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Balaji· 2025-11-07 15:38
I understand this argument, but the counterargument is simply scale.Empirically, multi-ethnic ideological empires like Rome, the British Empire, Napoleon’s France, the Soviet Union, and the US defeated smaller monoethnic nation states.They defeated them militarily, culturally, economically, and ideologically. And then integrated them. Thereby setting the laws, including the laws of the marketplace.Of course, in each case, rapid imperial expansion may well have laid the seeds of future collapse. But the smal ...
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Balaji· 2025-11-07 15:22
When you go *too* far to the nationalist right, you limit your coalition to only those who are both right-of-center and citizens of your country.But only China has the scale to really do everything in one country. Everyone else needs allies.Eco Tradeoff (@EcoTradeoff):@balajis "doesn’t get the idea of diplomacy, of building coalitions, of sometimes just not having the votes ...total independence from needing to work with others. They don’t understand political capital."How, in the world, is that more of a c ...
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Balaji· 2025-11-07 09:54
If the far left’s failure mode is not understanding self-interest, the far right’s failure mode is not understanding other-interest.That is to say: we know the far left doesn’t viscerally get the idea of capitalism, of building products, of sometimes just not having the money to do something. The far left fantasy is of total independence from needing to work at all. They don’t understand economic scarcity.But the far right similarly doesn’t get the idea of diplomacy, of building coalitions, of sometimes jus ...
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Balaji· 2025-11-07 09:41
Communism shatters economic relations, but ultranationalism breaks diplomatic relations. ...
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Balaji· 2025-11-07 09:37
Economic Dependence - The West's living standards are entirely dependent upon continued absolute dominance [1] - This dominance is propped up by the issuance of the global reserve currency, namely the dollar [1] Zero-Sum Thinking - Interpreting the chart in a zero-sum way is mentioned [1] - It is argued that everyone's share can increase in absolute terms [1]
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Balaji· 2025-11-07 09:34
Macroeconomic Trends & Geopolitical Shifts - The period from 1950-1990 is identified as an atypical era of Westernization and centralization [1] - The global economy's center of mass is shifting back to Eurasia, leading to a decline in the West's relative strength [2] - The West's living standards are heavily reliant on its continued absolute dominance, supported by the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency [3] - A decline from the undisputed 1 position could contract the tax base for dollar inflation from 1-3 billion globally to approximately 300 million Americans, potentially causing a 60-90% drop and increasing inflation [4] - Market participants are observed selling Western bonds and investing in Chinese bonds, gold, internet stocks, and internet currencies [7] - The 20th-century Western economy is being superseded by China and the Internet [7] Sovereign Debt & Financial Instability - Issues are shared across the entire G7, with France and the UK potentially requiring IMF bailouts [6] - Soaring yields are observed across the US, France, UK, Italy, Germany, and Japan, while Chinese yields are falling [6] - Western governments are perceived as bankrupt [8]
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Balaji· 2025-11-07 09:13
If a car is headed downhill, and swerves left, and then right, and then further left, and further to the right, it doesn't actually arrest the descent. However, all the swerving may make the car crash faster.The G7 is like that car. It's the descending world. https://t.co/nAN6ntxgPGRay Dalio (@RayDalio):History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts2) It prints a lot of ne ...
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Balaji· 2025-11-07 09:00
RT Cory Levy (@cory)inspiring to see what @balajis has built at the Network School https://t.co/LsH6eqoGCr ...
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Balaji· 2025-11-04 12:48
Software Development & Problem Solving - Software development addresses problems created by software itself [1] - Fixing bugs on GitHub exemplifies using software to solve software-related issues [1] Engineering & Crisis Management - The idea that engineering cannot solve crises it creates is considered flawed [1]
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Balaji· 2025-11-04 12:14
Climate Change & Growth - The report suggests that "degrowth" was not the solution, but rather exponential growth is needed [1] - RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute) provides a source of climate hope [1] - The report is linked to a team at RMI [1]