jinluyu@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080003 yanchangming@xyzq.com.cn S0190514110001 hongbo@xyzq.com.cn S0190523040002 证券研究报告 #industryId# 房地产 #inve中stSu性ggestion# (维持) 新房二手房周报:保障性住房再贷款已发放超 120 亿元 2024 年 7 月 14 日 #相r关el报ate告dReport# 投资要点 我们跟踪 12 个城市新房+二手房合计成交面积:本周成交面积 244.7 万方,环 比-25.6%,同比+4.7%。2024 年 7 月以来,新房二手房整体成交面积环比+29.2%, 同比+21.2%。2024 年年初以来,新房二手房整体成交面积同比-22.9%,其中, 一/二/三四线新房二手房整体成交面积累计同比-11.1%/-25.9%/-24.4%。注:12 城为有周频新房二手房数据更新的北京、深圳、杭州、成都、青岛、苏州、厦 门、南宁、扬州、金华、江门、佛山。(数据口径:本周为 7 月 5 日至 7 月 11 日, 2024 年 7 月以来为 7 月 1 ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 #industryId# 煤炭开采 维持 ) #title# 煤炭行业周报(07.07-07.13)—— 动力煤价稳步回升,焦煤需求淡季不淡 #createTime1# 2024 年 07 月 14 日 投资要点 #⚫ summary 动力煤:#动力煤价格走强,日耗需求稳步提升 动力煤港口价格:7 月 12 日,秦皇岛动力煤平仓价为 861 元/吨,周环比 +1.1%;2024年 7月,动力煤长协价(Q5500)为 700元/吨,同比-0.1%,环比 持平。 产地坑口价:7 月 12 日,山西大同 Q5500 坑口含税价 735 元/吨,周环比增加 15 元/吨;鄂尔多斯 Q5500 坑口含税价 670 元/吨,周环比增加 11 元/吨;陕西 榆林 Q5800 坑口含税价 741 元/吨,周环比增加 15 元/吨。 库存:北港:7 月 12 日,北方港口煤炭库存 2648.0 万吨,周减 69 万吨。下 游:7 月 11 日,沿海八省终端用户库存 3722.5 万吨,周减 23.4 万吨;可用天 数 16.8 天,周减 0.2 天。7 月 11 日,内陆 17 省终端用户库存 9 ...

证券研究报告 房地产行业 #title# 海外地产周报(2024.07.08-2024.07.14) #investSuggestion# 推荐 # investSuggesti onChange# (维持) 地产板块表现好于大市 #createTime1# 2024 年 07 月 14 日 指数表现: 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|-------------------------|------------------|---------------| | 《6 月销售数据改善》 | 指数名称 | 指数点位 | 本月涨跌幅(%) | | 20240707《北京加入放松行列》 | 恒生地产分类指数 | 54,105.83 | 6.55 | | 20240630 | 恒生指数 | 18,293.38 | 3.24 | | 《等待政策放松后的市场修 | 恒生国企指数 | 6,532.63 | 3.17 | | 复》20240623《地产板块进入盘整期》 | 道琼斯指数 | 40,000.90 | ...

证券研究报告 #industryId# 汽车 周动态:萝卜快跑武汉订单量快速增长; 6 月乘用车零售同比-6.7% 维持 ) #inve推stSu荐ggestion# ( # investS uggesti onChan ge# | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | 重点公司 | | | 重点公司 | 评级 | #createTime1# 2024 年 07 月 14 日 长城汽车 增持 银轮股份 增持 拓普集团 增持 爱柯迪 增持 福耀玻璃 买入 科博达 增持 来源:兴业证券经济与金融研究院 指数 周涨跌幅(%) 周成交额(亿元) 年初至今涨跌幅(%) 本期涨跌幅(2024.7.8-2024.7.12):本周汽车板块跑赢大盘。本周涨跌幅:上证综指 +0.7%,创业板指+1.7%,汽车板块指数+5.4%,其中乘用车/商用车/零部件/汽车服务 涨跌幅分别为+7.1%/+4.2%/+4.2%/+9.7%。汽车板块周度成交额环比提升。 周度板块估值(2024.7.8-2024.7.12):汽车板块 PE-TTM(不调整)为 24.8,1 年历史估值 分位为 14.3%。本期乘用车 ...

行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 计算机 \n＃ investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ ( ＃ investS 维持 ） | ＃ title ＃ 未来已来， Robotaxi 迎商业化落地 （ 7.7-7.13 ） | | uggesti onCha nge ＃ ＃相关报告 relatedReport ＃ | ＃ creat ...

证券研究报告 #industryId# 汽车 #investSuggestion 推荐 #(# investS uggesti onChan ge# 维持) 行 业 点 评 报 告 相关报告 【兴证海外汽车】全球视野看自 动驾驶系列(一)路线之争持续, 特斯拉有望率先突围 【兴证海外汽车】全球视野看自 动驾驶系列(二):技术路线逐 渐清晰、国产激光雷达占得先机 【兴证海外汽车】全球视野看自 动驾驶系列(三) Momenta-- Mpilot&MSD 双轮驱动,踏上商 业化征程 海外汽车行业研究 分析师: 余小丽 兴业证券经济与金融研究院 yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn SFC:AXK331 SAC:S0190518020003 研究助理: 张弘彬 zhanghongbin@xyzq.com.cn #title# 全球视野看自动驾驶系列(四) AI 应用落地,Robotaxi 商业进程加速 #createTime1# 2024 年 7 月 12 日 投资要点 #近年来, summaryAI#技术迅速发展,Robotaxi(无人驾驶出租车)作为其重要应用之一,商业化进程 加速。其中百度旗下萝卜快跑有望今 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth in its African business while still benefiting from its Mongolian coal operations. The report highlights the company's alignment with national mineral safety strategies and its deep understanding of logistics, which supports its long-term growth [1][17]. - The projected net profits for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 1.45 billion, 1.73 billion, and 1.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.2, 10.2, and 8.9 times based on the closing price on July 12 [1][15]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects a median profit of approximately 460 million yuan for Q2 2024, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [1]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 9.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 39.7% [15]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.8% in 2024, with a long-term target of 21.1% by 2026 [15]. Business Segments - **Mongolian Operations**: The company continues to see stable growth in its Mongolian coal business, with increased storage and supply chain share due to strategic investments and long-term planning [14][17]. - **African Operations**: The infrastructure projects in Africa, particularly the Kasai project, are expected to see significant growth in business volume as operational efficiencies improve. The integration of the newly acquired Zambian fleet is also projected to enhance logistics capabilities and market share [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [1][10]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of potential consumption tax reforms on the automotive industry, suggesting that such reforms could enhance profitability for car manufacturers and stimulate vehicle sales [1][10]. - It highlights the current structure of vehicle purchase taxes in China, which includes value-added tax, purchase tax, consumption tax, and vehicle and vessel tax, with specific rates and exemptions for traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles [3][4]. - The report anticipates that the consumption tax reform may involve shifting the tax collection responsibility to local governments and adjusting tax rates, which could lead to increased sales and profitability for automotive companies [8][10]. Summary by Sections Tax Structure Overview - The purchase taxes for vehicles in China consist of four main types: value-added tax (13%), purchase tax (10%), consumption tax (1%-40% based on engine displacement), and vehicle and vessel tax, with additional duties for imported vehicles [3][4]. - New energy vehicles benefit from tax exemptions, including no consumption tax and reduced purchase tax [3][4]. Historical Context of Consumption Tax - The automotive consumption tax has evolved through three main phases since its inception in 1994, with adjustments made to tax rates based on vehicle displacement [5][7]. - In 2023, the total consumption tax revenue reached 1.6118 trillion yuan, with automotive consumption tax accounting for 8.85% of the total in 2018 [5][6]. Potential Reform Directions - The report outlines potential directions for consumption tax reform, including shifting the tax collection to local governments and adjusting tax rates to stimulate sales [8][10]. - It estimates that exempting vehicles with engine displacements below 1.5L from consumption tax could lead to a fiscal impact of approximately 49.7 billion yuan, potentially increasing sales by 100,000 to 150,000 units [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing exposure to the automotive sector, highlighting companies such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto for vehicle manufacturers, and Fuyao Glass and other parts suppliers for their strong performance and growth potential [10].

证券研究报告 #银行industryId# #investSuggestion 推荐 # (# investS uggesti onChan ge# 维持) 相关报告 #relatedReport# 行 业 点 评 报 告 《政府债发力拉动社融增速回 升——2024 年 5 月金融数据点 评》 2024.6.15 分析师:#emailAuthor# 陈绍兴 SAC:S0190517070003 chenshaox@xyzq.com.cn 王尘 SAC: S0190520060001 wangchenyjy@xyzq.com.cn #title# "挤水分"扰动延续,社融增速回落 ——2024 年 6 月金融数据点评 #createTime1# 2024 年 7 月 13 日 投资要点 #⚫ summary 信贷受"挤水分"持续扰动,社融增速回落至 # 8.1%。2024 年 6 月社融新增 3.30 万亿 元,同比少增 9283 亿元,拆分结构来看: (1)对实体经济发放的人民币贷款新增 2.20 万亿元,同比少增 1.05 万亿元。6 月信 贷同比少增,一方面是去年同期基数偏高,另一方面主要是实体需求仍相对 ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 #industryId# 建筑材料 #investSuggestion 推荐 # (# investS uggesti onChan ge# 维持 ) 淡季提价稳利润,底部信号出现 #createTime1# 2024 年 07 月 12 日 投资要点 #summary# ⚫ 上半年水泥盈利探底,行业协同淡季提价有望支撑下半年利润。2024 年 一季度行业整体呈现出"需求萎缩、竞争激烈、库存高位、价格走低"的 运行特征。从 5 月中下旬开始,龙头企业率先启动年内第二轮提价。7 月 以来,多数地区陆续安排三季度错峰生产,京津唐、辽宁和贵州相继发布 新一轮涨价通知,同时长三角地区水泥熟料价格也再次推涨,预计 2024 下半年政策效应逐步释放,基建进度加快,而水泥企业限产意识和保价意 识较上年有所提升,后期全国水泥价格多将呈现震荡上行走势,整体均价 预计好于 2023 年下半年,行业利润有望扭亏为盈。 ⚫ 供给端:头部协同共识增强,主要区域错峰天数增加。24Q2 错峰生产协同 共识增强,行业头部积极推动减产。6 月为水泥市场传统淡季,供需同步 转弱,但受错峰及生产成本增加等供应因素影响 ...