固 2024年05月28日 定 收 益 地产收储政策能实现稳地产新模式吗？ 作者 │ 分析师：杨灵修 固 定 执业证书编号：S0590523010002 收 邮箱：yanglx@glsc.com.cn 益 专 联系人：吴嘉颖 题 ➢ “以旧换新”政策：地产去库的初步尝试 邮箱：wjiaying@glsc.com.cn “以旧换新”政策是各城市对地产去库存的初步尝试，本文归纳了以下主 要政策：1.代售购新，政府不直接参与交易。2.“旧转保”模式，旧房纳入 保障性住房房源进行统租。3.发放补贴。4.政府收购旧房，指定国企进行 集体收购。 ➢ 政府收储商品房：地产去库存的新模式 5月15日杭州市临安区发布收购商品房用作公租房的公告，该方式不同于 “以旧换新”，是地产去库存的新模式，我们预计后续政府收储商品房作为 公租房有望成为地产去库存的主要方式。该方案与国企收购房屋的模式类 似，但更加直接，收购标的也从居民二手房转变为商品房，交易对象改为 直接与地产供应商交易，该模式也与央行新设立的保障性住房再贷款相呼 应，对于地产去库存具有更直接的影响。 ➢ 保障性住房再贷款——稳地产的有力举措 本文对银行设立3000亿元保障 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the CCER market, but it indicates significant investment potential due to the increasing demand for carbon reduction tools in high-emission industries and the development of financial instruments like green bonds and loans [2][35]. Core Insights - The CCER (Chinese Certified Emission Reduction) market has officially restarted, with a total of 2,871 projects approved, 861 projects registered, and 254 projects issued as of now. The main project types include wind power, solar power, and methane utilization [1][11]. - The CCER market is expected to grow significantly due to increasing global attention on climate change and the need for carbon reduction tools in industries such as steel, cement, and electricity [2][35]. - The CCER trading system has undergone a transformation, simplifying the project approval process and enhancing transparency. The new regulations require strict compliance for emission reductions, focusing on the "additionality," "authenticity," and "uniqueness" of the projects [27][30]. Summary by Sections CCER Overview - CCER stands for Chinese Certified Emission Reduction, which quantifies and certifies greenhouse gas reductions from renewable energy, forestry carbon sinks, and methane utilization projects in China [7][8]. - The CCER serves as a reduction credit that can be used by regulated companies to offset their actual carbon emissions [8][10]. CCER Policy Development - The development of CCER policies can be divided into three phases: initial establishment (2012-2017), adjustment and improvement (2018-2023), and the current restart phase since January 2024 [18][19]. - The restart phase has seen the introduction of new regulations that enhance the legal framework for the carbon market, including the issuance of the "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading Management" [23][34]. National Voluntary Emission Reduction Trading Market Launch - The national voluntary emission reduction trading market was launched on January 22, 2024, marking the resumption of CCER project registration and trading after a seven-year hiatus [23][35]. - The trading market operates under several management documents, including the "Interim Regulations on Voluntary Emission Reduction Trading Management," which serves as the foundational system for orderly market operations [23][25]. CCER Project Development Model - The CCER project development model includes three main approaches: pure consulting mode, shared mode, and buyout mode, each with different risk and revenue-sharing structures [29][30]. - The new regulations have shifted the project approval process from registration to public announcement, improving transparency while maintaining rigorous compliance requirements [27][30]. CCER Emission Reduction Compliance Requirements - The CCER trading mechanism imposes strict technical requirements for emission reduction projects, focusing on the verification of "additionality," "authenticity," and "uniqueness" of the emission reductions [30][31]. - Specific project types may have simplified requirements for demonstrating additionality, particularly those with high costs or poor financial indicators [31][32]. CCER Trading Modes - CCER trading employs various methods, including listing agreements, bulk agreements, and single-sided bidding, with specific price fluctuation limits [33]. - The trading unit is based on "per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent," and the minimum trading volume is set at 1 ton [33][34]. CCER Market Trading Situation - On the first day of trading, the CCER market recorded a total transaction volume of 375,000 tons and a total transaction value of 23.835 million yuan, primarily driven by existing CCER transactions [35]. - The trading frequency remains low, and the new regulations have not yet significantly impacted the transaction volume or value [35].

证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利尊敬的各位投资人大家晚上好非常感谢大家接入国联宏观每周的固定栏目每周宏观来谈我是国联宏观首席分析师樊磊 然后今天晚上呢我也是跟各位这个投资人一起分享两个方面的这个话题吧一个是关于最新出来的这个中国的这个PMI的数据还有一个就是继续讨论一下美国通胀啊这是我们对于美国通胀的一个系列研究 然后对于中国这方面我们总体上的看法就是说确实PMI的数据有一些不及预期也有可能说明短期的经济存在一定的这种波折但是总体上看我们觉得PMI的数据偏弱可能很大程度上还是与小姐偏弱有比较大的影响在这种情况下实际上的经济可能不见得像PMI指数所显示的这么差 从发电耗煤、粗糖产量等等一些高频数据上看其实整个经济还是有相当的韧性那么从中期一些的视角上来 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月03日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 通信 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 产品迭代速度超越摩尔定律，加速构建以太网架构 点 通信 沪深300 评 20% 研 行业事件： 究 3% 2024年6月2日，台北国际电脑展（COMPUTEX）开幕前夕，英伟达CEO黄 仁勋在台湾大学综合体育馆发表主题为“开启产业革命的全新时代”的现场 -13% 演讲。黄仁勋梳理并介绍了英伟达的最新产品和成果，以及对未来产品的 -30% 规划。 2023/6 2023/10 2024/1 2024/5 ➢ GPU更新节奏变为“一年一次” 作者 黄仁勋宣布Blackwell芯片已经投产，并透露英伟达计划每年升级AI加速 器和AI芯片，预计将于2025年推出Blackwell Ultra AI芯片，2026年 分析师：张宁 执业证书编号：S0590523120003 推出下一代AI平台“Rubin”，2027年推出Rubin Ultra，更新节奏将变为 邮箱：zhangnyj@glsc.com.cn “一年一次”。黄仁勋称， 8年内，英伟达GPU产品从计算能力、浮点运算 以及人 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月03日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（首次） 告 建筑装饰 上次建议： │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 建筑央国企基本面：挑战、变化和机遇 专 建筑装饰 沪深300 题 10% 研  建筑央国企增长回款承压，行业集中度延续提升 究 -3% 我们选择建筑央企/代表地方国企/国际工程公司作为样本，样本企业新签 增长动能减弱，2021 年来收入利润增长中枢持续下移，2024Q1 新签/收入 -17% /归母净利增速中位数1.7%/0.3%/1.0%，与此同时现金流压力边际加大，两 金周转周期近年持续拉长，拖累资产负债率持续小幅提升。另一方面行业 -30% 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 集中度延续提升，样本企业收入及新签份额持续提升，2023年及2024Q1收 入占比25%/32%（vs 2019年19%）；新签占比49%/62%（vs 2021年40%）。 作者  “一利五率”：国际工程＞央企＞地方国企 分析师：武慧东 2023年“一利五率”指标比较，国际工程优于央企，进一步优于地方国企； 执业证书编号：S0590523080005 央企利总增长有韧性、回 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年06月03日 司 报 告 奥特维(688516) 行 业： 电力设备/光伏设备 │ 公 投资评级： 买入（首次） 横跨光伏&锂电&半导体的优质设备龙头 司 当前价格： 55.85元 深 度 投资要点： 目标价格： 92.00元 研 全球光伏组件设备串焊机的绝对龙头，市占率超70%，组件技术高速迭代背 究 景下兼备“类耗材”的市场空间和“马太效应”的竞争格局，短期受益于 基本数据 0BB技术迭代，长期成长为横跨光伏&锂电&半导体的平台型设备公司。 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 314.43/290.24 ➢ 业务横跨光伏&锂电&半导体三大优质成长赛道 流通A股市值(百万元) 16,209.95 公司营收从2018年的5.9亿元提升至2023年的63亿元，5年CAGR 60%； 每股净资产(元) 17.23 归母净利润从2018年的0.5亿元增至2023年的12.6亿元，5年CAGR 90%。 资产负债率(%) 73.48 光伏领域，组件端串焊机全球市占率超70%，硅片端低氧单晶炉获大客户认 一年内最高/最低(元) 198.30/55.21 可，电池端镀膜、丝网印刷、LEM设备等定位二供 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the construction and decoration industry, marking its first rating in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The construction industry, particularly state-owned enterprises (SOEs), is facing challenges with cash flow and profitability, while industry concentration continues to rise [1][8]. - The report highlights that international engineering firms show stronger growth momentum compared to central and local SOEs, with significant improvements in profit margins [2][27]. - The financial health of sample companies indicates a decline in revenue growth and profitability, with cash flow pressures increasing [14][19]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Analysis - The growth momentum of sample construction enterprises has weakened, with median growth rates for new contracts, revenue, and net profit at 1.7%, 0.3%, and 1.0% respectively for 2024 [8]. - The sample companies accounted for 49% of new contracts in 2023, up from 40% in 2021, indicating a rising industry concentration [8]. Subsector Performance - International engineering firms outperform central and local SOEs in key financial metrics, with 2023 profit growth led by companies like China Communications Construction and China Electric Power [25]. - Local SOEs are experiencing varied performance, with some like Anhui Construction and Shaanxi Construction showing growth, while others face significant pressure [27]. Cash Flow and Debt Analysis - Sample companies are experiencing increased cash flow pressure, with operating cash flow ratios declining and investment cash flow outflows increasing [19][21]. - The asset-liability ratio for sample companies has been gradually increasing, with 2023 and 2024Q1 ratios at 75.6% and 75.8% respectively [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two types of central SOE engineering companies: those with low valuations and good dividends, and those actively transforming and expanding in overseas markets [3].

证券研究报告 公 2024年06月03日 司 报 告 比亚迪(002594) │ 行 业： 汽车/乘用车 公 投资评级： 买入（维持） 司 当前价格： 229.02元 5 月销量同环比提升，DM-i5.0 带动产品力向上 点 目标价格： 267.73元 评 研 事件： 究 基本数据 2024年6月2日，比亚迪发布2024年5月产销快报，5月新能源汽车销量33.2 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 2,909.27/1,098.00 万辆，同比+38.1%，环比+5.9%，2024年1-5月新能源汽车销量合计127.1万 流通A股市值(百万元) 266,229.01 辆，同比+26.8%。  5月销量表现亮眼，高端车型占比环比提升 每股净资产(元) 49.15 5月王朝+海洋销量31.5万辆，同比+38.2%，环比+5.8%，腾势销量1.2万辆， 资产负债率(%) 77.14 同比+11.1%，环比+9.9%，仰望销量608辆，环比-36.1%，方程豹销量2430辆， 一年内最高/最低(元) 276.58/162.77 环比+15.2%，5月高端品牌销量占比4.6%，同比持平，环比+0.1pct。2024年 1-5 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.47 HKD [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in May sales, with a total of 161,000 vehicles sold, representing a 38.5% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The company is accelerating its transformation towards new energy vehicles and high-end products, with a notable increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles [2]. - The company is expanding its global market presence, with exports increasing by 67.8% year-on-year in May [3]. - The listing of the Zeekr brand on the New York Stock Exchange is expected to support the long-term development of the brand and enhance the company's product matrix [4]. Sales Performance - In May, the Geely brand sold 120,000 vehicles, a 29.5% increase year-on-year, while the Zeekr brand saw a remarkable 114.5% increase [2]. - Cumulative sales for the first five months of 2024 reached 790,000 vehicles, a 45.1% increase year-on-year [1]. New Energy Vehicle Growth - In May, the company sold 59,000 new energy vehicles, marking a 145.9% increase year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 36.5% [2]. - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles for the first five months reached 254,000 units, a 125.8% increase year-on-year [2]. Export Performance - The company exported 37,000 vehicles in May, accounting for 23.0% of total sales, with cumulative exports for the first five months reaching 162,000 vehicles [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 223.2 billion, 266.3 billion, and 306.6 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 19.3%, and 15.1% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 70.8 billion, 85.3 billion, and 99.8 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 33.4%, 20.5%, and 16.9% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided content, but it suggests continuous attention to the company's performance and potential [6]. Core Insights - In May 2024, the company delivered 35,020 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.8% [1]. - The launch of the L6 model has positively impacted sales momentum, with over 15,000 units delivered since its release on April 24, 2024 [1]. - The company has achieved the first A-level certification for its AI smart cockpit, enhancing user experience through its self-developed Mind GPT model [2]. - The service and charging ecosystem is expanding, with 487 retail centers and 426 supercharging stations established across the country [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 155.5 billion, 231.7 billion, and 314.2 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 25.5%, 49.1%, and 35.6% [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May 2024, the company delivered 35,020 vehicles, a 23.8% increase year-on-year, with cumulative deliveries reaching 775,000 units [1]. - The L6 model's launch has significantly boosted sales, with expectations for further growth due to promotional financing options [1]. Technological Advancements - The company’s L9 Ultra model received the first A-level certification for AI smart cockpit capabilities, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation [2]. - The Mind GPT model enhances the smart cockpit's functionality, achieving a user satisfaction score of 8.59 [2]. Ecosystem Development - The company has established 487 retail centers and 426 supercharging stations, enhancing its service and charging network across 144 cities [3]. - The expansion into lower-tier cities is expected to further strengthen the service ecosystem [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 155.5 billion, 231.7 billion, and 314.2 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25.5%, 49.1%, and 35.6% respectively [4]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 10.81 billion, 17.86 billion, and 29.25 billion yuan, with growth rates of -7.6%, 65.2%, and 63.7% [4].