Abacus Global Management (ABL) Conference January 22, 2025 01:00 PM ET Company Participants Robert Phillips - SVP, Investor Relations & Corporate AffairsDavid Jackson - IR Associate - Capital Markets Operator Right at the bottom of your screen. Feel free to type in any questions throughout the presentation and we can save time for Q and A at the end. But with that said, I'll pass it over to Rob. Robert Phillips Brandon, thanks very much. And thanks, everybody, for joining us. Really look forward to discussi ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: Esperion Therapeutics - **Industry**: Cardiovascular Disease Treatment, specifically focusing on lipid-lowering therapies Key Points and Arguments 1. **Unmet Need in Cardiovascular Disease**: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death globally, with 44% of US adults affected. Over half of these patients do not meet LDL-C goals, and 30% may be unable or unwilling to take statins [7][8][9]. 2. **Clinical Development of Bempedoic Acid**: Esperion's clinical trials for bempedoic acid focused on patients with unmet needs, including those with statin intolerance and primary prevention patients. The trials included a combination of bempedoic acid with low-dose statins and a fixed combination with Ezetimibe [8][10][11]. 3. **Phase Three Trials**: Five placebo-controlled Phase Three trials demonstrated significant reductions in LDL cholesterol and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) across various patient populations, including those with cardiovascular disease and statin intolerance [11][12][13]. 4. **Clear Outcomes Study**: This unique trial validated that bempedoic acid reduces cardiovascular risk by lowering LDL cholesterol. It included both primary and secondary prevention patients and showed a 13% relative risk reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) [12][13][14]. 5. **Safety Profile**: Bempedoic acid was generally well tolerated, with a safety profile similar to placebo. Myalgia was the most common side effect, but the incidence was lower than with statins [22][23]. 6. **Market Positioning**: Bempedoic acid is the only non-statin FDA-approved drug with data in primary prevention patients, addressing a significant unmet need in cardiovascular risk reduction [25][26]. 7. **Real-World Experience**: Doctor Moriarty emphasized the importance of early intervention in atherosclerosis and noted that bempedoic acid has been effective in managing patients with statin intolerance, achieving up to a 40% reduction in LDL [50][52]. 8. **Patient Preferences**: There is a strong preference among patients for oral therapies over injectables due to convenience and cost considerations [55][56]. 9. **Future Directions**: The potential for combining bempedoic acid with statins and other therapies is being explored, with ongoing studies to assess the efficacy of triple combination therapies [86][90]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Educational Gaps**: There is a lack of awareness among some healthcare providers regarding the benefits and availability of bempedoic acid, which may hinder its adoption [96][97]. 2. **Inflammation and Cardiovascular Risk**: The discussion highlighted the importance of addressing inflammation in cardiovascular disease, with bempedoic acid showing promise in lowering inflammatory markers like hsCRP and RDW [46][48][49]. 3. **Cost Considerations**: The cost of therapies remains a significant factor in prescribing practices, with generics being preferred due to their affordability [76][90]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on the clinical development, market positioning, and real-world application of bempedoic acid in treating cardiovascular disease.

Industry/Company * **Company**: The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE: SCHW) * **Industry**: Investment Banking, Financial Services Core Points and Arguments * **2024 Q3 Results**: Schwab reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2024, with revenue up 5% year-over-year to $4.8 billion, adjusted pre-tax income up 5%, and adjusted EPS of $0.77. * **Client Growth**: Schwab experienced strong client growth, with net new assets more than doubling from the third quarter of 2023. Former Ameritrade clients continued to contribute positively to net new assets. * **Strategic Focus Areas**: Schwab outlined four strategic focus areas: Scale & Efficiency, Win-Win Monetization, Client Segmentation, and the Brilliant Basics. Progress was made in each area during the third quarter. * **Cost Efficiency**: Schwab captured 95% of its Ameritrade run rate expense synergies and expects to capture the rest by the end of the year. Adjusted expense on client assets (EOCA) fell to 12 basis points in 2024, down from 16 in 2019. * **Wealth Management**: Schwab saw strong growth in managed investing net flows, with year-to-date managed investing net flows up 65% compared to last year. Clients added $11.5 billion to Schwab's full-service wealth offers in the third quarter, a 75% increase from the prior year quarter. * **Pledged Asset Line (PAL)**: PAL balances reached a record $15.7 billion, an increase of 16% over last year. Former Ameritrade clients represented 44% of PAL balance growth. * **RIA Services**: Schwab continues to invest in its custody business for RIAs, providing them with an open architecture platform and unmatched resources, services, and education. * **Client Experience**: Schwab focused on improving the client experience, with average speed to answer the phone less than 40 seconds in the third quarter and client easy scores for service teams at 92%. * **Capital Levels**: Schwab's adjusted Tier 1 Leverage ratio expanded by over 70 basis points to 6.7% in the third quarter, approaching its 6.75% to 7% operating objective. Other Important Points * **Transition**: Walt Bettinger, Co-Chairman and CEO, will transition into his new role as Executive Co-Chairman, and Rick Wurster will assume the role of CEO in January 2025. * **CFO Transition**: Mike Verdeschi joined Schwab as CFO in May 2024 and provided an update on the company's financial performance and outlook. * **Securities Portfolio**: Schwab does not plan to pursue a holistic restructuring of its securities portfolio at this time, as it focuses on paying down supplemental funding at the banks. * **Capital Allocation**: Schwab's capital allocation strategy will focus on supporting business growth, paying down supplemental borrowings, and returning capital to shareholders through various means, including dividends, preferred security redemptions, and stock buybacks. * **2025 Outlook**: Schwab expects to continue building momentum in 2025, with revenue growth in the mid-single digits and adjusted EPS in the upper 80s range. The company remains confident in its ability to deliver profitable growth and return capital to shareholders.

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Semiconductor and EDA (Electronic Design Automation) * **Company**: Synopsys, a leading provider of semiconductor and software solutions Key Points and Arguments * **Record Revenue and Profitability**: Synopsys achieved record revenue of $6.13 billion in FY24, up 15% year-over-year, with double-digit growth across all products and geographies. Non-GAAP operating margin reached 38.5%, and non-GAAP EPS grew 25% year-over-year. * **Strategic Focus on Growth Segments**: Synopsys sold its software integrity business and is acquiring Ansys, doubling down on its silicon to systems strategy and expanding into new adjacent areas. * **Megatrends Driving Growth**: Synopsys benefits from secular growth drivers such as AI, silicon proliferation, and software-defined systems. The company's success is tied to technology innovation cycles, particularly in AI and HPC chip design. * **AI and EDA**: Synopsys has been a pioneer in adding AI optimization engines to its products, with solutions like DSO.ai and VSO.ai delivering significant customer results. The company is also integrating generative AI into its platform, expanding the capabilities of Synopsys.ai. * **Multi-Die Designs**: Synopsys is actively involved in Multi-Die design, partnering with ecosystem leaders like TSMC to improve predictability and yield. The company's 3DIC Compiler and Synopsys.ai solutions are addressing thermal and power integrity challenges for CoWoS interposer packaging. * **Strong Segment Performance**: * **Design Automation**: Revenue grew 12% year-over-year, driven by strength in EDA software and hardware. The Fusion compiler and Synopsys.ai solutions contributed to this growth. * **Design IP**: Revenue grew 24% year-over-year, driven by broad-based strength. The company achieved significant design wins in PCIe 6, security integrity, and data encryption. * **Hardware**: Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, driven by exceptional momentum on both HAPS and ZeBu product lines. * **Financial Guidance**: Synopsys expects to grow revenue 10.1% to 11.1% in FY25, excluding the impact of the extra week and calendar year change. Non-GAAP operating margin is expected to expand by approximately 150 basis points, and non-GAAP EPS is expected to grow by approximately 13%. Other Important Points * **Regulatory Review**: The regulatory review process for the Ansys acquisition is proceeding as expected, with the HSR waiting period expiring and the FTC investigation ongoing. * **Backlog**: Synopsys ended the year with a non-cancelable backlog of $8.1 billion. * **Macroeconomic Uncertainties**: Synopsys is taking a balanced view of the macroeconomic environment, considering factors such as market dynamics, macro uncertainties, and the impact of the Ansys acquisition. * **China**: Synopsys is taking a cautious approach to China, considering the deceleration in revenue growth and the expansion of restrictions. The company expects China to grow in line with the corporate average in FY25.

Key Points Industry/Company * **Company**: Polestar * **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing Core Views and Arguments * **Q2 2024 Results**: * **Vehicle Sales**: Increased by over 80% to 13,150 cars. * **Revenue**: Increased by nearly 70% to $575 million. * **Gross Result**: Negative at $4 million, driven by higher discounts on Polestar 2 and initial deliveries of Polestar 3. * **Operating Loss**: Increased by $18 million to $242 million. * **Cash Flow**: $669 million of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period. * **Investing Cash Outflow**: $354 million, in line with plans. * **Financing Cash Inflow**: Net increase of $441 million. * **Outlook**: * **Volume Growth**: Expected in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter. * **Gross Margin**: Aim to achieve double-digit growth margin by the end of the year. * **Capital Needs**: No immediate need for additional capital, but looking forward to more equity injections. * **Recent Business Developments**: * **Polestar 3 Production**: Started in South Carolina, making it the first Polestar manufactured on two continents. * **Polestar 4 Deliveries**: Started in Europe and expected to ramp up in the U.S. * **Sales Model**: Focus on maximizing the value and efficiency of the existing distribution footprint and expanding into new markets. Other Important Points * **Cost Reductions**: * **COGS**: Reduced by 14% sequentially. * **Battery Prices**: Continuously reducing. * **Cost Management Actions**: Implemented in mid-2023 and early 2024. * **Working Capital**: * **Inventory Drawdown**: Released $300 million, mostly inventory. * **Trade Financing**: Largely undrawn and ready to deploy. * **Tariffs**: * **U.S. Tariffs**: 27.5% currently in place, with potential for an increase to above 102%. * **European Union Tariffs**: 10% currently in place, with potential for an increase to 19.3%. * **Mitigation Strategies**: Working with partners and suppliers to reduce costs and exploring options to avoid or defer tariffs. References * [doc id='1'] * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='3'] * [doc id='4'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6']

**Summary**: This document provides an in-depth analysis of the Chinese automotive industry, focusing on key trends, forecasts, and investment opportunities. It covers various segments, including EVs, traditional OEMs, supply chains, dealerships, and OEM reforms. The report highlights the following key points: **1. EV Market Growth**: * China's EV market is expected to grow significantly, with wholesales reaching 28.3 million units in 2025. * Local brands are gaining market share, with a projected 70% market share in 2025. * PHEVs are becoming increasingly popular, with a projected 48% mix in 2025. * Global OEMs are losing market share due to intense competition and price wars. **2. Traditional OEMs**: * Geely is preferred due to its strong EV lineup and exposure to replacement demand. * SAIC and GAC are facing challenges, but reforms and partnerships could improve their prospects. * SOE OEM reforms are expected to gain momentum, with potential for improved profitability and efficiency. **3. Supply Chain**: * Smart driving technology is gaining traction, benefiting hardware providers like Horizon Robotics. * China suppliers are expanding overseas, driven by global EV supply chain decoupling. * Hesai is downgraded to Equal-weight due to its significant rally since November 2024. **4. Dealerships**: * Dealerships are shifting from global luxury brands to Chinese EVs. * Zhongsheng is preferred due to its strong bargaining power and customer base. * Yongda and Meidong are downgraded to Equal-weight due to their exposure to luxury brands and potential for margin pressure. **5. OEM Reforms**: * SAIC and GAC are undergoing reforms to improve efficiency and profitability. * Chang'an is a successful example of SOE reform. * SAIC and GAC H-share are preferred due to their unique advantages. **Investment Opportunities**: * **EVs**: XPeng, ZEEKR, Li Auto, and NIO are expected to benefit from significant operating leverage and potential profit turnaround. * **Traditional OEMs**: Geely is preferred due to its strong EV lineup and exposure to replacement demand. * **SOE OEM Reforms**: Chang'an, SAIC, and GAC H-share are preferred due to their potential for improved profitability and efficiency. * **Supply Chain**: Horizon Robotics is preferred due to its strong ADAS solutions and market position. * **Dealerships**: Zhongsheng is preferred due to its strong bargaining power and customer base. **Conclusion**: The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing significant transformation, driven by the rapid growth of EVs and technological advancements. This presents both challenges and opportunities for various stakeholders. Understanding the key trends and investment opportunities is crucial for navigating this dynamic landscape.

Key Points **Industry/Company Involved**: - SK Hynix (000660.KS) **Core Views and Evidence**: - **4Q24E Earnings Outlook**: SK Hynix is expected to report better-than-expected 4Q24E operating profit (OP) of +W8.3tr, driven by robust HBM3E demand growth and a 4Q DRAM ASP increase of +9% QoQ. [doc id='1'] - **DRAM ASP Growth**: Despite a projected deceleration in overall DRAM industry ASP growth to -7% QoQ in 1Q25E, Hynix's DRAM ASP is expected to remain intact, with flat growth in 1Q25E. [doc id='3'] - **HBM3E & HBM4 Leadership**: Hynix is expected to maintain its leadership in the HBM market due to its 1bnm and advanced MR-MUF technology in HBM3E & HBM4 for high-end AI applications. [doc id='1'] - **2025E Outlook**: SK Hynix's 2025E OP is forecasted to be W39.4tr, higher than the market consensus of W31.8tr, driven by a HBM mix exceeding 50% of total DRAM revenue. [doc id='4'] - **Strategic Decision**: Hynix's decision to use 1bnm & advanced MR-MUF technology for HBM4 will solidify its HBM dominance and expedite the launch schedule of HBM4 in 2Q25E and mass production in 2H25E. [doc id='4'] - **Buy Rating**: Citi maintains a Buy rating on SK Hynix, expecting the company to stay resilient amid challenging pricing conditions in the conventional memory market. [doc id='5'] **Other Important Points**: - **Market Consensus**: The market consensus for 4Q24E OP was W7.9tr, lower than the expected W8.3tr. [doc id='2'] - **NAND ASP Decline**: Despite a projected +9% QoQ growth in NAND B/G in 4Q24E, NAND ASP is expected to fall -7% QoQ due to weak mobile NAND demand. [doc id='2'] - **2025E Valuation**: Citi's target price for SK Hynix is W340,000, based on a 2.5x 25E P/B and a 30% premium to the stock's historical average PB during a structural demand growth phase. [doc id='19'] - **Risks**: Downside risks include a downturn in DRAM demand, weaker NAND demand than forecasts, and a collapse in global consumption. [doc id='20'] - **Investment Strategy**: Citi believes SK Hynix is well positioned to benefit from the DRAM market recovery driven by limited supply growth and its technology leadership in DRAM. [doc id='18'] - **Valuation**: The target price is derived by applying 2.5x 25E P/B, obtained by applying a 30% premium to the stock's historical average PB during a structural demand growth phase. [doc id='19'] - **Risks**: Downside risks include a downturn in DRAM demand, weaker NAND demand than forecasts, and a collapse in global consumption. [doc id='20']

Industry Overview * **Plasma Supply Uptick**: The supply of albumin, IVIg, and pdFVIII saw a notable increase in 4Q24, driven by factors such as new collection center openings and increased exports. * **Price Concerns**: Despite the supply increase, prices may fall slightly in 2025 due to subpar demand, lack of academic promotion, and stricter hospital prescription control. * **Valuation Concerns**: The plasma segment is currently trading at a 34% discount to the 5-year average, reflecting concerns about pricing and competition from rHSA. * **Challenges and Opportunities**: The industry faces challenges such as falling prices and competition, but also opportunities such as increased exports, product mix shifts, and structural growth driven by academic promotion, production yield improvement, and new product innovation. Key Products and Companies * **Albumin**: Domestic albumin outgrew imported albumin in 4Q24, with Tiantan maintaining the leading market share. * **IVIg**: Tiantan maintained its leading position in the IVIg market, followed by RAAS, Taibang, and Hualan. * **pdFVIII**: RAAS was the largest player in the pdFVIII market, followed by Hualan, Taibang Bio, and Tiantan. * **PCC**: Tiantan led the PCC market, followed by Taibang, Nanyue, and Hualan. * **Human Fibrinogen**: RAAS and Boya led the market, followed by Taibang, Hualan, and Green Cross. Valuation and Market Dynamics * **Valuation**: The plasma fractionators' valuation is at a trough and likely to stay depressed in the near term due to falling prices and temporary market dynamics. * **Market Dynamics**: Supply expansion could drive further pricing correction for major PDMPs, especially in retail pharmacies. Plasma players should manage through by increasing exports and shifting their product mix towards high-margin products. Conclusion The China plasma industry is facing challenges and opportunities. While supply has increased, prices may fall due to subpar demand and competition. However, the industry has the potential for structural growth driven by factors such as increased exports, product mix shifts, and new product innovation.

Summary of TCL Technology Corp (000100.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TCL Technology Corp (000100.SZ) - **Date of Conference**: January 10, 2025 - **Industry**: Technology and Telecommunications Key Points Financial Guidance and Performance - **2024 Estimates**: TCL revised up CSOT's 2024 net profits to approximately Rmb6 billion, with revenue expected to be Rmb84 billion [2] - **2025 Guidance**: The company targets net profits of Rmb8-10 billion and revenue of Rmb100 billion, with a free cash flow (FCF) estimate of Rmb30 billion, up from Rmb25 billion in 2024 [2] - **Conservative Outlook**: The 2025 profit guidance may be conservative if average selling prices (ASP) increase by 3% year-over-year [2] - **Depreciation and Amortization (D&A)**: D&A is expected to rise by Rmb1-2 billion in 2025 but will decrease by Rmb2 billion annually starting in 2026 [2][3] Operational Insights - **Channel Inventory**: The company reports healthy channel inventory and does not anticipate brands stocking up due to potential tariff risks [3] - **Utilization Rate**: The utilization rate (UTR) is projected to increase in 2025 from 83% in 2024, driven by an increase in average TV size [4] - **Production Plans**: CSOT plans a one-week production suspension during the Chinese New Year [3] Market Trends - **Panel Supply**: The company expects mainland panel makers' market share to rise to 75% in 2025 from 70% in 2024, with a potential tightness in panel supply anticipated in 2026 [4] - **TV Shipments**: Global TV shipments are expected to increase in 2025, supported by the Chinese market [4] Risks - **Key Risks**: Risks to the target price include lower-than-expected panel prices, lower demand, and macroeconomic factors such as economic cycles and consumer demand [8] Valuation - **Target Price**: The target price is set at Rmb5.50, based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.7x for 2025E, aligning with the average P/B from 2022-2023 [7] - **Expected Returns**: The expected share price return is 15.3%, with a total expected return of 17.6% including a dividend yield of 2.3% [5] Additional Insights - **OLED Business**: The OLED business is expected to reduce losses by Rmb1-2 billion, contributing positively to profitability [2] - **Government Shares Repurchase**: The company plans to repurchase shares from the government for T6 and T7 (both Gen10.5) in 2024-2025 [2] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting TCL Technology Corp's financial outlook, operational strategies, market trends, and associated risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, specifically the impact of recent sanctions on Russia's energy sector and the resulting implications for oil prices and market dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Brent Oil Price Movement**: Brent oil prices increased by 4% to $80 per barrel following the announcement of broad sanctions on Russia's energy sector, which targeted producers, shippers, traders, and insurers [1][2]. - **Sanctions Impact**: The new sanctions are estimated to affect vessels that transported 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil in 2024, accounting for 25% of Russia's oil exports, predominantly crude oil [1][10]. - **Production and Price Forecast**: Despite high uncertainty, the base case for Russian oil production remains unchanged at 10.6 mb/d for 2025, with Brent prices expected to average between $70 and $85 per barrel [17][22]. - **Short-term Price Upside Risks**: The risks to the Brent price forecast are skewed to the upside in the short term, with potential prices exceeding $85 per barrel if Russian production drops by 1 mb/d [1][23][28]. - **OPEC+ Role**: It is assumed that OPEC+ will stabilize the market by utilizing its spare capacity and increasing production, limiting the long-term price impact of lower sanctioned supply [1][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights that cold winter weather has tightened oil supply and demand dynamics, contributing to the price rally [4][5]. - **Changing Market Perceptions**: There has been a shift in market perception regarding the oil balance for 2025, with declining US crude inventories and effective OPEC+ compliance leading to a projected deficit in Q4 2024 [5][6]. - **Freight and Refined Product Markets**: The announcement of sanctions led to a 10% increase in global dirty tanker freight rates and a 3% increase in clean product tanker rates, indicating a significant market reaction [41][45]. - **Hedging Recommendations**: Oil producers are advised to hedge downside risks by taking advantage of the price increase and call skew through producer three-way options [40][36]. Conclusion - The sanctions on Russia's energy sector have created significant volatility in the oil market, with potential for both short-term price increases and long-term stabilization through OPEC+ actions. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring these developments for investment decisions in the oil sector [1][23][40].