执业证书编号：S0230523080002 邮箱：pengq@hlzq.com 证券研究报告 建筑材料 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 21 日 关税政策对建材行业影响有限，关注地产政策带动的行业估值修复 ——建筑材料行业月报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 相关阅读 《风电、新能源汽车需求旺盛，关注玻 纤涨价带来的投资机会—建筑材料行业 月报》2025.03.25 《水泥需求回升价格持续上涨，行业盈 利能力有望提升—建筑材料行业周报》 2025.03.18 两侧积极变化—建筑材料行业周报》 2025.03.03 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 建材行业：2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国正式实施所谓的"对等关税" 政策，对所有进口商品加征 10%的关税，并对中国商品加征额外 关税，后续又对中国商品出台多轮加征关税措施。关税政策下， 建材行业整体影响有限，同时房地产作为拉动内需的核心领域， 有望成为政策发力方向，关注地产政策带来的行业估值修复，维 持建材行业"推荐"评级。 分析师：彭棋 水泥行业：2025 年 3 月份全国水泥平均出货率环比提升约 26 个 百分点，同比提升约 8 个百 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 25.731 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.323 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 498.11% [3][5] - The growth in demand for smartphones and automobiles has driven high growth in the company's CIS (CMOS Image Sensor) business, with smartphone CIS revenue increasing by 26.01% to 9.802 billion yuan and automotive CIS revenue reaching 5.905 billion yuan [5] - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, which accounted for 15% of semiconductor design sales revenue, ensuring product upgrades and enhancing competitiveness [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's CIS business generated 19.190 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 74.76% of its main business income, an increase of 23.52% from the previous year [5] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.406 billion yuan, 5.301 billion yuan, and 6.000 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.3, 28.5, and 25.2 [5][7] - The company's R&D expenses have consistently increased, with a 10.89% year-on-year growth in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to innovation and product development [5] Market Data - As of April 16, 2025, the company's stock price is 124.22 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 150.61 billion yuan [3][5] - The company has a 52-week price range of 81.41 to 161.96 yuan, indicating volatility in its stock performance [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3262.81 points, up 0.76%[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9884.3 points, up 0.51%[2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.28 trillion yuan, a decrease of 71.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] Sector Performance - Major consumer stocks surged, with e-commerce, sports, and retail sectors showing significant gains[5] - Hainan local stocks also performed well, with Haiqi Group hitting the daily limit[5] - The multi-financial concept stocks saw a rise, with Jiuding Investment reaching the daily limit[5] Financing Data - As of April 11, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 918.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day[8] - The financing balance on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 874.86 billion yuan, down 1.48 billion yuan from the previous trading day[8] - The total financing balance for both markets was 1.793 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.975 billion yuan[8] Investment Insights - The market showed a shrinking upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above the 10-day moving average, indicating a good profit-making effect for most stocks[9] - The market's rapid rotation of themes suggests a weakening upward momentum, advising caution against chasing high prices in the short term[9] Notable News - ByteDance plans to launch its own AI smart glasses, indicating a clear trend in the AI glasses industry, which is expected to grow rapidly[13] - The global semiconductor equipment spending remains strong, with ASML projecting that global semiconductor sales will exceed $1 trillion by 2030[13] Limit-Up Stocks - Zhongzhou Special Materials (300963.SZ) rose 20% due to nuclear power and marine engineering themes[15] - Yuekang Pharmaceutical (688658.SH) increased by nearly 20% driven by AI medical and innovative drug developments[15] - Multiple stocks in the consumer and technology sectors reached their daily limit, reflecting strong market interest[15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the humanoid robot industry [2][29] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing a multi-faceted entry from automotive companies, leveraging their large-scale standardized manufacturing experience and convenient application scenarios to accelerate mass production [29] - Recent collaborations, such as the strategic partnership between Great Wall Motors and Yushutech, aim to explore innovative scenarios like "off-road vehicles + robotic dogs," enhancing the integration of robotics in the automotive sector [20][29] - GAC Group has introduced new core components for humanoid robots, including an integrated joint product and a low-voltage servo driver, which are set to be industrialized by 2025 [21][29] Market Review - From April 7 to April 11, 2025, the humanoid robot index experienced a decline of 7.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.11% [14][16] - Notable stock movements during this period included North Rare Earth (+7.99%) and Shilin Co. (+6.35%) among the top gainers, while Hongxun Technology (-16.98%) and Stone Technology (-15.59%) were among the biggest losers [16][19] Industry Dynamics - The partnership between Great Wall Motors and Yushutech focuses on the integration of robotics technology into the automotive industry, aiming to create a comprehensive ecosystem of "smart cars + smart robots" [20][29] - GAC Group's new products are designed to meet the full range of operational needs in humanoid robots, from precision tasks to high-load movements, with plans for mass production by 2026 [21][29] - Fourier has launched its first open-source humanoid robot, Fourier N1, aimed at providing a platform for global developers in robotics and embodied intelligence [24][29] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with high certainty and incremental technology, closely monitoring Tesla's Optimus production progress and developments from domestic players like Huawei and Yushutech [29][30] - Specific stocks to watch include those in the Tesla supply chain, such as Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Top Group, as well as companies linked to Yushutech and Huawei [29][30]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in Q1 financial data, with a cumulative increase in social financing of 2.37 trillion yuan compared to the same period in 2024, and a year-on-year increase in RMB loans to the real economy by 586.2 billion yuan [5][15]. - The U.S. tariff policy has shown some fluctuations, with a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on April 9, which is expected to positively impact the market [5][12]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicate a narrowing decline in CPI and a continued decrease in PPI, suggesting a complex economic environment influenced by seasonal factors and international oil prices [5][13][14]. Market Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of the U.S. tariff policy changes, which have created a more favorable environment for market performance, particularly in sectors benefiting from domestic policy support and local replacements [12][17]. - The market sentiment has improved due to proactive domestic responses to tariff policies, with increased capital inflows stabilizing market confidence [17]. Industry and Theme Configuration - Key areas of focus include technology innovation and advanced manufacturing, particularly in electronics and digital economy sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support and industry catalysts [18][22]. - The report also highlights the importance of domestic demand, with sectors such as home appliances, automotive, and machinery being prioritized due to increasing uncertainties in external demand [22]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in themes such as new production capabilities, low-altitude economy, mergers and acquisitions, and debt management [22]. Market Data - The report provides insights into the performance of various indices, indicating a mixed performance across global and domestic markets during the specified period [23][24]. - It includes detailed valuation metrics for major indices and sectors, showing the price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, which can guide investment decisions [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The official launch of the Leapmotor B10, an all-electric SUV, on April 10, 2025, highlights the focus on the proliferation of intelligent driving hardware. The model features a price point starting at 119,800 yuan and includes advanced driving assistance capabilities [5][15]. - The report emphasizes the increasing consumer demand for safety in intelligent driving systems, particularly in light of recent accidents. The use of LiDAR technology is expected to enhance detection accuracy and reduce the impact of environmental factors [5][15]. - The report anticipates a rapid increase in the penetration rate of LiDAR technology, driven by both heightened safety requirements and declining costs, with projections indicating prices could fall below 200 USD by 2025 [5][15]. Industry Dynamics - Notable industry developments include a strategic partnership between Great Wall Motors and Yushun Technology to advance robotics in the automotive sector [16]. - The second-generation full-stack line control chassis from SAIC is expected to be launched by 2027, indicating ongoing innovation in vehicle technology [18]. - The report tracks the performance of the automotive sector, noting that the automotive index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.64 percentage points during the week of April 7 to April 11, 2025 [5][34]. Data Tracking - In March 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.94 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.80% and a month-on-month increase of 40.18% [60]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.1% in March 2025, with retail sales of 991,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 38.75% [60]. - The report notes that the inventory level for automotive dealers in March 2025 was reasonable, with a comprehensive inventory coefficient of 1.56, indicating stable market conditions [69].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 159.73 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.37% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, the revenue was 48.77 billion yuan, up 13.19% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.74 billion yuan, an increase of 158.92% year-on-year [3][5] - The company is experiencing a significant reduction in losses per vehicle in its new energy segment, with sales of 243,900 units for the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.12%. The average price per vehicle is 101,900 yuan, up 0.95% year-on-year. The new energy segment's sales are growing rapidly, with Deep Blue and Avita achieving sales of 243,900 and 73,600 units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 78.14% and 165.04% [5][9] - The "Haina Baichuan" plan is progressing steadily, with overseas production capacity gradually being established. The Thailand manufacturing base is expected to start production in May 2025, with a capacity of 100,000 vehicles per year, covering global right-hand drive markets [6][9] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 189.94 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 18.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 8.03 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.7% [7][10] - The company's current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.2 for 2025, compared to an average P/E of 17.6 for comparable companies, indicating that the company's valuation is below the average of its peers [9][10] - The company plans to launch 35 intelligent vehicles over the next three years, aiming to achieve full-scene L3/L4 autonomous driving capabilities by 2026/2028 [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 159.73 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.37% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 48.77 billion yuan, up 13.19% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.74 billion yuan, an increase of 158.92% year-on-year [3][5] - The company's sales volume reached 2.68 million vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.12%, with an average selling price of 101,900 yuan per vehicle, up 0.95% year-on-year. The new energy vehicle segment saw significant growth, with sales of 243,900 units for Deep Blue and 73,600 units for Avita, representing year-on-year increases of 78.14% and 165.04%, respectively [5][9] - The company is advancing its "Haina Baichuan" plan, with overseas production capacity gradually being established, including a manufacturing base in Thailand expected to start production in May 2025, with an annual capacity of 100,000 vehicles [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 159.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.32 billion yuan. The Q4 2024 revenue was 48.77 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.74 billion yuan [3][5] - The company forecasts revenues of 189.94 billion yuan, 207.68 billion yuan, and 227.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.03 billion yuan, 10.31 billion yuan, and 12.57 billion yuan [7][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on smart driving technology and has a rich pipeline of new products, planning to launch 35 smart vehicles over the next three years [6][9] - The company aims to enhance its global presence, with plans to establish over eight new companies in regions like the UK, Brazil, and the Middle East in 2025 [6][9] Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 15.2 for 2025, compared to an average of 17.6 for comparable companies, indicating that the company's valuation is below the industry average [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The official launch of the Leapmotor B10, an all-electric SUV, highlights the focus on the proliferation of intelligent driving hardware, with the model priced at 119,800 yuan and featuring advanced capabilities [5][15] - The penetration rate of LiDAR technology is expected to increase significantly due to rising safety requirements and decreasing costs, with projections indicating prices could drop below 200 USD by 2025 [5][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of intelligent driving systems, particularly in light of recent traffic incidents raising consumer concerns about safety redundancies [5][15] Industry Dynamics - Great Wall Motors has formed a strategic partnership with Yushun Technology to advance the industrialization of robotics in the automotive sector [16] - The second-generation full-stack control chassis from SAIC is anticipated to be launched by 2027 [5][16] - The automotive sector has seen a decline in stock performance, with the automotive index underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.64 percentage points during the week of April 7 to April 11, 2025 [5][34] Market Data - In March 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.94 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.80% and a month-on-month increase of 40.18% [5][60] - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 51.1% in March 2025, up 8.81 percentage points year-on-year [5][60] - The report notes that the penetration rate for L2.5 and above intelligent driving systems reached 17.11% in February 2025, marking a historical high [5][68] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in intelligent driving such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and SAIC, as well as key players in the intelligent hardware sector like Desay SV, Coboda, and Huayang Group [5][15] - For commercial vehicles, it recommends attention to leading bus and heavy truck manufacturers such as Yutong Bus and China National Heavy Duty Truck [5][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained as "Buy" [2][7]. Core Views - BYD is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85.0-100.0 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 86.04%-118.88%, with a midpoint estimate of 92.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 102.46% year-on-year [4][6]. - The significant growth in profitability is attributed to increased overseas sales and the release of scale effects, with overseas sales reaching 206,100 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 110.51% [6]. - The company is advancing its high-end strategy with strong performance from its premium brands, including Tengshi and Fangchengbao, which saw sales increases of 37.20% and 73.64% respectively in Q1 2025 [6]. - BYD's global expansion strategy is progressing smoothly, with new production facilities in Uzbekistan and Thailand already operational, and additional factories planned in Brazil, Hungary, Indonesia, and Turkey [6]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of BYD is approximately 1,022,341.75 million yuan, with a current stock price of 336.40 yuan [3]. - The projected revenue for BYD is expected to grow from 602,315 million yuan in 2023 to 1,337,186 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.35% from 2025 to 2026 [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 30,041 million yuan in 2023 to 81,025 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 38.94% from 2025 to 2026 [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.6 in 2023 to 12.6 in 2027, indicating a potential valuation premium as the company continues to strengthen its market position [8][9].