Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a data blackout affecting vital crop production estimates and market reports, crucial for grain and soybean trading [1][2][3] - Farmers are facing challenges due to low grain prices and uncertainties regarding crop damage from adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The lack of USDA reports, including the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), has left traders and farmers without essential information for pricing and hedging commodities [4][6] Industry Impact - The disruption in data flow has created a "flying blind" market environment, making it difficult for stakeholders to make informed decisions [4][7] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also suspended the release of weekly data on speculators' positions, further complicating market dynamics [5] - Traders are resorting to alternative methods, such as satellite imagery and technical pricing analysis, to gauge market conditions, leading to a lack of transparency [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of financial planning as the year ends, providing practical advice for individuals to manage their finances effectively in preparation for the new year [1][2]. Financial Management Strategies - Individuals are encouraged to track their expenses meticulously to identify areas for potential cuts, promoting a proactive approach to financial management [3]. - The concept of financial literacy is highlighted, with a survey indicating that 54% of people feel they have a fair understanding of personal finances, with higher familiarity among upper-income individuals [4]. Budgeting Techniques - The article suggests separating finances into distinct categories, such as maintaining an emergency fund separate from regular bills and discretionary spending [5]. - It advocates for aligning billing dates with personal pay schedules to ensure timely payments and better cash flow management [6]. Grocery Spending Tips - Rising grocery prices, particularly for beef and coffee, are noted, with recommendations for consumers to utilize existing pantry items before shopping to save money [7]. Holiday Spending Advice - The article advises setting boundaries during the holiday season to avoid overspending and the pressure to purchase gifts for everyone [8].

Core Insights - A 20-year-old secured a $100,000 loan to purchase cattle, raising concerns about the decision-making process behind such a loan [1][2] - The young borrower has experience in the cattle business, having worked alongside his father for 10 years, which adds context to the loan [2] - The loan was secured against a $100,000 certificate of deposit (CD), indicating a level of financial backing [3] Financial Analysis - The decision to borrow against the CD rather than using the funds directly for purchasing cattle was criticized, as loans typically carry higher interest rates than CDs [4] - The caller's confidence in the beef market's stability over the next two years was viewed as overly optimistic and compared to gambling, highlighting the unpredictability of commodity prices [4][5] - Ramsey emphasized the importance of understanding supply and demand dynamics in the cattle market, noting that an oversupply could lead to lower beef prices, while high demand with fewer cattle could increase prices [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. is not expected to become China's main supplier of soybeans, as China is currently seeking to fill its needs with U.S. soybeans until Brazil's next harvest [1] - The National Soybean Index reached its lowest monthly close at the end of September since August 2020, indicating ample supplies relative to demand [2] - The government shutdown has led to a lack of reporting from the USDA, creating uncertainty in the market and allowing China to potentially buy soybeans under the radar, similar to actions taken in 2018 [5][7] Market Trends - The agricultural markets are experiencing a quiet period, with livestock futures showing significant losses [4] - Basis is weak for both corn and soybeans due to increased supplies during harvest time, with producers selling soybeans while holding corn [8][12] - The cash cattle market is seeing pressure, with cutout values dropping significantly, indicating a potential shift in investor interest towards markets with a more bullish supply and demand outlook [16][18] External Factors - Gold prices are reaching record highs, driven by concerns over inflation and a growing lack of confidence in the U.S. economy, as central banks continue to buy gold as a safe haven [13][14] - The ongoing government shutdown is contributing to market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and trading behavior [15]

Financial Performance (9M25) - Net revenue reached R$870.5 million[13], a 57% increase compared to the previous year[26] - Adjusted EBITDA was R$195.3 million[13], with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22%[26] - Net income amounted to R$76.7 million[13], a significant turnaround from the previous year's net loss[26] Production and Sales (24/25 Harvest) - Soybean production is estimated at 251,788 tons[19], but projected to be 216,111 tons[19], a 14% decrease[19] - Corn production is estimated at 42,033 tons[19], and projected to be 47,527 tons[19], a 13% increase[19] - Cotton production is estimated at 31,170 tons[19], but projected to be 20,553 tons[19], a 34% decrease[19] Commodity and Input Prices - Soybean prices decreased by 2% from June 2024 to April 2025[15] - Corn prices increased by 31% from June 2024 to April 2025[15] - Cattle raising prices increased by 46% from June 2024 to April 2025[15] - The price of KCL fertilizer for the 25/26 harvest is projected at USD 635 per ton[17], a 24% increase compared to Mar-24[17] Hedging - 20% of the 24/25 soybean harvest and 22% of the 25/26 harvest are hedged for commodity prices[25] - 72% of the 24/25 corn harvest and 83% of the 25/26 harvest are hedged for commodity prices[25] - 39% of the 24/25 ethanol harvest is hedged for commodity prices[25] - 71% of the 24/25 cotton harvest is hedged for commodity prices and 47% is hedged for exchange rates[25] Indebtedness - Total indebtedness is R$884.98 million[36], a 30% increase compared to June 30, 2024[36] - Adjusted net debt is R$779.403 million[36], a 65% increase compared to June 30, 2024[36]

Company Overview - CRESUD has been investing in real assets for over 30 years[2] - The company manages 865,600 hectares through CRESUD, BrasilAgro & Subsidiaries, with 71% owned, 14% leased, and 15% under long-term concessions[11] - CRESUD's agribusiness strategy focuses on farming activity, farmland real estate, and agricultural commercial services[15] Farmland Portfolio and Production - The company's farmland portfolio has evolved since 1994, expanding from Argentina to the region[8] - The planted surface has increased at a CAGR of +10.3%[19] - Grain production in the region has increased at a CAGR of +14.8%[21] Farmland Real Estate - Farmland prices in Argentina have seen significant appreciation[28] - Farmland prices in Brazil have also seen significant appreciation[31] - CRESUD's stake in farmland real estate is 51.2%[34] Agricultural Commercial Services - The company complements traditional farming with services, trading, and AgTech[36] - Traded tons evolution & market share has increased over the years[39] - EBT Evolution reached USD 28.2 million in 2021-2022[41] Financial Performance and Capital Management - Agribusiness Adjusted EBITDA has evolved across farming, farmland sales, and services segments[50] - Stand-alone debt has decreased by -23.4% to USD 323 million in IIQ 25[53] - The company approved a dividend on October 28th, 2024, with a dividend yield of ~7%[58] - Shares repurchase programs were conducted from November to December 2024, with 4,522,623 ordinary shares repurchased for ARS 6,498 million (~USD 6.4 million), representing ~0.75% of Social Capital[60]