Market Performance & AI Narrative - Amazon shares are outperforming the NASDAQ by approximately 1% due to Black Friday e-commerce focus [1] - Alphabet shares are up nearly 70% this year, while Amazon is up less than 6%, making it the worst-performing of the Meg 7 [5] - The industry observes that AI narratives are rapidly evolving [5] Amazon's AI Strategy & Challenges - Amazon aims to revamp its AI narrative with Alexa Plus, focusing on improved consumer AI assistant capabilities [1][2] - Alexa Plus offers more natural conversations and contact memory, pushing Amazon into the voice-controlled home market [2] - A Statista survey indicates Amazon Echo holds 61% of the US smart speaker market share [3] - Amazon has struggled to translate its smart speaker footprint into significant AI momentum [3] - The company's AI models haven't achieved breakthrough success, while Google's TPUs have gained industry traction [3] Future of AI Commerce & Amazon's Role - The industry anticipates "agentic commerce" or "AI commerce" to dominate the next holiday shopping season [7] - Amazon's existing device ecosystem is intended to facilitate easier consumer interactions and automated ordering [8] - Early reviews of Alexa Plus suggest chatbot improvements, but its ability to handle real-world tasks and ordering remains to be tested [9] - The industry notes that Amazon has been developing AI agents, but real-world consumer use cases are still limited [10]

Retail & Consumer Behavior - Black Friday weekend is expected to be record-setting, with nearly 190 million shoppers anticipated to hunt for deals [1] - Consumers show increasing interest in home-related products, differentiating from general gift or apparel shopping [3][5] Ethan Allen's Business Strategy & Performance - Ethan Allen is a vertically integrated company, manufacturing over 70-80% of its products in North America [3][10] - The company emphasizes the importance of combining good products, value, and interior design service [4] - Ethan Allen's interior design network is a key differentiator, enhancing customer experience during product delivery [6][7] - Written sales were up in the first quarter, despite delivery challenges related to government involvement [8] - Approximately 80% of Ethan Allen's products are manufactured in North America, providing a competitive advantage against tariffs [10] Housing Market & Economic Factors - Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate activity in housing and spending on furnishings [7] - Government shutdowns have previously created concerns, impacting business [3][5] - Home improvement market comps have been weak, highlighting the importance of specialized retailing and interior design focus [9][10] Manufacturing & Supply Chain - Ethan Allen maintains consistent product quality across different manufacturing locations, including Vermont, North Carolina, Mexico, and Honduras [12][13]

Let's stick with Amazon and its AI strategy as the company gets set to kick off this AWF reinvent conference next week. Joining us now is Maxim Group senior consumer internet analyst Tom Forte. Tom, do you expect them to talk more about Agentic Commerce.Yeah. So I definitely think Aentic commerce and Agentic AI will be a key theme for reinvent next week in addition to the company focusing on which is something deer talked about and you talked about the tranium 3 chip uh their effort there which has double t ...

Labor Dispute - Starbucks Workers United strike enters its third week, the longest since 2021, involving over 120 stores in 85+ cities and 200+ baristas [1] - The union represents 11,000 workers at 550 stores and threatens the largest and longest strike in its history, seeking improved hours, higher wages, and resolution of unfair labor practice charges [1][2] - Negotiations between Starbucks and the union have stalled since late last year [2] Company Response - Starbucks states 9% of its 17,000 US locations remain open and anticipates no meaningful disruption during the holiday season [3] - Starbucks claims readiness to negotiate when the union returns to the bargaining table [3] Business Impact - Starbucks reports strong holiday sales, with the best sales day ever when launching its holiday menu and the strongest Red Cup Day in store history [5] - The company indicates the strike has had minimal impact on sales, representing less than 1% of its total store count [4] Future Outlook - The potential exists for the strike to escalate, given 550 unionized stores across the country [6] - The situation remains ongoing for four years, with the union seeking a contract [6]

Labor Dispute & Unionization - Starbucks Workers United strike enters its third week, the longest since 2021, involving over 120 stores in 85+ cities with 200+ baristas [1] - The union represents 11,000 workers at 550 stores, seeking improved hours, higher wages, and resolution of unfair labor practice charges [1] - Negotiations between Starbucks and the union have stalled since late last year [1] - The union threatens to make this the largest and longest strike in its history [1] - Over 100 lawmakers, including Senator Bernie Sanders, have urged Starbucks to address worker demands and return to negotiations [5] - Previous CEO Howard Schultz testified before Capitol Hill regarding accusations related to the unionization push [6] Business Impact & Sales - Starbucks claims 99% of its 17,000 US locations remain open, anticipating no meaningful disruption from the strike [1] - Holiday sales have been strong, with the best sales day ever when the holiday menu launched [2] - Red Cup Day was the strongest in-store sales day in history [2] - The strike involves less than 1% of Starbucks' total store count [1][3] Political Involvement - Politicians are getting involved, including calls for boycotts [5]

Holiday Shopping Season & Promotions - Columbia is offering 50% off winter essentials during the Black Friday discount frenzy [1][2] - Black Friday has evolved into a global promotional period spanning from early November to Cyber Monday [3] - Consumers are seeking value, especially in North America [4] Tariffs & Pricing - Columbia anticipates raising prices in the spring and fall of 2026 due to tariffs [1][4] - Columbia was the 81st largest duty payer in the US in 2024, indicating existing high tariffs on its commodities [7] - The company expects to pay more in tariffs next year, necessitating price increases [8] - Tariffs are an important element of cost globally [8] Global Business & Sourcing - The company's products are sold at the highest value and velocity in warmer regions like the Middle East [6] - Columbia sources its products globally, primarily from the Asian continent, with Vietnam being the largest single source [8][9] Stock Performance & Future Outlook - The stock's underperformance is attributed to not meeting investor expectations for sales and asset returns [13] - The company emphasizes improving its product offerings to drive future performance [13][14] - The company has a strong balance sheet [14] AI Impact - The company believes AI technologies will improve operational efficiency but not necessarily product quality [11][12]

Market Outlook - The market has been volatile and news-driven, especially in the AI space [2] - Market conditions are strong towards the end of the year and potentially through February [3] - Hedge funds have shown significant buying volume [4] - The market may experience low volatility due to the absence of major news cycles [4] - A Federal Reserve rate cut is anticipated, with Fed funds futures indicating an 86% chance [5] - The market is expected to perform well over the next four to five months [5] - GDP growth is expected to be around 2% [16] Investment Strategy - Investors should be mindful of market rotation, with value areas like financials, energy, and healthcare showing relative strength [9][10] - Technology stocks, while still showing growth, may need to consolidate [11] - Investors should avoid unprofitable tech names and meme stocks [11] - Metals are viewed positively, despite expected volatility [14] - Energy plays can satisfy both the AI growth story and the natural resources value story [15] Potential Risks and Considerations - The second year of a presidential cycle historically sees a correction, typically starting in mid-March [13] - Tax cuts and deregulation may mitigate the typical weakness in the second year of a presidential cycle [14] - The economy has "ankle weights" and will experience news-driven events that create volatility [17]

Gasoline Market - Sunoco's gasoline sales are flat overall for the economy, but the company is having a great year with approximately 16 billion gallons in sales, up 7% [2] - Diesel sales are up about 3% to 4%, indicating commerce growth within the United States [3] - Gasoline prices are down about 25% nationally (excluding California), around $3 per gallon, but driving is flat [4] - Electric vehicles (EVs) are eating into gasoline sales by about 1% per year, and car efficiency is reducing sales by about 0.5% per year, totaling a 1.5% reduction annually [5][6] Luxury Retail - Luxury retail centers are up double digits, over 12% this year, with Holland Park Village in Dallas up about 14% in luxury sales, indicating strong high-end consumer spending [7] - Mid-range tenants are up single digits, around 5% or 6% [9] - Creating an experience is crucial for attracting luxury shoppers to physical stores [8] Casual Dining - Commodity pressures have flattened this year, except for beef due to increased competition from India and China [10] - Delivery services have grown from 2% to 3% of sales to 15% to 20% [12] - Consumers, particularly those under 35, are willing to pay delivery fees [12] Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumers' credit cards are maxed out [13] - Labor costs are currently very flat [14] - Anticipating flat sales in 2026 for both Sunoco and shopping centers [15] - The current regulatory and tax environment under the Trump administration and Congress is positive for businesses [17]

Welcome back. Apple may be in a strong position to dominate holiday shopping this season. Some new data shows the iPhone maker drove Singles Day smartphone sales over in China this year, accounting for 26% of smartphones sold over the month-long event.Will that momentum now carry over into the US. Let's bring in big technology founder and CNBC contributor Alex Canowitz, who joins us here at Post. Happy Black Friday, Alex. >> Happy Black Friday.>> So, this there's a lot of commentary that this is going to be ...

For more on the consumer and retail, let's bring in LLBAN CEO Stephen Smith. How does demand look like to you so far, Stephen. This year.>> Yeah, good morning, Sarah and Carl, David Courtney as well. Uh, we're cautiously optimistic for the holiday and today is starting off well. Um, if I back up, it's been a really volatile year for the consumer.They've been incredibly resilient, but we've sort of bounced around, you know, with the rest of retail. September, October were a little bit soft, but November, we ...