Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya on Monday recapped takeaways from a tech conference in which 27 companies attended.Representatives from the following companies attended: Nvidia Corp NVDA; Advanced Micro Devices AMD; Intel Corp INTC; Marvell Tech MRVL; Arm Holdings ARM; Coherent COHR; Lumentum Holdings LITE; ON Semiconductor ON; Texas Instruments TXN; Synopsys SNPS; and Lam Research Corp LRCX; KLA Corp KLAC; and Applied Materials AMAT.Arya noted that the overall tone was positive across computi ...

Core Points - Major corporate leaders, including CEOs from Uber, Dell, and Goldman Sachs, are set to announce a collective investment of billions into "Trump accounts" for employees' children [1][2] - The investment commitment will be made during President Trump's "Invest America" roundtable event, which promotes a pilot program that deposits $1,000 from the government into investment accounts for newborn Americans [2] - The program, previously known as "MAGA Accounts," aims to establish index fund accounts with $1,000 in government funds for U.S. citizens born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028 [3] Corporate Participation - Notable participants in the roundtable include: - Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Technologies - Brad Gerstner, CEO of Altimeter Capital - Rene Haas, CEO of Arm Holdings - Parker Harris, CTO of Slack and cofounder of Salesforce - William McDermott, CEO of ServiceNow - Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber - David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs - Vladimir Tenev, cofounder and CEO of Robinhood [4] Legislative Context - The provision for creating these accounts has already passed the House as part of a significant budget bill, which is currently pending in the Senate facing opposition from fiscally conservative Republicans [2]

Key Takeaways Arm's low-power chip architecture continues to anchor its dominance in mobile computing. Apple, Qualcomm, and Samsung increasingly depend on Arm for AI and IoT development. ARM is optimizing for machine learning and edge computing to support client expansion.Arm Holdings’ (ARM) core strength in power-efficient chip architecture continues to secure its leadership in the mobile computing space, but its relevance is growing far beyond smartphones and tablets. Known for enabling sleek, energy-sa ...

Credo and Arm have plenty of room to grow over the next few decades. The artificial intelligence (AI) market has grown like a weed over the past decade. That rapid expansion -- which was fueled by more sophisticated cloud computing services, large language models, and generative AI applications -- lit a blazing fire under some high-growth tech stocks. The most obvious winners are Nvidia, the world's top producer of discrete graphics processing units (GPUs) for processing AI tasks; and Microsoft, which acqui ...

Research and Development - The company reported significant investments in research and development, focusing on new products such as complete compute subsystems and chiplets, to maintain market share and create customer value[376]. - The company has increased its research and development investment to replicate its strong position in markets such as automotive, networking equipment, and cloud computing[378]. - Research and development expenses increased by $92 million, or 5%, to $2,071 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to higher investments in next-generation products[396]. - The company continues to evaluate opportunities for investments and technical partnerships in AI and advanced products, aiming to provide complete systems and custom chips for specific applications[432]. Revenue Model and Financial Performance - The company’s revenue model includes licensing fees and per-chip royalties, with royalty revenue primarily influenced by product adoption and market trends[369]. - The company’s licensing agreements typically include minimum royalty percentages or fees per chip, ensuring a steady revenue stream[372]. - Total revenue increased by $774 million, or 24%, to $4,007 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, compared to $3,233 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024[390]. - Revenue from external customers rose by $675 million, or 27%, driven by a $370 million, or 35%, increase in license and other revenue, and a $305 million, or 21%, increase in royalty revenue[393]. - Net income for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, was $792 million, representing 20% of total revenue, compared to $306 million, or 9% of total revenue, for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024[389]. Compliance and Governance - The company has implemented enhanced compliance and governance functions to meet public company standards, impacting financial reporting costs[358]. - The company is subject to continuous examination of its income tax returns by the United Kingdom and other tax authorities[458]. - The company regularly assesses the likelihood of adverse outcomes from these examinations to determine the adequacy of its provision for income taxes[458]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $2,085 million and short-term investments of $740 million, indicating strong liquidity[406]. - Net cash provided by operating activities decreased by $693 million, or 64%, to $397 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, compared to $1,090 million for the previous fiscal year[409]. - Net cash used for investing activities decreased by $481 million, or 93%, to $35 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, primarily due to a $515 million increase in proceeds from maturity of short-term investments[412]. - Net cash used for financing activities decreased by $6 million, or 3%, to $202 million for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, compared to $208 million for the previous fiscal year[413]. Litigation and Legal Matters - The company is involved in ongoing litigation with Qualcomm and Nuvia, with significant implications for its technology licensing agreements[359][361]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The company expects continued and increasing demand for semiconductors over the long term, driven by macro trends in device manufacturing[419]. - The company plans to allocate greater financial resources towards investment and acquisition opportunities, engaging with partners for technical and financial support[433]. Tax and Deferred Taxes - The effective tax rate decreased to 10% for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, from 44% for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024, primarily due to tax benefits from windfall gains and research tax credits[402]. - The provision for income taxes includes reserves for unrecognized tax benefits, net interest, and penalties[458]. - The company accounts for deferred taxes using the asset and liability method under GAAP, regularly reviewing deferred tax assets for recoverability[457]. International Revenue - Revenue from sales to customers outside of the U.S. accounted for approximately 57% of total revenue for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025[394]. - License revenue from Arm China for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, decreased due to fluctuations in timing and size of high-value license agreements[426]. - Royalty revenue from Arm China for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025, increased due to higher chip shipments and an improved mix of products with higher royalty rates per chip[426].

Industry Overview - The AI industry presents significant growth opportunities, with the overall market expected to grow at an annualized rate of nearly 20% through 2034 according to Precedence Research [1][2]. Company Analysis Arm Holdings - Arm Holdings is a semiconductor design company that licenses chip designs to other manufacturers, generating approximately $4 billion in high-margin revenue annually [6]. - The company is well-positioned in the AI sector due to its power-efficient chip designs, which are crucial as AI technology becomes more mainstream and power-hungry [8][9]. - Arm's revenue is projected to grow around 20% per year over the next three years despite macroeconomic uncertainties [9]. SoundHound AI - SoundHound AI specializes in advanced voice communication technology, having developed its proprietary AI platform, Houndify, since 2015 [12]. - The company is positioned to capture significant growth in the voice-based AI market, which is expected to expand at an annualized rate of nearly 35% through 2034 [14]. - SoundHound's first-quarter revenue increased by 151% year-over-year, showcasing its strong growth trajectory [15]. BigBear.ai - BigBear.ai focuses on AI-powered decision-making software primarily for the private sector, targeting industries such as manufacturing, healthcare, and biopharma [18][19]. - The decision-making segment of the AI industry is forecasted to grow at an average annual pace of 16% through 2034 [20]. - Analysts have set a consensus price target of $6.63 for BigBear.ai, nearly double its current stock price, indicating potential upside for investors [21].

Core Viewpoint - Arm Holdings plc (ARM) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 21.8% over the past three months, which is worse than the industry's decline of 14.4% and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's decline of 7.8% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Position and Expansion - ARM is strategically expanding its presence in the server market, with major companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft adopting Arm-based architectures. It is projected that nearly 50% of new server chips shipped to key hyperscalers in 2025 will be Arm-based, representing a 15% growth from 2024 [5]. - The growth in server chip market share, supported by industry giants, solidifies ARM's position in high-performance computing [5]. Group 2: Business Model and Financial Health - ARM's business model focuses on licensing chip designs and collecting royalties, allowing for consistent revenue generation with minimal capital expenditure. This model, along with strategic partnerships, ensures ARM's relevance in growth areas like automotive and data centers [6]. - ARM has a strong financial position, highlighted by a cash reserve of $2.7 billion and no debt, enhancing its ability to fund R&D and market expansion [6]. - The company's liquidity is impressive, with a current ratio of 5.2 in Q4 fiscal 2025, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 1.38 [7]. Group 3: Revenue and Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARM's first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues is $1.1 billion, indicating an 11.8% growth from the previous year [9]. - However, the consensus estimate for earnings is 39 cents per share, reflecting a 2.5% decline from the year-ago quarter [10]. Group 4: Market Challenges - ARM faces potential challenges due to tariff uncertainties, with 10-20% of its royalty revenues coming from U.S. shipments. Tariff issues could increase costs and harm demand for Arm-based products in the U.S. market [11]. Group 5: Valuation Concerns - ARM's stock is currently considered expensive, trading at approximately 61.13 times forward 12-month earnings per share, compared to the industry's average of 26.62 times. The trailing 12-month EV-to-EBITDA ratio is around 95.34 times, significantly higher than the industry's average of 16.4 times [13]. - Due to the premium valuation, there is a suggestion for investors to be cautious and refrain from buying ARM stock at this time, waiting for a more suitable entry point [15].

Group 1 - The company specializes in providing daily-rebalanced ETP products that include leveraged, unleveraged, inverse, and inverse leveraged factors [1][3] - The research focuses on macroeconomic assessments, strategic sector viability, and market data trends to inform investment decisions [1] - There is a particular interest in Asian markets, including India and China, with in-depth analyses published on economic trends and business narratives [1] Group 2 - The company does not hold any stock or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, ensuring an unbiased perspective in its analyses [2] - The asset under management (AUM) is primarily influenced by investor interest rather than market movements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy focuses on fundamental, bottom-up analysis with an emphasis on long-term quality growth, targeting companies in niche markets with strong growth potential and reasonable valuations [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment style is characterized by a long-term, quality growth orientation, avoiding short-term performance metrics [1]. - The portfolio typically consists of 15-20 stocks, emphasizing diversification, risk management, and macro-driven sector weights [1]. - The target annual return for the portfolio is set at 15% [1]. Group 2: Company Characteristics - The ideal companies for investment are those with strong management teams, sound capital allocation policies, and significant growth potential [1].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4, the company achieved record revenue exceeding $1,000,000,000 for the first time, with full-year revenue surpassing $4,000,000,000 and royalty revenue exceeding $2,000,000,000 [7][8] - Total revenue for Q4 was $1,240,000,000, with royalty revenue growing 18% year-on-year to a record $607,000,000 [13][14] - Licensing revenue increased over 50% year-on-year to a record $634,000,000, driven by demand for ARMv9 technology [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Smartphone royalties increased by 30% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the 2% growth in shipments, indicating a rising value per device [10][14] - The company launched its first ARMv9 Edge AI platform, which has been adopted by major players in the industry [10][11] - Custom silicon demand is driving both licensing and royalty growth, with significant contributions from data centers, automotive, smartphones, and IoT [8][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects up to 50% of new server chips at hyperscalers to be ARM-based this year, reflecting strong momentum in the data center market [8][62] - The automotive sector has shown strong double-digit growth, with ARM gaining market share in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [60] - IoT and embedded markets have seen some slowness, but growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace compared to other sectors [61] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on customization of silicon to differentiate performance and unlock unique features, particularly in automotive and hyperscaler markets [42][44] - There is a strategic shift towards direct relationships with OEMs, which may impact traditional fabless semiconductor companies [42][45] - The company plans to aggressively invest in R&D to support customer needs and capitalize on the growing demand for AI technologies [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in healthy growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties, citing strong visibility into customer design pipelines and contracted royalty rates [20][21] - The company anticipates limited direct impact from tariffs on royalty and licensing revenues, with potential indirect effects on end demand [16][26] - Future revenue growth is expected to enable increased investment in next-generation technologies [19][20] Other Important Information - The company signed a significant multi-year agreement with the Malaysian government to develop an ARM-based AI ecosystem, indicating potential for future sovereign-level licensing deals [66][68] - The company is seeing strong demand for its compute subsystems, which are now shipping in volume, boosting both mobile and cloud royalty revenue [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on revenue - Management clarified that tariffs do not directly impact costs, and any revenue impact would be indirect, primarily affecting demand elasticity [23][25] Question: ARMv9 adoption rate - The adoption rate for ARMv9 has increased to over 30%, driven by custom silicon solutions [32][33] Question: Strategic direction towards OEMs - Management confirmed a trend towards direct relationships with OEMs for customized silicon, which may affect traditional semiconductor companies [42][45] Question: Licensing performance in Q4 - Licensing revenue growth was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 53%, driven by demand for CSS and AI technologies [76][80] Question: Royalty growth by end market - Management indicated strong growth in smartphones and infrastructure, with automotive also showing double-digit growth, while IoT is recovering slowly [60][61] Question: Future of chiplet technology - Management acknowledged the importance of chiplet technology and its integration with ARM's architecture, emphasizing its role in custom silicon solutions [92][95]