The stock market has been climbing despite rising geopolitical tensions after the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. ...

贵金属市场全线跳水。 12月31日午间，国际贵金属市场全线走低。现货白银、COMEX白银、现货铂金、现货钯金、NYMEX铂、NYMEX钯等多个品种大幅下 跌。 此外，黄金现货走低转跌，COMEX黄金跌幅加大。 昨日（12月30日），贵金属市场普遍反弹，COMEX黄金期货涨0.2%；现货黄金涨0.17%；COMEX白银期货涨7.88%；现货白银涨5.66%； NYMEX铂期货收涨4%。 对于贵金属市场后市，瑞银警告称，当前贵金属价格的迅速上涨，很大程度是由于市场流动性不足——这意味着很可能快速回落。 凯投宏观分析师则在报告中写道："贵金属价格已经上涨到我们认为难以用基本面解释的水平。"他们预计，白银价格到明年年底可能回落 至约42美元/盎司。 华龙期货认为，当前白银走势强于黄金，短线波动性和振幅大于黄金。白银的逼仓行情仍在持续且涨势加速，目前已进入"狂热阶段"，不 建议普通投资者贸然参与。低于65的金银比和高位的VIX提示白银可能超涨，目前短线面临的回调风险越来越大，多头持仓需注意仓位管理 并提前设置好止损。白银中长线投资者可通过买入看跌期权从而在价格回调期间保护自己的期货多头头寸。 （文章来源：证券时报） 近 ...

Speaking of the holiday spirit, I follow you on social media, Ryan. You were posting about the fact that we didn't get a Santa Claus rally the last two years, but we've never missed three in a row. You're It sounds like you're almost guaranteeing a S Santa rally this year.You say these seven days of the Santa rally that start tomorrow technically, you clarified it, have the highest probability be of higher out of any other seven days of the year. So, are you are you predicting a Santa Claus rally is coming. ...

STRATEGIST AT THE CARSON GROUP RYAN GOOD MORNING. GOOD TO SEE YOU. >> GOOD MORNING FRANK I FORGOT TO GET THE MEMO TO WEAR SOME GREEN TODAY.BUT LOOKING GOOD FRANK. THANKS. >> WELL, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.I'M TRYING TO BE IN THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT. SPEAKING OF THE HOLIDAY SPIRIT, I FOLLOW YOU ON SOCIAL MEDIA. RYAN, YOU WERE POSTING ABOUT THE FACT THAT WE DIDN'T GET A SANTA CLAUS RALLY THE LAST TWO YEARS, BUT WE'VE NEVER MISSED THREE IN A ROW.YOU'RE ALMOST SOUNDS LIKE YOU'RE ALMOST GUARANTEEING A SANTA RALLY THIS YEA ...

Market Trend Analysis - December trading tends to be quiet towards the end of the year, anticipating the Santa Claus rally [1] - Historically, September is the only month with a negative median return since 1990 [2] - December tends to be positive about 80% of the time [3] - A model based on the median since 1928 suggests a dip in the middle of December followed by a rally into year-end [6] - When markets are up significantly coming into December, consolidation is expected for the first half of the month [7][10] Volatility Analysis - The VIX volatility index generally moves inversely to stock prices [8] - Post liberation day saw a significant spike in VIX [8] - VIX typically decreases from October into the end of the year as traders go on holiday [9] Trading Strategy - Markets tend to rise or move sideways as volatility decreases [10] - Small caps tend to outperform large caps like the S&P 500 [11] - The Santa Claus rally encompasses the last five trading days of December and the first two of the new year [11] Risk Management - Stocks rarely crash in December, with 2018 being a notable exception [10] - Significant sell-offs at the end of the year tend to coincide with market bottoms and tops [10] - Seasonality only accounts for about one-third of price action, with catalysts and daily events accounting for at least two-thirds [7]

So, with seasonality on the horizon, this week's rebound, do we think a year-long rally year end rally is coming. Guy >> gobble gobble. >> I had to say that.Happy hump day. Let's get it out of our system now. >> Okay, it's out. It's amazing.You know, Tim talked about this the other day. The fact that last week we were talking about I was talking about the potential for an outside month to the downside when the S&P 500 was 6,500ish. We had made a new all-time high in the month of November.We were flirting wi ...

Core Insights - The Fear and Greed Index is currently indicating "Extreme Fear," with various measures of investor sentiment being referenced, including the VIX for stocks and CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index [1][3][6] Stock Market Insights - The VIX, a key volatility measure for the stock market, has recently spiked, which historically tends to occur in October and November, suggesting potential ongoing market challenges [2][3] - CNN's Fear and Greed Index for stocks is also showing "Extreme Fear" as of November 21, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [3] Cryptocurrency Insights - CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear and Greed Index is also in "Extreme Fear," reflecting the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market [6] - The index is calculated using factors such as price momentum, expected volatility, derivatives market activity, market composition, and proprietary data on user engagement and trends [7][8][9] Gold Market Insights - JM Bullion's Fear and Greed Index for gold is currently in the "Greed" quintile, suggesting a positive sentiment towards gold as a safe haven amid stalled equity and crypto markets [10][11] - The index considers factors like physical gold price premiums, spot price volatility, social media sentiment, retail activity, and Google Trends related to gold [11]

中信建投研报表示，当前机构关注基础化工、国防军工、汽车、纺织服装、非银行金融和传媒行业，通 信行业的机构关注度从高位下降。最近一周"石油石化"、"煤炭"、"钢铁"、"轻工制造"和"非银行金 融"行业的机构关注度在提升。当前较多行业处于触发拥挤指标阈值的状态（流动性、成分股一致 性）。2025年11月看好电力及公用事业、基础化工、电力设备及新能源、电子和计算机的相对收益。黄 金、白银、铜和原油的VIX抬升，中长期依然看多黄金。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

One thing that you're looking at is the volatility, the VIX in particular since the government shutdown started. We kind of hit a high of 25 about two weeks into the government shutdown. Big decline since then.Is that the best way to play this playing the uh the VIX options. >> Well, the VIX actually is is just a great indicator to tell us uh the pricing of options. So, when VIX is really low, it means that option prices are are actually rather cheap, including uh puts and calls.But uh the recent rise Frank ...

- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is structured to capture different time horizons, providing insights into short-term and long-term volatility expectations. As of November 7, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 18.55 for SSE 50, 19.17 for CSI 300, 26.21 for CSI 500, and 23.84 for CSI 1000[64][66][67] - The **Cinda-SKEW index** measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices in the options market. It captures market sentiment regarding tail risks, with higher values indicating increased concern about potential market downturns. As of November 7, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 103.82 for SSE 50, 108.08 for CSI 300, 101.38 for CSI 500, and 106.80 for CSI 1000[73][76][78] - The report evaluates **index futures basis adjustment**, where the annualized basis is calculated as: $ Annualized Basis = (Actual Basis + Expected Dividend Points) / Index Price × 360 / Remaining Days of Contract $ This adjustment accounts for the impact of dividends on futures prices during the contract's lifespan[20][21][28] - The **IC futures contract** (CSI 500) shows a downward trend in annualized basis, with a current basis of -9.74% as of November 7, 2025, lower than the median since 2022. The contract's trading volume and open interest have decreased compared to the previous week[21][22][27] - The **IF futures contract** (CSI 300) exhibits a current annualized basis of -2.96%, also below the median since 2022. Trading volume and open interest for IF contracts have similarly declined week-over-week[28][29][32] - The **IH futures contract** (SSE 50) has a current annualized basis of -0.24%, reflecting a decrease from the previous week. Open interest and trading volume for IH contracts have also reduced[33][34][37] - The **IM futures contract** (CSI 1000) shows a current annualized basis of -12.49%, marking a decline from the prior week. Open interest and trading volume for IM contracts have decreased as well[39][41][44] - The report evaluates **hedging strategies** for index futures, including continuous hedging and minimum basis strategies. Continuous hedging involves rolling over contracts near expiration, while minimum basis strategies select contracts with the smallest basis. Both strategies are tested across IC, IF, IH, and IM futures contracts[46][47][48] - **IC hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: -3.20% (monthly), -2.20% (quarterly), -1.69% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 3.84% (monthly), 4.76% (quarterly), 4.56% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -10.25% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis) - Net value: 0.8990 (monthly), 0.9297 (quarterly), 0.9459 (minimum basis)[49][50][52] - **IF hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: 0.43% (monthly), 0.72% (quarterly), 1.18% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 2.93% (monthly), 3.28% (quarterly), 3.05% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis) - Net value: 1.0141 (monthly), 1.0237 (quarterly), 1.0391 (minimum basis)[51][55][54] - **IH hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: 1.09% (monthly), 1.99% (quarterly), 1.72% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 3.01% (monthly), 3.41% (quarterly), 3.02% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis) - Net value: 1.0361 (monthly), 1.0668 (quarterly), 1.0574 (minimum basis)[56][59][58] - **IM hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: -6.26% (monthly), -4.58% (quarterly), -4.20% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 4.75% (monthly), 5.78% (quarterly), 5.54% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis) - Net value: 0.8282 (monthly), 0.8437 (quarterly), 0.8620 (minimum basis)[60][61][62]