The prices of agricultural commodities in the grain/oilseed, soft, and animal protein sectors posted losses in September, except for October lean hog futures, which gained 5.08%.COMEX copper futures, the volatile red metal, recovered in September, after wild price swings over the past months due to tariffs. The futures contract rose 5.79% in September.Gold reached a new record high of nearly $3,900 per ounce, posted its eighth consecutive record quarterly peak, and rose convincingly above its inflation-adju ...

Ivory Coast may raise cocoa farmgate prices above Ghana’s to boost warehouse arrivals for the Oct. 1 season https://t.co/8Bk7bIWtMl ...

Ghana’s cocoa deliveries to warehouses in August more than quadrupled from the same period last year as an accelerated start to the season provided early cash to farmers, adding to the uptick in supply that’s cooling global prices https://t.co/pyefEzOtUN ...

Hedge funds finally turn bearish on London cocoa prices, as a historic crunch eases further https://t.co/EIIosIIhBp ...

Core Viewpoint - Cocoa prices are experiencing mixed trends due to varying supply and demand dynamics, influenced by weather conditions in West Africa and inventory levels in the U.S. [2][4] Supply Factors - Recent rain in West Africa has eased dry conditions, potentially boosting cocoa output, while NY cocoa prices rose as U.S. port inventories fell to a 4.5-month low of 2,048,998 bags [2] - The Ivory Coast's cocoa exports have slowed, with shipments at 1.82 million metric tons (MMT) for the marketing year, a 5.8% increase from last year but down from a larger 35% increase seen in December [4] - Quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, attributed to late rain, are supporting prices, with the average estimate for this year's mid-crop at 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year's 440,000 MT [8] - Nigeria's cocoa production is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year to 305,000 MT for the 2025/26 crop year, which may support cocoa prices [9] Demand Factors - Weak global cocoa demand is negatively impacting prices, with European cocoa grindings down 7.2% year-on-year and Asian grindings down 16.3% year-on-year, marking the smallest Q2 in eight years [10] - Chocolate maker Lindt & Sprüngli AG lowered its margin guidance due to a larger-than-expected decline in first-half chocolate sales, while Barry Callebaut AG also reduced its sales volume guidance, projecting a decline in full-year sales volume [5] Market Outlook - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, while forecasting a global surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, marking the first surplus in four years [12] - Ghana's cocoa production is expected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year to 650,000 MT for the 2025/26 crop year, which may exert downward pressure on cocoa prices [11]

Group 1 - Coffee futures prices are nearing an all-time high due to U.S. tariffs and dry weather in Brazil, impacting production [1][6] - Arabica coffee futures reached a session high of $4.24 per pound, a seven-month peak, before closing down 2% at $4.0935 per pound [2][3] - The price of arabica coffee has surged approximately 50% since the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports at the end of July [3][4] Group 2 - Roasted coffee prices in U.S. grocery stores increased by 20.9% in August compared to the previous year, contributing to high food prices [3] - The U.S. coffee industry has been slow to hedge against price fluctuations due to the tariff situation, leading to increased buying from speculative funds [4][5] - Concerns about Brazil's dry weather are affecting the supply chain, with rains needed to support the flowering phase of coffee trees [6]

Cocoa Market Overview - Cocoa prices experienced a significant rally, with December ICE NY cocoa closing up 3.02% and London cocoa up 2.15%, reaching a 1.5-week high due to weather concerns in West Africa [1] - Heavy rainfall in the Ivory Coast has hindered farmers' access to cocoa fields, while dryness in Ghana and Nigeria has negatively impacted crop conditions [1][6] Supply and Inventory Dynamics - ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports have decreased to a 4.25-month low of 2,092,823 bags, supporting higher cocoa prices [3] - Cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast have shown a slower pace, with shipments totaling 1.82 million metric tons (MMT) this marketing year, reflecting a 5.8% increase from last year but a decline from a previous 35% increase [3] Quality and Production Concerns - Quality issues regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa are contributing to price support, with an estimated mid-crop of 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year's 440,000 MT [7] - Nigeria's cocoa production is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year to 305,000 MT for the 2025/26 crop year, which may also support cocoa prices [8] Demand Trends - Weak global cocoa demand has been a bearish factor, with European cocoa grindings falling 7.2% year-on-year and Asian grindings down 16.3% year-on-year, marking the smallest Q2 amount in eight years [9] - In contrast, Ghana's cocoa production is expected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year to 650,000 MT, which could exert downward pressure on cocoa prices [10] Future Projections - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its global cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, while forecasting a surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25 [11]

Group 1: Cocoa Price Movements - Cocoa prices are experiencing a significant increase, with December ICE NY cocoa up by 2.88% and London cocoa up by 2.06% [1][2] - NY cocoa has reached a 1.5-week high due to weather concerns in West Africa, particularly heavy rain in the Ivory Coast affecting cocoa field access [2][4] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Factors - Tighter cocoa inventories are supporting price increases, with ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports falling to a 4.25-month low of 2,092,823 bags [4] - The pace of cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast has slowed, with shipments totaling 1.82 million metric tons (MMT) this marketing year, reflecting a 5.8% increase from last year but a decrease from a previous 35% increase [4] Group 3: Demand and Quality Concerns - Weak global cocoa demand has negatively impacted prices, with European cocoa grindings down by 7.2% year-on-year and Asian grindings down by 16.3% year-on-year [10] - Quality issues with the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, attributed to late rain, are supporting prices, with the average estimate for this year's mid-crop at 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year [8] Group 4: Production Outlook - Optimism regarding this year's cocoa crop harvest in West Africa is present, with a cocoa pod count reported to be 7% above the five-year average [6] - Ghana's cocoa production is projected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year for the 2025/26 crop year, which may exert downward pressure on cocoa prices [11] Group 5: Global Cocoa Deficit and Future Projections - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, with production down by 13.1% year-on-year [12] - ICCO forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, marking the first surplus in four years, with production expected to rise by 7.8% year-on-year [12]

Company Overview - Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is valued at a market cap of $29.6 billion and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, being one of the world's largest agricultural processors and nutrition providers [1] - The company operates a global network of crop procurement, storage, transportation, and processing facilities, connecting farmers with end-users [2] Stock Performance - ADM shares have declined 4.4% from their 52-week high of $64.38, reached on August 25, but have increased 24% over the past three months, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 6.7% rise during the same period [3] - Year-to-date, ADM stock is down 21.9%, underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 7.7% gain, but has risen 3.3% over the past 52 weeks compared to the Dow's 11.5% return [4] Financial Performance - In the second quarter, ADM reported a revenue of $21.2 billion, a 5% year-over-year decline, and adjusted EPS of $0.93, down 10% year-over-year, although both figures exceeded analysts' estimates [5] - The company faced challenges in Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions due to lower volumes and weaker margins, while Nutrition showed modest growth, particularly in Animal Nutrition [5] - Management has adjusted the full-year EPS guidance to around $4.00, focusing on cost savings, operational efficiencies, and portfolio simplification [5]

Group 1: Cocoa Price Movements - Cocoa prices closed lower on Friday, with December ICE NY cocoa down 1.43% and December ICE London cocoa down 1.73% [1][2] - The decline in cocoa prices was influenced by a stronger dollar, leading to long liquidation in cocoa futures [2] - Cocoa prices had previously reached one-week highs due to weather concerns in West Africa, including heavy rain in the Ivory Coast and dryness in Ghana and Nigeria [2][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Tighter cocoa inventories are supportive for prices, with ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports falling to a 4.25-month low of 2,092,823 bags [4] - The Ivory Coast's cocoa exports showed a 5.8% increase year-on-year, but this was a slowdown compared to a previous 35% increase [4] - Weak global cocoa demand has negatively impacted prices, with significant declines in cocoa grindings reported in Europe, Asia, and North America [10] Group 3: Crop Conditions and Quality - Optimism about this year's cocoa crop harvest in West Africa is present, with a cocoa pod count reported to be 7% above the five-year average [6] - Quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa are supportive of prices, with a projected decline of 9% in this year's mid-crop compared to last year [8] - Ghana's projected cocoa production for 2025/26 is expected to increase by 8.3%, which may exert bearish pressure on cocoa prices [11] Group 4: Global Cocoa Deficit and Future Projections - The International Cocoa Organization revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years [12] - A forecasted global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25 marks the first surplus in four years, with production expected to rise by 7.8% year-on-year [12]