know we are bullish on AI. Indeed, the level of productivity is higher than pre-Covid levels, and some tentative estimates could point to faster growth as well. A cyclically tight labor market no doubt contributes, and there could be some measurement error. But gains from AI do appear to be happening faster than in prior tech cycles, so we can rule little out. In our year ahead outlook we p ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research 17 February 2025 China Metals Activity Tracker Copper & Iron Ore at 4 month highs as China activity returns post New Year. China steel output is at strongest since 2021. Copper, aluminium & zinc inventories are at >5-year lows. We present our high frequency inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper, aluminium and zinc in China, for the week ended 14 February, the second week of China activity post Lunar New Year. Normal seasonality typic ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 Global Research Asia Semiconductors Mid/Small Cap Semis: AI theme remains intact; revisiting design service Equities Asia Semiconductors Haas Liu Analyst haas.liu@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7348 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuinu9 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 | 10:01AM HKT GC Tech: Introducing TAM forecast for China vehicle cams; ADAS/AD to drive vehicle camera shipment growth and specification upgrades We expect vehicle camera shipments in China to reach 126m in 2025E and increase to 343m in 2030E, or a +22% CAGR, driven by the smart driving trend, and the technology feature could enhance driving safety, reducing the burden on drivers, and provide product differentiation to attract buyers. The smart driving trend is ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 New narrative 2: Synergies between DeepSeek and China's spark of innovation Domestic LLM DeepSeek has again piqued global investor interest in Chinese innovation. We expect China's capital markets to play a bigger role in supporting technological innovation and industrial transformation/upgrades. The broader tech sector's share of overall A-share market capitalisation has risen over the past decade to reach 21% to date. We note that sectors more correlated wi ...

Summary of Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot (February 17, 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil market, highlighting the mixed updates from various agencies regarding supply and demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Key Points Supply Forecasts - The EIA raised non-OPEC+ supply growth for 2025 by 0.13Mb/d to 1.54Mb/d and for 2026 by 0.15Mb/d to 1.02Mb/d, driven by higher US supply [4][48] - The IEA cut its non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast for 2025 by 40kb/d to 1.43Mb/d, while OPEC revised it down by 60kb/d for 2025 and 0.1Mb/d for 2026, both to ~1Mb/d [4][48] - Overall, the EIA's outlook for non-OPEC+ supply in 2025 is the most optimistic at 55.0Mb/d, compared to IEA's 54.5Mb/d and OPEC's 54.2Mb/d [43] Demand Forecasts - Demand growth forecasts for 2025 were mixed: IEA raised its forecast to 1.1Mb/d, EIA to 1.36Mb/d, while OPEC remained unchanged at 1.45Mb/d [3] - UBS raised its demand growth forecast for 2025 by 70kb/d to 1.19Mb/d, citing a lower base effect from 2024 [59] - For 2026, both EIA and OPEC kept their forecasts virtually unchanged at 1.05Mb/d and 1.43Mb/d respectively [3] Market Balance - The UBS model suggests a tightly balanced market for 2025 with a slight surplus of 0.31Mb/d due to higher US supply [59] - The IEA's balance for 2025 is now broadly in line with the EIA's, with a surplus forecast of 0.45Mb/d [23] - The EIA's bearish update for 2026 indicates a larger surplus of 0.98Mb/d, reflecting upward revisions to non-OPEC+ supply [23] Price Scenarios - The report anticipates Brent prices to remain in the mid-$70s, supported by OPEC+ cuts, but warns of potential negative impacts from slower GDP growth and substitution effects [9] - Upside price scenarios could see Brent prices rise towards $80/bbl if Iranian production drops or if OPEC+ compliance improves [11] - Conversely, a downside scenario could see prices drop into the $60s due to a global economic slowdown and increased supply from OPEC+ [12] Geopolitical Factors - The start of the second Trump presidency has heightened uncertainties in the oil market, particularly regarding Iranian and Russian supply [2] - OPEC+ is expected to postpone the unwind of production cuts, currently scheduled to start in April [5] Long-term Outlook - Global oil demand is expected to peak at 106.0Mb/d in 2029 before gradually declining, influenced by rising efficiency and the impact of electric vehicles [61] - The report notes that gasoline demand may decline over time due to increased EV uptake, which could replace 3.6Mb/d of oil for passenger vehicles globally by 2030 [66] Additional Insights - The IEA reported no missing barrels in its February OMR, but noted an overall missing barrels calculation of 0.2Mb/d for 2024, indicating potential underestimation of demand or overestimation of supply [27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and their potential impact on oil supply and prices [59]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Asia Pacific Equity Research 17 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Healthcare Takeaways from JPM's China Opportunities Forum We attended JPM's China Opportunities Forum in Shenzhen on February 13- ...