Hello,大家好 今天我們來聊一個 九月魔咒的話題 所謂九月魔咒 就是說從歷史上看 從1928年以來的數據顯示 美股市場平均回報 最低的月份是九月份 它的平均回報率 是 -1.2% 並且這不僅僅 是美股特有的現象 全球股市包括 香港、英國和加拿大 都存在同樣的現象 為什麼會這樣呢 我想這主要有三個原因 第一個原因就是說 華爾街這些大機構 通常在每年的六月到八月 是他們的休假期 九月回到辦公室 幾乎所有大機構大投行 他們都在九月份 集中的進行 投資組合的調整 另外因為歷史統計上看 九月下跌的概率比較大 所以大家都希望 在這一個月迴避下跌 大家都在集中一個時間 來調整來賣出股票 就反而促成了 九月模式的自我實現 那麼另外一個原因 就是很多基金公司 他們每年財務年度 是在九月份結束 所有在九月 結束財務年度的基金 都希望在九月之前 把一些 表現不好的股票賣掉 調整自己的持倉 來讓自己的年度財報 看上去比較漂亮一些 這也是一個原因 就是大家集中的 在這樣的一個時間 進行調整 另外一個呢 美國政府的財務年度 是在九月份結束 那麼九月份也是 美聯儲一年一度 最重要的會議的一個節點 九月份的聯儲會議 決定了今年接下去 會 ...

We will often see people talking about benefits But few people talk about the cost For example Some ETFs have been very popular in recent years They use the option strategy of Covered Call To achieve high dividends Their dividend rate Usually more than 10% Some even exceed 100% It looks very attractive But have you ever thought about it. Such a high dividend rate What is the price behind it Good today's video Let's discuss On the topic of high dividend costs I will also share one Very simple way To avoid th ...

Portfolio Performance & Strategy - The Hi5 portfolio, initiated in August 2023 with 500,000 Canadian dollars, surpassed 1 million Canadian dollars by June of this year, achieving a compound growth rate close to 12% [1] - The core investment strategy is DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) plus BTD (Buy The Dip), involving consistent monthly investments regardless of market fluctuations [1] - Investing in the US stock market is a key component of the strategy, based on the belief that it will rise in the long run due to factors like oversupply of money and the influence of capitalism and vote-driven politics [1] - The strategy emphasizes that market drops and corrections, including crashes, present opportunities for accelerated wealth growth, as the market will eventually recover and reach new highs [2] Risk Management & Market Analysis - Data from JP Morgan indicates that between 1980 and 2020, 44% of companies in the Russell 3000 index experienced catastrophic losses (stock price fell >70% from peak and never recovered) [2] - During the same period, 42% of stocks in the Russell 3000 index generated negative absolute returns, and 66% underperformed the market [2] - Only 10% of stocks outperformed the market during this period, achieving cumulative returns of 500% or more [2] - Actively managed stock funds have a low survival rate, with 59% of funds from December 31, 1992, to September 30, 2022, either closing down or merging, and only 10% outperforming the S&P 500 index [2] Portfolio Rebalancing & Adjustments - The Hi5 portfolio will undergo annual rebalancing in August, involving adjusting the holdings of the 5 ETFs to maintain equal weighting [2][3] - MOAT ETF will be replaced by SPMO ETF, shifting from a fundamental-based stock selection model to a momentum-based model that selects the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 index [2][3] - The rationale for replacing MOAT with SPMO is that SPMO has demonstrated better overall performance and a superior risk-return ratio compared to MOAT [3]

Key Strategy - Leveraged Rotation Strategy (LRS) can amplify returns while effectively managing risk by reducing drawdowns and smoothing the investment process [1] - LRS involves using a moving average line as a filter: when the index closing price is above the moving average, investors buy the index with leverage; when it's below, they switch to US Treasury bonds or cash [1] - The strategy uses the moving average of the index, not the leveraged fund itself, as a filter [2] Market Analysis - Leverage can linearly amplify returns and risks, but market behavior isn't always linear; it varies with market volatility [1] - High volatility is detrimental to leverage, while small fluctuations and upward trends favor it [1] - When the S&P 500 index is above its 10-day moving average, the annualized volatility is 156%; below, it's 228% [1] - When the index is above its 200-day moving average, the annualized volatility is 146%; below, it's 269% [1] - Most significant drops occur when the index is below certain key moving averages, with the 20-day moving average being particularly important statistically [1] Performance Metrics - From October 1928 to December 2020, Buy & Hold strategy yielded a 94% annualized return, regular 3x leverage yielded 162%, and 3x LRS using the 200-day moving average yielded 267% [1] - A $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 in October 1928 would have grown to over $39 million by December 2020, while the 3x LRS strategy would have reached $28 trillion [1] - During the Great Depression, the S&P 500 fell by 86%, but the 3x LRS strategy only fell by 49%; in the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 fell by 55%, while the 3x LRS strategy fell by 31% [1]