《AI 驱动药物研发革命，开启全球一体化 CRDMO 业务新增长篇章》，2025.04.23.. 证券分析师 蔡雨 SFC 持牌号：BTG755 Mail:jack.cai@usmart.hk | 证券研究报告 | 公司研究报告 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 医药生物 | | | 投资评级（买入） | | 维亚生物（1873.HK） | | 2025年9 | 月3 日 | AI赋能药物研发，CDMO商业化产品爆发在即 | | 恒生指数 | 25,343.43 | 基于已披露的 2025 年中报，维持买入评级及目标价 4.0 港元，观点如下： | | 恒生综合指数 | 3,890.56 | | | 恒生医疗保健指数 | 4,615.09 |  公司经营点评 | | 目标价（港币） 潜在涨幅/跌幅 | 4.0 | 2025 年上半年，公司营业收入 8.3 亿元，同比下降 15.3%，经调整净利润 1.8 | | 市场一致预期 | 41.3% 3.04 | 亿元，同比增长 9.1%。收入方面，公司收入有所下降，主要由于公司 CDMO | | | | 业务收入有所降低。2025 年上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$0.75 [1]. Core Insights - The company has completed all resumption guidelines set by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating a restoration of governance and an expected valuation recovery [1]. - The core operational performance remains robust, with a reported revenue of RMB 4.668 billion for the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% [1]. - The company has established a new internal control system and governance structure, addressing previous regulatory concerns and enhancing operational transparency [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Resumption and Governance - The company has fulfilled all six resumption conditions required by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, including independent investigations and internal control reviews [1]. - The previous financial statements do not require restatement, and the identified issues are deemed procedural rather than indicative of systemic fraud [1]. Operational Performance - Despite facing audit and compliance pressures during the suspension, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 4.668 billion, driven by oilfield services and marine engineering [1]. - The gross profit margin remained stable at 24.0%, reflecting ongoing improvements in product structure and pricing power [1]. Valuation Update - The target price has been adjusted to HK$0.75, reflecting the potential for valuation recovery as governance issues are resolved and market confidence is restored [3]. - The company is expected to attract value-oriented and trading funds post-resumption, enhancing liquidity and valuation benchmarks [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Luyuan Group Holdings (2451.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.41, indicating a potential upside of 61.2% from the current price of HKD 7.99 [2][4]. Core Insights - Luyuan Group is a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry, focusing on technological innovation and industry transformation since its establishment in 1997. The company has introduced significant technologies such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery systems, enhancing product durability and range [4][7]. - The transition to new national standards is expected to stimulate demand for electric two-wheelers, with a projected recovery in sales starting in 2025 due to government incentives for trade-ins [4][25]. - The company is strategically repositioning itself as a leader in "all-scenario light mobility solutions," aiming to transform from a traditional manufacturer to a mobility service provider, with a focus on high-end markets and an integrated service ecosystem [4][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Luyuan Group are as follows: - 2024: CNY 50.72 billion (YoY -0.22%) - 2025: CNY 60.2 billion (YoY +18.69%) - 2026: CNY 73.2 billion (YoY +21.59%) - 2027: CNY 88.5 billion (YoY +20.90%) - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: CNY 1.16 billion (YoY -20.29%) - 2025: CNY 1.75 billion (YoY +50.86%) - 2026: CNY 3.23 billion (YoY +84.57%) - 2027: CNY 4.58 billion (YoY +41.80%) - The report indicates a significant improvement in earnings per share (EPS) from CNY 0.29 in 2024 to CNY 1.07 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 25.72 to 6.68 over the same period [3][4][19]. Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market in China is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.32% from 2019 to 2024, despite a decline in 2024 due to weak consumer demand and industry adjustments [4][25]. - The market is characterized by a shift from price competition to quality competition, with leading brands focusing on technological advancements and differentiated offerings to enhance product value [31][34]. - The introduction of new national standards in 2024 is expected to further elevate product quality and safety, driving the industry towards higher standards and compliance [40][41]. Technological Advancements - Luyuan Group has developed core technologies such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery systems, which significantly improve product performance and longevity, addressing key industry challenges [47][48]. - The company is also enhancing its smart technology offerings, integrating features like real-time monitoring and AI-driven maintenance to improve user experience and safety [51][52]. Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the LYVA brand marks Luyuan's entry into the high-end market, with a focus on premium electric two-wheelers designed for various high-end scenarios [61]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new manufacturing bases, aiming to meet future demand and enhance market share [53]. Sales and Distribution - Luyuan has established a comprehensive sales network with over 12,800 retail stores across China, supported by a robust online sales strategy that integrates e-commerce with traditional retail [54][57].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Luyuan Group Holdings (2451.HK) with a target price of HKD 13.41, indicating a potential upside of 61.2% from the current price of HKD 7.99 [2][4]. Core Insights - Luyuan Group is a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry, leveraging technological innovation to lead market development. The company has introduced significant advancements such as liquid-cooled motors and digital battery technology, enhancing product durability and range [4][7]. - The transition to new national standards is expected to stimulate demand for electric two-wheelers, with a projected recovery in sales starting in 2025 due to government incentives for trade-ins [4][25]. - The company's strategic shift towards high-end markets and the establishment of a comprehensive mobility ecosystem is anticipated to drive growth and improve profitability [4][61]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Luyuan Group are as follows: - 2024: CNY 50.72 billion (YoY -0.22%) - 2025: CNY 60.2 billion (YoY +18.69%) - 2026: CNY 73.2 billion (YoY +21.59%) - 2027: CNY 88.5 billion (YoY +20.90%) [3][4] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: CNY 1.16 billion (YoY -20.29%) - 2025: CNY 1.75 billion (YoY +50.86%) - 2026: CNY 3.23 billion (YoY +84.57%) - 2027: CNY 4.58 billion (YoY +41.80%) [3][4]. Industry Overview - The electric two-wheeler market in China is projected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.32% from 2019 to 2024, despite a decline in 2024 due to weak consumer demand and industry adjustments [4][25]. - The market is characterized by a significant shift from price competition to quality competition, with leading brands focusing on technological advancements and product differentiation [31][34]. - The introduction of new national standards in 2025 is expected to enhance product quality and safety, further driving the industry's evolution [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic investment in GIBO, an AI-generated content platform, as a significant catalyst for the company's growth and market positioning in the AI sector [5][9]. - The partnership with GIBO is expected to enhance the company's valuation and market attention, particularly following GIBO's successful NASDAQ listing, which achieved a market capitalization of approximately 51.48 billion USD [7][8]. - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation towards AI, establishing a quantitative trading department to optimize investment management through machine learning [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has initiated an AI strategic transformation, responding to market uncertainties and aiming to leverage AI investment opportunities [7]. Recent Developments - The company signed a public relations service agreement with GIBO, transitioning from an early financial investor to a strategic partner, which is expected to drive significant capital gains [9]. - GIBO has established a strong user base across 15 Asian markets, with 72 million registered users and 35 million monthly active users, indicating robust market penetration [7]. Financial Performance - GIBO's FY24 revenue is projected to grow by 280% to 120 million USD, with a gross margin of 85%, significantly higher than the industry average [8]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for GIBO stands at 8.5 USD, outperforming competitors like TikTok [8]. Strategic Outlook - The collaboration with GIBO is seen as a pathway for the company to transition from traditional finance to a more digital and intelligent framework, enhancing its long-term growth trajectory [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the partnership will yield synergistic benefits, combining the company's financial services with GIBO's AI capabilities [10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Viva Biotech (1873.HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 3.5, indicating a potential upside of 133% from the current price of HKD 1.5 [1]. Core Insights - Viva Biotech is positioned as a leader in the structure-based drug discovery (SBDD) market and is expanding into the Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) sector, creating a comprehensive research and production platform [1][8]. - The company has established itself as a global leader in SBDD, leveraging advanced technologies and AI to enhance drug design and development efficiency [8][12]. - The integration of AI into the research and production processes is expected to significantly accelerate the discovery of new drug targets and mechanisms, creating additional market opportunities [1][12]. - The company has successfully attracted strategic investors, which enhances its valuation potential and operational capabilities [1][17]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Leader in Structure-Based Drug Discovery - Viva Biotech is a leading provider of SBDD services, offering a one-stop solution from early-stage drug development to commercial production [8]. - The company utilizes advanced technologies such as X-ray crystallography, Cryo-EM, and DNA-encoded library technology to support its drug discovery services [8][9]. Section 2: Focus on SBDD and CDMO - The acquisition of Langhua Pharmaceutical in 2020 allowed Viva Biotech to enter the CDMO market, providing a full-service platform from clinical development to commercial production [9][59]. - The CDMO sector is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating a market size of USD 231 billion by 2030, with China’s share increasing to 23.9% [59][60]. Section 3: AI Empowerment Across the Value Chain - The company is enhancing its capabilities by integrating AI into its drug discovery processes, which is expected to lead to faster and more efficient drug development [12][28]. - Viva Biotech has developed a proprietary AI drug design platform that will cover all aspects of preclinical drug research [12]. Section 4: Strategic Investments and Valuation - The introduction of strategic investors such as Temasek and Honghui Fund has provided significant capital, enhancing the company's operational and governance structure [17]. - The current valuation of the company is considered low compared to historical levels, indicating substantial room for valuation recovery [1][17]. Section 5: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 2,156 million in 2023 to RMB 3,355 million by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly, from a loss of RMB 100 million in 2023 to RMB 471 million by 2028, reflecting a strong turnaround [2].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Viva Biotech (1873.HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 3.5, indicating a potential upside of 133% from the current price of HKD 1.5 [1]. Core Insights - Viva Biotech is positioned as a leader in the structure-based drug discovery (SBDD) market and is expanding into the Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) sector, creating a comprehensive R&D and production platform [8][9]. - The company has integrated AI technology into its operations, enhancing its drug discovery capabilities and creating new market opportunities [12][59]. - The introduction of strategic investors has significantly improved the company's valuation, with a notable focus on its low valuation compared to historical levels [17][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Viva Biotech, founded in 2008 and listed in 2019, specializes in SBDD and offers a range of advanced technologies for drug discovery [8]. - The company has established a strong position in the CRO market, serving over 1,568 clients, including major pharmaceutical companies [28]. Business Strategy - The acquisition of Langhua Pharmaceutical in 2020 marked Viva's entry into the CDMO sector, allowing it to provide end-to-end services from drug development to commercialization [9][59]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity by 400 cubic meters between 2024 and 2025 to support new drug commercialization [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,987 million in 2024 to RMB 3,355 million by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly, from a loss of RMB 100 million in 2023 to RMB 471 million by 2028, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [2]. Market Position - The global CRO market is anticipated to reach USD 147.7 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.7%, while the CDMO market is projected to grow to USD 231 billion, highlighting significant growth opportunities for Viva Biotech [22][59]. - The report emphasizes the company's unique "service + investment" model, which combines immediate cash flow from CRO services with long-term gains from investments in biotech startups [9]. Competitive Landscape - Viva Biotech's valuation metrics, such as a 24 PE ratio for its CRO business, indicate a favorable investment opportunity compared to peers [3]. - The company has a competitive edge through its advanced technology platforms and a strong focus on AI-driven drug discovery, setting it apart from competitors in the industry [12][59].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "STRONG BUY" rating to the company with a target price of HKD101.0 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong FY24 results with a revenue increase of 26.5% YoY and a significant turnaround in adjusted net profit, which rose by 385.6% YoY, driven by growth in AI and SaaS solutions [2][4]. - The AI+SaaS business is expected to maintain robust growth, with projected revenue growth of 49.8% YoY, supported by a high revenue retention rate of 96% across enterprise customers [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the underpenetrated Chinese SaaS market, where SaaS/PaaS penetration is only 34.3%, compared to 80% in the U.S., indicating substantial growth potential [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 revenue reached RMB1,559 million, exceeding previous forecasts, with adjusted net profit of RMB79.2 million, significantly higher than the estimated RMB42.5 million [4][5]. - The AI+SaaS revenue was RMB842.2 million, reflecting a 19.9% YoY increase, while precision marketing revenue grew to RMB716.4 million, up 35.2% YoY [2][6]. Business Outlook - The AI-Agentforce platform is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in data processing and lifecycle management, with a focus on government sector relationships and international expansion [2][3]. - The precision marketing segment is anticipated to benefit from rising customer acquisition costs, driving demand for AI-powered solutions [2][3]. Valuation and Forecast - The target price was revised down to HKD101.0 from HKD157.7, reflecting a 12x FY25E price-to-sales multiple due to macro uncertainties [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for FY25E have been raised to RMB2,243 million, with expected growth rates of 43.89% YoY for total revenue and 49.75% YoY for AI-SaaS revenue [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Universal New Materials International (6616.HK), with a target price of HKD 7.31, indicating a potential upside of 106.5% from the current closing price of HKD 3.54 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic producer of pearlescent materials, demonstrating excellent growth and profitability. Its main products include pearlescent materials and synthetic mica, with applications in industrial coatings, plastics, automotive coatings, and cosmetics. The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a CAGR of 30.54% from 2019 to 2024, and a projected revenue of HKD 1.649 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.0% [8][12]. - The global pearlescent materials market is steadily expanding, with a market size of RMB 23.5 billion in 2023 and a CAGR of 14.1% from 2016 to 2023. The Chinese market accounts for 27.5% of the global market, with a projected growth to RMB 126.5 billion by 2030 [32][34]. - The company possesses strong competitive advantages, including production cost optimization through technology, proprietary core technology patents, and a mature sales channel that provides strong bargaining power. The ongoing overseas acquisitions are expected to further enhance the company's performance and mark a deeper level of globalization [8][64]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are HKD 21.94 billion, HKD 27.71 billion, and HKD 33.08 billion, with growth rates of 33.1%, 26.3%, and 19.4% respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are HKD 3.40 billion, HKD 4.57 billion, and HKD 5.95 billion, with growth rates of 40.4%, 34.4%, and 30.2% respectively [8][71]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of approximately 53.0% in 2024, with a slight increase projected in subsequent years due to product structure optimization and supply chain synergies [25][70]. Market Dynamics - The pearlescent materials market is characterized by a shift towards high-end products, particularly synthetic mica-based pearlescent materials, which are in high demand due to their superior optical properties compared to traditional organic/inorganic pigments. The automotive and cosmetics sectors are driving this demand, with a CAGR of 38.0% and 19.5% respectively from 2016 to 2023 [42][51]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a new facility expected to come online in 2024, which will increase its annual production capacity to 30,000 tons of pearlescent materials [15][16]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing an acquisition strategy, including a significant deal to acquire Merck's surface solutions business for EUR 665 million, which is expected to enhance its global footprint and product offerings [64][66]. - The integration of the acquired business is anticipated to yield synergies in production capacity, sales channels, and technology, further solidifying the company's market position [66][68]. Conclusion - The report highlights the company's robust growth trajectory, strong market position, and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing its competitive edge in the pearlescent materials industry, making it a compelling investment opportunity [4][8][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 7.31, indicating a potential upside of 106.5% from the current closing price of HKD 3.54 [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic producer of pearlescent materials, demonstrating excellent growth and profitability. Its main products include pearlescent materials and synthetic mica, with applications in industrial coatings, plastics, automotive coatings, and cosmetics. The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with a CAGR of 30.54% from 2019 to 2024, and a projected revenue of HKD 1.649 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.0% [7][11]. - The global pearlescent materials market is steadily expanding, with a market size of RMB 23.5 billion in 2023 and a CAGR of 14.1% from 2016 to 2023. The demand for high-end products, such as synthetic mica pearlescent materials, is particularly strong due to their optical characteristics compared to traditional organic/inorganic pigments [7][34]. - The company possesses significant competitive advantages, including cost reduction through production technology optimization and smart factories, ownership of core technology patents, and strong bargaining power with distributors. Ongoing overseas acquisitions are expected to further enhance performance and mark a deeper global expansion [7][66]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach HKD 2.194 billion in 2025, with growth rates of 33.1%, 26.3%, and 19.4% for the years 2025 to 2027. Net profit is expected to be HKD 340 million in 2025, with growth rates of 40.4%, 34.4%, and 30.2% for the same period [7][73]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of approximately 53.0% in 2024, with a slight increase in subsequent years due to product structure optimization and supply chain synergies [7][72]. Market Dynamics - The pearlescent materials market is entering a new phase of diversified development, with increasing recognition and acceptance in various applications, particularly in cosmetics and automotive coatings. The market in China is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 126.5 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.0% [34][42]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from favorable national policies that support the pearlescent materials and synthetic mica industries, enhancing the investment environment and attracting resources [42].