Core Insights - Deere & Co. shares have surged over 40% since the beginning of the year, reaching a new high after reporting earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations [1][1][1] Financial Performance - Deere reported earnings per share of $2.42 and revenue of $9.61 billion, reflecting a 13% year-over-year increase [1][1][1] - The company expects net income for the full year to be between $4.5 billion and $5 billion, an increase from the previous range of $4 billion to $4.75 billion [1][1][1] Market Drivers - The positive results were attributed to increased infrastructure spending and investments in AI data centers [1][1][1] - CEO John May noted a recovery in demand within the construction and small agriculture segments, despite ongoing challenges in the global large agriculture industry [1][1][1] Future Outlook - Deere anticipates that 2023 could mark the bottom of the current cycle, with expectations for stronger sales growth in 2027 and beyond [1][1][1] - Sales from the Production & Precision Agriculture segment are projected to decline by 5% to 10%, while small agriculture and construction sales are expected to rise by approximately 15% [1][1][1]

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Core Insights - Etsy's stock is experiencing a rise due to the announcement of selling its fashion marketplace Depop to eBay for $1.2 billion in cash, marking a strategic shift back to its core business focus [1][1][1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The sale of Depop signifies the end of Etsy's "house of brands" era, which previously included three other businesses, indicating a strategic refocus on its primary marketplace [1][1] - Etsy's management aims to concentrate on growing the Etsy marketplace, which had nearly 87 million buyers by the end of 2025, despite a year-over-year decline in global merchandise sales [1][1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Following the announcement, Etsy's shares rose approximately 9% to around $48, although the stock remains down for the year and over the past 12 months [1][1] - The sale of Depop, which was acquired for $1.6 billion in 2021, is seen as a positive outcome for Etsy's shareholders, as it allows the company to focus on its core operations [1][1] Group 3: Market Reaction - The news of the sale positively impacted eBay's shares, which rose about 5% in response to the acquisition announcement [1][1] - Wall Street analysts maintain a bullish outlook on Etsy's stock, with a mean price target of $67, although this is significantly lower than its previous peak [1][1]

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Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering further interest rate cuts this year, but there is significant internal debate regarding the timing and necessity of such cuts due to persistent inflation concerns [1][2][8]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed's January meeting minutes indicate a division among officials about future rate cuts after three reductions in 2025, with some advocating for caution due to inflation still above the 2% target [1][5]. - While many believe further downward adjustments are necessary if inflation continues to decelerate, some officials express reluctance to cut rates excessively, fearing it could reignite inflation [2][3]. Inflation and Employment - The current inflation rate is slightly above 2.5%, and Fed officials emphasize the importance of maintaining focus on the 2% inflation objective to avoid long-term inflationary pressures [6][8]. - Employment risks have moderated, but concerns remain about the potential for job market deterioration if rates are kept too high [7][9]. Policy Implications - The Fed's decisions on interest rates will significantly impact borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, highlighting the importance of inflation and employment data in shaping rate expectations [4][8]. - Some Fed officials, including Governors Miran and Waller, have expressed dissent regarding the decision to keep rates unchanged, arguing for the potential to cut rates further given the weak labor market conditions [10]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts predict that employment growth may slow, which could lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains the primary barrier to additional rate cuts [11][12]. - Expectations are for the Fed to potentially cut rates three times later this year, contingent on the evolving economic landscape [12].

Core Insights - The Fed's inflation benchmark is expected to worsen, with consumer prices measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) projected to rise 2.8% over the 12 months through December, and core PCE forecasted to increase to 3.0% from 2.8% in November [1][2][7] - The anticipated rise in core PCE inflation is significant as it is the measure the Federal Reserve uses to assess its 2% annual inflation target [2][4] - Financial markets are currently predicting a quarter-point cut in the Fed's key fed funds rate by June, but clarity on inflation trends is needed before any rate cuts can be made [5][6] Economic Implications - Persistently high inflation is negatively impacting household budgets and maintaining elevated interest rates [3] - Some economists, such as those at Goldman Sachs, predict that the annual PCE measure will continue to rise as companies pass on tariff costs to consumers, with core PCE potentially reaching 3.05%, the highest since March 2024 [4] - The Federal Reserve will closely monitor upcoming inflation data, particularly PCE, to determine whether to lower borrowing costs to stimulate the job market or maintain higher rates to control inflation [4][6]

KEY TAKEAWAYS The "One Big, Beautiful Bill" is expected to lower the amount owed and increase refunds for 2025 taxes, which are filed in 2026.Preliminary data on the 2026 filing season show tax refunds are higher than at the same time last year.The IRS is falling behind on processing tax returns compared to the 2025 filing season. Tax refunds so far this filing season are higher than last year. The "One Big, Beautiful Bill," passed in July, made more than 100 changes that impact 2025 taxes, which are f ...