Key Takeaways **Industry or Company Involved:** - Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK, 1810 HK) **Core Points and Arguments:** - **2024 EV Shipments**: Xiaomi's EV delivery volume exceeded 135k units in 2024, surpassing its annual delivery target [2]. - **2025 Shipments Target**: The company has raised its 2025 EV shipments target to 300k units, an increase from the previous target of ~250k units [2]. - **Product Mix Change**: In 2025, Xiaomi will introduce the SU7 Ultra and YU7 models, which are expected to have higher ASPs than the SU7 Basic, Pro, and Max models in 2024. This is expected to drive higher ASPs and better EV margins [3]. - **Execution in EV Business**: Xiaomi's strong delivery volume in 2024 and the higher shipment target for 2025 indicate excellent execution in the new EV business [3]. **Other Important Points:** - **Analyst's View**: The analyst maintains a positive view on Xiaomi's EV business and believes an upward revision of the shipment target is likely in 2025 [3]. - **Valuation Methodology**: The base case valuation uses a residual income (RI) model derived from the sum-of-the-parts methodology. The CoE for the smartphone business, IoT, and Internet Services is 11%, 11%, and 11.4%, respectively, with terminal growth rates of 3%, 3%, and 6% [8]. - **Risks**: Risks to upside include better-than-expected customer feedback for the first EV, good ramp-up for offline expansion in China, higher market share gain in overseas markets, and continued fierce EV competition in 2025. Risks to downside include smartphone gross margin pressure from inventory destocking and weak demand, and more concerns about smart EV investment [11]. **Additional Information:** - The document includes disclosures regarding the relationship between Morgan Stanley and the companies covered in its research, as well as important regulatory disclosures on subject companies [13, 16-19]. - The document also provides information on Morgan Stanley's stock ratings system and global stock ratings distribution [24-26]. - The document includes important disclosures for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC customers and other important disclosures [35-37]. - The document provides information on Morgan Stanley's research policy, terms of use, and privacy policy [38-40]. - The document includes important regulatory disclosures on subject companies and other important disclosures [41-45]. - The document provides information on Morgan Stanley's industry coverage and stock ratings for various companies in the Greater China Technology Hardware sector [56-57].

Key Points 1. **Industry**: Global Internet Companies 2. **Document Type**: Valuation and Market Cap Comparison 3. **Date**: January 2, 2025 4. **Source**: J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 5. **Coverage**: Companies across various regions including the U.S., China, Korea, Europe, Latin America, and ASEAN Key Points by Region U.S. 1. **Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)**: Market Cap of $2.355 trillion, GAAP P/E of 42.2x, Non-GAAP P/E of 37.9x, EV/EBITDA of 25%, and EV/FCF of 25%. 2. **Alphabet Inc (GOOGL)**: Market Cap of $2.351 trillion, GAAP P/E of 23.4x, Non-GAAP P/E of 20.9x, EV/EBITDA of 21%, and EV/FCF of 21%. 3. **Meta (META)**: Market Cap of $1.522 trillion, GAAP P/E of 25.9x, Non-GAAP P/E of 22.6x, EV/EBITDA of 21%, and EV/FCF of 21%. China 1. **Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)**: Market Cap of $465.246 billion, GAAP P/E of 19.8x, Non-GAAP P/E of 17.6x, EV/EBITDA of 36%, and EV/FCF of 28%. 2. **Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)**: Market Cap of $204.789 billion, GAAP P/E of 14.2x, Non-GAAP P/E of 10.9x, EV/EBITDA of 21%, and EV/FCF of 6%. 3. **Pinduoduo Inc (PDD US)**: Market Cap of $134.697 billion, GAAP P/E of 9.2x, Non-GAAP P/E of 8.5x, EV/EBITDA of 40%, and EV/FCF of 40%. Korea 1. **Coupang (CPNG US)**: Market Cap of $39.539 billion, GAAP P/E of 34.3x, Non-GAAP P/E of 34.3x, EV/EBITDA of 27.1x, and EV/FCF of 15.3x. 2. **Naver (035420 KS)**: Market Cap of $20.766 billion, GAAP P/E of 18.5x, Non-GAAP P/E of 17.1x, EV/EBITDA of 10.9x, and EV/FCF of 9.1x. 3. **NCSoft (036570 KS)**: Market Cap of $2.702 billion, GAAP P/E of 22.6x, Non-GAAP P/E of 18.8x, EV/EBITDA of 15.9x, and EV/FCF of 10.3x. Europe 1. **Prosus (PRX NA)**: Market Cap of €97.158 billion, GAAP P/E of 11.6x, Non-GAAP P/E of 9.8x, EV/EBITDA of 45%, and EV/FCF of 45%. 2. **Zalando (ZAL GR)**: Market Cap of €8.850 billion, GAAP P/E of 35.2x, Non-GAAP P/E of 32.4x, EV/EBITDA of 25.6x, and EV/FCF of 26.5x. 3. **Auto Trader (AUTO LN)**: Market Cap of £793 million, GAAP P/E of 25.8x, Non-GAAP P/E of 23.6x, EV/EBITDA of 18.8x, and EV/FCF of 17.0x. Latin America 1. **MercadoLibre, Inc (MELI US)**: Market Cap of $86.208 billion, GAAP P/E of 50.6x, Non-GAAP P/E of 39.2x, EV/EBITDA of 26.8x, and EV/FCF of 20.0x. 2. **Magazine Luiza (MGLU3 BZ)**: Market Cap of R$8.29 billion, GAAP P/E of 11.8x, Non-GAAP P/E of 10.3x, EV/EBITDA of 1.8x, and EV/FCF of 1.6x. ASEAN 1. **Sea Ltd (SE US)**: Market Cap of $60.725 billion, GAAP P/E of 37.9x, Non-GAAP P/E of 37.9x, EV/EBITDA of 48.9x, and EV/FCF of 25.5x. 2. **Grab Holdings Ltd (GRAB US)**: Market Cap of $19.007 billion, GAAP P/E of 67.4x, Non-GAAP P/E of 67.4x, EV/EBITDA of 94.4x, and EV/FCF of 33.7x. 3. **Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)**: Market Cap of Rp125 billion, GAAP P/E of 23.3x, Non-GAAP P/E of 18.8x, EV/EBITDA of 23.3x, and EV/FCF of 18.8x. Additional Notes 1. **Non-GAAP EPS**: Excludes the impact of stock-based compensation. 2. **Adj. EBITDA**: Excludes stock-based compensation except for BKNG & SFIX. 3. **Fiscal Year End**: Varies by company. 4. **Source**: Company Reports, Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan estimates

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Chemicals * **Company**: Ecolab Inc. (ECL) * **Market Cap**: $68.2B * **Ticker**: ECL Key Points 1. EPS and Financial Projections * **2024E EPS**: $6.62 * **2025E EPS**: $7.55 * **2026E EPS**: $8.55 * **2027E EPS CAGR**: 13.5% * **FCF**: $2B/yr (~$7.05/sh, 3% FCF yield) * **Buybacks and M&A**: ~$2B/yr * **Net Debt/EBITDA**: 2.1x by YE27E 2. Revenue and Growth * **2024E Revenue**: $16,078MM * **2025E Revenue**: $16,905MM * **2026E Revenue**: $17,813MM * **2026E Organic Sales Growth**: 5% * **Acquisitions**: Add $0.10-$0.15 to EPS 3. Valuation * **Target Multiple**: 35x 2026E EPS ($300 price target) * **Upside Scenario**: $366, +54% * **Downside Scenario**: $140, -41% 4. Growth Drivers * **Emerging Markets Penetration** * **Market Share Gains in Core Geographies** * **Cost Savings** * **Disciplined Pricing Actions** * **Effective Use of Cash for M&A** 5. ESG Initiatives * **100% Renewable Energy by 2030** * **Halve Carbon Emissions by 2030** * **Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2050** * **Reduce Water Impact by 40% per Unit Production from 2018** * **Increase Management-Level Gender Diversity to 35%** * **Increase Management-Level Ethnic/Racial Diversity to 25%** 6. Risks * **Dilutive M&A** * **Competitive Dynamics** * **Macroeconomic Uncertainty** * **Raw Material Inflation** * **European Economic Slowdown** Conclusion Ecolab Inc. is a leading chemicals company with a strong growth outlook and a commitment to sustainability. The company's focus on emerging markets, cost savings, and disciplined pricing actions should drive revenue growth and EPS expansion. However, risks such as dilutive M&A and competitive dynamics need to be monitored.

Key Points **Industry/Company Involved**: - Tesla Inc (TSLA US) **Core Views and Arguments**: 1. **4Q24 Deliveries Missed**: Tesla's 4Q24 deliveries came in at 496k, 3% below the VA consensus. This missed the company's guidance of "slight growth in 2024" and raised concerns about the company's ability to achieve its ambitious 20-30% delivery growth target in 2025. [2] 2. **Production Weakness**: Production in 4Q24 was weak, down 7% YoY and 7% below deliveries. This could imply soft sales development into 1Q25. [2] 3. **Energy Storage Strength**: The Energy Storage business saw strong growth with 11GWh deployed in 4Q24, up 245% YoY and 60% QoQ. However, this was not enough to offset the auto weakness. [2] 4. **Sequential Weaker Earnings Expected**: TSLA is expected to report sequentially weaker earnings in 4Q24e, with the group gross margin down 100bps QoQ. [3] 5. **Uncertainty in Pre-revenue Opportunities**: The realization of pre-revenue opportunities, such as autonomous vehicles, remains uncertain due to regulatory approval and commercialization challenges. [3] 6. **Maintain Reduce Rating**: HSBC maintains a Reduce rating on TSLA with a target price of USD140.00, implying 65% downside to the current share price. [4] **Other Important Points**: 1. **Valuation**: The valuation approach used by HSBC is a 50:50 weighted average of DCF and peer multiples-based valuation. [4] 2. **Upside Risks**: Upside risks include the launch of new BEV models and market enthusiasm for Tesla's AI endeavors and associated projects. [4] 3. **Financial Ratios**: TSLA's financial ratios, such as PE, EV/EBITDA, and ROE, are compared to peers and industry benchmarks. [7] 4. **Price Relative**: TSLA's stock is compared to the S&P 500 and other tech peers in terms of valuation multiples. [18] 5. **Rating Distribution**: HSBC's rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities is presented, showing the percentage of ratings assigned to Buy, Hold, and Sell. [51] 6. **Share Price and Rating Changes**: TSLA's share price performance and rating history are discussed, showing changes over time. [52] 7. **Disclosures**: Important disclosures related to the report, including analyst certifications and potential conflicts of interest, are provided. [45-58] 8. **Disclaimer**: The report includes a disclaimer stating that the opinions contained within are based upon publicly available information and are subject to change without notice. [65]

Key Takeaways Industry or Company Involved * **Tesla Inc (TSLA.O, TSLA US)**: The focus of the document is on Tesla Inc, a leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer. Core Views and Arguments * **4Q Delivery Miss**: Tesla missed its delivery expectations by 3% in 4Q, primarily due to a relatively aged product lineup and increased competition from lower-priced EVs ahead of the introduction of the new, cheaper model (Juniper) in early/mid-2025. * **Inventory Reduction**: Despite the delivery miss, Tesla achieved a 6 to 7-day reduction in days' supply of inventory in 4Q, driven by delivering 36k more units than it produced. This resulted in a ~$1.6bn working capital inflow during the quarter. * **Energy Storage Deployment**: Tesla's energy storage deployments exceeded expectations by 15% in 4Q, with 11.0 GWh deployed vs. 9.09 GWh expected. This brought the annual growth rate to 113% y/y compared to 2023. * **Valuation**: Morgan Stanley's price target for Tesla is $400.00, based on a valuation methodology that considers the core Tesla Auto business, Tesla Mobility, third-party supplier, energy, and network services. Other Important Content * **Morgan Stanley's Stock Rating**: Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tesla, with an industry view of "In-Line" and a price target of $400.00. * **Risks**: The document highlights various risks to Tesla's upside and downside, including competition, execution risk, market recognition of new services, China risk, and valuation. * **Analyst Certification**: Adam Jonas, CFA, the lead analyst on the report, certifies that their views are accurately expressed and that they have not received compensation for expressing specific recommendations or views. References * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='15']

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Hong Kong retail sales** sector, highlighting a significant decline in sales figures and the performance of various retail categories. Key Points 1. **Retail Sales Performance** - Hong Kong's retail sales fell by **8.3% year-on-year (oya)** in November, aligning with J.P. Morgan's forecast of **-8.6%** and significantly worse than the market consensus of **-5.4%**. This decline widened from **4.8%** in October [1][2][3] - For the first **11 months of 2024**, retail sales volume decreased by **8.7% oya**, while in value terms, sales dropped by **7.3% oya** [1][2] 2. **Monthly Trends** - Seasonally adjusted retail sales volume showed a slight increase of **0.3% month-on-month (m/m)**, marking the third consecutive month of gains. The underlying trend growth improved to **9.7%** on a **3-month annualized rate** by November, following a prolonged contraction [1][2] 3. **Sector-Specific Performance** - **Electronics and consumer durable goods** led the recovery in September and October but saw a sharp decline of **21.5% oya** in November. This followed previous gains of **4.7%** and **18.7%** in the prior months [2] - Conversely, **jewelry, watches, and valuable gifts** experienced solid growth, with retail sales increasing by **16.5% m/m** in November, building on a **7.5%** rise in October [2] 4. **Economic Factors Impacting Retail Sales** - The strength of the **Hong Kong dollar (HKD)** and a prolonged high-interest rate environment are expected to continue exerting pressure on local retail sales. The anticipated policy changes following the U.S. elections, including tariff hikes on Chinese exports and tax cuts, may lead to higher inflation and slower Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - The resumption of the **Individual Visit Scheme** for Shenzhen residents may attract more tourists, but the overall impact on retail sales is expected to be limited due to soft domestic consumption in mainland China [3] 5. **Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook** - An incomplete recovery in the labor market, muted wage growth, and a negative wealth effect from the ongoing housing market correction suggest that local private consumption will remain under pressure in 2025 [3] Additional Insights - The report indicates a divergence in performance across major retail sectors, with some categories like clothing and footwear showing modest gains, while others like consumer durables are struggling [2] - The overall economic environment, including external factors such as U.S. policy changes, is likely to have a significant impact on Hong Kong's retail landscape moving forward [3]

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) * **Industry**: Spirits and Liquor * **Date**: 2 January 2025 * **Event**: Preliminary results announcement for fiscal year 2024 Key Financial Highlights * **Revenue**: Rmb173.8bn, up 15.4% yoy * **Net Profit**: Rmb85.7bn, up 14.7% yoy * **Implied 4Q24 Revenue**: Rmb50.7bn, up 12.0% yoy * **Implied 4Q24 Net Profit**: Rmb24.9bn, up 13.8% yoy Revenue Breakdown * **Moutai Spirits**: Rmb145.8bn, up 15.2% yoy * **Series Spirits**: Rmb24.6bn, up 19.2% yoy Profit Margins * **Implied NPM**: 49.3%, down -0.3ppt yoy Production Volume * **Moutai Spirits**: 56.3k ton, -1.5% yoy * **Series Spirits**: 48.1k ton, up 12% yoy Key Developments * **Wholesale Price**: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale price/bottle maintained flattish at Rmb2,290. Unpacked Feitian Moutai's wholesale price/bottle decreased by Rmb10 to Rmb2,220. * **Wholesaler Quota**: Management intends to adjust the wholesaler quota of Feitian Moutai and various Moutai spirits SKUs to enhance channel penetration. * **Series Spirits Sales Target**: Management targets sales growth of series spirits in 2025 of not lower than the listco's average top line growth in the past five years (i.e. 14% sales CAGR in 2018-23). * **Marketing Expenses**: Management will increase series spirits related marketing expenses by Rmb1.5bn in 2025 (50%+ vs 2024). Valuation and Rating * **Stock Price**: Trading at 20x 2025 P/E with 3.8% dividend yield * **Rating**: Reiterate Buy rating * **Price Target**: Rmb1,990 based on a 26.5x 2025E P/E Key Risks * **Regulation Changes**: Potential regulation changes such as a consumption tax rate hike * **Environmental Pollution** * **Macroeconomic Recovery**: A slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery * **Capacity Constraints** * **US Rate Hikes**: More volatility in US rate hikes given the negative correlation between Moutai's P/E and the US 10-yr bond yield

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Derek R. Bingham +1(415)249-7435 | derek.bingham@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brendan Corbett +1(415)249-7440 | brendan.corbett@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Varsha Venugopal +1(415)393-7554 | varsha.venugopal@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brian Singer, CFA +1(212)902-8259 | brian.singer@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Evan Tylenda, CFA +44(20)7774-1153 | evan.tylenda@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Emma Jones +61(2)9320-1041 | emma.jones@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Indian power sector, focusing on electricity demand, supply, and infrastructure. * **Key Companies**: NTPC Ltd., Adani Green Energy Ltd., ReNew Power, Power Finance Corp Ltd., Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd., IEX, and Adani Green Energy Ltd. Key Themes and Observations * **Power Demand and Supply**: * **Demand**: Expected to grow at 0.9x real GDP in FY26, with rooftop solar expected to erode net demand growth by 15-20%. * **Supply**: Shortages expected to continue in CY25, with potential for easing in the second half due to increased thermal capacity. * **Battery Storage**: Expected to play a significant role, with 3 GW of battery tenders in 2024 and significant potential for growth in CY25. * **Renewables**: Expected to see a slowdown in tendering due to transmission charges and import barriers. * **Transmission**: Grid capex plans have peaked, with limited room for further government estimates to increase. * **DISCOMs**: Key metrics have worsened, but there is a belief in directional improvement due to central government push. * **Solar PV**: Brighter outlook for solar cells, with potential for higher profits due to strong government stance and challenges in importing equipment from China. * **Valuations**: All preferred names are below or in-line with global median. * **Investment Implications**: * **Outperform**: NTPC, ReNew Power, Power Finance Corp Ltd., Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. * **Underperform**: IEX, Adani Green Energy Ltd. Detailed Analysis * **Power Demand**: * Expected to grow at 0.9x real GDP in FY26, with rooftop solar expected to erode net demand growth by 15-20%. * Demand growth expected to slow down to 0.8x real GDP in FY25 due to cooler weather expectations, high base, and impact of rooftop solar. * Long-term view of 1x real GDP growth for India's power demand. * **Power Supply**: * Shortages expected to continue in CY25, with potential for easing in the second half due to increased thermal capacity. * Limited dispatchable supply expected to meet incremental non-solar power demand. * Significant potential for growth in battery storage and renewables. * **Battery Storage**: * 3 GW of battery tenders in 2024, with significant potential for growth in CY25. * Battery prices expected to continue to decline, making storage more affordable. * Potential for impact on new pumped storage, wind generation, and thermal plants. * **Renewables**: * Expected to see a slowdown in tendering due to transmission charges and import barriers. * Transmission charges to apply to renewable plants commissioned after June 2025. * Potential for higher costs for DISCOMs, leading to lower interest in signing PPAs and for new tenders. * **Transmission**: * Grid capex plans have peaked, with limited room for further government estimates to increase. * NEP-II on transmission has Rs 9 trillion plan considering ~460 GW of generation capacity addition. * Potential for increased tendering activity in the short term. * **DISCOMs**: * Key metrics have worsened, with rising AT&C losses and limited tariff hikes. * Belief in directional improvement due to central government push. * **Solar PV**: * Brighter outlook for solar cells, with potential for higher profits due to strong government stance and challenges in importing equipment from China. * Entry of Reliance could be a key negative for solar modules. * Industry checks suggest a very tight market with 'domestic cells' selling at 16-17 cents/w. Conclusion The Indian power sector is expected to face challenges in the short term, with demand growth expected to slow down and supply shortages continuing. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, with significant potential for growth in battery storage, renewables, and transmission infrastructure. The report provides a detailed analysis of the key themes and investment implications for various companies in the sector.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 | Jefferies | | --- | 2 January 2025 Warning signs Uluwatu Estate A key issue facing investors at the start of 2025 is the self-evident contradictory nature of the President-elect Donald Trump's policy agenda and how those contradictions are resolved. Still investors were not letting such issues bother them too much in the final weeks of last year. At least such was the case in America. The US stock market ended last year in a bullish frenzy. The focus was on the deregulation dr ...