Bitcoin Outlook & Market Drivers - Michael Saylor is bullish on Bitcoin in 2026, driven by bank acceptance and credit development within the banking network [4] - Half of the large US banks have started extending credit against IBIT in the past six months, with Charles Schwab and City planning to custody Bitcoin and extend credit against it in the first half of 2026 [4] - The impact of the Bitcoin halving is diminishing, with its $20 million impact being a third-order issue compared to the $50 billion daily liquidity [7] - Structural developments, such as banks extending $50 billion in credit and the SEC loosening restrictions on derivatives trading on IBIT (leading to open interest increasing from $10 billion to $50 billion), are the primary drivers of Bitcoin [8] Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Companies & Digital Credit - Strategy was the first company to purchase Bitcoin as digital capital, with over 21,000 Bitcoin for $250 million in 2020 [9] - The number of companies holding Bitcoin as digital capital has grown significantly, from a handful to over 200 [11] - Strategy has evolved into the largest issuer of digital credit, with only a few other companies like Strive and MetaPlanet also in the digital credit market [12][13] - The rise of DATs is attributed to a supportive administration, fair value accounting, and Bitcoin's 50% annual growth rate [16][17][19] - Digital credit, offering yields of 600-800 basis points (6-8%) above risk-free rates, is seen as a compelling product powered by digital capital [22] Crypto Company IPOs & Regulatory Environment - The current administration's embrace of digital assets has facilitated crypto company IPOs, including Galaxy Digital, Circle, American Bitcoin, and Gemini [24][25] - Constructive legislation, such as the Genius Act legitimizing stablecoins, has opened the way for crypto exchanges to go public [25] - The industry seeks clarity on tokenizing securities and currencies, raising capital with crypto tokens, and engaging in decentralized finance, with expectations for resolution in the Clarity Act [41][42] Bitcoin vs Altcoins & Institutional Adoption - Bitcoin is positioned as digital capital competing with gold, real estate, and public equity, while stablecoins are digital currency competing with traditional credit card networks [34][35] - Institutional adoption of crypto is expected to continue progressively, driven by positive guidance from banking regulators and banks announcing plans to custody and hold Bitcoin [46][47] - Banks moving into offering credit on digital assets, especially Bitcoin, is seen as beneficial for both banks and Bitcoin, acknowledging the $2 trillion of unbanked wealth [45]

Market Share & Key Players - Walmart, Costco, TJX, and Amazon are consistently gaining market share at the expense of other retailers [2] - These four retailers have been dominating for years, and this trend is expected to continue [1][2] - While some specialty players like GAP, Urban Outfitters, and Abercrombie can experience a "bounce" with good performance, their overall impact is small compared to the dominant retailers [3] - The mentioned retailers are the largest in terms of both market capitalization and market share [4] Consumer Behavior & Value - Consumers understand true value and respond accordingly, regardless of retailers' promotional tactics [5][6] - Black Friday sales have been extended across multiple days, but the day remains a significant shopping day, especially when combining in-store and online sales [7] - Younger generations (Gen Z and millennials) are driving foot traffic, suggesting an experiential aspect to in-store shopping [9] Emerging Brands & Sustainability - New brands are emerging and taking market share, particularly in specialty apparel [10] - Identifying brands with a sustainable formula is challenging, as many are "one-hit wonders" [11]

Consumer Sentiment & Shopping Trends - 84% of consumers are skeptical about Black Friday pricing, believing it's inflated [2] - Over half of consumers plan to shop on Black Friday and Cyber Monday [2] - Among the 18-24 demographic, a key shopping group, this figure rises to 70% [2] - Consumers are focusing on finding deals on everyday items due to current economic conditions [3][4] - The "lipstick effect" is observed, with consumers seeking smaller, affordable luxuries [4] Retail & Payment Processing Insights - Lightseed's retail data is primarily from the US market [7] - Lightseed has observed strong performance in hospitality markets in Europe throughout the year [7] - Lightseed sees good same-store sales in bikes, sports, and outdoor apparel segments, indicating shopping activity among higher-income consumers [6]

Joining us now, David Bonson from the Bonsson Group and Michael Farre from Far Miller in Washington. It's great to have both of you here. David, I'm going to start this conversation with you because we have seen dip buying.Uh we have seen a little bit of a rebound here, particularly in some of these big tech names uh into months end. You're saying don't buy the dip. Why.Well, I think that the names that have dipped the most are grotesqually overvalued, and they could easily catch a bid and rally, but it's e ...

Retail & E-commerce Trends - Black Friday is still a very important day for retail, with the National Retail Federation predicting 1304 million Americans will shop in some form [3] - Adobe predicts US online sales will hit nearly $12 billion, up more than 8% from last year [3] - Shopify reports $24 million sales per minute and 23000 change orders per minute [3] - Since last night, Shopify has seen 17 million unique shoppers across all stores [3] - Top product categories on Shopify include skincare, vitamins, supplements, and activewear [3] - Shopify merchants are generally offering discounts ranging from 10% to 30% [4] - Shopify reports that consumers are looking for value more than discounts, preferring to buy from brands they love [4] - Last year, Shopify did $93 billion over the 4-day period, and this year they did $115 billion [4] Supply Chain & Geopolitics - Nexperia China responded to an open letter, stating there's no situation where it cannot be contacted and accusing the Dutch company of destructive measures [2] - Concerns arise over an Intel hiring a TSMC executive, with Taiwan investigating potential transfer of chip secrets [2] Amazon & Prime Video Strategy - Amazon is investing heavily in sports to add more value to Prime membership, including NFL, NBA, NASCAR, and Champions League Soccer [5] - Amazon Prime Video advertising for Black Friday is up 40% year-over-year [5] - Amazon is making all sporting events available globally for free to any Amazon customer [7]

Bin, give me a final trade, please. >> Yes, speaking of Liberation Day, the cyber security ETF bug, it's almost back down there. I think it's a good entry point if you don't have any cyber security exposure.>> Okay, we found out Malcolm that you've added to yours. What's your final trade. >> Yeah, I guess doubling down here.Crowd Strike reports next week. See my previous comments about Zcaler. Okay, Steph, >> Amazon positive catalyst next week at their reinvent conference >> and Joe T.Speaking of Amazon, ho ...

I want to get to one more move though. Um, out of the the finance the financial space. Uh, Bin, you bought more of Blue Owl Tech Finance F.We really were watching BDC stocks very closely over the last month at least. Uh, and they all had a bad month. All all of them.Why are you buying more. So I think when you look at how people underwrite debt, right, whether it's Kimco, whether it's Blue Owl, you really have to or Apollo or Aries etc. who's doing the underwriting and do you have confidence in that team. A ...

Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) Analysis - The stock is down 11% from its highs, presenting a potential buying opportunity [1] - Core business is performing well with same store sales at 57%, compared to 64% last year [1] - The company is increasing its market share [2] Foot Locker Acquisition - The acquisition of Foot Locker has been problematic, resulting in a charge [2] - The company is taking steps to right-size the Foot Locker business and improve inventory [2][3] - Turnaround of the Foot Locker franchise could lead to better-than-expected same store sales in the future [3] Consumer Spending Trends - Retail sales grew 57% last month, indicating strong consumer spending [4] - Credit card data shows accelerating spending, suggesting a positive outlook for the holiday season [4] GAP (GPS) Analysis - Analyst would consider buying back GAP stock if it declines by 3-5% [5] - GAP is trading at 11 times forward estimates [5] - GAP is delivering on comparable sales across most of its brands, with Athleta being an exception [6] - Old Navy, Gap brands, and Banana Republic account for 80% of GAP's revenue [6] - Analyst previously sold GAP stock after a 25% gain and would repurchase on a pullback, believing a turnaround is underway [7]

Oracle Credit Risk & Debt Concerns - Morgan Stanley reiterates downside risks for Oracle credit and suggests maintaining a buy position on 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) protection outright after basis compression [2][3] - Pressure on Oracle's credit due to new construction loans could drive more hedging by bondholders [4] - Bondholder sentiment has shifted due to hyperscale bond deals offering investment alternatives, raising concerns about Oracle stock [5] - Analysts question whether Oracle can reach its estimated $90 billion debt target over the next 3 years without Open AI providing reassurances around the $300 billion deal [6] Oracle's AI Investment & Financial Strategy - Concerns exist around Oracle's data center financing strategy, particularly compared to Meta's approach, as Oracle lacks a direct path to revenue generation from these investments [9] - The market desires more clarity regarding Oracle's future debt commitments and financing plans, especially in relation to its AI investments [3][5] Software Sector & Alternative Investments - The software ETF is experiencing its worst month since January 2022, although skewed by a few names [10] - Zscaler's stock traded down about 10% after earnings, despite reporting 26% year-over-year growth in annually recurring revenue and beating expectations across the board [12][13] - Zscaler, securing approximately 45% of the Fortune 500, presents a buying opportunity as it's been dragged down with the broader software sector despite strong performance [14]

WE'LL SHOW YOU THE S&P IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD AS WELL. THERE'S YOUR FULL PICTURE RUSSELL UP ABOUT ONE HALF OF 1% YIELDS DOWN. AND THAT WAS PRETTY GOOD FOR STOCKS TO JOE DO YOU WANT TO YOU CAN ANSWER THE QUESTION OF WHAT YOU WANT FOR THE HOLIDAYS.I MEAN THE KIDS HAD SOME PRTY GOOD ANSWERS. YOU WANT A SANTA CLAUS RALLY. >> A SANTA CLAUS RALLY WOULD BE GOOD.AND I THINK IT LOOKS IT LOOKS A LOT LIKE WE'RE POTENTIALLY GOING TO GET IT. WE'VE REVERSED A LOT OF THE NEGATIVE MOMENTUM THAT GREETED US IN THE MONTH OF N ...