ab 6 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research US Aerospace & Defense 2025 Outlook: Favor OE/AM barbell as BA ramps, not expecting DoD cuts but remain selective Key A&D Debates and Top Picks for 2025 In 2025, we see opportunity in both commercial OE and AM, and believe a barbell approach is the best positioning to capture both improving production rates and hedge supply chain risk. We model BA MAX production at 38/mo by October and expect the stock to outperform as the market prices in no ...

January 6, 2025 04:27 PM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific TFT-LCD Panel Price Outlook for Jan-25: TV +1.3% and NB/ Monitor Flat We view risk/reward for panel stocks as skewed more to the upside amid the TV panel price upward trend. OW Innolux and BOE; EW AUO. TV panel prices expected to be+1.3% in January 2025: Mainstream 32", 43", 55", 65" and 75" TV panel prices are expected to be +3%, +2%, +0%, +1%, +1%, respectively, in Jan 2025, implying a 1.3% MoM increase on average for the month. ...

Summary of Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) Investor Event Highlights Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - **Event Date**: January 4, 2025 - **Location**: Macau - **Key Participants**: Chief Strategy Officer Mr. James Mitchell, Tencent Video CEO Mr. Sun Zhonghuai, China Literature CEO Mr. Hou Xiaonan, and the Investor Relations team Key Focus Areas and Topics 1. **Platform Leadership**: - Tencent has demonstrated consistent leadership across multiple internet domains (e.g., Tencent Video, Tencent Pay, Tencent Games) through patience and balanced execution, surpassing competitors over time [2][6][7] - The company has effectively deployed resources such as capital, user traffic, and social graph to maintain its leadership position [2][9] 2. **Generative AI Initiatives**: - Tencent is focusing on critical resources and multi-strategies to explore AI opportunities, leveraging its hyper computing cluster and sophisticated data [2][14] - The company aims to incorporate Gen-AI powered interfaces into the Weixin app, enhancing growth across advertising, games, cloud, and social networks [14] 3. **Tencent Video**: - Tencent Video is solidifying its leadership in online video entertainment, with a focus on high-quality content creation and profitability [2][15] - The platform has seen strong financial performance in 2024, with revenue and profit growth year-over-year, and is prioritizing high-quality content and talent management [15][19] 4. **China Literature**: - The company is developing a three-stage strategy for monetizing its intellectual properties (IPs) from online literature into various entertainment formats, including games, dramas, and merchandise [2][20] - Tencent is gradually expanding its IP monetization efforts overseas [21] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Tencent is expected to see continued revenue growth, with estimates of RMB 715.84 billion in 2025 and RMB 768.06 billion in 2026 [23][26] - **Earnings Growth**: The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 210.99 billion in 2025, with a diluted EPS of RMB 26.44 [23][26] - **Valuation**: Tencent is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 15X for 2025E, with a target price of HK$542, indicating a potential upside of 30.9% from the current price of HK$414.20 [24][26] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include increased competition in performance-based advertising, delays in game launches, and slower-than-expected growth in FinTech and Cloud businesses [24] Additional Insights - Tencent's strategy emphasizes a balance between transformation and execution mindsets, allowing the company to identify industry-changing opportunities while maintaining disciplined operational execution [10][12] - The company has a consistent shareholder return policy and has set a buyback target of HK$112 billion for 2024, reducing its total share count to the lowest level in the past decade [6][24] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and financial outlook for Tencent Holdings as discussed during the investor event, highlighting the company's strategic initiatives, financial performance, and potential risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the semiconductor industry in China, particularly the progress in semiconductor localization and the impact of domestic demand subsidies amid limited tariff effects [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Price Competition in Foundries**: Ongoing price competition in mature node foundries is noted, with some inventory digestion and China's subsidies for consumer electronics purchases contributing to this dynamic [2][3]. 2. **IC Design Sector Performance**: China's integrated circuit (IC) design sector is expected to reach CNY646 billion (approximately US$90 billion) in 2024, reflecting a ~12% year-over-year increase, but this growth lags behind the global semiconductor industry growth estimated at 19% [2][3]. 3. **Company Closures**: Over 14,600 Chinese semiconductor companies closed in 2024, primarily in consumer electronics, semiconductor component distribution, and analog sectors, indicating a normalization in the growth of China's chip design industry [2][3]. 4. **Price Reductions by Chinese Foundries**: Prices for 12-inch wafers from Chinese foundries have decreased by up to 40% compared to Taiwanese companies, with 20-30% discounts on 8-inch wafers. This pricing pressure has been ongoing since mid-2024 [2][3]. 5. **US Trade Investigation**: The Biden Administration has initiated a trade investigation into older Chinese-made "legacy" semiconductors, which may lead to increased tariffs. However, the direct impact on Chinese mature node chip companies is expected to be limited due to low export volumes to the US [2][3]. 6. **Stock Implications**: Caution is advised regarding mature node foundries like UMC and Vanguard due to competition from China, while a positive outlook is maintained for Chinese wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) companies like NAURA and AMEC due to aggressive capital expenditure plans [2][3]. Additional Insights 1. **Semi Equipment Imports**: China's semiconductor equipment imports were valued at US$29 billion from January to November 2024, marking a 20% year-over-year increase, although growth is decelerating [6][7]. 2. **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Development**: China is still behind in HBM technology, with local vendors only able to produce 4-8 layer HBM, while CXMT targets volume production in the second half of 2025 [7][8]. 3. **Self-Sufficiency Projections**: China's semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio is projected to reach 25% by 2026, up from 20% in 2023, driven by weak consumer demand and limited breakthroughs in advanced logic chips [28][29]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The semiconductor market is experiencing a divergence in stock performance, with notable outperformance from companies like Espressif and GigaDevice, attributed to demand from AI applications [10][11]. Conclusion The conference call highlights the challenges and opportunities within China's semiconductor industry, emphasizing the impact of domestic policies, competitive pricing, and the ongoing transition towards greater self-sufficiency in semiconductor production. The insights provided are crucial for understanding the current landscape and future trends in the industry.

January 6, 2025 03:35 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Weekly Database Tracker #1 Weekly primary unit sales were +49% YoY and -43% WoW. Weekly secondary unit sales were +67% YoY and -27% WoW. The total sell-through rate was 68% last week. Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities were +49% YoY (vs. +21% YoY last week) and -43% WoW for the week ended January 5: Tier 1 city sales were +42% YoY (vs. +34% YoY last week) and -37% WoW. Tier 2 city sales were +65% YoY (vs. +22% YoY last week) and -46% WoW. Tier 3 ...

Global | Utilities & Clean Energy *NEXT WEEK* — Data Centers & AI: Powering the Future Series #7 As part of our Data Centers & AI: Powering the Future Series #7, we are pleased to welcome back Brian Janous, Chief Strategy Officer and Co- Founder of Cloverleaf Infrastructure and ex-VP of Energy at Microsoft. Brian will discuss the evolving power demand for AI & data centers, the viability of reviving nuclear power and other potential solutions such as gas PPAs, renewable energy and emerging power technologie ...

January 6, 2025 05:08 AM GMT US Banks | North America How Willing Is Your Bank to Pay Up for Deposits? December 2024 Short-term CD Rates continue to come down, long-term CD rates were stable: In line with the Fed cutting cycle, banks continue to bring down rates offered on short- term (1-12 month) CDs. Rates on Long-term (13-36 month) CDs were stable as banks had already been reducing these offerings well ahead of Fed cuts. CD Rates Data Summary: Investment recommendations: Our Overweight-rated banks (in or ...

Deep Mehta +1(212)357-8419 | deep.mehta@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 5 January 2025 | 9:49PM EST 2024 US Factor Review Ujjwal Mahajan +1(332)245-7708 | ujjwal.mahajan@gs.com Goldman Sachs India SPL Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investm ...

Summary of US Equity Strategy - January 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US equity market, particularly the performance and outlook of major technology companies, referred to as "Big 6 TECH+" which includes Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple [19][22]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has shown a total return of 23.3% in 2024, with a significant recovery since the lows in October 2022 [4][19]. - The "Big 6 TECH+" companies have outperformed the broader market, achieving a total return of 143.2% since October 2022 [19][22]. Economic Indicators - The consensus forecast for nominal GDP growth in 2024 is around 2.8% to 3.2%, indicating a stable economic environment [12][14]. - Interest rates are expected to remain a critical factor, with the 10-year Treasury yield and high-yield (HY) spreads being closely monitored [9][49]. Earnings Growth - The consensus EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2025 is projected at 20.8%, with the "Big 6" expected to contribute significantly to this growth [40][41]. - EPS revisions for "Big 6 TECH+" show a positive trend, with Nvidia and Amazon leading with 3.0% and 11.0% increases in 2024 estimates, respectively [35][32]. Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio for "Big 6 TECH+" stands at 29.2, compared to the S&P 500 ex-Big 6 at 19.1, indicating a premium valuation for tech stocks [36]. - The report highlights the importance of free cash flow (FCF) as a percentage of sales, with "Big 6 TECH+" showing strong performance in this area [46]. Market Sentiment and Risks - There is a noted concern regarding potential recessionary pressures, with futures implying Fed cuts expected in the near term [15][17]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to remain cautious, as market conditions can change rapidly due to economic shifts and interest rate adjustments [54]. Additional Important Insights - The "Big 6" companies represent a significant portion of the S&P 500 market cap, accounting for 31.2% [20][22]. - The report discusses the implications of valuation methods and the potential risks associated with high valuations in the tech sector [54][87]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the US Equity Strategy report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future outlook for investors.

Global Research ab 6 January 2025 Quant Navigator Quant Models for Fundamental Investors: Opportunities & Risk, Dec Update Quant Navigator: Leveraging Quant Tools with Human Insights Quantitative tools enable us to analyze large volumes of historical information. Where quant models are at a disadvantage, we can leverage human insights to make more informed investment decisions. By combining human insights with machine analytics, we're able to address the various sources of return variation (beta, macro, sty ...