Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the luxury goods industry, specifically for LVMH [1]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, LVMH reported a revenue of €19 billion, with an organic revenue decrease of 3% year-on-year, primarily due to a slowdown in revenue growth in Japan attributed to the strengthening of the yen [5][6]. - The breakdown of revenue by category in Q3 2024 shows: - Wines and Spirits: €1.386 billion, organic decline of 7% - Fashion and Leather Goods: €9.151 billion, organic decline of 5% - Perfumes and Cosmetics: €2.012 billion, organic growth of 3% - Watches and Jewelry: €2.386 billion, organic decline of 4% - Retail: €3.927 billion, organic growth of 2% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Q3 2024 revenue by region shows: - USA: 0% year-on-year change - Japan: +20% - Asia (excluding Japan): -16% - Europe: +2% [6]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese market experienced a slight decline in demand in Q3 2024, influenced by consumer confidence and discretionary spending, along with increased tariffs on certain European goods [2][6]. - LVMH is exiting unofficial channels for perfumes and cosmetics in China, with a 5% organic growth in this segment from January to September 2024, driven by strong performances from brands like Christian Dior and Fenty Beauty [3][6]. Future Outlook - LVMH remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the Chinese luxury market, viewing the current slowdown as cyclical rather than structural, anticipating a rebound in demand once consumer confidence is restored [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the luxury goods industry, specifically for Hermès [1]. Core Insights - The demand for high-end consumer goods continues to be strong across various regions, with Hermès reporting total sales of €3.7 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth at constant exchange rates. For the first nine months of 2024, revenue reached €11.2 billion, marking a 14% increase year-over-year at constant exchange rates [1][5]. - Revenue growth by region for the first nine months of 2024 includes: 1. Asia (excluding Japan) +7% (H1 2024: +10%) 2. Japan +23% (H1 2024: +22%) 3. Americas +13% (H1 2024: +13%) 4. Europe (excluding France) +18% (H1 2024: +18%) 5. France +14% (H1 2024: +15%) [1][5]. Summary by Category - **Sales Performance by Category**: - Leather and equestrian goods +17% (H1 2024: +19%) - Ready-to-wear and accessories +15% (H1 2024: +15%) - Silk and textiles +2% (H1 2024: +1%) - Perfume and beauty +7% (H1 2024: +5%) - Watches -6% (H1 2024: 0%) due to high base effects from exclusive events last year - Other categories, including jewelry and home goods, +17% (H1 2024: +19%) [2][6]. - **Company Outlook**: - Despite a complex economic and geopolitical environment, the company benefits from a highly integrated artisanal model, balanced distribution network, creativity, and customer loyalty. The company is expected to achieve year-over-year revenue growth at constant exchange rates in the medium term [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home furnishing sector and the paper industry, with specific recommendations for key companies [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The real estate chain policy effects are continuing to unfold, with leading paper companies issuing price increase notices. The home furnishing sector is experiencing a recovery in market sentiment due to supportive policies [6][7]. - In the home furnishing sector, cities like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou have announced the cancellation of residential standards, leading to improved transaction volumes for new and second-hand homes [6]. - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the home furnishing market, suggesting that their market sensitivity and organizational management capabilities will allow them to seize opportunities in a rapidly changing market environment [6]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - The report notes that the home furnishing subsidy policy in Guizhou province has been implemented, covering various categories with a subsidy of 20% of the product invoice amount [6]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on custom home furnishing companies like Oppein, Sophia, and Zhibang, as well as soft furniture companies like Kuka and Mousse [6]. Paper Industry - Leading paper companies have announced price increases, with cultural paper prices rising by 300 CNY/ton and white card paper prices increasing by 200 CNY/ton [7]. - The report mentions that Chenming Paper has halted production across multiple lines, affecting a total capacity of 7.03 million tons, which represents 71.7% of its total capacity [7]. - The report suggests that the recovery in domestic demand and the downward trend in pulp prices create a favorable environment for leading companies like Sun Paper [7]. Export Sector - The report indicates a rebound in export values across various categories due to the release of backlogged orders following the end of extreme weather conditions [8]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with established overseas production capacities and those in the home furnishing export sector [8]. Personal Care Sector - The report highlights a 14% year-on-year increase in GMV for the sanitary napkin industry during the Double 11 shopping festival, suggesting a positive outlook for companies with strong e-commerce channels [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook based on recent financial and fiscal policy measures [1][14]. Core Insights - Recent financial and fiscal policies have exceeded expectations, signaling growth stabilization and increased market confidence. This has led to a notable reversal in market trends [1][14]. - The impact on banks includes improved asset quality expectations due to supportive policies for local debt resolution and the real estate market. However, net interest margins are expected to continue narrowing, albeit at a slower rate [1][14]. - The government plans to supplement core Tier 1 capital for six major banks, enhancing their operational stability and dividend consistency [1][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The CITIC Bank Index fell by 1.12%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.48 percentage points. Notable performers included Minsheng Bank (+2.65%), Everbright Bank (+2.03%), and Shanghai Bank (+1.65%) [10]. - The LPR remained unchanged at 3.1% for the one-year term and 3.6% for the five-year term as of November 20, 2024, aligning with market expectations [10][16]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans were at historical lows of approximately 3.5% and 3.15%, respectively [10][16]. Industry and Company Dynamics - The National Financial Regulatory Administration reported a 0.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for commercial banks in the first three quarters of 2024, with large banks experiencing a decline of 1.3% [11][17]. - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with large banks showing a 9.2% increase [11][17]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.53%, a slight decrease from the previous half-year [11][17]. Recent Market Review - The report includes a detailed performance review of various banks, highlighting their stock price changes and year-to-date performance [23][25]. - The banking sector's overall performance reflects a mix of gains and losses, with specific banks like Minsheng Bank and Everbright Bank showing significant increases [23][25]. Funding Price Review - The report provides insights into public market operations, including reverse repos and MLF operations, indicating a net injection of liquidity into the market [31].

＃title＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 建筑材料 行 业 周 报 ＃ investSuggest ion＃ 推荐 （维持） | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------------| | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 东方雨虹 | 增持 | | 三棵树 | 增持 | | 华新水泥 | 增持 | | 伟星新材 | 增持 | | 海螺水泥 | 增持 | | 坚朗五金 | 增持 | | 兔宝宝 | 增持 | | 中国巨石 | 增持 | | 北新建材 | 增持 | | | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport ＃ 《【兴证建材】周观点：水泥 价格延续上行，关注产能置换 新规与供给出清空间》2024- 11-03 《【兴证建材】周观点：多地 水泥延续涨势，关注建材龙头 业绩改善》2024-10-27 《【兴证建材】周观点：水泥 价格延续涨势，政策再加码利 好建材基本面修复》2024-10- 20 分析师： 季贤东 jixiandong@xyzq.com.cn S0190522100003 地产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies such as Jincheng Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum receiving "Buy" ratings [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that geopolitical risks are driving gold prices upward, with gold reaching $2,700 per ounce. The future price movements will depend on inflation, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [4]. - Lithium carbonate prices have shown slight increases, with production expected to rise by 0.87% week-on-week. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the report suggests that lithium stocks like Yongxing Materials and Zhongkuang Resources are worth monitoring due to their low valuations [3][4]. - The aluminum market is under pressure from a strong dollar, leading to price declines. However, high alumina costs and inventory reductions provide some support for aluminum prices [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metals sector declined by 0.31%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.60 percentage points [21]. 2. Industrial Metals Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Aluminum: Strong Dollar Pressures Aluminum Prices - Aluminum prices have decreased due to a strong dollar, with the average price of A00 aluminum ingots falling [5][29]. - The alumina price index has increased week-on-week, indicating rising costs in the supply chain [29]. 2.2 Copper: Fluctuating Prices - Copper prices have been volatile, with domestic supply remaining tight and demand recovering. The report suggests limited downside for copper prices due to supply-demand dynamics [5][27]. 3. Precious Metals Fundamentals Tracking 3.1 Gold: Price Rebound - Gold prices have rebounded due to increased geopolitical tensions, with a focus on the potential for continued liquidity support from central banks [4][5]. 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking 4.1 Lithium: Slight Price Increase - The average price of lithium carbonate has risen slightly, with production expected to increase. The report suggests that lithium stocks are currently undervalued [3][4]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring geopolitical developments and macroeconomic indicators, as they significantly impact commodity prices and investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for major construction state-owned enterprises including China Railway, China State Construction, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, China Electric Power Construction, China Chemical, China National Materials, China Steel International, and Honglu Steel Structure [1]. Core Insights - The issuance of special refinancing bonds exceeding 1 trillion yuan is accelerating, which is expected to improve the fundamentals of large construction state-owned enterprises [2][3]. - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a debt limit of 6 trillion yuan to local governments, facilitating the issuance of refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts, thereby supporting infrastructure projects [3][4]. - The construction sector is anticipated to see a rebound in performance due to the rapid pace of debt reduction and the increased use of new special bonds [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Important Events Tracking - The Ministry of Finance has approved a debt limit of 6 trillion yuan for local governments, with plans for early allocation of 2025's new special bond limits [22]. - Various provinces, including Zhejiang and Liaoning, are set to issue refinancing special bonds to replace hidden debts, with amounts reaching 676 billion yuan and 467 billion yuan respectively [22]. 2. Market Performance Tracking - From November 18 to November 22, 2024, the construction engineering sector (SW) declined by 1.61%, while the overall A-share index fell by 2.08%, resulting in an excess return of 0.46 percentage points for the construction sector [23]. - Sub-sectors such as housing construction and water and electricity experienced varying degrees of decline, with housing construction down by 0.29% and water and electricity down by 3.32% [23]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - Fixed asset investment reached 4,232.22 billion yuan from January to October 2024, showing a year-on-year increase [2]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) totaled 14,923.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [6]. - The construction sector's PE (TTM) is reported at 9.94, with a historical percentile of 17.58%, indicating a relatively low valuation [27]. 4. Financing Data Tracking - From November 16 to November 22, 2024, new special bonds issued amounted to 40.12 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 39,417.06 billion yuan for the year, exceeding the planned quota [5][32]. - The report highlights a net financing deficit in urban investment bonds during the same period, indicating challenges in the financing landscape [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 恒瑞医药 and "Hold" ratings for 信达生物, 百济神州, 翰森制药, 爱博医疗, and 恩华药业 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes continued focus on innovative drugs and the innovation drug supply chain, while gradually paying attention to consumer healthcare sectors [1][3]. - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a steady trend, with a focus on innovation and internationalization as core themes [1][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - From November 18 to November 22, the pharmaceutical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 2.36% compared to a 2.60% drop in the index [17]. - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical sector has underperformed, with a decline of 10.38%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 23.04 percentage points [17]. 2. Industry Events and Policy Overview - On November 20, the National Healthcare Security Administration issued guidelines for pricing projects related to radiological examinations, which will help standardize pricing across provinces [27]. - On November 22, multiple government departments released opinions to enhance the management of drug linkage at the grassroots level, expanding the types of drugs available for chronic and common diseases [27]. 3. Industry Investment Strategy - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with good growth potential and industrial logic, with innovation and internationalization as key themes [29][30]. - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector's fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, with Q4 likely to see policy and overseas developments materialize [30]. 4. Recommended Companies - Recommended companies include: - 恒瑞医药: Transitioning through innovation pain points, with several innovative drugs starting to gain traction [44]. - 信达生物: Entering an accelerated growth phase with major products expected to launch next year [44]. - 百济神州: Showing strong performance with its product pipeline [44]. - 翰森制药: A quality comprehensive pharmaceutical company with expanding international opportunities [44]. - 爱博医疗: Growth driven by innovative R&D and new product launches [44]. - 恩华药业: Steady growth in the psychiatric anesthesia sector with a robust product pipeline [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive sector, suggesting an increase in allocation to automotive stocks [5]. Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy next year, with significant growth in the sales of new energy heavy trucks in October [4][15]. - The report indicates that the automotive sector's fundamentals are improving, with a recommendation to increase exposure to automotive stocks due to positive market dynamics and government policies [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Dynamics - The vehicle replacement policy is likely to continue next year, with over 400,000 applications for vehicle scrapping and replacement already submitted, leading to a more than 50% year-on-year increase in scrapped vehicle recovery from January to October [15]. - In October, sales of new energy heavy trucks reached a record high of 8,247 units, marking a 141% year-on-year increase [16]. 2. Sector Performance and Valuation - For the week of November 16-22, 2024, the automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with the automotive index declining by 2.2% compared to a 1.9% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [19]. - The automotive sector's PE-TTM (unadjusted) stands at 28.7, with a historical valuation percentile of 59.5%. The sub-sectors' PE-TTM values are 29.4 for passenger cars, 38.7 for commercial vehicles, 26.2 for auto parts, and 329.3 for automotive services, with historical percentiles of 93.8%, 82.6%, 45.9%, and 72.3% respectively [25]. 3. Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks for the week include Dongfang Precision (+123.7%) and Lihua Co. (+100.4%), while Yutong Bus (-16.4%) and Weichai Power (-14.9%) were among the worst performers [28]. 4. Important News and Announcements - The report highlights significant industry news, including the launch of new models and sales forecasts, indicating a positive outlook for the automotive market in November [39][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong market position and expected growth in adjusted net profit for 2024/2025/2026 [3][6] Core Views - The company benefits from favorable real estate policies, which are expected to drive market recovery and enhance its market share [6] - The company's new home GTV monetization rate reached a historical high in 2024Q3, with a GTV of 227.6 billion yuan, up 18.5% YoY, outperforming the industry [5] - The company's rental service business revenue grew 118% YoY in 2024Q3, driven by the rapid expansion of its "Worry-Free Rent" managed properties [6] - The company has consistently delivered on its shareholder return commitments, with $5.8 billion used for share repurchases in the first three quarters of 2024 [6] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024Q3 was 22.6 billion yuan, up 26.8% YoY, with a gross margin of 22.7%, down 5.2 percentage points QoQ due to increased fixed costs [7] - Adjusted net profit for 2024Q3 was 1.78 billion yuan, down 17.5% YoY, but exceeded Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - The company's existing home GTV in 2024Q3 was 477.8 billion yuan, up 8.8% YoY, with expectations of significant YoY and QoQ growth in Q4 due to policy tailwinds [7] Business Segments - The home decoration and furnishing segment saw a GTV of 4.1 billion yuan in 2024Q3, up 24.6% YoY, with a contribution margin increase of 2.1 percentage points to 31% [9] - The rental service business contributed a profit margin of 4.4% in 2024Q3, down 1.4 percentage points QoQ due to seasonal cost increases [6] Market Data - The company's closing price was $19.98 per ADS, with a total market capitalization of $24.1 billion and total assets of 1,227.96 billion yuan as of November 21, 2024 [1] - The company's net assets were 707.75 billion yuan, with a net asset per share of 19.5 yuan [1]