Summary of the National People's Congress (NPC) Preview Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Event**: National People's Congress (NPC) scheduled to start on March 5, 2025 Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Targets - Policymakers are expected to maintain a GDP growth target of "around 5%" for 2025, consistent with the 2024 target and actual performance [4][6][9] - Provincial targets for growth are generally set at "around 5%" or higher, with only Qinghai targeting around 4.5% [9][10] - The weighted average of provincial growth targets has slightly decreased from 5.4% to 5.3% [13] Employment Focus - The government aims to keep new urban employment targets above 12 million and maintain a surveyed unemployment rate around 5.5% [16][18] - None of the provinces with numeric job targets reduced their targets for 2025, indicating a strong focus on employment stability despite growth uncertainties [16][20] Inflation Expectations - The CPI target is expected to be set at "around 2%", marking the first downward revision since 2021 and the lowest target since 2003 [25][26] - This reflects a recognition of low inflation realities, with inflation not hitting targets since 2012 [25][29] Fiscal Policy and Revenue Growth - A fiscal expansion of RMB 2.5 trillion (~1.8% of GDP) is anticipated, with the overall government deficit projected to rise to approximately 4% of GDP [5][39][42] - Provinces have set muted expectations for fiscal revenue growth, with only two provinces targeting revenue growth above 5% [31][33] Tariff Impacts - A phased increase of 15% in tariffs on Chinese goods is expected, which could negatively impact exports by 6 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [5][18] - Approximately 42 million urban jobs could be at risk due to these tariffs [18] Investment vs. Consumption - Local governments are focusing more on boosting investment rather than consumption, with no significant breakthroughs in consumer stimulus reported [32][34] - Provinces are looking to complete RMB 1 trillion in annual investments in key projects [34] Monetary Policy - Anticipated monetary policy adjustments include 50 basis points rate cuts and 100 basis points RRR cuts starting from Q2 2025 [5][39] Conclusion - The NPC is expected to reflect a mark-to-market approach, acknowledging current economic realities without making drastic new decisions [3][4][37] - Policymakers are likely to prioritize employment stability while managing growth expectations amid external pressures such as tariffs [5][16][39]

Flash | 14 Feb 2025 07:20:25 ET │ 9 pages China Hardware China Smartphone Dec-24/FY24 Sell-in Shipments +20.8%/+6.5% YoY CITI'S TAKE According to CAICT, China smartphone sell-in shipments surged 20.8% YoY to 32.4mn units in Dec-24, bringing full-year 2024/4Q24 shipments to 294mn/88.5mn units, +6.5%/ +4.3% YoY, respectively. Overall Dec sell-in shipments sequentially improved by +15% MoM (Nov-24: +1.1% MoM). Overall FY24 sell-out shipment was about 274mn units(+1%YoY), suggesting some inventories build by en ...

13 February 2025 | 4:22PM PST GS SUSTAIN: Sustainable Fund Holdings What do top performing Sustainable funds own? Against the backdrop of a more challenged environment for Sustainable (SI) funds, we examine the holdings of 200 of the top-performing SI funds over the past three years (Top 200) and parse where holdings vary the most vs. the broader SI fund complex. Top 200 funds, which on average have outperformed the broader SI fund universe by 31 bps over the past three years, have materially reduced owners ...

February 14, 2025 09:06 PM GMT US Rates Strategy | North America Staying Long Duration While Raising UST Yield Forecasts Fewer and later rate cuts from the Fed in our US economics baseline raise our US Treasury yield forecasts – which we keep well below consensus and the market forwards. We see the 10y Treasury yield ending the year at 4.00%, with risks skewed to lower, not higher, yields. Stay long 5y Treasury notes. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. | M February 14, 2025 09:06 PM GMT ...

ASE hosted its 4Q24 analyst meeting on February 13, 2025. 4Q24 results were largely inline with GSe/Bloomberg consensus. 1Q25 guidance also was largely inline, with ATM revenue to decrease by mid-single digits % QoQ and GM to decline slightly by more than 1ppts QoQ, partially due to higher ramp up costs related to advanced packaging business. EMS revenue is projected to decline slightly YoY, with operating margin down by 30bps YoY, reflecting typical seasonality and higher costs from new facility investment ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Fertiliser Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **fertiliser sector** in China, particularly **potash**, **urea**, and **phosphate fertilisers** [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Fertiliser Price Trends - **Potash prices** have risen significantly since Q4 2024, with domestic average selling prices (ASP) exceeding **Rmb 2,700/t** [7]. - **Urea prices** experienced a slight rebound due to agricultural restocking before the Chinese New Year (CNY), but this was short-lived as production increased post-CNY [8]. - **Phosphate fertiliser prices** remain muted due to low purchasing intentions from downstream producers, with stable ASP around **Rmb 1,000/t** [9]. Influencing Factors on Fertiliser Market 1. **Agricultural Product Prices**: Strong international soybean and corn prices are expected to boost domestic fertiliser demand as China approaches the spring ploughing season [3][11]. 2. **Export Policy Changes**: Urea export volumes have sharply declined due to legal inspections, suggesting potential policy relaxation could ease domestic supply pressures [3][12]. 3. **Energy Consumption Policies**: Stricter regulations on energy consumption are expected to constrain urea and phosphate fertiliser supply [3][13]. Production and Capacity Insights - Limited production growth is anticipated for potash, with Asia-Potash expected to increase production by **1mt** in 2025 [4]. - Urea production capacity additions for 2025 are projected at **4.5mt**, but high inventory levels and subdued profits are concerning [4][29]. - No capacity additions for MAP/DAP are expected in 2025-26, although upstream phosphate ore projects are planned [4][48]. Stock Recommendations - **Asia-Potash** and **Hualu-hengsheng** are recommended for investment, with potential upside risks linked to production growth and price recovery [5][80]. Risks and Considerations - The fertiliser sector faces risks from fluctuating international oil prices, uncertain global economic growth, and potential oversupply from new capacity coming online [64][66]. - Specific risks for Asia-Potash include policy risks and commodity price declines, while Hualu-hengsheng faces challenges from reduced demand and regulatory tightening [66][66]. Additional Important Insights - The **fixed-bed production process** accounts for nearly **25%** of China's urea capacity, which is under pressure due to high costs and low efficiency, potentially leading to the exit of these facilities [4][34]. - The **export volume** of urea has drastically decreased from an average of **7mt** (2010-2021) to **250kt** in 2024, indicating significant supply-demand pressure domestically [3][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the fertiliser market in China, highlighting key trends, influencing factors, and investment recommendations.

ab 13 February 2025 Global Research APAC Economic Perspectives ASEAN: Assessing tariff risks Not quite the same tariff war as the last Trump 2.0's trade policy is shaping up differently from the last US-China trade war. First, by how quickly tariffs were unveiled. New tariffs were announced and some implemented within weeks of the President's inauguration. Second, by the number of countries affected. This went up from just one at the end of last week (China) to dozens at the start of this week following the ...

February 12, 2025 11:31 PM GMT Semiconductors | North America ASIC enthusiasm is starting to feel excessive for US AI semi stocks The market seems to be discounting large outperformance for ASIC custom silicon vs. NVDA/AMD merchant silicon. We take the other side of that debate. Key Takeaways In the last six months, the momentum in the AI trade has clearly moved to custom silicon, as NVIDIA has tread water and AMD has sharply underperformed. NVIDIA's $3 trillion of market cap is supported by over $32 bn of ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on global investment strategies and macroeconomic conditions, particularly in relation to asset allocation and risk management. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The company suggests a balanced approach with a tactical focus on hedges to manage risks effectively [1] 2. **Pro-Risk Sentiment**: The current market sentiment is modestly pro-risk, emphasizing the importance of balance and tactical hedges in investment strategies [2] 3. **Global Economic Growth**: Resilient global growth is projected, with real GDP growth estimates for major economies as follows: - USA: 2.8% in 2023, 2.4% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 - Japan: -0.2% in 2023, 1.2% in 2024, 1.2% in 2025 - Euro Area: 0.7% in 2023, 0.7% in 2024, 1.0% in 2025 - China: 5.0% in 2023, 4.5% in 2024, 4.5% in 2025 [4] 4. **Inflation Trends**: Headline inflation rates are expected to decline across major economies: - USA: 4.1% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024, 2.7% in 2025 - Euro Area: 5.4% in 2023, 2.4% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025 [5] 5. **Risk Appetite Indicator**: The Risk Appetite Indicator has been elevated since the beginning of the year, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [16] 6. **US Equity Demand**: "US exceptionalism" continues to drive demand for US equities, with significant inflows from global investors [19] 7. **Credit and Equity Valuations**: Credit spreads are tight compared to historical averages, and equity valuations have risen from summer lows, indicating a favorable environment for equities [29] 8. **Equity Risk Premiums**: Equity risk premiums have fallen across regions, influenced by higher bond yields and growth expectations [32] 9. **Drawdown Risks**: There is an increased risk of equity drawdowns, particularly in the context of higher valuations and less negative inflation momentum [46][47] 10. **Central Bank Policies**: Central bank easing is expected to limit downside risks to both the economy and risky assets, with fewer Fed cuts anticipated in the next 12 months [48] Additional Important Insights 1. **Regional Diversification**: The divergence in economic cycles across regions presents opportunities for international diversification [83] 2. **Tariff Concerns**: Selective overlays such as the Dollar, Gold, and TIPS can help buffer against tariff shocks, with mixed performance observed around tariff concerns [65] 3. **Safe Havens**: Traditional safe havens like Gold are becoming more relevant again, with less correlation to equities and bonds [71] 4. **Changing Drivers of Risk Appetite**: Growth optimism is becoming a more significant driver of risk appetite compared to monetary policy and inflation [58] 5. **China-Related Assets**: Assets related to China have been underperforming, indicating potential investment risks in that region [87] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current investment landscape and strategic recommendations.

V i e w p o i n t | 14 Feb 2025 11:11:27 ET │ 22 pages China Data Centers CITI'S TAKE Our checks indicate rising AI/DC-related capex from domestic CSPs and we believe we are at early stages of a domestic AI capex up-cycle/race, cementing our view in our outlook report, while VNET should be a key beneficiary of domestic AI demand, thanks to strong landbank resources, while domestic DC move-in of GDS should remain rapid with MSR turnaround, positive for destocking and deleveraging, despite not capturing near- ...