V i e w p o i n t | 14 Feb 2025 11:11:27 ET │ 22 pages China Data Centers CITI'S TAKE Our checks indicate rising AI/DC-related capex from domestic CSPs and we believe we are at early stages of a domestic AI capex up-cycle/race, cementing our view in our outlook report, while VNET should be a key beneficiary of domestic AI demand, thanks to strong landbank resources, while domestic DC move-in of GDS should remain rapid with MSR turnaround, positive for destocking and deleveraging, despite not capturing near- ...

14 February 2025 | 4:48PM HKT China Beverages: Global read-across: Spirits under weak gifting demand in 4Q to LNY; soft drinks on positive volume trend in 4Q In the last few weeks, the global alcoholic beverage names under GS coverage reported their recent interim performance. We summarize our read-across from these results to our China alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage coverage as follows: Leaf Liu +852-3966-4169 | leaf.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Olivier Nicolaï +44(20)7774-2895 | olivier.ni ...

February 14, 2025 09:09 PM GMT Global FXEM Strategy FX Forecast Update We have made adjustments to our FX forecasts following changes to our Fed call and UST outlook. We now see a more moderate decline in USD on a DXY basis and a flatter profile for EM currencies. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 Dec-22 Jun-23 Dec-23 Jun-24 Dec-24 Jun-25 Dec-25 DXY Broad USD New Old Index | Exhibit 2: | ….and a flatter EM path | | --- | --- | | Total Return Index | | ...

February 14, 2025 08:00 AM GMT Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd | Asia Pacific M Update Risk Reward Update What's Changed | Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347.HK) | From | To | | --- | --- | --- | | Price Target | HK$28.00 | HK$32.00 | | Bull Case | HK$38.00 | HK$43.40 | | Base Case | HK$28.00 | HK$32.00 | | Bear Case | HK$15.00 | HK$17.10 | | Updated Components | | | | EPS | | | | Investment Thesis | | | | Bull Base Bear Scenarios | | | Risk Reward for Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347.HK) has been updated Reason f ...

Summary of CEEMEA Economic Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) economic outlook for 2025, highlighting growth prospects, inflation trends, and monetary policy adjustments. Key Points Economic Growth - CEEMEA economies began 2025 positively, with growth accelerating to a 3.4% annualized pace in early 2025, driven by stronger performance in South Africa and Turkey [2][5][21] - Growth estimates for 2024 have been revised from 2.2% to 2.5%, and for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.9%, with Turkey showing the most significant upward revision [4][21] Inflation Trends - Underlying inflation is declining across most CEEMEA economies, although recent data has shown unexpected increases in Hungary, Russia, Turkey, Egypt, and Ukraine [4][25] - The inflation forecast for 2025 has been revised higher, particularly for Hungary, Russia, Turkey, and Egypt, reflecting mixed developments in inflation dynamics [35][37] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The timing for the next rate cuts has been pushed back: South Africa, Egypt, and Ghana to Q2; Poland, Hungary, and Romania to Q3; and Russia and Kazakhstan to Q4 [4][39] - Central banks are adopting a cautious approach to monetary easing due to increased external uncertainties and higher-than-expected inflation in some countries [39][46] Risks to Economic Outlook 1. **Potential Ceasefire in Ukraine**: Speculation around a ceasefire deal has increased, with a 70% probability indicated by betting markets. The economic implications depend on the nature of the ceasefire, with potential benefits for CEE-4 countries [8][12] 2. **US Tariff Increases**: The risk of increased tariffs poses a significant threat to CEEMEA growth, particularly for export-oriented economies reliant on the auto sector and EU trade [15][16] 3. **Middle East Uncertainty**: Increased uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding US involvement in Gaza, could impact regional risk markets and economic stability [17][19] Regional Insights - The CEE-4 countries (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Czech Republic) are particularly sensitive to the risks associated with the Ukraine conflict and potential US tariffs [45][46] - Turkey's economic activity is returning to trend, with expectations for higher growth and inflation in the medium term [6][21] Conclusion - The CEEMEA economic outlook for 2025 is characterized by a mix of positive growth momentum and significant external risks. The interplay between these factors will be crucial in shaping the economic landscape for the region in the coming year [7][45]

Summary of Conference Call on China Autos & Shared Mobility Industry Overview - The focus is on the automotive and humanoid robot supply chain in China, particularly suppliers for Tesla and their potential to transition from automotive components to humanoid robotics [1][2][9]. Key Companies Discussed 1. **Tuopu (601689.SS)** - Positioned as the best candidate for humanoid robot supply due to strong existing businesses and potential for actuator assembly [1][2]. - YTD share price increase of 32-42% [2]. - Earnings estimates for 2025-26 raised by 12-19% due to stronger EV customer volumes [4][30]. - Targeting over 30% YoY growth in 2025, with revenue from humanoid actuator assembly projected to significantly increase [28][29]. 2. **Sanhua (002050.SZ)** - Expected to grow slower than Tuopu, with a forecasted 15% earnings growth in 2025 [4][31]. - Price target raised by 38% to Rmb29, reflecting stronger-than-expected cooling parts revenue [34]. 3. **Xusheng (603305.SS)** - Downgraded to Underweight due to increasing competition and declining revenue [4][35]. - Revenue fell 8% YoY in 9M24, with earnings down 43% YoY [35]. - Price target raised by 30% to Rmb13, but still under pressure [38]. 4. **Recodeal (688800.SS)** - Also rated Underweight, facing margin pressure despite a 53% YoY revenue growth in 9M24 [39][42]. - Price target raised by 131% to Rmb37, but existing EV business remains under pressure [42]. Market Dynamics - The market views Tesla's EV suppliers as potential candidates for humanoid robot supply, with significant share price rallies observed [2][10]. - Despite no confirmed orders, commercialization of humanoid robots is anticipated in 2025, with major players planning to produce thousands of units [2][9]. Financial Performance and Valuation - **Tuopu**: - Preliminary 4Q24 earnings between Rmb621-921 million, up 12% to 66% YoY [27]. - Revenue from auto electronics grew 906% YoY in 2024 [27]. - Price target increased by 45% to Rmb80 based on DCF valuation [30][50]. - **Sanhua**: - Management guided for 2025-30 CAGRs of 20% in EV parts and 5-10% in cooling parts [31]. - **Xusheng**: - Revenue and earnings under pressure, with a target of 30% YoY growth in 2025, which is considered challenging [36]. - **Recodeal**: - Revenue growth of 53% YoY but earnings growth only 11% YoY due to margin pressure [39]. Investment Risks and Considerations - Margin pressure from EV price cuts and tariff risks are highlighted as potential concerns for investors [3]. - The valuations of humanoid suppliers have surged above their 4-year averages, raising questions about whether they are too stretched [3][15]. - The potential for downside exists if competition intensifies or if the expected growth in humanoid robotics does not materialize as projected [56][61]. Conclusion - The automotive supply chain in China is transitioning towards humanoid robotics, with key players like Tuopu positioned to benefit significantly. However, investors should remain cautious of market dynamics, competitive pressures, and valuation concerns as the industry evolves.

14 February 2025 | 5:45AM CST TSMC (2330.TW) Buy Consideration of media reports of potential strategic developments involving Intel and US tariff proposals | | 12m Price Target: NT$1,400.00 12m Price Target: $259.00 | Price: NT$1,090.00 Price: $206.38 | Upside: 28.4% Upside: 25.5% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2330.TW TSM | | | | What happened? Media have reported that TSMC and Intel may be forming a joint venture to enhance U.S. chip manufacturing capabilities. TSMC also held its first-ever board meeting h ...

ab 13 February 2025 Global Research Our scorecard of the most idiosyncratic global assets captures over the last couple of months versus their post-COVID norms catches only a handful of interesting developments (Figure 1). Coffee and the HSI have been atypical outperformers, whereas Uranium, Indonesia's JCI and India's NIFTY have been notable underperformers. Saudi and South African stocks as well as PEN and stand out as having lost their connection with typical peers yet are not moving materially. When zoo ...

ab 13 February 2025 Global Research China Property Revisiting stalled projects' status We estimate 40% of the delayed projects have been delivered This note revisits "Can Project Whitelist restore stalled projects?" published in March 2024 by consulting with experts from an asset management company (AMC) and a bankruptcy & liquidation service firm, and our bottom-up analysis of 48 defaulted developers' contract liabilities. The conclusion is that 40% of the delayed projects have been delivered as of Decembe ...

Integration of DeepSeek into Weixin Search; eyes on Weixin's eventual AI agent/assistant; Buy | 0700.HK | | --- | | 12m Price Target: HK$534.00 | | Price: HK$474.80 | | Upside: 12.5% | On February 15, Tencent's Weixin released new AI search functionality with the integration of DeepSeek's R1-model for select users, providing a deep thinking option (on top of a quick response option) with results that can be shared within Weixin Chat/Moments. We note this development came closely after Tencent's inclusion of ...