更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 02:23 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Update PMI Update: Stable Headline, Better Details Aggregate PMI held steady at a six-month high in December. Better new orders and new export orders suggest demand held up, although the outlook remains clouded by looming tariff hikes. Key Takeaways Key observations: Asia's PMI stabilising at six-month high: The aggregate Asia manufacturing PMI held firm at a six-month high of 51.5, with moderation in China, India, and ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 January 2, 2025 09:04 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Update China Autos Overview Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研 ...

Based on the provided text, here's an analysis of the key points: **U.S. News**: * **China's Economic Slowdown**: The article highlights the fading promise of China's market due to its slowing economy. U.S. companies are increasingly wary of doing business in China, leading to a shift in focus away from China as a land of opportunity. * **Productivity Growth**: The U.S. has seen a significant increase in productivity, driven by factors like the pandemic, immigration, and technological advancements. This growth has the potential to boost the economy and support an aging population. * **FBI Investigation**: The FBI is investigating the January 6 Capitol attack, including the discovery of pipe bombs near the Democratic and Republican national committees. The investigation is focused on identifying the suspect and determining whether they acted alone. * **Biden's Legacy**: The article compares President Biden's presidency to that of Jimmy Carter, noting their shared challenges of inflation and U.S. weakness abroad. Both presidents faced significant economic and foreign policy challenges during their terms. * **Net-Zero Banking Retreat**: Major banks are increasingly backing away from net-zero commitments, citing economic realities and legal challenges. This retreat suggests a shift in climate policy and investor sentiment. * **Judicial Independence**: Chief Justice John Roberts defended judicial independence in his annual year-end message, highlighting the threat of violence, intimidation, and calls to defy judicial decisions. **World News**: * **Revival of ISIS**: The article discusses the resurgence of ISIS in Syria, highlighting the group's ability to inspire attacks and its potential to cause further violence in the region and beyond. * **Al Jazeera Ban**: The Palestinian Authority has banned Al Jazeera in the occupied West Bank, citing the network's sympathetic coverage of Hamas. This ban is part of a broader conflict between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas. * **Iranian Journalist Detention**: Italy has summoned Iran's ambassador to demand the release of an Italian journalist detained in Tehran. The situation is complex, with potential implications for Iran's relationship with Italy and the broader Middle East. * **Israeli Airstrikes**: Israeli airstrikes have killed at least 26 people in the Gaza Strip, raising tensions in the region. The article discusses the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and the efforts of mediators to broker a cease-fire. * **Sudan Orphanage Rescue**: The article tells the story of the rescue of orphans from an orphanage in Sudan during the country's civil war. The efforts of doctors, aid workers, and volunteers highlight the human cost of the conflict and the resilience of those affected. **Business & Finance**: * **TikTok Ban**: The article discusses the potential ban of TikTok in the U.S. and the impact it could have on creators, brands, and advertisers. Despite the looming ban, many are optimistic that the app will continue to operate. * **Meta's New Policy Head**: Meta Platforms is replacing its chief policy executive with a Republican, aligning the company with the incoming Trump administration. * **AI Robots**: The article explores the increasing use of AI robots in public spaces, highlighting their capabilities and potential impact on various industries. * **TGI Fridays Revival**: The former CEO of TGI Fridays is leading a bid to revitalize the struggling chain. * **BYD's Record Sales**: Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD has posted record sales, driven by government incentives and strong demand in the domestic market. **Technology**: * **Tesla's Challenges**: Tesla's vehicle deliveries have fallen for the first time in more than a decade, raising concerns about the company's future. The article discusses the challenges facing Tesla, including competition and the decline in demand for electric vehicles. * **Cybersecurity IPOs**: The article discusses the challenging prospects for cybersecurity company IPOs in 2025, due to a decline in venture capital funding and increased competition. **Opinion**: * **Device ID Election**: The article argues that the 2024 election was a "Device ID" election, highlighting the use of targeted advertising and data analytics in political campaigns. * **Corporate Transparency Act**: The article calls for the repeal of the Corporate Transparency Act, which would impose intrusive reporting requirements on small businesses. * **Net Zero**: The article argues that net-zero policies are becoming increasingly unfeasible and that 2025 could be the year they finally die. * **Terrorism**: The article discusses the threat of terrorism, highlighting the recent attack in New Orleans and the resurgence of ISIS in Syria. **Overall, the text provides a comprehensive overview of the key issues and events shaping the world in early 2025. It covers a wide range of topics, including economics, politics, technology, and social issues**.

The Washington Post has published a comprehensive collection of obituaries for notable individuals who passed away in 2024. These obituaries provide a detailed account of the lives and achievements of these individuals, highlighting their contributions to various fields and their impact on society. **Some notable obituaries include**: * **Jimmy Carter (1924-2024)**: The 39th President of the United States, known for his commitment to human rights, peace, and environmental protection. His post-presidential work through the Carter Center has made a significant impact on global health, education, and conflict resolution. * **John M. Spratt Jr. (1942-2024)**: A long-serving Democratic congressman from South Carolina, known for his fiscal stewardship and advocacy for the environment. He played a key role in passing the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 and the Affordable Care Act of 2010. * **Shadi Hamid**: A prominent scholar and analyst of Islam and the Middle East, known for his work on political Islam and the Arab Spring. His expertise and insights have been widely sought by policymakers and the media. * **Shamsud-Din Jabbar**: The attacker who killed 14 people in a vehicular attack in New Orleans on January 1, 2025. His motivations and background are explored in this obituary, shedding light on the complexities of terrorism and radicalization. * **Agnes Keleti (1921-2024)**: The world's oldest living Olympic gold medalist and a survivor of the Holocaust. She was a pioneering gymnast and a symbol of resilience and hope. **The Washington Post's obituaries are a valuable resource for learning about the lives and legacies of these individuals. They provide a comprehensive and thoughtful look at the impact of their work and their contributions to society**.

Key Points Company and Industry Information 1. **Company Involved**: NewtekOne, Inc. (NASDAQ:NEWT) and Paltalk IPM. 2. **Event**: Mergers & Acquisitions Conference Call. 3. **Date and Time**: January 2, 2025, 4:15 PM ET. 4. **Participants**: - Barry Sloane - CEO and Chairman of NewtekOne. - Jason Katz - CEO and Chairman of Paltalk IPM. - Various analysts from UBS Financial Services, Piper Sandler, Raymond James, Maxim Group, Landenburg Thalmann & Company, B. Riley, and KBW. [1] Core Views and Arguments 1. **Divestiture of Newtek Technology Solutions**: NewtekOne is divesting Newtek Technology Solutions and merging it into Paltalk IPM. 2. **Management Representation**: Barry Sloane, CEO and Chairman of NewtekOne, and Jason Katz, CEO and Chairman of Paltalk IPM, are present to discuss the merger. 3. **Forward-Looking Statements**: The call includes forward-looking statements based on current beliefs and expectations, subject to significant risks and uncertainties. [4][5] Other Important Content 1. **Q&A Session**: The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. 2. **Recording**: The conference call is being recorded. [3][2]

Arts preview 2025 A look ahead om £2.30 for subscribers Fifteen dead as truck with IS flag drives into crowd in New Orleans FBI investigating 'act of terror', while police say suspect has been killed Vehicle and gun attack injures dozens gathered to celebrate new year Edward Helmore New York Ramon Antonio Vargas and Oliver Laughland New Orleans At least 15 people were killed and more than 30 injured when a vehicle flying an Islamic State flag drove into a crowd in the tourist district of New Orleans early o ...

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Industry/Company Involved * **Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research** - The document is a report from Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division, focusing on inflation trends across various economies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Core Inflation Trends**: * Core goods inflation slowed in Japan and Canada, but increased in the US, the Euro area, and the UK. * Core services inflation slowed in most economies, with the largest decline in the Euro area and acceleration in Canada. * Traditional core inflation measures preferred by major central banks differ in terms of included categories and measurement approaches. * Goldman Sachs' trimmed core inflation measure systematically trims a weighted one-third of month-to-month changes across all core inflation categories and then takes the weighted average of the remaining two-thirds. * The trimmed core inflation rate stands at +3.7% in the UK, +2.9% in Canada, +2.5% in the US, and +2.4% in the Euro area. * Core goods inflation slowed in Canada and Japan but increased elsewhere. * Core services inflation generally declined in most economies. * Rent inflation declined in Canada and the US but increased in the UK. * Energy inflation increased in Japan and the UK, remained in negative territory elsewhere. * Food inflation increased in the UK and US but slowed elsewhere. * The breadth of inflationary pressures continues to moderate. * The share of the headline basket running above 4% on a six-month annualized basis declined across DMs. * The share of the basket with year-over-year inflation increasing ticked up outside of the US. * The distribution of three-month inflation rates across items continued to shift back towards pre-pandemic norms in most economies, but remains more dispersed in Canada. 2. **Inflation Forecasts**: * Goldman Sachs revised up its end-2024 forecasts for core inflation in Canada and the Euro area, and its end-2025 forecast for core inflation in the UK. * Goldman Sachs revised its end-2024 headline inflation forecasts by +0.1pp in the UK and -0.1pp in Canada. * Goldman Sachs expects further disinflation in most economies in 2025, with year-over-year core inflation slowing to +2.1% in Japan, +2.4% in the US, +2.0% in the Euro area, +2.8% in the UK, and +2.0% in Canada. * The GS harmonized core excludes a consistent set of items from CPI in all economies. Other Important Points * The document includes various charts and tables illustrating inflation trends and forecasts. * The document provides a detailed explanation of the methodology used to calculate trimmed core inflation. * The document includes disclosures regarding the authorship and distribution of the report.

Key Points **Industry Overview** 1. **Market Dynamics**: The real estate market is experiencing a recovery phase, with sales volume and prices showing positive trends. [doc id='51'] 2. **Sales Growth**: Weekly primary and secondary market sales have shown significant year-over-year growth, with primary market sales increasing by 13.0% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 55% YoY. [doc id='51'] 3. **Price Trends**: Property prices in Tier 1 cities have shown stable growth, with the Centaline six-city secondary asking price tracking index remaining relatively flat. [doc id='53'] 4. **Developers' Sales**: Developers' monthly sales have shown mixed trends, with some companies reporting strong growth while others experienced declines. [doc id='35'] **Market Segmentation** 1. **Tier 1 Cities**: Sales in Tier 1 cities have shown strong growth, with primary market sales increasing by 16.9% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 36% YoY. [doc id='51'] 2. **Tier 2 Cities**: Sales in Tier 2 cities have also shown significant growth, with primary market sales increasing by 13.4% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 66% YoY. [doc id='51'] 3. **Tier 3 Cities**: Sales in Tier 3 cities have shown moderate growth, with primary market sales increasing by 7.1% YoY and secondary market sales increasing by 20% YoY. [doc id='51'] **Company-Specific Information** 1. **C&D International**: The company reported attributable sales of 124 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 16% and a MoM decline of 33%. [doc id='46'] 2. **China SCE**: The company reported attributable sales of 10 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 9% and a MoM decline of 9%. [doc id='46'] 3. **CIFI**: The company reported attributable sales of 31 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 41% and a MoM decline of 21%. [doc id='46'] 4. **CMSK**: The company reported attributable sales of 189 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 9% and a MoM decline of 3%. [doc id='46'] 5. **COLI**: The company reported attributable sales of 270 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 31% and a MoM increase of 287 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 6. **Country Garden**: The company reported attributable sales of 44 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 51% and a MoM decline of 30%. [doc id='46'] 7. **CR Land**: The company reported attributable sales of 229 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 7% and a MoM increase of 286 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 8. **Gemdale**: The company reported attributable sales of 63 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 53% and a MoM decline of 14%. [doc id='46'] 9. **Greentown**: The company reported attributable sales of 149 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 10% and a MoM decline of 24%. [doc id='46'] 10. **Jinmao**: The company reported attributable sales of 83 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 31% and a MoM decline of 132 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 11. **KWG**: The company reported attributable sales of 9 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 48% and a MoM decline of 24 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 12. **Logan**: The company reported attributable sales of 8 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 7% and a MoM decline of 23 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 13. **Longfor**: The company reported attributable sales of 93 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 19% and a MoM decline of 162 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 14. **Midea RE**: The company reported attributable sales of 37 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 21% and a MoM decline of 38 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 15. **Poly**: The company reported attributable sales of 308 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 23% and a MoM decline of 400 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 16. **Powerlong**: The company reported attributable sales of 12 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 13% and a MoM decline of 26 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 17. **Ronshine**: The company reported attributable sales of 7 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 1% and a MoM increase of 20 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 18. **Seazen**: The company reported attributable sales of 37 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 50% and a MoM decline of 71 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 19. **Shimao**: The company reported attributable sales of 31 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 12% and a MoM increase of 40 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 20. **Sino-Ocean**: The company reported attributable sales of 48 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY increase of 37% and a MoM increase of 31 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 21. **Sunac**: The company reported attributable sales of 45 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 54% and a MoM decline of 79 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 22. **Vanke**: The company reported attributable sales of 223 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 34% and a MoM decline of 343 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 23. **Yuzhou**: The company reported attributable sales of 7 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 58% and a MoM decline of 17 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 24. **Zhenro**: The company reported attributable sales of 6 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 24% and a MoM decline of 14 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 25. **Zhongliang**: The company reported attributable sales of 16 million HKD in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 33% and a MoM decline of 32 million HKD. [doc id='46'] 26. **Zhongnan**: The company reported attributable sales of 16 million RMB in November 2024, with a YoY decline of 50% and a MoM decline of 38 million RMB. [doc id='46'] **Conclusion** The real estate market is currently in a recovery phase, with sales volume and prices showing positive trends. However, the market remains volatile, with mixed trends observed across different cities and companies. Developers' sales have shown mixed results, with some companies experiencing strong growth while others have faced challenges.

Industry Overview * **Software Industry Performance**: The software industry has largely underperformed in 2024, with a year-to-date return of 12% compared to the S&P 500's 25% and the NASDAQ's 31%. * **Valuation**: The software industry is currently trading at a significant discount to its historical averages. The EV/NTM FCF multiple for the software industry is 36.0x, which is 52% off the peak and 24% below the trailing average. The P/E multiple is 25.8x, which is 12% off the peak and in line with the trailing 5-year average. * **Growth**: Software trading is 4% above the trailing 5-year average on a growth-adjusted basis. * **High Growth Companies**: High-growth software companies are trading at an average of 80% of their 52-week high, with an average 2-year sales CAGR of 28% and an average EV/CY25 Sales multiple of 11.3x. * **Medium Growth Companies**: Medium-growth software companies are trading at an average of 79% of their 52-week high, with an average 2-year sales CAGR of 20% and an average EV/CY25 Sales multiple of 11.5x. * **Low Growth Companies**: Low-growth software companies are trading at an average of 74% below their 52-week high, with an average 2-year sales CAGR of 8% and an average EV/CY25 Sales multiple of 4.8x. Company Ratings and Updates * **Blackline Inc (BL.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of September 29, 2024. * **E2open Parent Holdings Inc (ETWO.N)**: Rated Equal-weight as of January 17, 2024. * **OneStream Inc (OS.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of August 19, 2024. * **Vertex Inc. (VERX.O)**: Rated Overweight as of January 17, 2024. * **Amplitude Inc. (AMPL.O)**: Rated Underweight as of February 1, 2024. * **Autodesk (ADSK.O)**: Rated Overweight as of August 23, 2024. * **Freshworks Inc (FRSH.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of October 18, 2021. * **GoDaddy Inc (GDDY.N)**: Rated Equal-weight as of July 19, 2021. * **HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS.N)**: Rated Overweight as of March 21, 2023. * **Klaviyo, Inc (KVYO.N)**: Rated Equal-weight as of October 16, 2023. * **LegalZoom.com Inc (LZ.O)**: Rated Underweight as of July 28, 2022. * **Liveramp Holdings Inc (RAMP.N)**: Rated Overweight as of July 15, 2019. * **Matterport Inc (MTTR.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of April 19, 2022. * **Semrush Holdings Inc -A (SEMR.N)**: Rated Equal-weight as of June 6, 2022. * **Sprinklr Inc (CXM.N)**: Rated Equal-weight as of July 19, 2021. * **Sprout Social Inc (SPT.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of November 17, 2020. * **Wix.Com Ltd (WIX.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of May 19, 2022. * **Zeta Global Holdings Corp (ZETA.N)**: Rated Equal-weight as of August 1, 2024. * **ZoomInfo Technologies Inc (ZI.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of February 1, 2024. * **Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of October 16, 2023. * **Cloudflare Inc (NET.N)**: Rated Overweight as of December 2, 2024. * **CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (CRWD.O)**: Rated Overweight as of January 9, 2024. * **CyberArk Software Ltd (CYBR.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of January 9, 2024. * **Fortinet Inc. (FTNT.O)**: Rated Overweight as of October 7, 2022. * **Gen Digital Inc. (GEN.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of June 7, 2024. * **Jamf Holding Corp (JAMF.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of October 13, 2024. * **Okta, Inc. (OKTA.O)**: Rated Overweight as of December 2, 2024. * **Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW.O)**: Rated Overweight as of October 10, 2017. * **Qualys Inc (QLYS.O)**: Rated Underweight as of February 9, 2021. * **Rapid7 Inc (RPD.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of August 11, 2015. * **Secureworks Corp (SCWX.O)**: Rated Underweight as of December 2, 2024. * **SentinelOne, Inc. (S.N)**: Rated Equal-weight as of December 2, 2024. * **Tenable Holdings Inc (TENB.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of December 2, 2024. * **Varonis Systems, Inc. (VRNS.O)**: Rated Overweight as of October 16, 2023. * **Zscaler Inc (ZS.O)**: Rated Equal-weight as of January 12, 2023. Other Key Points * **Morgan Stanley is acting as financial advisor to Secureworks in relation to the definitive agreement for Sophos to acquire Secureworks**. * **Stock ratings are subject to change**. * **Historical prices are not split adjusted**. * **Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated, or Underweight**. * **Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research**. * **Ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice**.