Key Takeaways Industry or Company Involved * **Tesla Inc (TSLA.O, TSLA US)**: The focus of the document is on Tesla Inc, a leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer. Core Views and Arguments * **4Q Delivery Miss**: Tesla missed its delivery expectations by 3% in 4Q, primarily due to a relatively aged product lineup and increased competition from lower-priced EVs ahead of the introduction of the new, cheaper model (Juniper) in early/mid-2025. * **Inventory Reduction**: Despite the delivery miss, Tesla achieved a 6 to 7-day reduction in days' supply of inventory in 4Q, driven by delivering 36k more units than it produced. This resulted in a ~$1.6bn working capital inflow during the quarter. * **Energy Storage Deployment**: Tesla's energy storage deployments exceeded expectations by 15% in 4Q, with 11.0 GWh deployed vs. 9.09 GWh expected. This brought the annual growth rate to 113% y/y compared to 2023. * **Valuation**: Morgan Stanley's price target for Tesla is $400.00, based on a valuation methodology that considers the core Tesla Auto business, Tesla Mobility, third-party supplier, energy, and network services. Other Important Content * **Morgan Stanley's Stock Rating**: Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Tesla, with an industry view of "In-Line" and a price target of $400.00. * **Risks**: The document highlights various risks to Tesla's upside and downside, including competition, execution risk, market recognition of new services, China risk, and valuation. * **Analyst Certification**: Adam Jonas, CFA, the lead analyst on the report, certifies that their views are accurately expressed and that they have not received compensation for expressing specific recommendations or views. References * [doc id='2'] * [doc id='5'] * [doc id='6'] * [doc id='10'] * [doc id='15']

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Hong Kong retail sales** sector, highlighting a significant decline in sales figures and the performance of various retail categories. Key Points 1. **Retail Sales Performance** - Hong Kong's retail sales fell by **8.3% year-on-year (oya)** in November, aligning with J.P. Morgan's forecast of **-8.6%** and significantly worse than the market consensus of **-5.4%**. This decline widened from **4.8%** in October [1][2][3] - For the first **11 months of 2024**, retail sales volume decreased by **8.7% oya**, while in value terms, sales dropped by **7.3% oya** [1][2] 2. **Monthly Trends** - Seasonally adjusted retail sales volume showed a slight increase of **0.3% month-on-month (m/m)**, marking the third consecutive month of gains. The underlying trend growth improved to **9.7%** on a **3-month annualized rate** by November, following a prolonged contraction [1][2] 3. **Sector-Specific Performance** - **Electronics and consumer durable goods** led the recovery in September and October but saw a sharp decline of **21.5% oya** in November. This followed previous gains of **4.7%** and **18.7%** in the prior months [2] - Conversely, **jewelry, watches, and valuable gifts** experienced solid growth, with retail sales increasing by **16.5% m/m** in November, building on a **7.5%** rise in October [2] 4. **Economic Factors Impacting Retail Sales** - The strength of the **Hong Kong dollar (HKD)** and a prolonged high-interest rate environment are expected to continue exerting pressure on local retail sales. The anticipated policy changes following the U.S. elections, including tariff hikes on Chinese exports and tax cuts, may lead to higher inflation and slower Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - The resumption of the **Individual Visit Scheme** for Shenzhen residents may attract more tourists, but the overall impact on retail sales is expected to be limited due to soft domestic consumption in mainland China [3] 5. **Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook** - An incomplete recovery in the labor market, muted wage growth, and a negative wealth effect from the ongoing housing market correction suggest that local private consumption will remain under pressure in 2025 [3] Additional Insights - The report indicates a divergence in performance across major retail sectors, with some categories like clothing and footwear showing modest gains, while others like consumer durables are struggling [2] - The overall economic environment, including external factors such as U.S. policy changes, is likely to have a significant impact on Hong Kong's retail landscape moving forward [3]

Company and Industry Overview * **Company**: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) * **Industry**: Spirits and Liquor * **Date**: 2 January 2025 * **Event**: Preliminary results announcement for fiscal year 2024 Key Financial Highlights * **Revenue**: Rmb173.8bn, up 15.4% yoy * **Net Profit**: Rmb85.7bn, up 14.7% yoy * **Implied 4Q24 Revenue**: Rmb50.7bn, up 12.0% yoy * **Implied 4Q24 Net Profit**: Rmb24.9bn, up 13.8% yoy Revenue Breakdown * **Moutai Spirits**: Rmb145.8bn, up 15.2% yoy * **Series Spirits**: Rmb24.6bn, up 19.2% yoy Profit Margins * **Implied NPM**: 49.3%, down -0.3ppt yoy Production Volume * **Moutai Spirits**: 56.3k ton, -1.5% yoy * **Series Spirits**: 48.1k ton, up 12% yoy Key Developments * **Wholesale Price**: Original case Feitian Moutai's wholesale price/bottle maintained flattish at Rmb2,290. Unpacked Feitian Moutai's wholesale price/bottle decreased by Rmb10 to Rmb2,220. * **Wholesaler Quota**: Management intends to adjust the wholesaler quota of Feitian Moutai and various Moutai spirits SKUs to enhance channel penetration. * **Series Spirits Sales Target**: Management targets sales growth of series spirits in 2025 of not lower than the listco's average top line growth in the past five years (i.e. 14% sales CAGR in 2018-23). * **Marketing Expenses**: Management will increase series spirits related marketing expenses by Rmb1.5bn in 2025 (50%+ vs 2024). Valuation and Rating * **Stock Price**: Trading at 20x 2025 P/E with 3.8% dividend yield * **Rating**: Reiterate Buy rating * **Price Target**: Rmb1,990 based on a 26.5x 2025E P/E Key Risks * **Regulation Changes**: Potential regulation changes such as a consumption tax rate hike * **Environmental Pollution** * **Macroeconomic Recovery**: A slower-than-expected macroeconomic recovery * **Capacity Constraints** * **US Rate Hikes**: More volatility in US rate hikes given the negative correlation between Moutai's P/E and the US 10-yr bond yield

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Derek R. Bingham +1(415)249-7435 | derek.bingham@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brendan Corbett +1(415)249-7440 | brendan.corbett@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Varsha Venugopal +1(415)393-7554 | varsha.venugopal@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Brian Singer, CFA +1(212)902-8259 | brian.singer@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Evan Tylenda, CFA +44(20)7774-1153 | evan.tylenda@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Emma Jones +61(2)9320-1041 | emma.jones@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Indian power sector, focusing on electricity demand, supply, and infrastructure. * **Key Companies**: NTPC Ltd., Adani Green Energy Ltd., ReNew Power, Power Finance Corp Ltd., Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd., IEX, and Adani Green Energy Ltd. Key Themes and Observations * **Power Demand and Supply**: * **Demand**: Expected to grow at 0.9x real GDP in FY26, with rooftop solar expected to erode net demand growth by 15-20%. * **Supply**: Shortages expected to continue in CY25, with potential for easing in the second half due to increased thermal capacity. * **Battery Storage**: Expected to play a significant role, with 3 GW of battery tenders in 2024 and significant potential for growth in CY25. * **Renewables**: Expected to see a slowdown in tendering due to transmission charges and import barriers. * **Transmission**: Grid capex plans have peaked, with limited room for further government estimates to increase. * **DISCOMs**: Key metrics have worsened, but there is a belief in directional improvement due to central government push. * **Solar PV**: Brighter outlook for solar cells, with potential for higher profits due to strong government stance and challenges in importing equipment from China. * **Valuations**: All preferred names are below or in-line with global median. * **Investment Implications**: * **Outperform**: NTPC, ReNew Power, Power Finance Corp Ltd., Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. * **Underperform**: IEX, Adani Green Energy Ltd. Detailed Analysis * **Power Demand**: * Expected to grow at 0.9x real GDP in FY26, with rooftop solar expected to erode net demand growth by 15-20%. * Demand growth expected to slow down to 0.8x real GDP in FY25 due to cooler weather expectations, high base, and impact of rooftop solar. * Long-term view of 1x real GDP growth for India's power demand. * **Power Supply**: * Shortages expected to continue in CY25, with potential for easing in the second half due to increased thermal capacity. * Limited dispatchable supply expected to meet incremental non-solar power demand. * Significant potential for growth in battery storage and renewables. * **Battery Storage**: * 3 GW of battery tenders in 2024, with significant potential for growth in CY25. * Battery prices expected to continue to decline, making storage more affordable. * Potential for impact on new pumped storage, wind generation, and thermal plants. * **Renewables**: * Expected to see a slowdown in tendering due to transmission charges and import barriers. * Transmission charges to apply to renewable plants commissioned after June 2025. * Potential for higher costs for DISCOMs, leading to lower interest in signing PPAs and for new tenders. * **Transmission**: * Grid capex plans have peaked, with limited room for further government estimates to increase. * NEP-II on transmission has Rs 9 trillion plan considering ~460 GW of generation capacity addition. * Potential for increased tendering activity in the short term. * **DISCOMs**: * Key metrics have worsened, with rising AT&C losses and limited tariff hikes. * Belief in directional improvement due to central government push. * **Solar PV**: * Brighter outlook for solar cells, with potential for higher profits due to strong government stance and challenges in importing equipment from China. * Entry of Reliance could be a key negative for solar modules. * Industry checks suggest a very tight market with 'domestic cells' selling at 16-17 cents/w. Conclusion The Indian power sector is expected to face challenges in the short term, with demand growth expected to slow down and supply shortages continuing. However, the long-term outlook remains positive, with significant potential for growth in battery storage, renewables, and transmission infrastructure. The report provides a detailed analysis of the key themes and investment implications for various companies in the sector.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 | Jefferies | | --- | 2 January 2025 Warning signs Uluwatu Estate A key issue facing investors at the start of 2025 is the self-evident contradictory nature of the President-elect Donald Trump's policy agenda and how those contradictions are resolved. Still investors were not letting such issues bother them too much in the final weeks of last year. At least such was the case in America. The US stock market ended last year in a bullish frenzy. The focus was on the deregulation dr ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 01:07 PM GMT Global Technology M Global Idea AI Supply Chain: CES Preview, Key Checkpoint for AI PC It remains to be seen whether the new features in AI PC at CES would lead to better graphic demand. Meanwhile, we see smaller possibility of NVIDIA's WoA AI PC chip launch (Computex more likely), as software compatibility may take more time. What to expect? CES is the largest consumer electronics trade show. In recent years, AI + IoT have been the key focus. For ot ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Hardware & Networking** industry, with specific attention to companies like **Apple**, **Dell**, **Cisco**, and various optical and networking firms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Apple's Stock Resilience**: Apple is expected to show resilience in its stock performance throughout 2025, particularly during the iPhone 17 cycle, as investors anticipate the benefits of the AI cycle. The premium earnings multiple is likely to remain intact until clearer signs of Edge AI proliferation emerge, benefiting consumer devices like smartphones and PCs [2][3]. 2. **Edge AI as a Major Investment Theme**: Edge AI is projected to remain a core investment theme by the end of 2025, contrasting with the uncertain sentiment surrounding AI infrastructure for hyperscalers. The demand for AI applications at the Edge is still in its infancy, presenting significant opportunities for development [3][4]. 3. **Efficiency and Cost Savings from AI**: The benefits of AI investments for enterprises are expected to be primarily measured in terms of efficiency and cost savings rather than direct revenue increases by the end of 2025 [3][4]. 4. **Hardware Companies' Favorable Environment**: The enterprise AI infrastructure environment is anticipated to become more favorable for hardware companies by the end of 2025, with a gradual shift towards on-premises infrastructure, benefiting companies like Dell and Cisco [4][5]. 5. **Investor Sentiment Challenges for AI-Levered Suppliers**: Companies heavily invested in AI may face challenges in investor sentiment during the first half of the year due to uncertainty regarding revenue momentum. Confirmation of momentum is expected to come with improved supply and guidance from companies in the second quarter [5][7]. 6. **Tighter Share Price Performance Dispersion**: A tighter dispersion of share price performance is expected in 2025 compared to 2024, as investors seek value in lagging stocks amidst a recovery in demand drivers [6][7]. 7. **Consolidation in Cyclical Markets**: There is an expectation of consolidation among equipment suppliers in cyclical markets such as Telco, Enterprise, and Cable/MSO, driven by a cyclical recovery in customer spending [8][9]. 8. **Favorable Outlook for Contract Manufacturers**: Contract manufacturers are likely to be viewed more favorably by investors compared to OEMs due to their leverage to AI-led growth and lower associated risks [9][10]. 9. **Tariff Headwinds Less Impactful**: Concerns regarding tariff-related headwinds are expected to be less impactful than previously feared, with companies under coverage likely to end the year with higher earnings multiples [10][11]. 10. **Challenges in Autonomous and Electric Vehicle Technologies**: The commercial success of autonomous and electric vehicle technologies remains uncertain, with potential challenges arising from a lowered growth outlook and uncertain vehicle model launch roadmaps [11][12]. Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring guidance from optical and networking companies like Coherent, Lumentum, and Arista as key indicators for investor sentiment and market performance [7][8]. - The overall sentiment in the hardware and networking sector is cautious but optimistic, with a focus on the evolving landscape of AI and its implications for various companies within the industry [3][4][5].

Summary of India Strategy Outlook Company/Industry Involved - Focus on the Indian economy and market outlook for 2025 Core Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Strategy Shift**: After a year of caution regarding macro and earnings risks, the recommendation is to start buying selectively in the Indian market [1][2][3] 2. **Economic Slowdown**: The Indian economy has shown signs of slowing down, with a depreciation of the currency and weak GDP numbers. The Nifty index is projected to reach 26,500 by the end of 2025, representing a 12% return [2][4][58] 3. **Market Corrections**: A significant market correction of approximately 9.8% has occurred, with the Indian Rupee (INR) depreciating by about 2.4%. The next quarter is critical as focus shifts back to growth [3][4] 4. **Historical Context**: The current economic situation is compared to 2005, where similar trends were observed. The expectation is for a recovery within 2-3 quarters, similar to past cycles [3][8][10] 5. **Government Capex**: Government capital expenditure has declined by 15% year-on-year until October, with only 42% of the target met. This mirrors fiscal prudence seen in previous cycles [22][4] 6. **Sector-Specific Views**: The recommendation is to be selective in sector investments, with Financials reduced in weight, while IT, Telecom, and Utilities are upgraded to Overweight. Healthcare is downgraded to Underweight due to valuation concerns [7][4] 7. **Domestic Investment Growth**: There is a notable increase in domestic investments, with household allocation to equities expected to rise to 15% this year, which may support market stability [50][48] 8. **Earnings Expectations**: FY26 is expected to mark a recovery in performance after a brief hiatus, with revenue and PAT growth anticipated to accelerate. However, there are concerns about optimistic earnings expectations slipping from FY25 to FY26 [58][59] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Credit Growth**: Credit growth has been stifled compared to previous cycles, with personal loans growing at a modest 12-16% recently, down from highs of 32-33% [38][39] 2. **Private Capex**: Unlike previous cycles, private sector participation in capital expenditure has been moderate, with the government taking a larger role in infrastructure spending [42][43] 3. **Geopolitical Uncertainties**: The potential impact of geopolitical situations, including U.S. political changes, is acknowledged as a factor that may weigh on market sentiment [3][57] 4. **Market Resilience**: The Indian market has shown resilience to foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, with domestic investments playing a crucial role in supporting market stability [48][50] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the Indian economy and market outlook for 2025, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Key Points Industry or Company Involved - **SMID Cap Software Companies**: The document focuses on a comparative valuation of SMID cap software companies, specifically within the vertical software and internet infrastructure universe. Core Views and Arguments - **Stock Performance**: The S&P index was down (-3%) week over week, with many covered stocks performing in line with or slightly underperforming the index. ALKT (-7%) was the greatest underperformer, while CCCS and SSNC were down only (-1%) [4]. - **Recent Events**: SS&C announced new SaaS releases for Alternatives customers across its Geneva, Eclipse, and OEMS solutions [4]. - **Recent Calls & Publications**: The document highlights Guidewire, Tyler, and Clearwater as top picks heading into 2025E [4]. - **Coverage Universe**: The document provides a table of covered companies, including their ticker, company name, JPM analyst, rating, price as of 12/31/2024, market cap, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, FCF Yield, and FCF Yield [6]. - **Verticals**: The document discusses various verticals, including Real Estate and Construction, Internet Infrastructure, Financial Services, Insurance Software, and Other Vertical Software Names [10-18]. - **Valuation**: The document provides valuation analysis for each vertical, comparing the covered companies to their peers and the broader market [10-18]. - **Comparables**: The document identifies comparable companies for each vertical and compares their valuation metrics to the covered companies [10-18]. Other Important Content - **Analyst Certification and Important Disclosures**: The document includes analyst certification and important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest and the firm's relationship with covered companies [3, 21-25]. - **Coverage Universe**: The document provides a list of companies covered by J.P. Morgan's equity research team [30]. - **Equity Valuation and Risks**: The document outlines the valuation methodology and risks associated with covered companies or price targets [33]. - **Other Disclosures**: The document includes various other disclosures, such as legal entity responsible for the production and distribution of research, country-/region-specific disclosures, and general information about the research material [43-50].