《问界 M8 上市 4 天大定 5 万台，关注 鸿蒙智行新车周期—汽车行业周报》 2025.04.21 《零跑 B10 上市，关注智驾硬件普及— 汽车行业周报》2025.04.14 《新势力 3 月销量同比+82.9%，看好后 续新品市场表现—新势力车企销量点评 月报》2025.04.03 摘要： 证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 12 日 吉利计划全资控股极氪，体系整合应对市场淘汰期 ——汽车行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 分析师：杨阳 执业证书编号：S0230523110001 邮箱：yangy@hlzq.com 联系人：李浩洋 执业证书编号：S0230124020003 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 本周观点：吉利计划全资控股极氪，体系整合应对市场淘汰期。 吉利汽车或计划对极氪进行私有化，有望实现内部资源整合，减 少关联交易，在当前乘用车市场淘汰期聚焦资源利用率的最大化。 私有化后，极氪及领克品牌自由度相对增强，吉利有望整合产业 链零部件公司，精简冗员的同时协同采购，释放规模效应；营销 体系和售后网络运营等由集团公司统一规划也有望提升当前极氪 独立 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 12 日 铁水日产高位微增，关注淡季需求支撑 ——钢铁行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 执业证书编号：S0230124010004 邮箱：pengy@hlzq.com 同推进化解过剩产能—钢铁行业周报》 2025.04.01 行业周报》2025.03.18 《以高质量供给引领需求，综合整治"内 卷式"竞争—钢铁行业点评报告》 2025.03.05 请认真阅读文后免责条款 供给端：截至 2025 年 5 月 9 日，五大钢材合计产量 874.17 万吨， 周环比下降 1.08%，同比下降 1.31%;247 家钢铁企业铁水日均产 量 245.64 万吨，周环比上升 0.09%，同比上升 4.75%;247 家钢铁 企业高炉产能利用率 92.09%，周环比上升 0.09 pct，同比上升 4.42 pct;87 家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率 55.08%,周环比下降 0.38 pct,同比上升 3.20 pct。本周五大钢材中除热轧冷轧卷板 外，其他钢 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in performance and improved profitability, with a Q1 2025 revenue of 4.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 108.52% [4][6] - The demand for fiberglass in the wind power and new energy vehicle sectors is strong, and price increases in fiberglass products are expected to enhance profitability in 2025 [6] - The company adheres to a strategic framework of "one core, two chains, three highs, and four transformations" to strengthen its core fiberglass business and build a comprehensive industrial ecosystem [6] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 financial results: - Revenue: 4.479 billion yuan, up 32.42% year-on-year - Net profit: 730 million yuan, up 108.52% year-on-year [4][6] - Revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027: - 2025: 19.106 billion yuan (20.50% growth) - 2026: 20.633 billion yuan (7.99% growth) - 2027: 22.071 billion yuan (6.97% growth) [7] - Net profit forecast for 2025-2027: - 2025: 3.216 billion yuan - 2026: 3.592 billion yuan - 2027: 3.934 billion yuan [7] - Current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 14.6, 13.1, and 12.0 respectively [6][7] Comparable Company Valuation - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 58.3 times for 2025, indicating a significant valuation gap compared to the company's current P/E [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.524 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.08% to 249 million yuan [3][5]. - The company benefits from the domestic high-end and new high-temperature alloy production scale, with significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in sectors related to the Belt and Road Initiative, where revenue growth reached 54.08% [5][6]. - The industry outlook is positive, with a strong upward trend in demand for military and civil aviation engines, supported by a 7.2% increase in national defense spending in 2025 [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 3.524 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.4%. The forecast for 2025 is 3.824 billion yuan, reflecting an expected growth rate of 8.51% [7]. - The net profit for 2024 was 249 million yuan, with projections of 288 million yuan for 2025, indicating a recovery with a growth rate of 15.93% [7]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 30.40% in 2025 [10]. Market and Product Insights - The company focuses over 60% of its products on the aerospace sector, which is expected to see robust growth in both military and civil aviation engine demands [5][6]. - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international markets, with significant potential in low-altitude economy and gas turbine sectors [5][6]. - The product structure is anticipated to optimize further, enhancing overall profitability and net profit margins in the coming years [5][6].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a "certain" approach to counter external "uncertainties" in the economic environment, highlighting the importance of stabilizing domestic demand and preparing for international trade challenges [5][12][13] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a GDP growth of 5.4%, surpassing the national target of 5% for 2024, indicating a positive economic trend [12][18] - The report outlines a collaborative effort between fiscal and monetary policies, with an emphasis on timely implementation and the introduction of new structural monetary policy tools [14][15] Market Analysis - The report notes that the A-share market has shown stability, with major indices experiencing slight increases during the observation period [21] - The industrial sector has seen a turnaround in profits, with Q1 2025 industrial profits increasing by 0.8% compared to a decline of 3.3% in 2024 [18][19] - The manufacturing sector, particularly high-tech manufacturing, has demonstrated significant profit growth, with high-tech manufacturing profits turning from a decline of 5.8% to an increase of 3.5% in Q1 2025 [19] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors related to technological innovation and advanced manufacturing, particularly in electronics and digital economy [25] - It highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles [25] - The report also emphasizes the need for risk mitigation in key areas such as real estate and capital markets, advocating for policies that stabilize these sectors [15][16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4] Core Views - The company achieved total operating revenue of 60.514 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.825 billion yuan, up 160.36% year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 15.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.06%, and a net profit of 0.247 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 138.2% [4] - The company is the largest global producer of modified plastics, with a production capacity of 3.72 million tons per year, and achieved a sales volume of 2.5515 million tons in 2024, up 20.78% year-on-year [6][10] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with revenue from overseas operations reaching 8.792 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.73% [6][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 60.514 billion yuan, with significant contributions from modified plastics (32.075 billion yuan), materials trading (12.371 billion yuan), green petrochemical products (11.436 billion yuan), and new materials (3.654 billion yuan) [6] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 22.07%, 0.41%, -6.36%, and 15.83% respectively [6] - The company expects net profits to reach 1.451 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 75.95% [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its competitive advantages in modified plastics to capture opportunities in emerging fields such as smart driving and recycling [6][10] - The company is enhancing its local supply and service capabilities in overseas markets, significantly increasing its market share in regions like the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia [6][10] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.069 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.460 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.6 and 11.4 [8][10] - The company is also focusing on the domestic production of high-end materials, aligning with national strategies for industrial development [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4] Core Views - The company achieved total operating revenue of 60.514 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.825 billion yuan, up 160.36% year-on-year [4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 15.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.06%, and a net profit of 0.247 billion yuan, up 138.2% year-on-year [4] - The company is the largest global producer of modified plastics, with a production capacity of 3.72 million tons per year, and achieved a sales volume of 2.5515 million tons in 2024, a growth of 20.78% year-on-year [6][10] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with revenue from overseas operations reaching 8.792 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.73% [6][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 60.514 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.825 billion yuan, with significant growth in various business segments [4][6] - The company forecasts revenues of 69.491 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.451 billion yuan, indicating continued growth [8] Business Segments - The modified plastics segment generated 32.075 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 53% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.95% [6] - The green petrochemical segment reduced losses, contributing 11.436 billion yuan to revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 22.30% [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its competitive advantages in modified plastics to capture opportunities in emerging fields such as smart driving and recycling [6][10] - The company is enhancing its local supply and service capabilities in overseas markets, significantly increasing its market share [6][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [3] Core Views - The company has achieved significant performance growth driven by breakthroughs in multiple high-end products, with a revenue of 6.238 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.156 billion yuan, up 60.1% year-on-year [3][5] - The company is positioned as a global leader in energy valves, making progress in technology innovation, product performance, quality control, and service capabilities [5] - The ongoing global energy transition and the Belt and Road Initiative are expected to provide continuous opportunities for the company in both domestic and international markets [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.238 billion yuan, a 12.5% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 1.156 billion yuan, reflecting a 60.1% growth [3][7] - The company forecasts net profits of 1.289 billion yuan, 1.449 billion yuan, and 1.637 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.7, 14.0, and 12.4 [5][7] - The company plans to maintain robust growth in its main valve and component business while achieving rapid growth in castings and forgings, with an expected increase in gross margin as high-end products continue to break through [5][7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has successfully broken the monopoly of foreign brands in the domestic high-end market by obtaining domestic certification for multiple products and achieving breakthroughs in emerging fields such as nuclear power, hydrogen energy, and energy storage [5] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, benefiting from the rising investment climate in traditional and new energy sectors along the Belt and Road Initiative [5] Earnings Forecast Summary - The company is expected to continue increasing its R&D investment while expanding in traditional sectors and achieving breakthroughs in nuclear power, shipbuilding, deep-sea, fine chemicals, and energy storage [5][7] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.99%, 11.01%, and 10.05% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 11.59%, 12.36%, and 13.01% [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [4] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 888 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.31%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 63.96 million yuan, up 4.17% year-on-year [4][6] - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 126 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.56%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was -47.97 million yuan, showing a decline [4][6] - The company focuses on CAx core technologies, with significant growth in 3D CAD/CAE products, achieving a revenue growth of 29.21% and 36.23% respectively in 2024 [6][7] - The overseas business has been expanding, with a revenue growth of 28.77% in 2024, and a gross margin increase of 0.38% to 99.35% [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, which accounts for 94.35% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 85 million yuan, 111 million yuan, and 137 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.70 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 1.13 yuan respectively [7] - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 128.5, 98.7, and 80.1 respectively, while the P/S ratios are expected to be 10.7, 9.3, and 8.3 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.189 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.13%. Excluding the impact of the sale of the wireless vehicle-mounted business, the revenue growth was 23.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 668 million yuan, an increase of 18.53% year-on-year. The growth in revenue and profit was primarily driven by the domestic automotive electronics and smart home sectors, particularly in the 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) business [4][7] - To seize new opportunities in the edge AI development, the company established an AI research institute in 2024, focusing on the technology ecosystem of edge AI [7] - The company has a strong first-mover advantage and customer base in the wireless communication module industry, having developed a complete product line and established quality clients across various sectors including automotive electronics, smart home, consumer electronics, smart retail, low-altitude economy, and robotics [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 8.166 billion yuan for 2025, 8.957 billion yuan for 2026, and 10.364 billion yuan for 2027. The net profit is projected to be 655 million yuan in 2025, 741 million yuan in 2026, and 868 million yuan in 2027. The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 29.4, 25.9, and 22.2 respectively [8][9] - The company's revenue growth rates are projected to be -0.28% in 2025, 9.69% in 2026, and 15.70% in 2027. The net profit growth rates are expected to be -1.97% in 2025, 13.24% in 2026, and 17.06% in 2027 [9][13] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of 16.42% in 2025, with a slight decrease to 16.38% in 2026 and an increase to 16.74% in 2027 [9][13]