US stocks wavered early Wednesday as Wall Street prepared to wrap up an eventful, roller-coaster trading year with sizable gains. The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) all lost around 0.1%. After three straight losing sessions that have dimmed hopes for a "Santa Claus rally," Wall Street is nevertheless ready to celebrate its gains in 2025. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up over 17% this year, on track for its sixth year of 15 ...

US stocks sputtered Wednesday as Wall Street prepared to wrap up an eventful, roller-coaster trading year with sizable gains. The blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) all lost around 0.4%, with the major indexes eyeing their fourth consecutive day of losses. Those losses have dimmed hopes for a so-called "Santa Claus rally." But at least on Wednesday, Wall Street is ready to celebrate its gains in 2025. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC ...

Investors trading commodities, such as oil, have been in high demand.Jeri Clausing/AP Hedge funds that trade commodities struggled in 2025. Big-name managers with exposure to energy or agriculture trades, such as Citadel, trailed peers. However, hedge funds are still flocking to the space, seeking to diversify from stock and fixed-income trades. All strategies mix good days and bumper years with bad days and market-lagging returns. For commodities traders in 2025, it was more of the latter. Conf ...

Cocoa rebounded from the lowest in almost two weeks in New York, amid expectations of looming index-related buying and lingering uncertainty over supplies https://t.co/xcSBkKO0G4 ...

Cocoa prices jumped a lot last year but are now dropping fast. Still, chocolate prices in stores are not going down anytime soon. Last year, cocoa futures almost tripled, forcing chocolate makers to raise prices. They are still using cocoa bought at those high prices. Some chocolate makers even changed their recipes to cut costs. These changes are not easy to reverse, so prices remain high. Experts say cheaper cocoa may only reach stores in the second half of next year, and it is not guaranteed. Jonathan P ...

Cocoa prices have dropped from their 2024 peak — but don't expect chocolate bargains this holiday season.When will prices finally fall? @harrypblack explains https://t.co/GdxGuxzglP https://t.co/THR8r8UzoW ...

Global Markets Strategy December 15th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{oW73U7lx7NxxSQt2Lq7YJ5RtKCP_A-B5IJyEVsEYO20btSQwg-epq6yo4g4tdwvSgTdmAchc_FhZyL10}]} Overall summary US Rates Hawkish developments across DM central banks and the end of the Fed's "insurance cut" ...

Core Insights - Cocoa futures nearly tripled last year, leading to significant cost increases for manufacturers, who subsequently raised chocolate prices [1][4][12] - The chocolate industry is currently facing high cocoa prices, with expectations for cheaper cocoa to only impact retail prices in the second half of next year [1][9][10] Industry Impact - The surge in cocoa prices has caused distress across the industry, affecting both large packaged food companies and small chocolatiers, with some struggling for survival [4][6] - Lambertz, a historic German confectioner, reported an additional €150 million ($176 million) in annual costs due to high cocoa prices, equating to one-fifth of last year's revenue [6][7] - Many producers are passing costs onto consumers while accepting a loss in sales volume, indicating a challenging market environment [7][10] Market Dynamics - Cocoa prices peaked at nearly $13,000 per ton last year but have since dropped by about 50%, marking the steepest annual decline since 1960 [1][9] - Despite recent price drops, major chocolate manufacturers remain cautious about signaling changes due to ongoing market volatility [9][10] - Analysts have reduced their cocoa surplus expectations, contributing to the current price stabilization around $6,000 per ton [9][10] Supply Chain Challenges - West African cocoa supply remains unstable, with smallholder farmers facing chronic underfunding and lack of resources to adapt to climate change [10] - Barry Callebaut AG's CEO highlighted the long-term structural challenges in cocoa farming, emphasizing the need for investment [10] Product Adjustments - In response to high cocoa prices, companies are altering recipes, such as reducing cocoa content or portion sizes, which may become permanent changes [12][14] - Examples include Milka chocolate bars becoming 10% lighter while prices increased by about 25%, and some UK chocolate bars no longer qualifying as "chocolate" due to ingredient changes [12][14]

Food Price Trends - The analysis suggests food prices will not remain as high as in 2025 due to the anticipated easing of certain commodity prices and tariff dynamics [1][2][3] - Companies like General Mills and PepsiCo are already lowering prices, raising the question of whether these price reductions will be sustainable [5] - The unwinding of COVID-era inflation is contributing to savings for consumers on grocery items [6] Consumer Behavior & Economic Impact - The report highlights a "K-shaped" economy, emphasizing the impact of pricing on low-income consumers' consumption of daily use consumer staples [7][8] - High-income consumers' consumption of daily use categories is less sensitive to economic conditions compared to low-income consumers [8] - Volume drag from low-income consumers will be a key indicator in 2026 [8][9] Top Picks & Investment Opportunities - Top picks for the next year include Coke, Monster, and Vitita Cocoa (coconut water) [9] - Vitita Cocoa benefits from structural growth as a workout and recovery drink, and from tariff exemptions [9][10] Company Performance - Lamb Weston's margin improvement and outlook, particularly in international markets, have been disappointing [12] - Lamb Weston's sales were in line with expectations, but margin improvement was the key issue [12][13]

Barry Callebaut AG (BYCBF) (BRRLY) is reportedly evaluating a separation of its global cocoa division from its core chocolate business, primarily to reduce exposure to extreme cocoa price volatility and sharpen focus on higher-margin chocolate activities. Sources indicated that the ...