Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing an upward trend despite increasing geopolitical tensions following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro [1] Group 1 - The stock market has been climbing, indicating investor confidence [1] - Rising geopolitical tensions are present, particularly related to the situation in Venezuela [1] - The capture of Nicolás Maduro by the U.S. is a significant event influencing market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced significant declines, with various metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium seeing sharp drops in prices [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, precious metals faced a severe downturn, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 4.45%, COMEX silver futures plummeting by 7.2%, spot gold falling over 4%, spot silver crashing over 9%, spot palladium declining over 15%, and spot platinum decreasing over 14% [5]. - The following day, December 30, the market saw a general rebound, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.2%, spot gold increasing by 0.17%, COMEX silver futures gaining 7.88%, spot silver up by 5.66%, and NYMEX platinum futures rising by 4% [5]. Group 2: Future Outlook - UBS warned that the rapid increase in precious metal prices is largely due to insufficient market liquidity, indicating a potential for a swift decline [5]. - Analysts from Capital Economics stated that the current prices of precious metals have risen to levels that are difficult to justify based on fundamentals, predicting that silver prices may drop to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [5]. - Huolong Futures noted that silver is currently outperforming gold, with greater short-term volatility and amplitude. They cautioned that the ongoing bullish trend in silver may be entering a "frenzy stage," advising ordinary investors against hasty participation [5].

Market Outlook - The upcoming Santa Claus rally is anticipated, with historical data indicating a 77% probability of market gains during this period, which starts tomorrow [2][3][4] - The market is currently experiencing low volatility, as indicated by the VIX being at its year low, which is generally seen as a bullish sign [5][6][7] Economic Indicators - GDP growth for the second half of the year is projected to exceed 3%, which is a positive indicator for cyclical sectors such as financials, materials, and industrials [9][10][12] - The first half of the year saw a GDP increase of 2.2%, with significant contributions from AI and capital expenditures [10] Sector Performance - Cyclical sectors have underperformed over the last two years, but there is optimism that economic data will support a rally in these areas [8][9] - The market is favoring cyclical stocks over defensive ones as the global economy is expected to accelerate into 2026 [13] Commodity Trends - Commodities like gold, silver, and copper are showing strength, with gold and silver reaching new all-time highs, which historically benefits emerging markets [14][15] - Metals and mining sectors are expected to perform well, with silver and copper recently breaking out above previous trading levels [16]

STRATEGIST AT THE CARSON GROUP RYAN GOOD MORNING. GOOD TO SEE YOU. >> GOOD MORNING FRANK I FORGOT TO GET THE MEMO TO WEAR SOME GREEN TODAY.BUT LOOKING GOOD FRANK. THANKS. >> WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.I'M TRYING TO BE IN THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SPEAKING OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT, I FOLLOW YOU ON SOCIAL MEDIA. RYAN, YOU WERE POSTING ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE DIDN'T GET A SANTA CLAUS RALLY THE LAST TWO YEARS, BUT WE'VE NEVER MISSED THREE IN A ROW.YOU'RE ALMOST SOUNDS LIKE YOU'RE ALMOST GUARANTEEING A SANTA RALLY THIS YEA ...

Market Trend Analysis - December trading tends to be quiet towards the end of the year, anticipating the Santa Claus rally [1] - Historically, September is the only month with a negative median return since 1990 [2] - December tends to be positive about 80% of the time [3] - A model based on the median since 1928 suggests a dip in the middle of December followed by a rally into year-end [6] - When markets are up significantly coming into December, consolidation is expected for the first half of the month [7][10] Volatility Analysis - The VIX volatility index generally moves inversely to stock prices [8] - Post liberation day saw a significant spike in VIX [8] - VIX typically decreases from October into the end of the year as traders go on holiday [9] Trading Strategy - Markets tend to rise or move sideways as volatility decreases [10] - Small caps tend to outperform large caps like the S&P 500 [11] - The Santa Claus rally encompasses the last five trading days of December and the first two of the new year [11] Risk Management - Stocks rarely crash in December, with 2018 being a notable exception [10] - Significant sell-offs at the end of the year tend to coincide with market bottoms and tops [10] - Seasonality only accounts for about one-third of price action, with catalysts and daily events accounting for at least two-thirds [7]

So, with seasonality on the horizon, this week's rebound, do we think a year-long rally year end rally is coming. Guy >> gobble gobble. >> I had to say that.Happy hump day. Let's get it out of our system now. >> Okay, it's out. It's amazing.You know, Tim talked about this the other day. The fact that last week we were talking about I was talking about the potential for an outside month to the downside when the S&P 500 was 6,500ish. We had made a new all-time high in the month of November.We were flirting wi ...

Core Insights - The Fear and Greed Index is currently indicating "Extreme Fear," with various measures of investor sentiment being referenced, including the VIX for stocks and CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index [1][3][6] Stock Market Insights - The VIX, a key volatility measure for the stock market, has recently spiked, which historically tends to occur in October and November, suggesting potential ongoing market challenges [2][3] - CNN's Fear and Greed Index for stocks is also showing "Extreme Fear" as of November 21, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [3] Cryptocurrency Insights - CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index is also in "Extreme Fear," reflecting the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market [6] - The index is calculated using factors such as price momentum, expected volatility, derivatives market activity, market composition, and proprietary data on user engagement and trends [7][8][9] Gold Market Insights - JM Bullion's Fear and Greed Index for gold is currently in the "Greed" quintile, suggesting a positive sentiment towards gold as a safe haven amid stalled equity and crypto markets [10][11] - The index considers factors like physical gold price premiums, spot price volatility, social media sentiment, retail activity, and Google Trends related to gold [11]

Group 1 - The current institutional focus is on the basic chemical, defense, automotive, textile and apparel, non-bank financial, and media industries, while the telecommunications sector has seen a decline in institutional attention [1] - In the past week, there has been an increase in institutional interest in the "petroleum and petrochemical," "coal," "steel," "light manufacturing," and "non-bank financial" sectors [1] - Many industries are currently at the threshold of triggering congestion indicators (liquidity, consistency of constituent stocks) [1] Group 2 - The relative returns for electric power and utilities, basic chemicals, electric equipment and new energy, electronics, and computers are expected to be favorable by November 2025 [1] - The VIX for gold, silver, copper, and crude oil has risen, and the medium to long-term outlook for gold remains bullish [1]

One thing that you're looking at is the volatility, the VIX in particular since the government shutdown started. We kind of hit a high of 25 about two weeks into the government shutdown. Big decline since then.Is that the best way to play this playing the uh the VIX options. >> Well, the VIX actually is is just a great indicator to tell us uh the pricing of options. So, when VIX is really low, it means that option prices are are actually rather cheap, including uh puts and calls.But uh the recent rise Frank ...

- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is structured to capture different time horizons, providing insights into short-term and long-term volatility expectations. As of November 7, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 18.55 for SSE 50, 19.17 for CSI 300, 26.21 for CSI 500, and 23.84 for CSI 1000[64][66][67] - The **Cinda-SKEW index** measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices in the options market. It captures market sentiment regarding tail risks, with higher values indicating increased concern about potential market downturns. As of November 7, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 103.82 for SSE 50, 108.08 for CSI 300, 101.38 for CSI 500, and 106.80 for CSI 1000[73][76][78] - The report evaluates **index futures basis adjustment**, where the annualized basis is calculated as: $ Annualized Basis = (Actual Basis + Expected Dividend Points) / Index Price × 360 / Remaining Days of Contract $ This adjustment accounts for the impact of dividends on futures prices during the contract's lifespan[20][21][28] - The **IC futures contract** (CSI 500) shows a downward trend in annualized basis, with a current basis of -9.74% as of November 7, 2025, lower than the median since 2022. The contract's trading volume and open interest have decreased compared to the previous week[21][22][27] - The **IF futures contract** (CSI 300) exhibits a current annualized basis of -2.96%, also below the median since 2022. Trading volume and open interest for IF contracts have similarly declined week-over-week[28][29][32] - The **IH futures contract** (SSE 50) has a current annualized basis of -0.24%, reflecting a decrease from the previous week. Open interest and trading volume for IH contracts have also reduced[33][34][37] - The **IM futures contract** (CSI 1000) shows a current annualized basis of -12.49%, marking a decline from the prior week. Open interest and trading volume for IM contracts have decreased as well[39][41][44] - The report evaluates **hedging strategies** for index futures, including continuous hedging and minimum basis strategies. Continuous hedging involves rolling over contracts near expiration, while minimum basis strategies select contracts with the smallest basis. Both strategies are tested across IC, IF, IH, and IM futures contracts[46][47][48] - **IC hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: -3.20% (monthly), -2.20% (quarterly), -1.69% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 3.84% (monthly), 4.76% (quarterly), 4.56% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -10.25% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis) - Net value: 0.8990 (monthly), 0.9297 (quarterly), 0.9459 (minimum basis)[49][50][52] - **IF hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: 0.43% (monthly), 0.72% (quarterly), 1.18% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 2.93% (monthly), 3.28% (quarterly), 3.05% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis) - Net value: 1.0141 (monthly), 1.0237 (quarterly), 1.0391 (minimum basis)[51][55][54] - **IH hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: 1.09% (monthly), 1.99% (quarterly), 1.72% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 3.01% (monthly), 3.41% (quarterly), 3.02% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis) - Net value: 1.0361 (monthly), 1.0668 (quarterly), 1.0574 (minimum basis)[56][59][58] - **IM hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: -6.26% (monthly), -4.58% (quarterly), -4.20% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 4.75% (monthly), 5.78% (quarterly), 5.54% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis) - Net value: 0.8282 (monthly), 0.8437 (quarterly), 0.8620 (minimum basis)[60][61][62]