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能链智电:充电运营服务平台领军者,盈利拐点有望带来大幅估值回升-20250308
Winrich Securities· 2025-03-07 18:14
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on NaaS Technology (NAAS.US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $3.20, indicating a potential upside of 178% from the current price of $1.15 [4][3]. Core Insights - NaaS Technology is positioned as a leading electric vehicle charging service platform in China, capitalizing on a vast market opportunity as the industry expands rapidly [5][8]. - The company has undergone strategic refocusing in 2024, enhancing its asset-light business model, which has led to a significant increase in gross margin from 19% in Q4 2023 to 57% in Q3 2024, and a turnaround in net profit margin from -525% to 46% in the same period [3][22]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - NaaS Technology, established in 2019 and listed on NASDAQ in 2022, is a major player in China's electric vehicle charging service market, providing charging solutions and value-added services to both operators and users [8][9]. Market Growth - The Chinese electric vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of electric vehicles expected to exceed 45 million by 2025, driven by policy support and technological advancements [17][18]. - The charging service market is also expanding, with public charging stations projected to reach approximately 358,000 by the end of 2024, reflecting a robust infrastructure development [18][21]. Strategic Focus - In 2024, the company has strategically focused on its core charging service business, which now accounts for over 95% of total revenue, leading to improved profitability metrics [22][24]. - The gross profit has increased from 12 million RMB in Q4 2023 to 25 million RMB in Q3 2024, showcasing the effectiveness of the strategic shift [22][23]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is stabilizing, with major players like NaaS Technology and its closest competitor, New Electric Path, entering a phase of steady competition, reducing the intensity of rivalry [34][35]. - The company has improved its bargaining power due to the fragmented nature of the upstream charging station market, leading to an increase in its gross take rate from approximately 10% to 16.1% [33][30]. AI and Data Utilization - NaaS Technology is leveraging its extensive transaction data to enhance operational efficiency through its NEF (NaaS Energy Fintech) system, which aims to optimize service pricing and improve user engagement [39][40]. - The company is establishing a comprehensive ecosystem by collaborating with major automotive manufacturers and digital map providers, enhancing its service offerings and market reach [40][41]. Valuation Transition - The company is expected to achieve breakeven by 2025, transitioning from a startup valuation model to a growth-oriented valuation framework, with projected revenues of 1.83 billion RMB in 2024 and 2.29 billion RMB in 2025 [3][42]. - The target price of $3.20 is based on a projected P/S ratio of 1.4x for 2025, reflecting the anticipated growth and stability in the competitive landscape [43].
能链智电:充电运营服务平台领军者,盈利拐点有望带来大幅估值回升-20250307
Winrich Securities· 2025-03-07 08:23
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on NaaS (NAAS.US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $3.20, indicating a potential upside of 178% from the current price of $1.15 [4][3]. Core Insights - NaaS is positioned as a leading electric vehicle charging service platform in China, capitalizing on a vast market opportunity as the industry expands [5][8]. - The company has shifted its strategy towards a light-asset business model, significantly improving its profitability metrics, with gross margins rising from 19% in Q4 2023 to 57% in Q3 2024 [3][22]. - The report anticipates that NaaS will achieve breakeven in 2025, transitioning from a startup valuation model to a growth-oriented valuation framework [3][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - NaaS, established in 2019 and listed on NASDAQ in 2022, is a major player in China's electric vehicle charging service sector, providing solutions for both operators and EV owners [8][9]. Market Growth - The Chinese electric vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of EVs expected to exceed 45 million by 2025, driven by supportive policies and technological advancements [17][18]. - The charging service market is also expanding, with projections indicating a 50% year-on-year increase in charging volume, reaching over 110 billion kWh in 2024 [18][19]. Strategic Focus - In 2024, NaaS has refocused its strategy on its core charging service business, which now accounts for over 95% of total revenue, leading to improved operational efficiency and profitability [22][24]. - The company has established a comprehensive ecosystem with partnerships across various sectors, enhancing its market position [13][40]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment is stabilizing, with NaaS improving its bargaining power due to a fragmented supply base and reduced competition from smaller players [30][34]. - The report notes that NaaS's gross take rate has increased from approximately 10% in 2023 to 16.1% in Q3 2024, reflecting enhanced negotiation capabilities [33][29]. AI and Data Utilization - NaaS is leveraging its extensive transaction data to develop AI-driven solutions that optimize service delivery and enhance user engagement [39][38]. - The NEF (NaaS Energy Fintech) system is designed to improve operational efficiency and customer retention through personalized services and intelligent pricing models [39][40]. Valuation Transition - The report predicts a shift in NaaS's valuation from a startup model to a growth-oriented model by 2025, with expected revenues of 1.83 billion, 2.29 billion, and 3.60 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [3][42]. - The target price of $3.20 is based on a projected P/S ratio of 1.4x for 2025, reflecting the company's growth potential and stable market position [43].