偶倒 0680 （本刊物为中风险等级产品，敬请投资者参阅正文后的免责声明） 2024 年第 159 期，总第 1718 期（电子版） 2024 年 8 月 29 日 星期四 美元离岸人民币 7.1283 -0.06 欧元兑美元 1.1131 0.1 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|--------------|-----------| | | 沪深指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 2837.43 | -0.4 | | 深证成指 | 8078.82 | -0.31 | | 中小 100 | 5189.58 | 0.06 | | 创业板指 | 1531.45 | 0.05 | | 沪深 300 | 3286.5 | -0.57 | | | 海外市场指数 | | | | 收盘(点) | 涨跌幅(%) | | 道琼斯 | 41091.42 | -0.39 | | 纳斯达克 | 17556.03 | -1.12 | | 标普 500 | 5592.18 | -0.6 | | 英国富时 100 | 8343.85 | -0.02 | | 日经 ...

证券研究报告 银行 报告日期：2024 年 09 月 03 日 资产质量优异 资产规模稳步提升 ——苏州银行（002966.SZ）2024 年半年报点评报告 事件： 苏州银行发布 2024 年半年度报告，公司上半年实现营业收入 63.88 亿元，同比增长 1.88%；净利润 30.44 亿元，同比增长 11.20%。 其中归属于母公司股东的净利润 29.53 亿元，同比增长 12.10%。 投资评级：增持（首次覆盖） 资产规模稳步增长。2024H1，苏州银行资产总额 6595.14 亿元， 较上年末增加 576.73 亿元，增幅 9.58%；各项存款余额 4152.30 亿元，较上年末增加 514.10 亿元，增幅 14.13%；各项贷款余额 3251.16 亿元，较上年末增加 317.15 亿元，增幅 10.81%。公司净 利润维持双位数增长，主要受益于资产质量稳定和优秀的成本管 控能力。 资产质量维持稳定。2024H1，苏州银行不良贷款余额 27.37 亿元， 较年初上升 2.76 亿元；不良贷款率 0.84%，与年初基本一致，公 司不良率稳定在较低位；拨备覆盖率 486.8%，拨贷比 4.1%，公 司拨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong performance in IT distribution, self-branded products, and cloud services, with a valuation lower than the industry average [4][7] Core Views - The company's 2024H1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue growing by 12.5% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 17.5% YoY (37.2% YoY excluding the impact of IIC) [2] - IT distribution business remains stable, with revenue reaching 59.83 billion yuan, a 9.8% YoY increase, and gross margin improving by 0.3% [2] - Self-branded products and cloud services grew significantly, driven by the AI and domestic innovation (Xinchuang) trends, with revenue increases of 45.5% and 62.7% YoY, respectively [2] - The company's AI server business, particularly the Shenzhou Kuntai AI server, achieved a 273.3% YoY revenue growth, indicating strong potential for future growth [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.416 billion yuan, 1.730 billion yuan, and 2.114 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.6x, 9.5x, and 7.8x [4][5] - Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with 2024-2026 revenue forecasts of 127.003 billion yuan, 134.447 billion yuan, and 142.620 billion yuan, representing YoY growth rates of 6.17%, 5.86%, and 6.08%, respectively [5] - Gross margin is projected to improve slightly, from 3.92% in 2022 to 4.86% in 2026, driven by the growth of high-margin self-branded and cloud services [5][10] Business Highlights - The company successfully introduced domestic semiconductor brands like Huawei HiSilicon, leveraging its leading position in IT distribution to capitalize on the domestic computing power trend [2][4] - The cloud services and software business achieved a 62.67% YoY revenue growth and a 6.82% YoY increase in gross margin, supported by the company's strategic focus on generative AI and data asset management [2] - The company's AI server business is expected to benefit from the acceleration of Xinchuang tenders, with significant revenue growth potential [2][4] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is lower than the industry average, with 2024-2026 P/E ratios of 11.6x, 9.5x, and 7.8x, compared to the industry average of 26.0x, 22.2x, and 19.3x [4][7] - Key competitors include Aisidi (002416.SZ), Shenzhen Huaqiang (000062.SZ), and Inspur Information (000977.SZ), with the company showing stronger growth potential in self-branded and cloud services [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a slight recovery in sentiment, with supply and demand dynamics showing signs of stabilization. However, the overall demand is expected to shift back to industrial use as residential cooling needs decrease with the cooling weather [1][3]. - The report highlights that while the coal price adjustments have largely been absorbed, the long-term value proposition for coal companies remains intact due to stable assets and cash flows, supporting high dividend payouts [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - From August 26 to August 30, 2024, the coal index rose by 1.91%, with sub-sectors like coking coal and coke showing increases of 2.55% and 2.31% respectively [9]. 2. Key Industry Data 2.1 Thermal Coal - As of August 30, 2024, the price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 725.00 CNY/ton, a 0.14% increase week-on-week. The prices in Shanxi and Shaanxi showed slight declines [13][34]. - Inventory levels at major northern ports were 30.48 million tons, down 0.46% week-on-week but up 4.10% year-on-year [16][35]. 2.2 Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1,770.00 CNY/ton, up 5.36% week-on-week. Coking coal inventories at three ports totaled 3.51 million tons, up 2.34% week-on-week [20][35]. 2.3 Downstream Demand - National electricity consumption reached 766.9 billion kWh, a 20.83% year-on-year increase. However, coal consumption is expected to decline as the peak summer demand subsides [27][34]. 3. Industry News - The report notes a decline in revenue for the coal mining sector, with a 21.7% drop in profits for the coal extraction and washing industry in the first seven months of 2024 [32]. 4. Key Company Announcements - China Shenhua reported a revenue of 168.08 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 0.81% year-on-year, influenced by falling coal prices and reduced electricity sales [33]. 5. Weekly Insights - The supply of thermal coal is stable, with minor reductions expected due to seasonal factors. The demand for coking coal is influenced by the steel market, with speculative buying increasing but overall demand remaining weak [34][35].

证券研究报告 化工 报告日期：2024 年 09 月 02 日 磷矿石、维生素市场高位持稳运行，关注供给约束方向 ——化工行业周报 华龙证券研究所 最近一年走势 投资评级：推荐（维持） 原油：截至 2024 年 8 月 30 日，WTI 原油期货价格为 73.55 美元/ 桶，周环比下降 1.71%；布伦特原油期货价格为 78.8 美元/桶， 周环比下降 0.28%。亚洲主要消费国的炼厂开工负荷依然没有扭 转低迷状态，而美国传统旺季即将结束，炼厂开工负荷也面临走 向拐点，导致市场对需求前景难有乐观心态,预期市场博弈有望延 续，持续关注美联储降息影响及 OPEC+9 月后的产出策略。 分析师：孙伯文 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 邮箱：sunbw@hlzqgs.com 聚酯化纤：市场对"金九银十"纺织旺季仍持谨慎态度，旺季特 征或并不明显。PA6 常规纺市场表现平淡，终端订单未有明显好 转，下游心态偏谨慎，需求较疲软，阶段性补货为主，市场交易 氛围一般致使 PA6 常规纺市场震荡下行，然高速纺切片下游纺丝 开工高位稳健，冬装订单稍有增加，市场交易稍有好转。 联系人：彭越 执业证书编号：S02301 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [1][30]. Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of +1.62%, ranking 19th among 31 industries [1][30]. - The report highlights a moderate recovery in demand, emphasizing structural opportunities within the sector, particularly for high-quality leading companies that demonstrate resilience and risk resistance [1][30]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional leaders like Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjia Jiu [1][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - From August 26 to August 30, the food and beverage index rose by +1.62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by -0.43%, indicating a 2.05 percentage point outperformance [7][30]. - Sub-sectors with notable gains included pre-processed foods (+6.41%), condiments (+5.02%), and other alcoholic beverages (+4.33%), while soft drinks (-4.61%) and dairy products (-1.56%) saw declines [7][30]. 2. Price Fluctuations - The report notes that the price of Feitian Moutai remained stable at 2400 CNY per bottle, with slight fluctuations in other liquor prices [17]. - The average price of fresh milk was reported at 3.20 CNY per kilogram, with a downward trend in the prices of barley and sugar [17][18]. 3. Industry News - Key developments include the national branding strategy of Jinhuijiu through high-speed rail collaborations and the reported revenue growth in the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing sector [25][26]. - The report also mentions the acquisition plans of Mogao Co. for a 51% stake in Haotian Technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [26]. 4. Key Company Announcements - Notable earnings reports include Wuliangye's revenue of 50.648 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.30%, and Dongpeng Beverage's revenue of 7.873 billion CNY, growing by 44.19% [27][29]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Three Squirrels, which achieved a revenue of 5.075 billion CNY, up 75.39% year-on-year [29][32]. 5. Weekly Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of leading companies in the food and beverage sector amid a challenging demand environment, suggesting that long-term investment opportunities remain attractive [30][31].

相关阅读 《20240826A 股投资策略周报告：美 联储释放降息信号》 《20240819A 股投资策略周报告：7 月经济数据分化，消费端有所改善》 《20240805A 股投资策略周报告：政 策力度预期提升》 策略研究报告 证券研究报告 策略报告 报告日期：2024 年 9 月 2 日 工业企业利润延续回升 ——A 股投资策略周报告 A 股市场走势(2023/08/04-2024/09/02) 摘要（核心观点）： 央行买卖国债管理流动性。2024 年 8 月央行开展了公开市场国债买卖操作， 央行国债买卖主要目的是调节市场流动性，而非量化宽松政策。"买短卖 长"符合央行强调的"要保持正常向上倾斜的收益率曲线，保持市场对投 资的正向激励作用"，同时也有助于加强货币政策与财政政策协调配合， 实现基础货币有效投放，支持经济稳定增长，提振和扩大内需。 姓 名：朱金金 执业证书编号：S0230521030009 邮 箱：zhujj@hlzq.com 8 月制造业 PMI 延续小幅回落。8 月制造业 PMI 为 49.1%，较 7 月下降 0.3%， 低于市场预期，表明制造业景气度有所下行。大型企业 PMI 小幅下降， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in waterproof materials revenue, while the mortar powder business continues to grow. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.218 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.69%. Specifically, the waterproof materials segment generated revenue of 10.808 billion yuan, down 12.62% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.13%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points. Conversely, the mortar powder segment reported revenue of 2.128 billion yuan, up 11.76% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 27.46%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 15.218 billion yuan, a decline of 9.69% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 943 million yuan, down 29.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue from engineering and retail channels reached 12.138 billion yuan, accounting for 79.76% of total revenue, an increase of 8.44% year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - The waterproof materials business generated 10.808 billion yuan in revenue, a decrease of 12.62% year-on-year, while the mortar powder business achieved 2.128 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 11.76% year-on-year [1]. - The engineering channel revenue was 6.699 billion yuan, up 9.07% year-on-year, and the retail channel revenue was 5.438 billion yuan, up 7.66% year-on-year, indicating a continuous increase in the proportion of revenue from engineering and retail channels [1]. Future Outlook - The company is accelerating its global expansion, seeking a third growth curve through international research, establishing overseas companies, and expanding overseas channels. The projected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are -9.05%, 5.79%, and 11.35%, respectively, with expected revenues of 29.852 billion yuan, 31.579 billion yuan, and 35.164 billion yuan [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry [1]. Core Insights - Alibaba has released the open-source multimodal model Qwen2-VL, which surpasses GPT-4o in multiple performance metrics. This model supports real-time video dialogue and can understand long videos exceeding 20 minutes [1][16]. - In August, a total of 117 domestic online games were approved, including titles from major companies like Tencent and 37 Interactive Entertainment [10]. - Google's researchers have introduced GameNGen, the first AI game engine capable of real-time simulation without traditional game engine components, achieving over 20 frames per second [13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - From August 26 to August 30, the Shenwan Media Index rose by 4.41%. The top five gainers included Guangxi Guangdian, Sanliu Wu, and Fushi Holdings [7]. 2. Industry News - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 117 domestic online games in August, with various platforms represented [10]. - The National Radio and Television Administration emphasized the need for the micro-short drama industry to evolve from "substandard" to "high-quality" productions [11]. - The 54th Statistical Report on China's Internet Development indicated that as of June 2024, the number of internet users reached 1.1 billion, with short video users accounting for 95.5% of the total [12]. 3. Key Company Announcements - 37 Interactive Entertainment reported a revenue of 9.232 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.96% [14]. - Huayi Brothers announced a revenue of 308 million yuan for the same period, a decrease of 9.05% [14]. - Other companies like Shenzhou Taiyue and Haikan Co. also reported significant revenue growth [15]. 4. Weekly Insights - The continuous iteration and optimization of AI models like Qwen2-VL are expected to expand AI applications across various sectors, particularly in gaming, education, and companies developing AI models [22]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three major AI application scenarios within the media sector: gaming/film industry (recommended companies include 37 Interactive Entertainment, Century Huatong, and Wanda Film), AI education (recommended companies include Zhongwen Media, Phoenix Media, and Shandong Publishing), and companies involved in AI model development [22].

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