Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third consecutive time this year, despite growing dissent [1] - The Fed is committed to purchasing $40 billion of Treasury bills per month [1] - The base case is a hold on further rate cuts, contingent on weakening labor market or improved inflation [3] - Markets are predicting a different path than the Fed's dot plot, with expectations of rate cuts between 3% and 3.25% [5] - There is a risk of losing Fed independence, which could cause yields to rise [17] Inflation & Labor Market - Tariffs are estimated to contribute approximately 0.5 percentage points to inflation [9] - The Fed is facing a difficult balancing act with inflation above target and a weakening labor market [8] - The Fed has delivered 175 basis points of cuts [43] Credit Market Dynamics - High-grade bond sales cooled in December, with $4.7 billion sold, a quarter below the previous period [26] - December bond sales in high yield exceeded $20 billion, the busiest December since 2020 [26] - Investment grade supply is expected to grow year-over-year, reaching approximately $1.8 trillion to $1.9 trillion in 2026 [30] - Tech supply was up 75% and is expected to double, driven by hyperscalers' CAPEX expansion [32]

Geopolitical Landscape - US is considering security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace agreement with Russia [1][5] - Ukraine is considering a referendum on ceding territory to Russia [1] - Previous security assurances, such as the Budapest Memorandum in 1994, were not honored [3][4] US Involvement - President Trump is openly discussing a US role in providing security guarantees to Ukraine [5] - The US may send a delegation to Europe for talks if progress is being made [7] - The Trump administration has expressed frustration with the pace of talks [1][7] European Perspective - European countries would like to have further talks involving a US delegation [6] - The next diplomatic developments are expected within the next 48 hours [7]

Why is there so much passion around open. I mean, is is it a matter of business or is it a matter of philosophy. The philosophy is, you know, do you believe that there's any one company or any one group that will have all of the best ideas in the world or do you believe that if you have an open ecosystem where different researchers and different groups can contribute that you will end up with a better product um overall and throughout my career I look at you know sort of the different inflection points on t ...

GLOBAL SELLING OFF, DOES THIS INDICATE OPPORTUNITY. 10 YEAR YIELDS COMING BACK TOWARDS THAT 4.20% MARK7, 4.1%. PRESSURE BUILDING ON VENEZUELA.PRES. TRUMP: THEY HAVE TREATED US BADLY AND I GUESS NOW WE ARE NOT TREATING THEM SO GOOD. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DRUG TRAFFIC, DRUG TRAFFIC BY SEA IS DOWN 92% AND NOBODY COULD FIGURE OUT WHO THE 8% IS BECAUSE I HAVE NO IDEA.ANYBODY GETTING INVOLVED IN THAT RIGHT NOW IS NOT DOING WELL AND WE WILL START THAT ON LAND, TOO. IT'S GOING TO BE STARTING ON LAND PRETTY SOON. LISA: ...

How did we get here. Yeah. So this the news of this deficit was revealed in July, but it was a long time in the making.And basically what we know about this shortfall is that it comes from escalating transportation costs, unbudgeted health care expenses, and then rising special education costs. So basically, now that the district has realized that these unbudgeted expenses are far outpacing revenues, they have to address this shortfall because in New Jersey, you cannot a school district cannot operate in a ...

Is it a catalytic moment to look more broadly or invest more broadly. So again, the narrative has been so much has been confined to these seven stocks, so much it is confined to these hyperscalers this particular sector. Is this the moment in which people begin to look more seriously at some of the other sectors and companies that you've been alluding to here in Lisa pointing out in the last hour what we've seen in small caps, what we've seen the Russell 2000 over the last week, an indication to you that th ...

REACHING $100,000 A YEAR IN SOME PLACES. MORE PEOPLE ARE QUESTIONING THE VALUE OF THAT HIGHER EDUCATION. UBS SHARES ARE HITTING A 17 YEAR HIGH AFTER GROUP OF INFLUENTIAL SWISS LAWMAKERS PROPOSED WATERING DOWN THE CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR THE BANK.THE PROPOSAL WOULD ALLOW UBS TO USE JUNIOR DEBT, SO-CALLED AT-1 BONDS. I WANT TO BRING IN OUR CHIEF WALL STREET CORRESPONDED AT THE DESK. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT STORY ON SO MANY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR VIEWERS AND CLIENTS.IT MEANS UBS PROBABLY WILL NOT MOVE TO NEW ...

I would like to bring to Jeffrey's attention that Croup's feeder fund to Dr. . James Simons's fund, Renaissance LLC, will be closing to new investors at the end of this month as it nears its limit of [music] 499 investors. I feel it would be a mistake to not make this investment.Just weeks after Jeffrey Epste was charged with soliciting prostitution, his office received a coveted invitation, a shot at investing with the hedge fund Renaissance Technologies, whose reputation for success is almost mythical. He ...

It's 5AM in New York City. Good morning. I'm Vonnie Quinn with your Bloomberg Brief.Here's what you need to know. Stocks hitting records even as tech caution continues. That rotation trade ongoing with cyclicals getting a boost from the fed's dovish course.Meantime, Broadcom disappoints. Investors look for a bigger payoff. Plus, President Trump signals U.S. help with Ukraine security as President Zelensky floats a referendum on handing over territory to Russia.So let's take a look at those markets then. Fut ...

>> NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS THE PULSE. TOM: GOOD MORNING, WELCOME TO THE PULSE.I'M TOM MACKENZIE. UBS, ONE OF THE BIGGEST GAINERS ON THE STOXX 600 AFTER A GROUP OF CENTER-RIGHT SWISS LAWMAKERS PROPOSE A COMPROMISE ON ITS CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS. IT ALLOWS THE BANK TO USE MORE CONVERTIBLE BONDS TO MEET ITS FUTURE HIGHER REQUIREMENT.JOINING US NOW IS LAURA NOONAN. HOW FAR DOES THIS GO TO ADDRESS THE FEARS THAT UBS WILL HAVE TO RAISE A LOT MORE CAPITAL. LAURA: I WOULD SAY IT IS CERTAINLY POSITIVE NEW ...