shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 V i e w p o i n t | 27 Nov 2024 09:00:10 ET │ 9 pages Global Metals & Mining shuinu9870 Global stainless output increases at much faster rate than carbon steel again, on track for 60mn tonnes in FY'24 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： CITI'S TAKE World stainless steel production is typically more volatile than carbon steel. It declined 3%y/y in FY ...

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Summary of Global Integrated Oil & Gas Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Global Integrated Oil & Gas** industry, discussing market dynamics and forecasts for 2025 and beyond [9][26]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - **Overcapacity in Oil Markets**: The global oil market is expected to remain in overcapacity, with an estimated **8 million barrels per day (mbpd)** (approximately **8%**) of capacity sidelined due to OPEC+ production cuts [11]. - **Valuation Support**: The sector is currently discounting **$62 per barrel** for Brent oil, which is **15% below** forward curve prices, indicating better valuation support compared to previous years [12][51]. - **Political Changes**: A changing political landscape, particularly in the US, is anticipated to lower the cost of equity (CoE) for the sector, potentially benefiting investment [13]. Regional Performance - **US vs Europe**: The US energy sector has outperformed the European sector by an average of **10% per annum** since 2010, with expectations for continued outperformance in 2025 due to favorable political and capital allocation conditions [14][53]. Company-Specific Insights - **Chevron (CVX)**: The company is currently undervalued relative to peers, with potential upside linked to the mid-2025 arbitration regarding Guyana. The downside risk appears protected [15]. - **ConocoPhillips (COP)**: The company is viewed positively due to its growth prospects and portfolio depth, enhanced by synergies from Marathon [15]. - **Galp (GALP)**: The company is considered undervalued, particularly in light of its exploration potential in Namibia [15]. Gas Market Dynamics - **LNG Supply Growth**: Global LNG supply is projected to expand by **40%** from 2025 to 2028, which may impact pricing dynamics. European prices for 2025 are expected to average **$13.6 per MMBtu**, significantly above long-run marginal costs (LRMC) of **$7-8 per MMBtu** [16][40]. Refining Sector - **Refining Margins Normalization**: After peaks in 2022/23, refining margins have normalized and are expected to align with historical averages. A **25% year-over-year decline** in margins is anticipated for 2025 due to increased refining capacity and lower global oil demand [41]. Investment Outlook - **Equity Performance**: Historical trends suggest that oil equities underperform during periods of spare capacity. The expectation for 2025 is that the oil market will still face overcapacity unless valuation support is found [42]. - **Capital Allocation Trends**: US integrated oil companies are allocating a significant portion of their capital towards hydrocarbon monetization, while European companies are focusing on transition investments [56]. Additional Important Insights - **Risks in Gas Pricing**: The gas market is currently elevated, with traders overly concerned about winter risks, which may not materialize as expected [40]. - **Long-term Growth Prospects**: Companies like ConocoPhillips and Chevron are expected to see growth driven by upcoming projects and synergies, although the overall market remains cautious due to overcapacity concerns [57]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Global Integrated Oil & Gas industry.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 27 Nov 2024 14:03:10 ET │ 14 pages V i e w p o i n t | Global Economics shuinu9870 Global Inflation Monitor: Progress to Central Banks' Targets Slows 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： CITI'S TAKE Global headline inflation in October ticked up slightly but remained only a notch above 2% as goods, food, and energy inflation all continued to cruise near or even ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Daniel Roeska +1 917 344 8577 daniel.roeska@bernsteinsg.com shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： First Published: 26 Nov 2024 13:27 UTC Completion Date: 26 Nov 2024 13:27 UTC Global Autos Global Autos: Tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports to the US? Keep calm and carry on! shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Stephen Reitman +44 20 7762 5535 stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com ...

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly the upcoming **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** scheduled for December 12, 2023, which will set the economic priorities for 2025 [10][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **GDP Growth Target**: Policymakers are likely to maintain the "around 5%" target for real GDP growth in 2025, with the target for 2024 appearing achievable due to policy efforts since mid-year [10][14][15]. 2. **Inflation and Deflation**: Ending deflation is not expected to be a priority. The current policy system lacks a designated ministry for price stability, and the best outcome may be a focus on stabilizing overall price levels [15][17]. 3. **Reactive Policy Mode**: The policy shift observed since September is real but does not indicate a move towards a proactive policy mode. Policymakers are showing urgency to address economic slowdown but are unlikely to adopt a more aggressive stance [17][21]. 4. **External Uncertainties**: Elevated uncertainties regarding external factors, such as US tariffs, may limit clarity for policymakers. The CEWC is expected to highlight these risks without providing specific reaction plans [19][53]. 5. **Monetary Policy Constraints**: The supportive monetary policy stance is anticipated to continue, with expectations of 50 basis points rate cuts in 2025. The current net interest margin (NIM) is at an all-time low of 1.53%, which may constrain monetary policy [22][32]. 6. **Fiscal Policy Outlook**: A supportive fiscal policy tone is expected, with a projected general government deficit of approximately RMB 11.6 trillion for 2025, an increase from RMB 8.96 trillion in 2024. This could lead to a deficit exceeding 3% of GDP [33][34]. 7. **Consumer Stimulus Initiatives**: There is a consensus that fiscal stimulus will focus more on consumption in 2025, with potential areas for funding including trade-in programs, childbirth subsidies, and targeted cash transfers [37][38]. 8. **Property Market Support**: The housing policy aims to stabilize the market, with government buybacks seen as an effective tool to address excess supply. However, the balance between funding support and moral hazard remains a challenge [48][49]. 9. **Response to US Tariffs**: The CEWC is likely to reiterate the commitment to opening up and may respond symbolically to US tariffs, but no concrete plans are expected. The focus will remain on boosting domestic demand in light of external pressures [53][55]. Additional Important Insights - **Local Government Incentives**: The effectiveness of policy easing may depend on local governments' willingness to implement central directives, which has historically varied [20]. - **Economic Diplomacy**: The US tariff threats could reshape China's trade relations, potentially expanding trade negotiations with other partners [55]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: Key areas to watch include the implementation of announced policies, the impact of monetary easing, and the effectiveness of consumption support measures as 2025 approaches [58][59]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding China's economic landscape as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between domestic policies and external challenges.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call involved Workday, with key executives including CEO Carl Eschenbach, CFO Zane Rowe, Co-President Doug Robinson, and Chief Product Officer David Somers participating in the discussion [1][2]. Financial Performance - Workday reported a solid Q3 performance with subscription revenue growth of 16%, reaching $1.959 billion, and non-GAAP operating margins of 26% [2][10]. - Total revenue for Q3 was $2.160 billion, also reflecting a growth of 16% [10]. - U.S. revenue totaled $1.62 billion, while international revenue was $537 million, both growing at 16% [10]. - The twelve-month subscription revenue backlog (CRPO) was $6.98 billion, increasing by 15%, and total subscription revenue backlog reached $22.19 billion, up 20% [10]. Industry Dynamics - Workday's strong customer relationships across various industries contributed to its growth, particularly in government and higher education, where approximately 90% of wins were for full suite solutions [2][3]. - The professional and business services sector became the third industry to exceed $1 billion in annual recurring revenue, joining financial services and retail and hospitality [3]. AI and Product Innovations - Workday emphasized the growing demand for AI solutions, with over 30% of customer expansions in Q3 involving AI products [4]. - The company launched "Illuminate," a next-generation AI platform aimed at enhancing productivity and transforming business processes [5]. - New AI agents, including the Recruiter Agent, are expected to significantly impact bookings and revenue, with customers experiencing up to a 39% reduction in turnover [4][24]. Strategic Partnerships and International Growth - Workday formed strategic partnerships with organizations like Deloitte and AWS, enhancing its product offerings and market reach [3][5]. - International growth remains a key focus, with only 25% of revenue currently coming from outside the U.S., indicating significant long-term potential [8]. Future Guidance and Market Outlook - For Q4 FY25, Workday expects subscription revenue of $2.025 billion, reflecting a growth of 15%, and a full-year subscription revenue of $7.703 billion, an increase of 17% [10][11]. - The company anticipates FY26 subscription revenue of approximately $8.8 billion, or about 14% growth, with expectations for a stronger second half driven by AI opportunities [11][12]. Management Changes - Doug Robinson, a long-time leader at Workday, will retire at the end of the fiscal year, with Rob Inslin appointed as the new President and Chief Commercial Officer [8][9]. Risks and Considerations - The company highlighted risks related to revenue recognition for strategic deals, which may impact near-term results but are expected to contribute positively in the long term [13][14]. - Workday is navigating increased deal scrutiny in certain global markets, particularly in EMEA, but remains confident in its win rates and strategic positioning [21][22]. Conclusion - Workday is positioned for sustainable growth, focusing on AI innovations, expanding its partner ecosystem, and enhancing its international presence while managing operational efficiencies and strategic investments [31].

Summary of the Economic Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the global economic outlook, with a focus on North America and various regions including Latin America, Asia/Pacific, and Europe. The data is sourced from J.P. Morgan's economic research. Key Points and Arguments Global Economic Growth - The global economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.9% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 2.7% in 2024 and a recovery to 2.4% in 2025 [2][4][5] - Developed markets are expected to grow at 1.8% in 2023, with a marginal increase to 1.7% in 2024 [5] - Emerging markets are forecasted to grow at 4.2% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 4.1% in 2024 [5] United States Economic Outlook - The U.S. real GDP growth is projected at 2.9% for 2023, decreasing to 2.8% in 2024 and further to 2.2% in 2025 [2][5] - Private consumption is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024 [5] - Equipment investment is forecasted to increase by 3.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024 [5] - Consumer prices are projected to rise by 4.1% in 2023, decreasing to 2.9% in 2024 [5] Canada and Latin America - Canada’s GDP growth is expected to be 1.2% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 1.1% in 2024 [2] - Latin America is projected to grow at 1.9% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 1.8% in 2024 [2] - Argentina is facing a contraction of -1.6% in 2023, with a significant recovery expected in 2024 at 4.4% [2] Asia/Pacific Region - The Asia/Pacific region is expected to grow at 4.4% in 2023, decreasing to 3.9% in 2024 [2] - China’s growth is projected at 5.2% in 2023, with a decrease to 4.8% in 2024 [2] - India is expected to maintain strong growth at 8.2% in 2023, decreasing to 6.5% in 2024 [2] Europe and the Euro Area - The Euro area is projected to grow at 0.5% in 2023, with a slight increase to 0.8% in 2024 [5] - Germany is expected to experience a slight contraction of -0.1% in 2023, with a recovery to 0.1% in 2024 [5] - France is projected to grow at 1.1% in 2023, maintaining the same growth rate in 2024 [5] Other Notable Points - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is expected to rise from 3.6% in 2023 to 4.1% in 2024 [5] - The federal budget balance is projected to be -6.1% of GDP in 2023, slightly worsening to -6.3% in 2024 [5] - Industrial production in the U.S. is expected to decline by -0.5% in 2023, with a slight recovery to -0.3% in 2024 [5] Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights the significant impact of government spending and investment on economic growth, particularly in the U.S. where government spending is projected to grow by 3.9% in 2023 [5] - The report also notes the importance of inventory changes, with a significant increase in inventory contribution expected in the U.S. from $33.1 billion in 2023 to $63.9 billion in 2024 [5] - The analysis emphasizes the varying economic conditions across different regions, indicating that while some areas may experience growth, others may face challenges such as contractions or slower growth rates [2][5]