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7月A股会反弹吗?继续配红利还是科技?
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-30 15:14
本次会议为华经证券客户开发设计在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险本次会议内容的知识产权仅为华经证券所有未经华经证券事先书面许可 和或个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、发布或引用会议全部或部分内容亦不得从未经华经证券书面授权的任何机构、个人或其运营的媒体平台接收、翻版、复制或引用会议的全部或部分内容不得制作会议机要对外发送擅自制作会议机要引起不当传播的后果自负版权所有 违者必究 好的各位投资者大家晚上好我是环境人权研究所策略设计分析师邓丽君那又到了我们每周的聚焦一刻的电话会议的时间那今天是六月底啊明天就是七月份那本周呢我们聚焦一刻的主题呢呃给大家关注一下就是七月份的这个A股的走势因为 整个6月份A股走的还是比较弱持续的这个数量的悬底那也跌破了3000点不过最近两天A股已经有一定的这个奇闻的迹象了那我们自然就会问就是7月份A股会怎么走会不会有反弹还是说会延续6月的这个走势延续比较偏弱的这么一个趋势呢 然后我们看到六月份表现比较好的是两头啊一个呢就是高股息相关的一些资产另外呢就是科技啊表现还是相对比较占优的那么七月份啊我们到底 ...
七月可能出现反弹
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-30 03:00
http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 定期报告 内容目录 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | 图表目录 | | | | 图 1: 7 月市场表现及相关指标变化一览… | | | | 图 2: 高技术制造业 PMI 处于景气区间 . | | | | 图 3: 商品房销售增速出现改善 . | | | | 图 4: 4-5 月上中下游行业工业企业利润累计增速变化一览 . | | | | 图 5: 5月各工业行业利润总额累计同比一览 | | | | 图 6: 2023 年中报登利增速分行业一览 . | | | | 图 7: 近期央行加大逆回购力度 . | | | | 图 8: 当前民调数据显示特朗普支持率高于拜登 . | ...
通信行业周报:OpenAI收紧管制,中国纯血鸿蒙、千帆星座迸发
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-29 03:30
通信 行业周报 OpenAI 收紧管制,中国纯血鸿蒙、千帆星座迸 投资要点 1、本周回顾 本周通信(中信)下跌 1.19%,同期上证指数下跌 1.03%,深证成指下跌 2.38%,创 业板指下跌 4.13%,沪深 300 下跌 0.97%。从板块来看,高频 PCB 本周表现优秀, 涨幅达 2.86%,光模块(CPO)相对弱势,跌幅达 6.76%。涨幅前三的个股为: 线上线下(17.62%)、会畅通讯(16.35%)、华菱线缆(8.44%)。通信行业转跌。此外, AI 算力指数本周下跌 3.44%、东数西算指数下跌 2.21%;专网领域标的佳讯飞鸿 下跌 3.55%、海能达上涨 2.52%。通信产业驱动较多,持续催化,看好全板块投资 机会。算力/大模型:OpenAI 将采取额外措施,停止其不支持的国家和地区的 API 使用;科大讯飞发布星火大模型 4.0:整体超越 GPT-4 Turbo;中国移动算力中心 北京节点投入使用,智能算力规模超 1000P;内蒙新政:大型数据中心要建在集群 内,绿电比例不低于 80%;中国移动携手中兴通讯率先在河北落地网络云智算项目; 5G 网络基建:上海移动 5G-A 商用发布,推 ...
应用落地与数据最新情况
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-29 03:10
Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry involved in the conference call Core Points and Arguments - The call begins with an expression of gratitude for attendance, indicating a formal and professional setting [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - No additional content or significant insights are provided in the document [1]
传媒:Gemma 2发布,降本提效延展AI生态
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-28 08:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 10% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of Gemma 2 by Google, which features two model sizes: 9 billion parameters and 27 billion parameters. The upcoming 2.6 billion parameter model is expected to be more suitable for AI applications on smartphones. The continuous iteration of large language models is anticipated to accelerate AI empowerment in both B-end and C-end applications [1]. - Gemma 2 demonstrates significant performance improvements over its predecessor, with a notable reduction in deployment requirements, now only needing an NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPU or TPU host. The architecture has been comprehensively improved, utilizing local sliding window attention and global attention mechanisms [1]. - The training data for Gemma 2 includes 130 trillion tokens for the 27B model and 80 trillion tokens for the 9B model, sourced from various documents, code, papers, and scientific articles. The model employs knowledge distillation methods to replicate superior performance at a smaller scale [1]. - The report emphasizes that Gemma 2 has shown outstanding performance in several benchmark tests, significantly outperforming previous versions and other standard models in tasks involving complex cognitive challenges [1]. - The investment suggestion indicates that the continuous iteration of high-quality models is expected to expand the AI ecosystem, providing diverse empowerment across various industries. The report recommends focusing on companies such as Tencent, NetEase, Meitu, and others [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market" with a maintained rating [1]. Key Events - The report discusses the global release of Gemma 2 by Google on June 27, which includes models with 9 billion and 27 billion parameters [1]. Model Performance - Gemma 2 shows a significant performance increase compared to its predecessor, with deployment requirements greatly reduced [1]. - The model's architecture has been improved with local and global attention mechanisms [1]. Training Data - The training data for the models consists of 130 trillion tokens for the 27B model and 80 trillion tokens for the 9B model [1]. Benchmark Performance - Gemma 2 has excelled in various benchmark tests, showcasing its capabilities in complex cognitive tasks [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Tencent, NetEase, and others for potential investment opportunities [1].
新股覆盖研究:科力装备
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-28 08:00
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for Keliy Equipment (301552 SZ) [2][3] Core Views - Keliy Equipment is a leading supplier of automotive glass assembly components, deeply integrated with Fuyao Glass, the domestic leader and global top-four player in the automotive glass industry [32] - The company has rapidly expanded its presence in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with NEV-related revenue growing from 68 02 million yuan in 2021 to 166 90 million yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 61 68% and 51 76% in 2022 and 2023 respectively [33] - Keliy Equipment's global and domestic market shares in automotive glass assembly components reached 5 57% and 14 49% respectively in 2023 [32] Financial Performance - Keliy Equipment achieved revenues of 293 million yuan, 405 7 million yuan, and 487 8 million yuan in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, with YoY growth rates of 67 33%, 38 44%, and 20 24% [19] - Net profits attributable to the parent company were 60 7 million yuan, 116 3 million yuan, and 137 1 million yuan for the same periods, with YoY growth rates of 34 91%, 91 52%, and 17 86% [19] - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 128 million yuan, a 37 23% YoY increase, and net profit of 36 million yuan, a 60 93% YoY increase [19] Industry Overview - The global automotive glass market is highly concentrated, with the top four players (Fuyao Glass, AGC, NSG, and Saint-Gobain) accounting for over 75% of the market share [26] - Fuyao Glass holds a 28% global market share and a 69% domestic market share in China [26] - The global automotive glass assembly components market is estimated to reach 7 611 billion yuan in 2023, with the domestic market projected at 2 793 billion yuan [31] Competitive Landscape - Keliy Equipment's revenue scale is below the industry average of 1 186 billion yuan, but its gross profit margin of 42 72% exceeds the industry average of 28 56% [40] - Comparable companies include Zhaomin Technology, Zhejiang Xiantong, Xingyuan Zhuomai, and Haida Shares, though their product applications differ significantly from Keliy Equipment [40] IPO Projects - Keliy Equipment plans to invest 256 6 million yuan in an intelligent production project for automotive glass assembly components, with an expected post-tax internal rate of return of 21 55% and a payback period of 6 63 years [37] - The company will also invest 44 24 million yuan in a new energy vehicle parts R&D center [37] Growth Prospects - For H1 2024, Keliy Equipment forecasts revenue of 260 million to 290 million yuan, a YoY increase of 26 23% to 40 80%, and net profit of 72 million to 80 million yuan, a YoY increase of 23 47% to 37 19% [39]
新股探寻(乔锋智能、安乃达、键邦股份)
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-28 04:05
大家好欢迎参加华经星谷星谷探寻第47期乔峰智能安乃达建盟股份电话会议目前所有参会者均处于静状态下面开始播报面子声明声明播报完毕后就将老师 本次会议为华经证券客户开发设计在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险 本次会议内容的知识产权仅为华经证券所有未经华经证券事先书面许可任何机构和或个人不得以任何形式转发、翻版、复制、发布或引用会议全部或部分内容亦不得从未经华经证券书面授权的任何机构、个人或其运营的媒体平台接收、翻版、复制或引用会议的全部或部分内容 不得制作会议纪要对外发送擅自制作会议纪要引起不当传播的后果自负版权所有 违者必究 各位领导大家早上好我是华金证券新股首席理会感谢大家来参加我们新股探寻系列线上汇报的第47期的一个汇报了今天就要给大家汇报三个标的啊然后乔峰智能安乃达还有建盟股份 然后今天就用比较简短的这个给大家汇报一下即将上市的这三个标的然后跟之前一样就是如果需要更为深入的去了解相关的公司我们是欢迎各位领导可以跟我们去联系那我废话少说现在我们给大家先说第一个标的乔峰智能 乔峰智能这家公司是比较典型的国内的这个疏控机床设 ...
传媒:电商市场发展稳中向好,消费习惯逐步形成
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-27 23:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the e-commerce industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 10% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 index [1]. Core Viewpoints - The e-commerce market is developing steadily, with consumer habits gradually forming. The global economic recovery and the impact of the pandemic and digital technology have catalyzed growth in the e-commerce sector, with global retail sales increasing from $2.4 trillion in 2017 to $5.5 trillion in 2022 [1]. - The report highlights that the cross-border e-commerce industry in China has maintained a growth rate exceeding 20% year-on-year from 2017 to 2021, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 16.4% over the next three years, aiming to surpass ¥10 trillion by 2025 [1]. - Domestic e-commerce user consumption habits are evolving, driven by diverse innovations. The report notes that during the 618 shopping festival, online retail and express delivery volumes showed growth, with daily active users reaching 667 million, surpassing last year's figures [1]. Summary by Sections Market Development - The report discusses the opening of the first Google Cross-Border E-commerce Acceleration Center in Xiamen, which aims to enhance market activities and content planning in the region [1]. - It emphasizes the increasing recognition and trust of Chinese brands overseas, providing ample growth space for cross-border e-commerce [1]. User Behavior and Trends - According to QuestMobile data, the active user base of major e-commerce platforms has shown stable growth, with platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou becoming significant advertising channels during promotional periods [1]. - The report indicates that consumers are increasingly focusing on long-term value and quality rather than short-term discounts during major sales events [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as BlueFocus Communication Group, Yuanlong Yatu, and Tianyu Digital Science, among others, as they are expected to benefit from the steady development of the cross-border e-commerce market [1].
集成电路:多重逻辑共振,数字芯片SOC景气持续走高
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-27 14:00
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Leading the Market - A" [1] Core Viewpoints - The digital chip SOC industry is experiencing a sustained increase in prosperity, driven by multiple resonating factors, including the transition from inventory reduction to an upward industrial trend [1] - The expected net profit for Lexin Technology for the first five months of 2024 is approximately 118.71 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 123.51% [1] - The domestic digital chip SOC manufacturers are in a phase of catching up with overseas competitors, with the industry evolving to meet diverse hardware demands [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - The digital chip SOC serves as the main control unit for various hardware devices, including servers, PCs, tablets, smartphones, TVs, and security devices, each with distinct customer groups and requirements [1] - The industry has transitioned from a high-demand phase in 2021 to a destocking phase in 2022, with a recovery in inventory levels and a return to healthy operational conditions by 2024 [1] Market Trends - The trend of "quality export" is becoming a significant driver for growth in the domestic industry chain, with companies like Stone Technology expanding globally [1] - New hardware forms such as TWS earbuds, smartwatches, and VR/AR devices are emerging, alongside the maturation of AI large models, which are expected to enhance demand for computing power at the edge [1] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include RichChip, Allwinner Technology, Starry Technology, and others, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry growth [2]
智能驾驶系列报告(二):特斯拉智能驾驶方案简剖
Huajin Securities· 2024-06-27 12:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the automotive industry [1]. Core Insights - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is a pure vision solution that relies solely on cameras, distinguishing it from most domestic automakers that use multi-sensor fusion [2][9]. - The FSD system utilizes a unique software algorithm and has become the first company globally to mass-produce an "end-to-end" neural network for autonomous driving, simplifying the process from rule-based to data-driven [2][26]. - Tesla's FSD is significantly ahead of domestic competitors in terms of data volume, computing power, and hardware compatibility, although it faces challenges in adverse weather conditions and has a higher buyout price compared to other advanced driver-assistance systems [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Tesla FSD Development History - Tesla's FSD has evolved through various hardware iterations, increasing camera count from 2 in HW1.0 to 12 in HW4.0, while also enhancing image resolution from 1.2 million pixels to 5 million pixels [27][30]. - The FSD system has transitioned from a modular approach to an integrated "end-to-end" model, which combines perception, decision-making, and planning into a single architecture [26][27]. 2. FSD System Overview - The FSD system includes features such as automatic navigation, lane changes, parking, traffic light recognition, and city driving assistance, making it the most comprehensive product in Tesla's driver assistance lineup [6][7]. - Tesla's FSD relies on a network of eight cameras to create a 3D vector space for driving decisions, mimicking human visual processing [10][12]. 3. Algorithm Iteration - The FSD's algorithm has progressed from traditional feature extraction to advanced architectures like BEV+Transformer and Occupancy Network, enhancing its perception capabilities [12][20]. - The introduction of time-series information and the Occupancy Network has allowed the FSD to operate in a 4D space, improving its ability to predict and react to dynamic environments [21][23]. 4. Market Potential in China - China is identified as the largest market for electric vehicles, with Tesla's cumulative sales expected to exceed 1.7 million units by the end of 2023, potentially generating additional revenue of 5.44 billion to 39.168 billion yuan from FSD penetration [2][12].