AI Debt & Investment Thesis - AI 债务是值得关注的，但生成式 AI 的成果依然存在，Agentic AI 将推动生产力提升 [2] - 所有公司都在积极投资 AI，以保持竞争力 [2][3] - 行业正在寻找新的 AI 用例，这将推动未来的支出 [3] - 存在多种参与 AI 交易的方式 [3] - 计算平台将继续是 AI 技术的基石，Nvidia 是关键平台 [5] - NAND 和 DRAM 等内存领域存在机会，因为需要更多存储真实世界和合成数据 [5] - 行业整合，特别是在 NAND 领域，提供了投资机会 [5] - AI 投资仍处于 S 曲线的早期阶段 [5] - 人们从大型语言模型的使用中获得了巨大的价值 [5] - AI 具有巨大的颠覆潜力 [6] Company Specifics - Oracle 的 5 年期违约信用互换量在过去一周呈指数级增长，可能存在对其激进债务融资的担忧，但基数较低，值得关注 [6][7] - Oracle 的杠杆是可控的，GPU 的使用寿命可能比预期的更长，可以产生大量利润 [7] - Palantir 在为公司实施 AI 方面处于领先地位，并为客户带来巨大价值 [10] - AMD 在快速增长的市场中占据一席之地，与 OpenAI 的合作加强了这一点 [10][11]

Pricing Trends in Apparel and Footwear - A third-party data source tracking e-commerce prices indicates a slight increase in apparel prices, but it's not a huge jump from previous trends [2][3][4] - The apparel industry has seen a mix shift into higher price point categories like work wear and tailored pants, contributing to gross margin highs [6][7] - Economists believe the full impact of tariffs hasn't been seen yet due to inventory timing, with potential one-time hits later on [8][9] - Apparel retailers typically hold three months of inventory, suggesting that the real pricing impact from tariffs will likely flow through P&Ls from November onwards [9][10] - Footwear businesses, often run as wholesale models, may see price increases more clearly in the first half of next year due to forward order books locked in for six months [11][12] Company-Specific Observations - Torrid and Anthropology (within Urban Outfitters) have shown the biggest price jumps since Liberation Day, potentially due to mix shift and strategic assortment changes [14][15] - On the footwear side, Hey Dude, Macy's, and Kohl's are showing more price increases compared to pre-liberation day levels, possibly due to a mix shift dynamic [16] - Department stores are trying to fortify themselves with popular and premium brands, actively adjusting their business model [17] Data Considerations - The pricing data factors in discounting and mix shift, but it's not possible to see exactly how these are factoring into the pricing [3] - The prices reflect the final selling price, taking into account discount codes and what shoppers actually paid [5]

Meanwhile, some movement on the housing front with demand for mortgages ticking up last week. Diana Ol has the numbers for us. Hi, Diana.>> Hey, Court. Yeah, even though we're heading smack into the slowest season for housing, home buyers seem to be making maybe one last gasp, likely because of more supply on the market and softening prices. Mortgage applications to buy a home rose 6% last week to their strongest pace since September, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.Now, volume was 31% higher ...

Operational Challenges - Delta experienced over 2,000 cancellations starting last Friday due to schedule adjustments [1] - Air Traffic Control (ATC) staffing shortages significantly impacted operations over the weekend [1] - A thunderstorm in Atlanta reduced arrival rates to 20 per hour, comparable to a heavy snowstorm impact [1] - Normal arrival rates for that time of day in Atlanta are typically 80 per hour [2] Recovery and Outlook - Operations improved significantly yesterday, and today started well [2] - The company anticipates a return to normal operations by the weekend, contingent on a vote occurring tonight [2][3] - Getting people paid is a priority [3]

Joining me now is Venu Krisha Barker's head of US strategy, equity strategy specifically. Thank you so much for being here with us. I'd love to talk about some of your changes. Let's talk about downgrading uh value to negative and your worries there.>> Yeah, I think you know we have been consistently positive on growth. So, and growth as you know is really dominated by technology where uh not just overall profitability but uh the scale of the beats of earnings continues. value other on the other hand has ex ...

um hyperscaler debt, it remains a big story. What can I tell you. I mean, there are more people who are putting out notes uh about it today and making comments on social media.I'm going to go through a couple because we always cite Michael Hartnet of Bank of America when he puts out notes related to the market. He says that being short hyperscaler bonds is a top trade for as their spreads have widened while cash flow has become insufficient to finance the AI buildout. He looks at the flow show note from Fri ...

Emily Wilkins is there with the latest. Hi Emily. >> Hey Courtney.Well, we are just hours away from a vote that at this point is expected to end this shutdown after 43 days. Uh we know that House members are back. We know that optimism is very high among leadership that they are going to have the votes.You saw President Donald Trump come out and already congratulate De Republican leaders on getting this one done. Now, we know that things are going to be tight just because of course it's the House. you have ...

Auction Overview - The US Treasury auctioned 42 billion USD in 10-year notes [2] - The auction represents the second leg of a 125 billion USD refunding [1] - Tomorrow will be 25 billion USD 30-year bonds [5] - This will complete 125 billion USD in auction supply [5] Yield and Pricing - The yield for the 10-year notes was 4074% [2] - The yield was approximately 0005% higher than the when-issued market trading price of 4068% [2] - A higher yield at auction's end typically indicates a slightly lower price [2] Auction Demand Assessment - The auction demand received a grade of "C" [3] - The bid-to-cover ratio was below average [3] - Dealer takedown was slightly above average at 105% compared to the 11% 10-auction average [3] Market Context - The market is paying close attention to debt due to yields moving down [1] - Current yield levels haven't been seen in about two weeks [1] - The market lacks main driving fundamentals or significant data releases [4]

Market Performance & Sector Rotation - Healthcare sector is up 45%, materials are up 3%, and financials are up 25% this week [1] - 27 out of 30 new S&P 52-week highs are non-technology companies, indicating a shift in market momentum [1] - Momentum is turning towards quality assets, initially seen in the dollar, crypto, and gold [2][3] - A catch-up trade is occurring, with investors seeking growth opportunities in sectors like pharma and biotech due to tech being overbought [5] - The catch-up trade is expected to benefit small caps and the equal-weighted S&P, potentially narrowing the performance gap [6] Macroeconomic Factors & Risks - Potential government reopen may release delayed data, which could impact market sentiment and Fed policy [6][7] - Private labor data might indicate upcoming challenges, potentially influencing the Fed's decisions in December [7] - Volatility is expected to persist until the Fed's decision, with major events like Nvidia's report and the Fed decision on December 10th on the horizon [8][9] Healthcare Sector Analysis - Healthcare was unloved for most of the year, making it an attractive opportunity for investors seeking growth [5] - Rotation into healthcare is occurring, but the sector may contain landmines depending on specific investments [11] - Government spending cuts and insurance companies increasing margins could impact the healthcare sector [13] - Biotech is benefiting from lower rates, and healthcare is seen as a place to put money due to years of underperformance [14][15] - Some healthcare stocks have underperformed significantly, making new 12-month highs relatively easier to achieve [16] End-of-Year Outlook - The market is experiencing a chase for performance, with opportunities existing in areas beyond mega-cap tech [4][19] - The current rally is expected to continue until the end of the year, driven by the recognition of opportunities in other market areas [19] - The market is pausing in terms of upside, with volatility remaining a key factor until the Fed's decision [8]

again. So, buying Nvidia in your ARS portfolio and trimming Broadcom. >> Yeah, >> that's why >> it's I would say portfolio management.What we we're supposed to do is buy low, sell high, and we bought Avago um Broadcom in June of 2024. The stock is up 160%. Since we bought it, so it's long-term.It's become a big position. We've added to it some along the way, but we have big gains. We didn't own Nvidia.We are holding our chip position. We're increasing it overall, >> but it makes sense to have both. We think ...