So this has come up a couple of times today, but to be clear, do you believe that we're experiencing a positive productivity shock whether from AI or policy factors or whatever. Uh and how much of that is how much is that driving the higher GDP projection in the SCP. >> So yeah, I mean it uh [clears throat] I never thought I would see a time when we had, you know, five, six years of 2% productivity growth.This is this is higher, you know, this is definitely higher and it was it was before before it could be ...

Yeah, back to your private credit question, there's a similar type of anxiety about the data center build and and capex and I I again I don't really see it. So if you zoom out and you look at the demand for data and the demand for data centers, it makes perfect sense just given the digitization of everything and we are years away from the demand overwhelming supply. When we think about this business, you can just look at the large hyperscalers alone and you have $300 billion dollars of capex demand this yea ...

to follow up on your comments about job growth. Why is it so much worse than the official data is suggesting. >> Oh, well, we just we know I think it's it's um this is I don't think this is particularly controversial.There's a it's very difficult to to estimate job growth in real time. They don't count everybody. They have a survey and there's been something of a systematic overcount.And so we we expected and they correct it twice a year. So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would b ...

uh tenyear rates have are 50 [clears throat] basis points higher than when you started cutting back in September of 2024 and the yield curve basically has been steepening. Uh why do you think that continuing to cut now especially in the absence of data is going to bring down the yield on the thing that will move the economy the most. >> So we're looking at the real economy and focusing on that.And you have you've got when the when the long bonds move around, you've got to look at why they're moving around. ...

This is now the third time that you've cut this year and inflation is around 3%. So is the message that you're sort of trying to send with that that you're okay with where inflation is for now as long as people understand that at some point you still want to get back to 2% because inflation is relatively stable where it is. >> Everyone should understand and the surveys show that they do that we're committed to 2% inflation and we will deliver 2% inflation.But it's a complicated, unusual, difficult situation ...

Inflation & Tariffs - Tariff price increases are expected to fully pass through, with inflation from goods peaking around the first quarter of next year [2][3] - Assuming no new tariff announcements, inflation from goods should decrease in the back half of next year [3] - The impact of individual tariffs can take quite a while to fully materialize due to shipping and other factors [2] - The expected peak inflation increase from tariffs is estimated to be a couple of tenths of a percentage point or less [3] - The full effect of announced tariffs is estimated to take about nine months [3] Monetary Policy & Leadership - The speaker states that discussions about a new Fed chairman do not hinder their current job or change their thinking [4]

This is the last post FOMC press conference uh before an important Supreme Court uh hearing next month. Can you talk about how you're hoping the Supreme Court will rule and uh I'm just curious why the Fed's been so reticent on such a pivotal matter. >> It's not something I I want to address here, Andrew.Um you know, we're not uh we're not legal commentators. It's it's before the courts and uh we think our we we don't think that we help matters by trying to engage as a as a as a as a public discussion of tha ...

Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Market & Economics - Small modular nuclear reactors (SMR) have captured market interest, but are considered expensive power [1] - Hyperscalers are interested in SMRs due to zero-carbon goals, not necessarily economic viability [1] - SMRs are expected to be more expensive than unabated gas [2] - The US administration is focused on building a nuclear industry [2] Nuclear Project Advancement - TVA received a $400 million grant to advance their Clinch River project [3] - Expects approval for commissioning of its first US project next year [3] Gas vs Nuclear - Gas will constitute the majority of incremental capacity due to its operating parameters [3] - The US has very inexpensive gas resources [4] - Technology should be applied where resources are most economically competitive [4]

A lot of people interpreted your comments at the October meeting that you know when there's a foggy [clears throat] situation we slow down to mean that you know there wouldn't be a cut now there'd be a cut in January instead. So it'd be good to get a sense of why did the committee decide to move today rather than to move in January instead. Thank you.>> Right. So in October I said um that there was no certainty of moving and that was uh that was indeed correct. I said it's possible you could think about it ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The decision to cut was divided, with two official dissents and soft dissents from four others, indicating internal disagreement on the appropriate policy path [1] - The FOMC generally agrees that inflation is too high and the labor market has softened, but they differ on how to weigh these risks and what their forecasts indicate [2][3] - The committee believes it is well-positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves, especially considering the effects of the previous 75 basis points cut are still unfolding [5] - The committee made a decision with nine out of 12 supporting it, showing fairly broad support [4] Data Assessment - The committee will need to carefully assess household survey data, as data collection in October and half of November may have been distorted due to technical reasons [6][7] - The committee expects to receive a lot of December data by the January meeting, but will scrutinize CPI and household survey data for potential distortions [7][8] Internal Discussions and Communication - The discussions within the FOMC are considered thoughtful and respectful, even with strong views and disagreements [3][9] - The dissents are not seen as counterproductive, but rather as a reflection of the complicated economic situation [8][9] - Many outside analysts agree that a case can be made for either side, highlighting the challenging nature of the current economic environment [9] Economic Outlook and Challenges - A large number of participants agree that risks are to the upside for both unemployment and inflation, creating a challenging situation for monetary policy [10] - The committee faces the challenge of balancing competing risks with a single policy tool, making decisions about the pace and size of moves [10][11]