Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - AI and tech industry consolidation may occur in the new year [1] - There will be a war for talent among the biggest AI players, with potential new entrants [3] - A drive towards efficiency in AI model training is expected, moving away from constant expansion of data centers and GPUs [3] - Open source AI models, particularly from China and the US, will provide basic levels of compute and access [9][10] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - Breakthroughs in AI efficiency will lead to the rise of certain players, potentially acquired by larger companies [8] - Some believe there is a bubble around the constant upward spiral of more GPUs, power consumption, and data centers [8] - Major transactions in the large language model space are possible, especially for more efficient players [12] - Anthropic's valuation could potentially reach hundreds of billions of dollars, though this is viewed as unlikely [13] Company Strategy & Financial Performance - Meta is investing extensively in building a larger team focused on AI [6] - Apple has a significant cash hoard and stock to deploy for potential acquisitions in the AI space [11] - Companies with nine-figure (hundreds of millions) to twelve-figure (trillions) valuations are considering operating independently [13] - The resource intensity of operating AI models can be a cash drain [14]

COMPANIES. AND WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THAT A LITTLE BIT THIS MORNING. >> I KNOW.TESLA SHARES ARE TRADING CLOSE TO A RECORD HIGH. YESTERDAY I LOOKED GOT TO 4.98% AT ONE POINT YESTERDAY. BUT THE CLOSING HIGH I THINK IS LIKE 4.89% AND CHANGE.WE'D ALMOST BE THERE RIGHT NOW FOR IF IT'S ONLY UP $0.62%. VERY VOLATILE THOUGH, BUT BASICALLY TRADING AT AN ALL TIME HIGH. DAN LEVY IS BARCLAYS SENIOR AUTO ANALYST AS IT CARS.IS IT TAXIS. IS IT WHAT IS IT AT THIS POINT. AND MAYBE THE THE CONCERN ABOUT THE EXPIRING SUBSI ...

Welcome back to Squawkbox. Rick Santelli here live at CME HQ with some delayed but very important data points. We'll be looking at October preliminary durable goods.Philly Fed and GDP second time around the block delayed third quarter numbers. We're looking for 3.3% zoom zoom zoom 4.3%. 4.3%.That is a nice jump. And I know many may question day the gathering, but on the surface this would be the strongest quarter going back to the third quarter of 2023 when it was 4.7%. This is strong.3.5% on consumption bl ...

Oil Market Analysis - US liquid supply has increased by 13 million barrels per day, with approximately half from crude oil and half from natural gas liquids [2] - The current oil price level is considered attractive for the US economy as a whole [5] - An oil price in the low 50s (USD) is estimated to be needed for US shale producers to make a 15% return [6] - Strong supply growth environment exists due to the US, Brazil, Guyana, and core OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia [4] Metals Market Analysis - Fed cuts tend to support metals prices significantly more than energy prices [7] - Annual gold production from mines is only 1% of the total stock [9] - Potential US tariffs are leading to metal being shipped outside of the London market, putting upward pressure on both silver and copper prices [11] Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) - The US is refilling the SPR at a very slow pace [12] - The optimal level of SPR may be lower than when the US was a net importer [13]

Tariffs and Trade Policy - The administration believes tariffs are not a tax on U S companies but a form of leverage against foreign countries that depend on the U S market [7][8][24] - The administration argues that countries with trade deficits with the U S depend on the U S economy and therefore bear the cost of tariffs by reducing prices [9][25] - The administration asserts that tariffs are a tool to rebalance global trade and bring back manufacturing and supply chains to the U S [19][5][14] - The administration views tariffs as a "beautiful thing" and a "dial for leverage" to negotiate trade deals and address non-tariff barriers [18][20][21] - The administration claims that tariffs have not caused inflation and are bringing investment into the U S [11][26] Manufacturing and Supply Chains - The administration acknowledges that bringing back manufacturing and supply chains takes time, similar to the time it took for China to build its manufacturing base [4][13][14] - The administration aims to bring back both factories and supply chains to the U S, emphasizing the national security aspects of domestic production [5][14] - The administration suggests that construction jobs will come first, followed by manufacturing jobs, as investment increases [6] Economic Outlook - The speaker expressed optimism about the economy, predicting the Dow Jones Industrial Average would reach 50,000 [16] - The administration is focusing on reducing inflation by addressing key areas such as housing, healthcare, and food [17] - The administration anticipates a great year in 2026, with tariffs playing a significant role in bringing investment [17][18]

Economic concerns don't seem to be having a large impact on holiday shopping this season. According to a new Visa analysis, it shows that retail sales increased by 4.2% year-over-year across all payment types. That includes cash and checks.And join us right now with a lot more on that report is Michael Brown, principal US economist for Visa. What was the biggest surprise for you. >> Was just the resilience of consumers.uh as you pointed out, we have seen sort of soft much softer consumer uh sentiment and an ...

Oracle's co-founder Larry Ellison is going to personally now guarantee more than $40 billion for his son's company in its effort to buy Warner Brothers Discovery for where things could go from here in the saga. Want to bring in David Joyce. He's Seapport Research Partners senior media equity analyst.This news broke on our air yesterday. We talked to Jerry Cardell about it all. Uh David, when you start to think through what happens next, we did hear the Warner Brothers Discoveries Board is going to take a lo ...

Joining us now, Sylvia Jablonsky, chief investment officer of defines uh ETFs. Do do we want a good GDP number or what is a good GDP number. Do you think that wouldn't be too hot, not too cold.[snorts] >> Good morning, Joe. I Well, I think if if we come in line with expectations, if we get above that, you know, 3.3%, I think the market expects lower than the last 3.8% read, but I think if we get, you know, somewhere in that range, that would be a positive result for the markets. I think, you know, overall. ...

already be a >> WELCOME BACK TO SQUAWK BOX. IT'S BEEN A TOUGH YEAR THIS YEAR, TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH ALL THE INCREMENTAL ADVANCES IN AI. STEVE KOVAC JOINS US NOW WITH WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2026, GIVEN HOW BUSY AND CRAZY THIS PAST YEAR HAS BEEN.STEVE. >> YEAH, ANDREW. AND LOOK, THERE'S THIS BUBBLING TREND IN THE AI MODEL RACE I'VE BEEN KIND OF CLOCKING ALL YEAR LONG.WE TALKED ABOUT THAT RACE BETWEEN THESE MODELS. YOU KNOW THEY DO VIDEO OR IMAGE GENERATION. SOME ARE BETTER AT CODING THAN OTHERS OR WRITING THAN OT ...

in three, two, one. >> Right. America's largest bourbon maker, Jim Beam, is pausing production at its flagship facility in Kentucky.The distiller is owned uh by Japan Santoi said the pause will begin on January 1st and last the entire year. The facility produces about a third of the company's annual output and bourbon sales have rapidly declined this year uh after more than 20 years of expansion uh in the US. Uh the slump is due in part to changing consumer behavior.A recent Gallup poll found that 54% of Am ...