Core Viewpoint - Barry Callebaut has appointed Hein Schumacher as the new CEO, succeeding Peter Feld, amid a transformation program aimed at enhancing the company's agility and customer focus [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Leadership Transition - Hein Schumacher, former CEO of Unilever and FrieslandCampina, has been appointed as the new CEO of Barry Callebaut [1][2]. - Peter Feld, the outgoing CEO, will leave the company next week to pursue other career opportunities after leading the company since 2023 [2][4]. - The chairman, Patrick De Maeseneire, emphasized the timing of the CEO transition coinciding with the nearing completion of the BC Next Level transformation program [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Barry Callebaut reported an 8.9% increase in revenue for the first quarter of its financial year, reaching SFr3.67 billion ($4.64 billion), despite a nearly 10% decline in volumes [5]. - In the last full financial year, revenue surged by 42.4% to SFr14.79 billion, driven by price increases to offset high cocoa bean costs, although volumes decreased by 6.8% [6]. Group 3: Market Context - The chocolate confectionery market is reportedly declining, as indicated by Nielsen figures, which may impact future sales volumes for Barry Callebaut [5]. - De Maeseneire has denied any plans to separate the cocoa division from the rest of the business, countering rumors regarding the company's strategic direction [4]. Group 4: Leadership Qualities - De Maeseneire praised Schumacher as a seasoned leader with a strong background in food and B2B/B2C sectors, highlighting his proven track record in creating shareholder value [7]. - Schumacher is expected to lead Barry Callebaut into a new phase focused on customer engagement and financial strength, leveraging the company's integrated cocoa and chocolate business model [7].

Core Insights - Barry Callebaut has appointed Hein Schumacher, the former CEO of Unilever, as its new CEO amid weaker-than-expected financial results [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - The appointment of Hein Schumacher is a strategic move for Barry Callebaut, indicating a shift in leadership to navigate current challenges [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported financial results that fell short of expectations, highlighting potential operational or market challenges [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Uganda's economic growth remained robust in FY25, with real GDP growth accelerating to 6.3 percent, driven by strong domestic demand and a recovery in household consumption [29][30] - The external position improved, with a narrowing current account deficit from 7.9 percent of GDP in FY24 to 6.4 percent in FY25, supported by rising export receipts, particularly from coffee and gold [30][31] - Fiscal pressures increased, with the overall fiscal deficit widening to 6.1 percent of GDP in FY25, primarily due to a 23 percent rise in government spending [31][34] - The medium-term outlook is positive, with growth expected to remain broad-based and accelerate as oil production commences, projected to start in FY27 [33][34] - Agro-industrialization is central to Uganda's development strategy, offering significant potential for job creation and economic transformation [36][37] Summary by Sections Part 1: State of the Ugandan Economy - Recent Economic Developments - Uganda's economy experienced broad-based growth in FY25, with total consumption rising by 10.3 percent and a significant increase in government consumption [29][53] - Agricultural value-added grew by 6.6 percent, contributing 24 percent to the GDP increase, supported by favorable rainfall conditions [55] - The external position strengthened, with export receipts surging and foreign exchange reserves rising to cover three months of imports [30][31] - Economic Outlook, Risks and Development Priorities - Growth is expected to remain robust in FY26 and FY27, with fiscal and external deficits projected to improve gradually as oil revenues begin to accrue [33][34] - Risks to the outlook include potential fiscal slippages, delays in oil sector development, and climate shocks affecting agricultural productivity [34] Part 2: Cultivating Prosperity Through Agro-Industrialization - Current Context for Cultivating Future Prosperity - Uganda has significant untapped agro-industrialization potential due to its abundant natural resources and favorable climate [37] - However, agricultural productivity remains low, with challenges such as weak foundations in primary production and limited access to finance and infrastructure [38] - Recommendations for Agro-Industrial Transformation - Addressing challenges requires coordinated investments and reforms to strengthen agricultural foundations, improve infrastructure, and mobilize private sector investments [39][41] - The report emphasizes the need for strategic partnerships and sustained political commitment to achieve agro-industrialization goals [41]

Summary of Key Points from the Commodity Outlook Update Industry Overview - The report provides an update on the outlook for energy, metals, bulks, and agricultural commodities for 2026, with a focus on oil, precious metals, aluminium, and EUAs [1] Oil Market Insights - Oil prices are expected to rally to around $70/bbl due to rising geopolitical risks related to Iran and Russia/Ukraine, alongside export disruptions from Kazakhstan, Libya, and Algeria [2] - A moderation in geopolitical risks is anticipated by the second half of 2026, with potential price pressures from a fundamental surplus and political influences ahead of the November 2026 US mid-term elections [2] Precious Metals Forecast - Silver is projected to outperform gold, with expected prices of $100/oz for silver and $5,000/oz for gold [3] - The report suggests that these price levels will provide opportunities for producers and central banks to hedge against price declines [3] Aluminium and Base Metals Outlook - Aluminium is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with a near-term price target of $3,400/t, supported by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [21] - Copper prices are forecasted to reach $14,000/t in the near term, driven by market momentum and demand expectations [25] - Nickel prices are projected to rise to $20,000/t in the short term but are expected to retreat to $16,000/t over the next 6-12 months due to supply growth and market surplus [28] Natural Gas and LNG - The report anticipates a global LNG oversupply starting in 2027, with average prices projected at $9.5/MMBtu for JKM LNG and $8.8/MMBtu for TTF in 2026 [37] - US natural gas prices may decline further due to strong production, but winter demand remains a factor [37] Agricultural Commodities - Coffee prices are expected to decline to $3.40/lb in 3 months and $3/lb in 12 months due to increasing inventories and favorable crop conditions in Brazil and Vietnam [46] EUAs and Carbon Pricing - EUAs are projected to reach €95/t as policymakers avoid direct intervention in the EU ETS, focusing on support for energy-intensive industries [44] - The EU Commission has expanded the list of eligible sectors for indirect cost compensation, reinforcing the bullish outlook for EUA prices [45] Additional Insights - The report highlights the potential for further inflows into base metals driven by macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment [19] - There is a cautionary note regarding the sustainability of current price levels beyond the first quarter of 2026, with expectations of profit-taking and market corrections [13][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts from the commodity outlook update, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends and market dynamics across various sectors.

Market Overview - US stocks experienced fluctuations as Wall Street concluded a volatile trading year with significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all losing around 0.1% in early trading [1][6] - The S&P 500 is up over 17% for the year, marking its sixth year of 15%-plus gains in the last seven years, while the Nasdaq Composite has risen over 20% and the Dow is up over 13% [2] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 fell to 199,000 from a revised 215,000, surprising economists who had predicted an increase to 218,000 [7][8] - Continuing claims also decreased to 1.86 million from 1.91 million, contrary to expectations of a smaller decline to 1.90 million [9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy remains a focal point, with 85% of bets indicating that rates will remain steady in January [5][10] - The central bank's decision-making process is influenced by labor market conditions rather than inflation data, as indicated by the close call in the December meeting [10] Commodity Market - Sugar prices are on track for their largest annual decline since 2017, dropping approximately 21% due to oversupply [12] - Other agricultural commodities like cocoa and rice have also seen significant price drops, with futures contracts falling by 48% and 32% respectively [14] Currency Performance - The US dollar is set to finish its weakest year since 2017, declining over 9% year-to-date, influenced by economic concerns and a dovish Federal Reserve [15] - In contrast, the euro and pound have gained 13% and 7% respectively, marking their largest yearly gains in eight years [16]

Stock Market Overview - US stocks experienced a decline on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all losing around 0.4%, marking their fourth consecutive day of losses [1] - Despite the recent losses, the S&P 500 is up over 17% for the year, the Nasdaq Composite has risen over 20%, and the Dow is up over 13%, indicating a strong performance throughout 2025 [2][3] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 27 fell to 199,000, down from a revised 215,000, surprising economists who had predicted an increase [16][18] - Continuing claims also decreased to 1.86 million from 1.91 million, further indicating a stronger labor market than expected [18][20] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices are on track for their largest annual loss since the pandemic began, with Brent crude down approximately 17% and WTI crude down about 18% year-to-date [9][10] - OPEC increased monthly production by 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December, contributing to the oversupply in the market [10] - The International Energy Agency forecasts an oversupply of 3.8 million barrels per day for 2026, with price targets for Brent crude set in the $50s, potentially dropping into the $30s or $40s if production strategies do not change [11] Agricultural Commodities - Sugar prices are expected to see their largest annual decline since 2017, dropping around 21% due to high global production levels [22] - Other agricultural commodities like cocoa, potatoes, and rice have also experienced significant price declines, with cocoa futures down 48% and rice down 32% [24] Currency Market - The US dollar is set to finish its weakest year since 2017, dropping over 9% year-to-date, influenced by President Trump's tariff agenda and a dovish Federal Reserve outlook [25] - In contrast, the euro and pound have gained 13% and 7% respectively, marking their largest yearly gains in eight years [26]

Core Insights - Commodity traders faced significant challenges in 2025, trailing behind most other asset classes with an average hedge fund return of only 2.2% compared to the overall industry average of 10.7% [3] - The volatility in oil prices due to Middle East conflicts and fluctuating crop prices from tariff policies has contributed to the struggles in the commodities market [2][3] - Despite the difficulties, there is a growing interest in commodities trading as firms seek diversification from traditional asset classes [9] Industry Trends - The demand for commodities trading is increasing, with firms like Citadel and Millennium continuing to expand their operations in this area despite recent underperformance [4][5] - The shift towards physical commodities is seen as a major diversification strategy for 2026, as larger firms and startups look for alpha that quantitative approaches cannot easily access [6][7] - Notable hedge fund managers, including Steve Cohen of Point72, are considering entering the commodities market, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [8]

Cocoa rebounded from the lowest in almost two weeks in New York, amid expectations of looming index-related buying and lingering uncertainty over supplies https://t.co/xcSBkKO0G4 ...

Core Insights - Cocoa prices surged last year but are now declining rapidly, yet chocolate prices in stores are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future due to previous high cocoa purchases and recipe changes by manufacturers [1][3][14] Cocoa Market Dynamics - Cocoa futures reached nearly $13,000 per ton last year due to crop damage from diseases and adverse weather in major producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for over half of global cocoa supply [3][10] - This year, cocoa prices have dropped by approximately 50% to around $6,000 per ton due to improved harvests, reduced demand, and diminished concerns about shortages [3][13] Impact on Chocolate Manufacturers - Many chocolate companies, including Lambertz, have incurred significant costs from purchasing cocoa at elevated prices, with Lambertz reporting an additional €150 million ($176 million) in costs, representing about 20% of its revenue last year [4][16] - Chocolate makers are cautious about adjusting retail prices due to ongoing market instability, with some experts suggesting that relief in pricing may not be seen until 2026 [5][16] Recipe Adjustments - To manage costs, chocolate manufacturers are altering recipes by reducing cocoa content or producing smaller bars, leading to some products no longer being classified as "chocolate" [9][13] - These changes are difficult to reverse, indicating that high retail prices are likely to persist despite falling cocoa prices [9][14] Supply Chain Challenges - Cocoa farming in West Africa faces long-term structural challenges, including a lack of investment, inadequate farming tools, and disease-resistant plants, which continue to threaten supply stability [8][11] - Governments in Ghana and Ivory Coast are now supporting farmers with better pricing and farming practices, which has improved farmer incomes and allowed for better agricultural inputs [12][16]

Cocoa prices have dropped from their 2024 peak — but don't expect chocolate bargains this holiday season.When will prices finally fall? @harrypblack explains https://t.co/GdxGuxzglP https://t.co/THR8r8UzoW ...