Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Hershey's stock price is attributed to rising cocoa prices, which have increased by approximately 20% over the past month, impacting costs and margins for the company. However, this situation presents a long-term investment opportunity as the market dynamics are expected to stabilize [3][6]. Company Overview - Hershey's current stock price is $177.97, with a 52-week range between $140.13 and $208.03. The company has a dividend yield of 3.08% and a P/E ratio of 23.63 [2]. - Hershey's market capitalization stands at $35.7 billion, with a gross profit margin of 40.1% and a net income margin of 13.5%, despite the pressures from rising cocoa prices [6]. Financial Metrics - The average net income margin for Hershey is around 17%, indicating potential for recovery as cocoa prices normalize [6]. - The return on invested capital (ROIC) for Hershey is 19.3%, which is above average for U.S. companies, suggesting strong future compounding value for investors [8]. Stock Forecast - Analysts have set a 12-month stock price forecast for Hershey at $168.83, indicating a potential downside of 5.13% from the current price. However, some analysts have provided higher price targets, with Barclays suggesting $190 and DA Davidson valuing it at $188, indicating possible upside [10][11]. - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in Hershey, with Vanguard Group raising its stake by 1.1% to $3.1 billion and Charles Schwab Investment Management increasing its stake by 2.5% to $849.1 million, reflecting growing confidence in the stock [12][13].

Under Evo Morales’s presidency the Chapare, Bolivia’s cocoa kingdom, flourished. Now public money no longer flows to the region. Drug labs have more often been busted. And the mood could worsen still after an upcoming election https://t.co/4d9tcjQWYR ...

Just get us up to speed and give us some context behind the latest round of of civil unrest in Ivory Coast. Alright, Jomana, we have been watching quite closely at the Ivory Coast because they do have elections later this year. And what's really come to a head over the past few days is we did hear from President Alassane Ouattara suggesting or telling the public that he does plan to seek a fourth term.Now, under Ivorian law, presidents are technically only supposed to be in office for two terms. And so you ...

Mars is tapping gene-editing technology that could speed up the development of hardier cocoa plants — part of the company’s efforts to ensure continued supplies of the crucial crop https://t.co/mi5vUgAVnu ...

Ghana raises the amount it pays farmers for their cocoa by 4.2% as the local currency’s appreciation limits the scope for a bigger increase https://t.co/uLeqMjE2Je ...

Much of West Africa, home to the world’s top cocoa producers, is heading into another disappointing harvest https://t.co/tRrBRQcPOm ...

Market Trends - Rising cocoa prices are leading to shrinkflation at Hershey's [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global commodities market**, with a focus on **oil**, **natural gas**, **copper**, and **cocoa** markets. Core Insights and Arguments Oil Market - President Trump has issued a 50-day ultimatum to Russia regarding oil exports, threatening 100% secondary tariffs if no deal is reached, which could significantly impact economic growth and oil demand [6] - Oil consumption is on the rise due to improved travel demand and trade activities, with global liquid stocks increasing by 191 million barrels year-to-date through July 11 [7] - The US oil rig count has decreased by two units, primarily in Delaware, Texas, leading to a modest downward revision of US supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [13] Natural Gas - Natural gas remains strategically important to Russia, which is exploring alternative markets due to the EU's plan to phase out Russian gas [9] - The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is under discussion as a potential route for Russian gas to China, but concerns over pricing and supply concentration remain [9] Copper Market - A proposed 50% tariff on copper imports could lead to a 4% reduction in refined copper demand growth in the US next year, although this represents only a 0.2% impact on global demand [9] - The US exports 540-580 thousand metric tons of copper contained in scrap annually, which could help reduce import dependence on copper cathode [9] - The US has significant copper project potential, but new supply responses are not expected until the next decade due to long lead times [9] Cocoa Market - The cocoa market has experienced a sharp decline in prices, attributed to demand-side destruction, but prices are expected to remain structurally higher due to multi-season availability constraints [3][11] - The medium-term price forecast for cocoa is set at $6,000 per tonne as the market seeks balance, likely by 2025/26 [11] Additional Important Insights - The global commodity market open interest has rebounded by 2.2% week-over-week, with energy leading the charge, although base metals have seen outflows [12] - The overall economic outlook for the second half of 2025 is expected to be stagflationary, with sluggish growth anticipated [12] - The cocoa market's long-term structural price increase is supported by ongoing supply constraints despite short-term demand destruction [3][11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the global commodities market and the implications for various sectors.

Market Trends - Cocoa prices are rising from an 8-month low as traders assess supply and demand signals [1]

Prices for cocoa on the global market have nearly tripled since 2023, but farmers in Ivory Coast have found it hard to cash in. The cocoa trade in the country is controlled by government-run regulator Conseil du Café-Cacao, which sets prices. The current price is about a third of the global market price, which has created a powerful incentive to smuggle crops into neighboring countries that don’t have the same central pricing. Bloomberg's Ondiro Oganga reports. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Mark ...