更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 02 January 2025 China wind power – blowing in the wind Applying AI to identify wind power stock opportunities: generation decline in December could be a negative event We apply machine learning techniques to predict China wind farms' monthly power generation using weather data. Power generation for wind farms is a function of installed capacity and wind energy available (fairly consistent in the long term). However, monthly wind speed ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 11:17 AM GMT M Update Geely Automobile Holdings | Asia Pacific Ambitious 2025 target | shuinu9870 | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | | | M 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Tim Hsiao Equity Analyst Tim.Hsiao@morganstanley.com +852 2848-1982 Cindy.Huang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-3568 shuinu9870 | | | | Update | | | | | January 2, 2025 11:17 AM ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 January 2025 | 9:03AM CST China New Energy Vehicle Weekly Chartbook 2024 Week 52 - 47% NEV penetration; NEV/ICE dealer discount widened wow Bottom line: Intensifying price competition into year-end with widening dealer discount. A curated compilation of the most topical charts on weekly passenger vehicle market performance organized into the following categories: (1) PV and NEV industry weekly insurance registration volume/penetration, (2) Key NEV brands' weekly insurance regi ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Software** industry, particularly the performance and outlook of major software companies in 2024 and beyond [1][3][13]. Core Themes and Insights - **AI and Cloud Sentiment**: The enthusiasm for AI that peaked in late 2023 has shifted to skepticism in 2024, with concerns about the return on investment (ROI) and the sharp increase in capital expenditures (CAPEX) without clear revenue visibility [1][16]. - **Growth Deceleration**: Investors are analyzing the reasons behind growth deceleration in some software companies and questioning when generative AI (Gen AI) will become a significant revenue driver [1][3][16]. - **Oracle's Performance**: Oracle has emerged as a top pick due to its strong positioning in cloud services, particularly with its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), cloud database, and Software as a Service (SaaS) offerings [2][19]. - **Microsoft's Visibility**: Microsoft remains a focal point for investors, with multiple earnings notes indicating its importance across various software sectors. The company is seen as a bellwether for the industry [3][19]. Key Companies Mentioned - **Oracle**: Recognized for its defensive growth and idiosyncratic growth drivers, becoming the 1 inbound name for investors in the second half of 2024 [2][19]. - **Microsoft**: Noted for its significant role in the software market, with multiple earnings notes highlighting its AI initiatives and cloud transition [3][19]. - **Salesforce, Adobe, and SAP**: These companies are also under scrutiny as investors seek to understand their growth trajectories and challenges [3][19]. Investment Ratings - The report rates several companies as follows: - **Outperform**: Adobe, Microsoft, MongoDB, Oracle, SAP, Workday - **Market-Perform**: Snowflake - **Underperform**: Salesforce.com [7][24]. Additional Insights - **CAPEX Concerns**: There is a significant focus on the CAPEX trends among major tech companies, with projections indicating over $1 trillion in spending over the next five years, primarily directed towards AI initiatives [22]. - **Cloud Transition**: The ERP market is highlighted as being early in its cloud transition, presenting opportunities for growth among major software vendors [23]. - **Macro Environment**: The uncertain macroeconomic landscape has led to increased interest in how macro factors impact software companies, with volatility creating both challenges and opportunities [24]. Conclusion - The conference call reflects a cautious yet strategic outlook for the software industry, emphasizing the need for investors to navigate the complexities of AI investments, cloud transitions, and macroeconomic influences while identifying potential winners and losers in the evolving landscape [1][3][16][19].

1. Can valuations go any higher? We asked this question a year ago and it is even 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 31 December 2024 | 11:48AM EST End of YEAR Market Intelligence: what a(nother) year! US stocks are trading lower on Tuesday, but still on pace for a ~23.6% gain for the year (for the S&P 500 as of 11:30 AM ET today) as investors have been navigating a steadily growing US economy, and end to the Fed's rate hiking cycle (starting in July), and a continued concentration of market cap (and market share ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 2 January 2025 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： | 更多一 | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： | | | | 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 | | 2 January 2025 | | | | FX Market | | Currencies Global | | | | | December | 2024 shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | shuinu9870 | | Main Events | 手调研纪要和研报数据加V： ◆ Fed cuts by 25bp to 4.25-4.50%; median "dot plot" projections | Paul Mackel | | | | | | | Global Head of FX Research 手调研纪要 ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Manufacturing * **Company**: Not specified * **Location**: China Key Points 1. **Caixin Manufacturing PMI**: The December Caixin manufacturing PMI fell 1.0 point to 50.5, below expectations and largely reversing the rise in November. The output component fell 2.7 points to 50.5, and the new order component fell 1.4 points to 51.5. The new export orders component fell notably by 2.9 points to 48.6, the second lowest reading since September 2023. [2] 2. **NBS Manufacturing PMI**: The NBS manufacturing PMI showed a modest easing, with the output component falling 0.3 point to 52.1. The new order component rose 0.2 point to 51.0 in December. [5] 3. **Mixed Signals**: The Caixin and NBS PMIs have shown similar trends in the past three months, likely reflecting ongoing domestic policy support and growing concerns on external sector uncertainty and potential US tariff hike. [3] 4. **Domestic Demand Outlook**: The new orders component for the NBS PMI rose in December, suggesting steady domestic demand outlook amid policy support. [5] 5. **Export Sector Sentiment**: The export orders component for the Caixin PMI fell notably in December, reflecting heightened concerns of external sector uncertainty and potential US tariff hike. [5] 6. **Pricing Environment**: Both PMI reports showed generally weak pricing conditions, with ongoing PPI deflation pressure on the domestic economy and the export sector's pricing conditions weakening amid intense competition. [7] 7. **Economic Outlook**: The forecast for a solid sequential recovery in 4Q24 to 6.9% q/q saar (or 4.9%oya in 4Q vs. 4.6%oya in 3Q) remains unchanged. The full-year 2024 real GDP growth forecast is 4.84%, with a final outcome likely to be either 4.8% or 4.9% y/y. [8] 8. **Nominal GDP Growth**: Nominal GDP growth slowed to 4.1%oya in the first three quarters of 2024 and will likely print at 4.0% for the full-year, the second-worst reading since the data release in the 1990s. [8] 9. **Policy Adjustments**: Policy adjustments need to provide support for real economic activity, deal with deflationary pressure, and improve economic rebalancing, especially by improving household income, supporting domestic demand, and stabilizing private sector sentiment. [8]

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 02 January 2025 China/Hong Kong Monthly Wrap Dec 2024: the fourth year is the charm In 2024, China and HK equity indices reversed course after a three-year correction. MXCN/HSI/HSCEI/HSTECH rose by +2.7%/+3.4%/+5.1%/+2.8% in USD during December, for USD price returns of +16%/+18%/+27%/+19% during 2024. MXCN's large-cap high yielders were well bid as the 10Y CGB yield dipped to a record low of 1.68% (Figure 4Southbnd iflowsnt HKlised hgyilers & Figure 5MXCN andMXHK: Cy ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 1, 2025 11:40 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific M Update Major Developers' December Sales Remained Decent CRIC preliminary sales data show contracted sales of 30 major developers we track down 10% y-y but up 11% m-m in December. SOEs continued to outperform with positive y-y growth. Major developers recorded decent December sales, with the top 50 and top 100 developers up 2% and 0% y-y, respectively (vs. -1% and -3% in November), and +22% and +28% m-m on seasonality. ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 1, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Financials | Asia Pacific Banks' shares hitting new highs; what to do from here? Risk control and high dividend yields have sent banks shares to new highs. We believe first natural economic cycles bottom in China, a modest LPR cut of only 15-20 bps and resumption of interest rate reform could support banks' NIM and drive further bank outperformance in 2025. Attractive dividend yields and rational policy combo have driven major banks' shares to ...