Cloud Computing Landscape - Microsoft is partnering with a cloud provider and Dell, utilizing Nvidia GPUs for cloud computing [1] - Iren, an Australian company, offers Texan-based compute, similar to other neo-clouds that originated as bitcoin miners [2] - Microsoft faces supply issues and is allocating more capital expenditure to neo-clouds like Nebulous and Enscale [2][3] - Neo-clouds focus solely on efficient data center operations, purchasing equipment from companies like Dell [4] Financial Deals and Investments - Iren is paying Dell $5.8 billion for equipment in a deal that exceeds $9 billion with Microsoft [5] - Morgan Stanley estimates $3 trillion will be needed for data center spending by 2028, with half coming from company cash flows and the other half from financing [6][7] - Alphabet is tapping both European (€3 billion) and US markets for financing, showing commitment to growth [6][8] Market Trends and Strategies - Tech giants are increasingly relying on external financing for CapEx growth [6] - Alphabet was rewarded for increased spending on compute, indicating a positive growth trajectory for its Google offering [8] - Lowering interest rates create an interesting way to continue to show commitment to grow [8]

But it's really good to be chatting to you here in Abu Dhabi. But also some big figures were announced by Microsoft. Microsoft, a cumulative 5.2% billion worth of investments in the UAE between the start of 2023 and anticipated by the end of the decade.It is a substantial stock. What is the opportunity you're saying here. Well, the opportunity is to really invest in this country.This is not money we're raising here. It's money we're investing in spending here. And we really see the future of the UAE as a fu ...

Berkshire Hathaway's cache hit a record $381.7% billion last quarter as Warren Buffett stayed on the sidelines in terms of M&A. Operating profit jumped 34%, led by booming insurance results and unusually low disaster activity. Investors are paying closer attention as the company nears a new era, with Buffett handing off the role of CEO to Greg Abel at year end.Danny. Let's discuss those results further. Joining us now is Alex Roger Bhandari.He covers Buffett and Berkshire for Bloomberg News. Alex It's the s ...

Neutral Rate Drivers - Population growth is typically a major driver of neutral rates, but recent years have seen an unprecedented acceleration [2] - Population growth changed more in the last 3 years than in the previous 30 years [3] - Fiscal deficits also influence neutral rates [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Changes in neutral rate drivers suggest the neutral rate itself may be changing more rapidly [4] - A decreasing neutral rate leads to passive tightening of monetary policy [4][5] - Maintaining a restrictive policy stance for an extended period increases the risk of inducing an economic downturn due to policy lags [6]

Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley 认为 2025 年至 2026 年经济衰退已经过去，这与市场普遍观点不同 [1] - 经济正试图减少消费，增加投资，这将带来更高的经济增速 [2] - 经济已在经历滚动复苏，但并非所有行业都会同时复苏 [4] - 预计盈利增长将超过预期，经济周期将更短 [19] Monetary Policy - 如果联邦基金利率高于两年期美国国债收益率，则美联储的政策将滞后于市场 [6] - 美联储需要降息 50 个基点才能达到中性，降息 150 个基点以上才能刺激消费 [6] - 只有在美联储的政策低于两年期美国国债收益率时，小盘股和低质量股票的表现才会相对较好 [9] Investment Strategy - 第三季度财报季提供了一个强大的选股环境 [1] - 市场对自由现金流增长放缓和资产负债表变重的公司开始质疑 [13] - 税收法案鼓励企业投资基础设施、工厂、自动化生产和机器人技术 [17][18] - 大公司正在更多地依赖债务市场进行融资，这可能影响资本回报计划 [12][16]

And there is breaking news on another multibillion dollar deal because it's Monday. That's when all of the M&A happens. Amazon's cloud unit and OPENAI announcing a $38 billion deal in artificial intelligence.This allows Openai to run its AI workloads on a website that supports Amazon's cloud business. RWC infrastructure starting immediately. And Bloomberg Tech co-host Caroline Hyde joins us now to walk us through this sea of deals.But let's focus first on us, Carol, and what do we know about billions, a nic ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed is considered too restrictive, with neutral rates significantly below current policy [1] - Maintaining a restrictive policy for an extended period risks causing an economic downturn [2][16] - Financial markets are influenced by various factors beyond monetary policy, including technological advancements [4][5] - It's a mistake to automatically infer the stance of monetary policy solely from financial conditions [7] - Housing market conditions are tighter and have a greater impact on the economy's cyclical position than the stock market or credit spreads [8] - Policy passively tightened through 2025 due to shocks driven by economic policies outside the Fed, pushing neutral rates higher last year and lower this year [9][10][14] Neutral Rate and Economic Factors - Population growth rate is a major driver of neutral rates, experiencing 30 years' worth of change in only three years [11][12][13] - Changes in neutral rate accelerate over time, impacting the stance of monetary policy [14][15] Data Dependency and Economic Forecasts - Being excessively data-dependent makes the analysis backward-looking; forecasts should be prioritized [23] - Confidence in forecasts is high due to known shocks like population growth, minimizing the need for data dependency [24] - Alternative data on the labor market indicates a continual ebbing of demand, signaling that policy is too tight [27][28] Private Credit Market - Distresses in private markets suggest financial conditions have been tighter than perceived [9][31] - Uncorrelated credit problems can indicate a restrictive monetary policy [33][34]

Market Trends & Global Economy - China effectively suspends additional export curbs on rare earth minerals and terminates probes on US chip firms, signaling a potential ease in trade tensions [1][6][42] - The US administration's de-risking strategy with China continues, but the fragility of the situation requires both sides to comply with agreements [8][9][10] - Concerns about debt and uncertainty around budgets in Europe, particularly in France and the UK, are allowing the US dollar to rally [54][55] Company Performance & Financial Activities - Alphabet plans to sell at least $35 million worth of bonds to fund AI expansion and cloud infrastructure [15][62] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash pile soared to over $380 billion in the third quarter, a fresh record, but the company is not engaging in buybacks [19][20] - BP is getting rid of $15 million worth of assets in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford as part of an investment strategy [5] - Ryanair expects to exceed its passenger growth for the full year, with traffic growth around 3% [27][33] Commodities & Interest Rates - OPEC signals a pause in production hikes in the next quarter, leading to fluctuations in oil prices [1][43] - The Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut rates due to sticky inflation, and the market anticipates structural changes leading to a more dovish Fed [48][50][51] - The 10-year Treasury yield is up, reflecting investor selling off treasuries [3][44]

Market Trends & Geopolitics - US-China trade tensions are easing, with China agreeing to allow rare earth minerals and magnets to flow again and the US withholding escalation of its entity list [2][3] - The US Supreme Court will hear arguments on the legality of President Trump's tariffs, potentially impacting businesses reliant on international trade [10][11] - Emerging markets have experienced a strong rally, driven by supportive global backdrop, solid growth data, and compelling valuations [33][34] - The market is pricing the Fed rate path into the end of next year as excessively dovish, even with dark info in terms of not having lots of data [28] Earnings & Financial Performance - European earnings reporting period shows 52% win and 29% lose, a significant percentage, though typically lower than the US [13] - European equities are seeing record ETF flows as European investors repatriate funds [20] - US earnings are broadening out, with 9% earnings growth outside of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks [21] - Renewable energy investments reached a record $386 billion during the first half of 2025, outperforming traditional energy investments [71] Energy Sector - OPEC-Plus plans to pause output hikes for next year, assessing market conditions and demand dips in the first quarter of 2026 [53][54] - The energy industry anticipates a surge in power demand from data centers, potentially doubling by next year, equivalent to Japan's total power demand [50] - BP has agreed to sell its stakes in US shale assets for $15 billion [47] - Ryanair expects to exceed its growth target, predicting 207 million passengers this year due to strong demand and early Boeing aircraft deliveries [84][85]

The overriding trend, Tom, you know, in Europe, I think this year and for the next five years is going to be capacity constraint. The manufacturers are way behind in their deliveries. In fact, Boeing left us 29 aircraft short this summer, and we're the airline that grows as more capacity in Europe than any other airline.So if we're short capacity, we won't be able to grow traffic 2% in the September quarter. But we were able to recover all of our last year. Fares went down by 7%.This year, they've gone back ...