从拿下所有的时事盘，到拉出一个打开上限的时事盘，这是 bonk 超越 pump的标志之一。 $Ani https://t.co/Ik5lU2gisS ...

Risk Management - The most reliable strategy for public funds is to hedge after a successful spot purchase [1] - Unexpected technical errors can pose significant risks, even with calculated risk management [1] - Limiting position size is crucial for preventing substantial losses [1] - Regular withdrawals are recommended as a risk mitigation strategy [1] Trading Platform Issues - Bybit exchange displayed a successful purchase confirmation despite underlying issues [1] - Users experienced losses on both spot purchases and corresponding short positions due to platform errors [1] - A user expressed frustration and demanded compensation from Bybit due to financial losses [1]

Bybit 的预售做的什么玩意，用滑块选数量，就完全没办法点确认。想提到链上继续打，提币到现在卡了20多分钟，卸载了，很难再继续用。 ...

Product Updates - A new "gmgn" tweet translation plugin has been developed [1] - The "axiom" tweet translation plugin now supports translation for tweet monitoring; users should update to the latest version [1]

User Experience & Performance - iCloud backup and restore function is reported to be inefficient, requiring over 30 hours to restore 100GB of data [1] - The slow restore process disrupts access to essential communication tools like WeChat and SMS, causing significant inconvenience [1] - The user experienced a temporary loss of contact with others due to the reliance on the restore process [1] Technical Issues & Optimization - The issue of slow iCloud restore speeds has persisted for several years without significant optimization [1] Alternative Communication - During the restore process, the user's only means of communication with their partner was through Xiaohongshu [1]

复盘一下 $V2EX1. 当时我哥喊我看一下V2EX，说感觉不太对劲，一个去年的盘子，被一直 DB，直到刚刚才射出去。因为如果只是同名的创业割人 dev，不会持续如此长的时间尺度布局，也不会只布局不喊单（因为总要通过一些手段让市场发现他），而在昨晚之前的 k 线显然没有人发现。所以决定开始研究。2. 发现最核心的 dev buy地址拿着五个 sns 域名，v2ex.sol 这里我意识到可能不对，但是看了注册时间又不能排除普通人抢注域名的可能性（后期其实发现，这个域名当时就被他作为收款账户使用过，使用 google 可以搜索到，这其实算是最短的确认路经了）。于是去看了其他几个域名是否是平台的注册用户，无果。3. 然后发现planetable.sol 这个域名和网站的功能存在关联。具体如图，在官网首页的planet 板块，右侧有几个关联链接，可以确定的是，只有有网站管理权限的人才可以编辑这一部分。此时看到 planetable.eth 的域名，距离答案已经很近了。剩下要做的就是，在这些链接里，找到和上述五个域名的直接关联。4. 进入 plantable.eth 的链接，按照以下路经即可找到和 planetabel ...

角度推感觉都不用写了，明早直接写复盘了哈，记得关注$V2EX https://t.co/fj0GNB5zOv ...

2025.7.5更新：不确定性：https://t.co/U4g65DLlqWXQ (@0xXQ1):最近思考总结的2个结论：1. 币圈所有大行情的来源只有2个，一个是底层技术变革，一个是外部增量预期。2. 收益的来源也只有两个，一个是信息差，一个是承担不确定性。1的坑回头填上，本次 $AP 也不涉及，2里的信息差之前置顶帖给过原因，这里用近期几个例子讲一下对不确定性的理解。 https://t.co/2upUx1VQ0G ...

Market Dynamics & Uncertainty - The current market situation for TAP and AP is uncertain until Elon Musk definitively announces the establishment or abandonment of a political party [1] - Uncertainty can lead to potential gains, as liquidity flows towards the direction with the greatest certainty [2] - Information asymmetry reduces uncertainty, leading to positive expected returns in the long run [2] - Retail investors inevitably bear some uncertainty due to information gaps [2] Investment & Trading Strategies - Traders need a consistent trading system to manage uncertainty and adapt to position fluctuations [2] - Relying solely on uncertainty for profit involves unseen losses, as complete uncertainty resembles a coin toss with a zero-sum or negative-sum outcome [2] Hypothetical Scenario - If Musk announces the establishment of a political party and registers it as AP, a new group (D_new) would encompass all liquidity (P), potentially leading to a price increase of 100% from C+D, with an unpredictable increase from B [2]

2. 例：PNUT，AP&TAPPNUT 时期我从5m 全程围观，一路直到 pump 历史最高市值。我记得人声鼎沸使其许多人的光鲜亮丽，当然更多人也是捶胸顿足，复盘操作上的不足，但是回到那段特定的时期，我们不能忘记的是：1. PNUT炒作初期，特朗普是否上任存在极大不确定性。2. PNUT发酵过程中，马斯克的几句非常直接的奶点燃了最初的情绪，甚至说出“这只松鼠拯救了美国”类似的话。但在他说之前，没人意料得到他会如此来说。3. 成为直通bn 现货的首批2个 pump 代币之一。三环缺一不可，但三环的不确定性，也是PNUT 一直被人围观但少有人上车的原因。同样，TAP AP也有不确定性。参考我之前的推文：https://t.co/fcp9jfzHP5总结来说不确定性有：1. 马斯克到底是嘴炮还是真要建党，真建党会是什么时候？2. 选TAP 还是 AP？3. 马斯克和特朗普会不会明天继续和好？会不会后天继续吵架。这也是造成同样的盘子，曝光度传播度很高的情况下，前期在低市值横盘的原因。因为角度所有人都知道，真正建党的规模可以类比去年的 PAC，党派的持续性会强于 PAC，作为相对估值的标的会是不错的参考，底部肯定会有 ...