ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 19 April 2024 Global Rates Strategy Interest Rates Rates Map: Pricing risk of US "no landing" Europe including UK Emmanouil Karimalis Strategist ˜ Market's increasing confidence about a "no landing" scenario for the US emmanouil.karimalis@ubs.com +44-20-7567 8000 economy, coupled with the ECB's readiness to cut rates in June, suggests that the divergence between US and EUR rates is likely to persist for longer. Reinout De Bock Strategist ˜ While the current market pricing ...

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 15 April 2024 Global Commodities Equities US/UK limit Russia metal sales Global Basic Materials Dim Ariyasinghe US/UK move to restrict Russian metal sales Analyst On Friday, the US (link) and the UK (link) took further action to limit Russian profit from dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com the trade of its aluminium, copper & nickel. Specifically, the order restricts Russian metal +61-3-9242 6385 from entering London Metal Exchange (LME) (link) or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Lach ...

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 15 April 2024 Global Strategy Global Strategy Global leveraged loans look set to outperform Global despite fundamental concerns as rate cuts get James Martin Strategist pushed out james.martin@ubs.com +1-212-713 7960 Matthew Mish, CFA Strategist Summary of Key Takeaways: matthew.mish@ubs.com ˜ US and European Leveraged Loans are outperforming other credit classes this year, +1-203-719 1242 but valuations still look attractive versus HY counterparts Julien Conzano Strategi ...

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 19 April 2024 US Equity Strategy Equity Strategy Earnings Brief 1Q24: Apr 19 Americas Jonathan Golub Strategist YTD, the price of oil has risen 15%. Over the same period, 1Q estimates for Energy jonathan.golub@ubs.com +1-212-713 8673 stocks have fallen -14%. Against this backdrop, we see the potential for positive surprises for the group. Patrick Palfrey Strategist patrick.palfrey@ubs.com 14.1% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 1Q expectations are for revenues to ...

J.P. Morgan Equity Strategy MislavMatejka(44-20) 7134-9741, mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com Global Equity Research Pedro Martins Junior (55-11) 4950-4121, pedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.com Global Equity Research 15 April 2024 DubravkoLakos-Bujas(1-212) 622-3601, dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com 15 April 2024 Global Developed Markets Strategy Dashboard Global Equity Strategy Mislav Matejka, CFAAC Prabhav Bhadani, CFA Table of Contents Page # (44-20) 7134-9741 (44-20) 7742-4404 Markets and Global Sectors Performance ...

Summary of Morgan Stanley Research Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Asia and Emerging Markets (EM) equity strategy, focusing on macroeconomic conditions, sector performance, and geopolitical influences affecting the markets. Key Points and Arguments Market Views - Japan and India are highlighted as top picks in developed and emerging markets, respectively, with overweight positions on Mexico, Poland, Greece, and Singapore [1][1][1] Sector and Style Views - Favorable outlook on Semiconductors/Equipment due to the AI boom and hardware recovery, alongside Industrials in India and Mexico. A momentum reversal is noted [1][1][1] Key Themes - Interest in AI Enablers and Adopters, Japanese Corporate Reform, and select opportunities in China and Korea [1][1][1] Flows and Positioning - Recent outflows observed in EM and China markets [1][1][1] Economic Outlook - Asia/EM equities are experiencing a short-term correction due to a stronger US growth outlook and bullish USD trends. Japan and Taiwan are well-positioned for US revenue exposure, while markets like Australia, Brazil, and Indonesia have deteriorated [1][1][1] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical risks are emphasized, particularly in the context of a transition to a multipolar world, affecting sectors like Aerospace and Defense [1][1][1] US Economic Forecast - The US GDP forecast for 2024 is revised to 2.3%, up from 1.6% previously, with an unemployment rate forecast of 4.2% [6][7][7] - Core PCE inflation is expected to decrease to 2.6% by Q4 2024 [7][7][7] Interest Rate Projections - The first rate cut by the Fed is now expected in July 2024, with further cuts anticipated in November and December [7][7][7] - Asia-ex-China central banks are expected to follow a later and shallower rate-cutting cycle [8][8][8] Performance of High US Revenue Exposure Stocks - Stocks with high US revenue exposure in Asia/EM have outperformed broader indices, benefiting from a stronger US economy [12][12][12] Sector Performance - Financials in the Asia Pacific have outperformed due to higher rates, while Real Estate is expected to underperform if rates remain elevated [22][22][22] Emerging Market Dynamics - The Indian market is viewed as resilient, with a strong corporate capex cycle and demographic advantages supporting continued growth [39][39][39] Aerospace and Defense Sector - The Asia Pacific Aerospace & Defense companies have outperformed the broader market by 206% since January 2014, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [31][31][31] Korean Political Landscape - The recent elections in Korea have resulted in a strong majority for the opposition, which may complicate corporate reforms and legislative approvals [35][35][35] Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on IT and AI themes in Korea, and maintaining an overweight stance on India due to its strong earnings cycle and demographic trends [39][39][39] Other Important Content - The report includes various exhibits detailing market correlations, performance metrics, and forecasts for different indices, emphasizing the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments [1][1][1][22][22][22]

M Foundation April 16, 2024 01:00 PM GMT Thematics | Europe Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Edward Stanley Equity Strategist Venture Vision: A Rare Vintage Edward.Stanley@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0840 Matias Ovrum Equity Strategist Matias.Ovrum@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9902 2025/26 have outsized odds of being top 3 vintage years for growth equity as far back as our records go. Please take 2 minutes to vote in the ongoing II survey. Our Venture Vision weeklies look at (1) early- stage cross ...

Summary of Key Points from Morgan Stanley Research on Chinese Growth/Tech Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese Growth/Tech sector, analyzing fund flows, short interest, and market dynamics as of April 2024 [2][3][4][9][11]. Core Insights Fund Flows - Active long-only managers resumed net selling in the Chinese Growth/Tech segment from March to April, with estimated weekly outflows of approximately US$0.59 billion in April, a 24% increase compared to March [3][4]. - Large-cap stocks such as Tencent, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and Meituan experienced significant outflows, while NetEase was the only large-cap stock to see net inflows during this period [3][4]. - Passive funds also contributed to the selling pressure in March and April, further impacting market liquidity [3][4]. Short Interest - Hedge funds have been covering shorts in the Chinese market, particularly in the Growth/Tech segment, indicating a shift in strategy rather than a bullish outlook [4]. - Stocks like Tencent, BYD, JD.com, and NIO saw the most short positions covered, while new shorts were added to Pinduoduo, Li Auto, KE Holdings, and Alibaba Health [4][11]. Market Performance - The performance of the most and least shorted stocks in China remained largely in line, suggesting that hedge funds are engaged in a de-grossing process rather than expressing a strong bullish sentiment [4]. Additional Important Insights - The dynamics of fund flows indicate a cautious approach among investors, with a focus on defensiveness in their China exposure [3]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring trading liquidity as passive fund selling adds headwinds to the market microstructure [3][4]. - The data presented is based on various sources, including EPFR and IHS Markit, providing a comprehensive view of the current market landscape [3][4][9]. Conclusion - The Chinese Growth/Tech sector is currently facing challenges with net selling from active managers and passive fund outflows, while hedge funds are adjusting their short positions. The overall sentiment appears cautious, with a focus on risk management rather than aggressive investment strategies.

ab Global Research and Evidence Lab 17 April 2024 APAC Economic Perspectives Economics ASEAN: Oil, the Fed, and central bank reaction Asia functions Grace Lim Economist grace-k.lim@ubs.com +65-6495 5965 Risks to inflation and US rate cuts imply bar to easing is higher Rohit Arora Events of the past few weeks have significant implications for ASEAN central bank Strategist reaction functions. Given a resilient US economy and sticky inflation, the Fed is unlikely rohit-b.arora@ubs.com +65-6495 5232 to cut in a ...

Accessible version Global Research Highlights A spring in inflation’s step Investment Strategy Solid growth, but inflation takes away the punch bowl 2 6 April 2024 The first print of 1Q US GDP showed that the economy grew at a sub-par 1.6% q/q saar. Global This was below our Economics team’s and consensus expectations of 2.5% growth. The Investment Strategy team notes that the largest drags on growth came from trade and inventories, which are BofAS volatile categories where large swings tend to be reversed ...