Earnings and Economic Outlook - Second quarter earnings are on pace for 10% year-on-year growth, with double-digit growth likely by year-end [2] - Expectation of softening in the economy in the second half of the year, but not recessionary [2] - Anticipation of lower interest rates by the Federal Reserve in 2026, coupled with a potential tax bill kicking in next year, supporting continued earnings growth [2] Federal Reserve Policy - Market overreacted to the possibility of three rate cuts this year; one to two cuts are more likely [3] - Cooling labor market data, with revisions substantially lower for the past two months, supports the potential for the Fed to move rates towards a neutral level of around 35% [4][5] - Expectation that Jerome Powell will signal a potential rate cut and indicate that a 50 basis point rate cut is unlikely [6] Investment Strategy and Technology - Tech and AI sectors have exceeded expectations in terms of capex, data center spending, revenue, and earnings [9] - Investors should have exposure to the long-term secular story in AI and technology [10] - Expectation that sectors benefiting from productivity gains, such as healthcare, industrials, and financial services, will participate in the AI and technology growth [10] - AI and technology are expected to help reduce inflationary pressures by making costs more effective [12] - Margin expansion is anticipated in 2026, partly driven by the AI story [13] - Technology will be used to supplement labor, a trend expected to start next year and continue in the years ahead [15]

From Lamborghini to McLaren, these new 15% tariffs on sports cars wasn't as bad as some expected, but it could cause even some of the wealthiest buyers to hold off on purchasing a new car. Our Robert Frank is live from Pebble Beach this morning with that story. Morning, Robert.Carl, great to see you. Well, classic cars are exempt from tariffs. So, this 1969 Lamborghini, estimated at $2 million, would only pay the existing 2.5% duty.So they wouldn't pay any extra tariffs. But a new Lamborghini is going to co ...

But first, breaking economic data just crossing. Rick Santelli has that for us. Hey, Rick.Yes. Let's start out with University of Michigan sentiment. Now, these are August preliminary numbers, so they'll change in a couple weeks.I'll tell you right off the bat, they're sequentially lower. We're expecting a headline number around 62. Our last final month read was 617, 58.6%. 58.6%.That's the weakest since May when it was 52.2%. in April when it was 52.2%. Now if we look at current conditions 60.9% our last l ...

Shares United Healthcare in a so-called Buffett bump today after Bergkshire Hathaway and a number of other bigname investors reveal new positions in the insurance giant. Shares are up about 12 and a half% right now. Our Bertha Kums joins us now with much more in this story. Bertha, good morning. Good morning, Frank. The Berkshire Hathway filing sent shares of beaten down United Health stock above $300 for the first time since July 14th. Berkshire initiating a five million share stake, making it one of the b ...

Stephen McClur, thank you very much for joining us here in studio. Thanks so much for having me, Talia. Absolutely.So, the last time we spoke, you were the CIO of the asset management firm Valkyrie, and we spoke in person back at the end of 2023, and that's right before the SEC gave the green light for spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the time, you said you were optimistic they will in fact get approved by the SEC, and sure enough, you were right. Well, now you're the CEO of the investment firm Canary Capital, and so ...

partly the conventional wisdom for what how should a central bank respond to a stagflationary shock which I think of tariffs a as having a heavy stagflationary component you the primary effect the the Fed can't pump oil the Fed can't adjust the supply side but it can try to prevent the secondary impacts which could be wage price spirals or if you start thinking about the secondary impacts of tariffs on parts, components, supplies, and intermediate goods. Now, it's a little more complicated than the Econ 101 ...

Welcome back to Worldwide Exchange. CNBC is celebrating Black Business Month this August. As part of that, I sat down with Robert Smith, founder, chairman, and CEO of Vista Equity Partners, one of the largest software investors in the world.We talked about his new book, Lead Boldley, where he shares his insights on seven principles from Dr. . Martin Luther King Jr. . His wheelhouse, of course, is the private markets, but we also talked about his view of the stock market and the bond market and the opportuni ...

All right, why don't we start off with the news. Uh, Bergkshire Hathaway, Appaloo, also Michael Bur buying into UNH. What do you make of that buy.>> Uh, I think it's a great long-term play. I think a lot of investors are are wondering when it's going to bottom. They're basically a systemically important company to America with their their embeddedness in our insurance market, private and public.And so, I look at this, it may be a long-term play, but it could be a phenomenal buy and a little bit of a bottom ...

Got to be a big day for you. I'm sure the phones are ringing off the hook about this one. I think really the question here is does this mean anything more than these investors are interested in UNH.So, we're gonna get more into UNH in a second, but do you think this might be a sign that the healthcare trade is bottoming. I'm looking healthcare is the the lagging sector this year is still down about 3%. Yeah, I I think that's a great point.Um we hosted a team call on Monday and one of the interesting stats f ...

Tariff Impact - The athletic footwear industry has historically faced tariffs of approximately 20% from Southeast Asia [1] - Current tariffs represent a 100% increase on duties for the company when importing into the US [2] - The company states it cannot fully absorb the tariff increase while maintaining investment in R&D, innovation, and employees [2] - Slight price increases are expected in 2026 as a result of the tariffs [2] Production and Sourcing - The company intends to maintain its production locations overseas in Asia, specifically Southeast Asia [1]