Core Insights - The bond markets in 2026 face uncertainty regarding whether long-term rates will remain high despite potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could impact homebuyers and businesses negatively [1][3][9] Interest Rate Trends - Analysts predict a steepening of interest rate charts, with long-term rates staying elevated while short-term rates decline, driven by inflation expectations [2][9] - The Fed has cut short-term rates by 175 basis points since September 2024, yet the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has increased from approximately 3.70% to around 4.15% [5][9] Market Reactions - The bond market's response to Fed rate cuts has been termed the "easing paradox," where long-term rates do not comply with short-term rate reductions [5][6] - There is skepticism regarding the Fed's influence over the markets, as some investors view its actions as overly proactive given the current economic conditions [6] Future Projections - The 10-year yield is projected to potentially reach 4.5% by mid-2026 before settling around 4.25%, influenced by tariff impacts and inflation dynamics [7][8] - Three scenarios for future interest rates are outlined, with one predicting a drop to 3% under recession-like conditions, while another suggests cuts without justification could lead to market skepticism and rising inflation risks [10][12]

Ryan Quinlan belongs to five banks, but he can't he get withdrawals in the denomination he wants? Why? Because, he says, he wants pennies by the thousands. "I had a good system down," said Quinlan, a 28-year-old software engineer currently living in North Carolina. "Despite that, I'm just not able to get pennies. It is a little sad, but I guess it's kind of an inevitability.†Key Takeaways For years, Quinlan has picked up boxes—usually containing 50 rolls, or 2,500 pennies—for "coin roll hunting,†in which ...

Core Insights - Homeowners in many U.S. states are facing challenges with rising housing costs, leading to increased foreclosure activity, which rose by 21% year-over-year in November, although it was 3% lower than October levels [1][8] - Foreclosure activity has been increasing for nine consecutive months, indicating a trend of normalization in the housing market as homeowners deal with higher costs and economic pressures [4] Foreclosure Activity by State - Delaware experienced a significant increase in foreclosure activity, rising nearly 159% year-over-year in November, while Nevada saw an increase of almost 26%, New Jersey over 48%, and Florida about 21% [3][8] - Philadelphia reported the highest foreclosure activity in the U.S., with one in every 1,511 housing units in foreclosure, although this spike is attributed to backlogged data [4] Market Conditions - Elevated housing costs and high mortgage rates, currently at 6.18%, have contributed to a frozen market, keeping housing sales at historically low levels, with the median price of existing-home sales in November at $433,175 [7] - The geographic spread of foreclosure activity suggests that it is influenced by nationwide affordability challenges and localized market pressures rather than a single regional factor [5]

KEY TAKEAWAYS If you did not withhold enough federal income taxes from your paychecks throughout the year, come April 2026, you may have a significant tax bill. However, I would say, if they're just now looking at that, they're about eight months late. Tax planning should be something you're doing all along. For our clients, one of the things we recommend is…to get their withholdings right. The idea behind it is to have enough withheld from each pay period so that when you get to the end, you're at a nomina ...

Core Insights - The Social Security Administration distributes benefits to nearly 74 million individuals each month, with payment schedules primarily based on beneficiaries' birth dates [1][6] - For those who began receiving retirement, spousal, or survivor benefits before May 1997, payments are typically issued on the 3rd of each month [1][6] Payment Schedule - Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for January will be made on December 31, 2025, due to the New Year's Day holiday [3][7] - Payments for January will be distributed as follows: - January 2: Benefits for those collecting since before May 1997 [7] - January 14: Benefits for individuals born between the 1st and 10th of any month [7] - January 21: Benefits for individuals with birthdays between the 11th and 20th of any month [7] - January 28: Benefits for individuals with birthdays between the 21st and 31st of any month [7] - January 30: SSI payments for February will be issued [7] Importance of Payment Timing - Knowing the payment schedule is crucial for Social Security beneficiaries, as they rely on fixed incomes to manage their budgets and financial obligations [2]

Core Insights - A prominent strategist argues that the real poverty line for a family of four is $140,000, significantly higher than the official federal threshold of $32,150, indicating a disconnect between traditional measures and modern economic realities [1][8]. Economic Context - The analysis highlights that families earning six figures often face financial struggles, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the economy, even among those with above-average incomes [4]. - Rising costs in housing, health care, and child care have increasingly consumed family budgets, overshadowing food expenses, which accounted for only 12.9% of a typical household's expenditures in 2023 [4]. Methodology and Findings - The original poverty line formula, established in the 1960s, is based on food costs, but the strategist recalibrated it to reflect current living expenses, suggesting that the real poverty line is 16 times the amount needed for food, estimating it between $130,000 and $150,000 [5]. - A family of four's average annual spending on essential living expenses, including child care, housing, food, transportation, health care, and taxes, totals approximately $136,500 [5]. Alternative Measures - The Census Bureau has developed the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which considers a broader range of necessities, with the SPM poverty line for renters in 2023 set at $37,482, which is significantly lower than the strategist's estimate [7].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken, potentially by 10% by the end of 2026, following a decline initiated by President Trump's tariff plans in April [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Economic Impact - The dollar has weakened by as much as 10% this year against a basket of foreign currencies, currently down 7% year-to-date [1][2]. - A weaker dollar affects travel costs, import prices, and investment returns for U.S. households and investors, reshaping portfolios and global trade dynamics [3]. - The Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts contribute to the dollar's weakness, making U.S. debt less attractive [7]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - Despite the dollar's decline, global trade and markets still heavily rely on the U.S. dollar, indicating that the narrative of "de-dollarization" is largely overstated [2][9]. - The structural foundation of dollar dominance remains intact, supported by deep and liquid markets and the global reach of U.S. financial institutions [10][11]. - The recent rally in gold prices has led to discussions about de-dollarization, but central banks' gold accumulation has not significantly reduced their dollar holdings [12][13]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Hedging - Some investors remain cautious about further dollar weakness, which could erode the value of U.S. dollar assets in their portfolios [14]. - The Fed's rate cuts are making it cheaper for investors to buy instruments that hedge against dollar risks, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [16]. - Analysts are closely monitoring hedging decisions, with indications that the outlook for hedging flows is leaning bearish on the dollar [17].

Economic Indicators - The minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will provide insights into the Fed's economic outlook ahead of its next meeting in late January [4] - Weekly jobless claims report is expected to highlight the labor market, with the U.S. economy likely losing an average of 20,000 jobs per month between April and September [4] - Pending home sales data for November will indicate future sales levels in a housing market facing affordability challenges [5] Market Trends - The first trading session of 2026 is anticipated to follow a year where major stock indexes closed higher by double digits after a recovery from an April downturn [2] - Analysts predict another volatile year for stocks, with strong trading in December and January potentially setting the tone for investors [2] Upcoming Events - Key economic reports scheduled for the week include pending home sales on Monday, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday, and initial jobless claims on Wednesday [5][9] - Bond markets will close early at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, while stock markets will operate normally on New Year's Eve [1]

Core Insights - The decision on when to collect Social Security benefits is crucial for retirement planning, with early collection at age 62 providing a longer payment duration, while waiting until full retirement age (67 for those born in 1960 or later) can significantly increase monthly benefits [1] Group 1: Timing of Benefits - Individuals should not assume that age 62 or age 70 is the optimal time to take benefits, as only about 5% to 7% of people wait until age 70, while 20% to 25% take benefits at age 62 [2] - The decision should consider individual circumstances, including health status, work situation, and the financial needs of both spouses in a married couple [3] Group 2: Survivor Benefits and Break-Even Analysis - For couples, the age difference can influence the decision; for example, if the younger spouse is significantly younger, collecting at age 62 may be beneficial to secure survivor benefits before reaching the break-even point [4] Group 3: Changes in Social Security for 2026 - Starting in 2026, the earnings limit before benefits are affected will increase from $23,400 to $24,480, with a penalty of $1 withheld for every $2 earned if under full retirement age [5] - The earnings limit in the year one reaches full retirement age will rise from $62,160 to $65,160, with $1 withheld for every $3 earned [6] - A 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be effective, although it will not reflect in checks until the following month [6] Group 4: Senior Tax Deductions - A new senior tax deduction of $6,000 will be available for individuals aged 65 or older starting in 2025, applicable regardless of whether they receive Social Security benefits [8] - For joint tax returns, couples can deduct $12,000 from their adjusted gross income (AGI), with a phase-out beginning at $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples [9]

Core Insights - Target's shares experienced a rise of over 2% following reports of Toms Capital Investment Management taking a stake in the company, making it one of the top gainers in the S&P 500 on that day [1][5] Company Performance - Target has faced significant challenges in 2025, with shares losing more than 25% of their value [4] - The company is expecting a year-over-year decline in sales for the fourth quarter after already experiencing a drop in the third quarter [4] Investor Sentiment - Activist investors typically target companies with declining shares, aiming to influence changes that could improve performance, making Target a fitting candidate given its recent struggles [2] - The size of Toms Capital's stake in Target has not been disclosed, and the company has not provided further comments on the matter [2][5] Company Strategy - Target has stated its commitment to returning to growth through three strategic priorities: enhancing merchandising authority, improving the shopping experience, and leveraging technology [3]