海 外 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 ( ＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持 ） 美国地产 2024 年 6 月跟踪： ＃title＃ 降息预期下观望情绪较强，销售连续同比下滑 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 07 月 25 日 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 相关报告 《【兴证海外地产】美国地产 2024 年 5 月跟踪报告：新房销 量 2023 年 4 月以来首次转跌， 新房二手房价格倒挂》20240629 《【兴证海外地产】美国地产 2024 年 4 月跟踪报告：供给增 加下，需求因高利率环境依然较 弱》20240606 《【兴证海外地产】美国地产 2024 年 3 月跟踪报告：二手房 延续补库趋势，新房单户住宅开 工放缓》20240508 《【兴证海外地产】美国地产 2024 年 2 月跟踪报告：二手房 库存开始底部修复，新房供需稳 中有增》20240406 《【兴证海外地产】美国地产 2024 年 1 月跟踪报告：二手房 库存销售边际改善，单户住宅开 工许可量加速增长》20240228 ＃分析师： e ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 银行 ＃relatedReport＃ LPR"换锚"，与七天逆回购联动加强 ——央行降息点评 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 7 月 23 日 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃(＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持） 投资要点 ＃⚫ summary LPR 与七天逆回购利率联动加强，与 ＃ MLF 联动弱化。本月 LPR 与 7 天逆回购 利率同步下降，MLF 利率保持不变，与此前潘功胜行长在陆家嘴论坛提及的货 币政策思路相符。6 月 19 日，潘功胜行长在陆家嘴论坛上提出，"未来可考虑 明确以央行的某个短期操作利率为主要政策利率，目前看 7 天期逆回购操作 利率已基本承担了这个功能"。7 月 12 日，金融时报也发文提及 LPR 或迎改 进，"MLF 对 LPR 定价有一定参考作用，但也不是完全挂钩，未来也可以考虑 借鉴国际经验，用类似 SOFR 的短端市场利率作为浮动贷款利率的定价基准"。 ⚫ 央行持续展现稳定长端利率的决心。央行下调 7 天逆回购利率的同时，发布 公告"有出售中长期债券需求的 MLF ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 电气设备 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ (＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持 ） ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 《【兴证电新-周报】中东成光伏 投资热土，超、特高压出海带动 输变电设备新增量》2024-07-21 《【兴证电新-周报】降息预期带 动光伏行情回暖，电力设备基本 面坚挺看好后市行情 20240714》2024-07-13 《【兴证电新-周报】持续看好电 网设备，重点关注特高压、出海、 电改三条主线-20240629》2024- 06-29 ＃分析师： emailAuthor ＃ 王帅 wangshuai21@xyzq.com.cn S0190521110001 武圣豪 wushenghao@xyzq.com.cn S0190524030007 杨志芳 yangzhifang@xyzq.com.cn S0190524030002 杨森 yangsen@xyzq.com.cn S0190523120003 ＃研究助理： assAuthor＃ 高元甲 gaoyuanji ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 汽车行业 dongxiaobin@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080001 liuxinyao@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070005 研究助理 刘思仪 liusiyi@xyzq.com.cn 远期 ToB 的智能驾驶规模化后，将有望带来全社会交通成本和物流成本的降低。 ToB 的智能驾驶可以分成载人运营的 Robotaxi 与载物运营的 Robotruck，伴随技 术逐步成熟与法规逐步开放，我们认为 ToB 的智能驾驶有望带来出行交通和物流成 本降低。（1）载人运营的 Robotaxi 规模化后，运营公司有望实现盈亏平衡，同时城 市居民短途出行成本有望大幅降低。（2）载物运营的 Robotruck 规模化后，将有望 带来全社会物流成本的降低。 看好 Robotaxi 发展前景，从产业链上游和下游寻找主力投资机会。Robotaxi 产业 链上游包括传感器/芯片/惯导等硬件供应商，软件算法供应商以及智能驾驶软硬件的 检测机构，中游为整车制造商，下游包括运营商与自动充电/自动清洗/自动泊车等服 务商。Robotaxi 属于 B 端自动驾驶，而非 C ...

行 业 研 究 ＃title＃ ＃assAuthor＃ 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 光伏设备 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ ( ＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持 ） 逆变器专题：新兴市场助力需求恢复，逆变器扬帆再起航 ＃createTime1＃2024 年 07 月 22 日 投资要点 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证电新】光伏行业 6 月 投资策略：行业筑底， 曙光初现》2024-05-30 《【兴证电新】光伏行业 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季 报总结：持仓集中度提 升，挖掘行业α机遇》 2024-05-07 《【兴证电新】光伏 3 月报： 需求回暖，迭代加速》 2024-03-22 ＃分析师： emailAuthor ＃ 王帅 wangshuai21@xyzq.com.cn S0190521110001 余静文 yujingwen@xyzq.com.cn S0190523020004 杨森 yangsen@xyzq.com.cn S0190523120003 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 逆变器业绩持续改 ...

海 外 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 （ 维持 ） 2024Q2 公募基金港股地产物管持股总结： ＃title＃ 央国企持仓集中度提升，中国海外宏洋获最多增持 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 07 月 23 日 相关报告 《2024Q1 公募基金港股地产物 管持股总结：绿城中国获最多增 持，港资房企持仓比例提升》 20240507 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 宋健 songjian@xyzq.com.cn SFC：BMV912 SAC：S0190518010002 孙钟涟 sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190521080001 请注意：孙钟涟并非香港证券及 期货事务监察委员会的注册持 牌人，不可在香港从事受监管的 活动 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 2024Q2 港股地产物管行业表现回顾：截至 2024Q2，恒生地产指数 YTD 降幅 为 19.2%；恒生物业管理指数 YTD 降幅为 11.3%；但 Q2 内（4 月 1 日~6 月 28 日）恒生地产指数降幅为 4.6%，恒生物业管理 ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 化工 ＃investSuggestion investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ (＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 重点公司 | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 万华化学 | 买入 | | 华鲁恒升 | 买入 | | 扬农化工 | 买入 | | 中国巨石 | 增持 | | 联化科技 | 增持 | | 华峰化学 | 增持 | | 金禾实业 | 买入 | | 新和成 | 增持 | | 润丰股份 | 增持 | | 中国石油 | 增持 | | 中国石化 | 增持 | | 宝丰能源 | 买入 | | 恒力石化 | 增持 | | 卫星化学 | 增持 | | 荣盛石化 | 增持 | | 东方盛虹 | 增持 | | 桐昆股份 | 增持 | | 新凤鸣 | 增持 | ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 张志扬 zhangzhiyang@xyzq.com.cn S0190520010003 吉 金 jijin@xyzq.com.cn S0190522030003 张 勋 zha ...

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 农林牧渔 2024Q2 农业板块持仓情况分析 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ ＃ investSuggest ionChange＃ (维持) ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 07 月 24 日 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 ⚫ 《【兴证农业】2024 年 6 月宠物品牌电商数据跟 踪：618 落下帷幕，抖音 同比高增》2024-07-17 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 截至 2024Q2，农业板块的公募配置比例为 1.73%，板块处于中配位置。公募 基金持有农业板块市值为 423 亿元，较 Q1 下降 48 亿元，板块总市值占 A 股 总市值的 1.39%。其中海大、温氏、牧原持仓市值占农业板块公募持仓总市值 71%,TOP10 占 90%。截至 24Q2，持有农业上市公司的基金数量达到 1211 家， 较 24Q1 下降 327 家。 ⚫ 《【兴证农业】周报：猪 价偏强震荡，鸡苗价格 上涨》2024-07-14 ⚫ 《【兴证农业】周报：出 栏体重持续回落，猪价 震荡上行》2024-07-07 ＃分析师： ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company's FY2024Q3 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of $10 billion, a 2.5% YoY increase, and net income attributable to shareholders of $1.35 billion, a 1.4% YoY increase [1][5] - The company's new home sales remained robust, with 24,155 homes delivered in FY2024Q3, a 5% YoY increase, and 23,001 homes sold, a 1% YoY increase [1][6] - The company's financial position is strong, with $3 billion in cash and $5.7 billion in interest-bearing debt, resulting in a net debt ratio of 10.6% and a total capital debt ratio of 18.8% [1][8] - The company announced a new $4 billion share repurchase plan, representing approximately 7% of its market capitalization as of July 19, 2024 [1][9] Financial Performance - FY2024Q3 revenue was $10 billion, exceeding the company's guidance and representing a 2.5% YoY increase [1][5] - Net income attributable to shareholders was $1.35 billion, a 1.4% YoY increase [1][5] - Gross margin for the quarter was 26.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points YoY [1][5] - Net margin attributable to shareholders was 13.6%, also a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points YoY [1][5] - Quarterly dividend per share was $0.3, a 20% YoY increase [1][5] Operational Performance - The company delivered 24,155 homes in FY2024Q3, a 5% YoY increase, with recognized revenue of $9.2 billion, a 6% YoY increase [1][6] - The company sold 23,001 homes in FY2024Q3, a 1% YoY increase, with sales revenue of $8.7 billion [1][6] - As of June 30, 2024, the company had 42,600 homes in inventory, with 26,200 unsold, indicating healthy inventory levels [1][6] Shareholder Returns - In FY2024Q3, the company repurchased 3 million shares for $441.4 million and paid $98.5 million in dividends, returning a total of $540 million to shareholders [1][9] - The company had $459.7 million remaining in its share repurchase authorization as of June 30, 2024, and announced a new $4 billion repurchase plan [1][9] Updated Guidance - The company tightened its FY2024 revenue guidance to $36.8-$37.2 billion and increased its home delivery guidance to 90,000-90,500 homes [12] - For FY2024Q4, the company expects revenue of $10-$10.4 billion, home deliveries of 24,000-24,500, and a gross margin of approximately 24% [12] - The company increased its FY2024 share repurchase guidance from $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion [12]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company expects to deliver 20,500-21,000 units in FY2024Q3, representing a year-over-year growth of 10-13% [1] - The company's FY2024 full-year delivery target remains at 80,000 units, with stable profit margins [1] - The company has strong financial strength, is in a net cash position, and actively returns value to shareholders through buybacks and dividends [1] - The company's performance is sensitive to potential US interest rate cuts, which could enhance stock price elasticity [1] Financial Performance - In FY2024Q2, the company reported revenue of $8.766 billion, a 9.0% year-over-year increase, and net income attributable to shareholders of $954 million, a 9.5% year-over-year increase [3][5] - The company's home sales revenue accounted for 95.6% of total revenue in FY2024Q2, reaching $8.381 billion [3][5] - The company delivered 19,690 homes in FY2024Q2, with an average delivery price of $426,000, representing a 15% increase in volume and a 9% increase in value year-over-year [6] - The company sold 21,293 homes in FY2024Q2, with an average selling price of $432,000, representing a 19% increase in volume and a 13% increase in value year-over-year [6] Profitability and Margins - The company's gross margin for home sales in FY2024Q2 was 22.6%, with a net margin of 15.1% [7] - The company expects its gross margin to remain around 23% in FY2024Q3 [7] Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong cash position, with $3.6 billion in cash and $2.2 billion in interest-bearing debt as of FY2024Q2 [8] - In FY2024Q2, the company repurchased 3.8 million shares for $603 million and paid a dividend of $0.5 per share [8] - The company has authorized a $5 billion share repurchase program, with $1.109 billion already repurchased in Q1 and Q2 of FY2024 [8] Historical Financials - From FY2020 to FY2023, the company's revenue grew from $22.489 billion to $34.233 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.1% [4] - The company's net income attributable to shareholders fluctuated during this period, peaking at $4.614 billion in FY2022 before declining to $3.939 billion in FY2023 [4] - The company's return on equity (ROE) was 15.5% in FY2023, down from a peak of 22.8% in FY2021 [4]