证券研究报告宏观动态 2025年或有五大预期差 分析师：黄文涛 huangwentao@csc.com.cn 010-85130608 SAC 编号：S1440510120015 SFC 编号：BEO134 分析师：朱林宁 zhulinning@csc.com.cn 010-56135229 SAC 编号：S1440521020002 发布日期：2025年2月26日 分析师：刘天宇 liutianyu@csc.com.cn 010-56135236 SAC 编号：S1440524010003 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 核心观点和内容摘要 核心观点 2025年欣然已至，相较前期市场关注，或有五大预期差：第一个预期差是科技创新。原以为创新更多在美国，实际上我 国创新爆发，众多亮眼突破"出圈"，全球再次进入斯普特尼克时刻。第二个预期差是多重博弈。原以为特朗普竞选时 提出的60%关税将冲击市场，实际上此次美国MAGA2.0目标众多 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The analysis emphasizes that understanding China's fiscal strength requires looking beyond just the deficit ratio, as it involves both budgetary and non-budgetary revenues [3] - The total fiscal volume in China is expected to improve marginally in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by an increase in budgetary income and a slight recovery in non-budgetary financing [3][22] - The report highlights that the contraction of the fiscal volume in 2024 contributed to weak domestic demand and a pricing logic of "asset scarcity" [3] Summary by Sections Fiscal Overview - The report notes that since 2018, public budget revenue growth has experienced cyclical fluctuations, with significant impacts from the pandemic and tax reduction policies [5] - Non-tax revenues have shown high growth when tax revenues face pressure, serving as a counterbalance [6] Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenues have been in decline since 2022, dropping from a peak of 9.8 trillion yuan in 2021 to an estimated 6.2 trillion yuan in 2024, with land transfer revenues falling from 8.7 trillion yuan to 4.9 trillion yuan [7] Budgetary Financing - The report indicates a trend of increasing government budgetary financing, with a notable decline in municipal investment financing expected in 2024 [10][18] - The net increase in municipal investment debt is projected to drop significantly from approximately 6.8 trillion yuan in 2023 to about 3.1 trillion yuan in 2024 [11] 2025 Fiscal Projections - For 2025, the report forecasts a 4.3% growth in general public budget revenue, reaching approximately 22 trillion yuan, with tax revenue growth expected to align with nominal GDP growth [22] - Government fund revenue is anticipated to decline further to about 5.5 trillion yuan, with land transfer income projected to decrease by 16% to 4.1 trillion yuan [24] - The report predicts an increase in budgetary financing, with the deficit rate expected to rise to 4%, leading to a projected deficit of 5.7 trillion yuan [26] Sensitivity Analysis - The report provides optimistic and conservative scenarios for fiscal projections, indicating potential adjustments in non-tax revenues and land transfer income that could significantly impact overall fiscal spending in 2025 [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The market is currently influenced by three main themes: Trump's tariff path, changes in global AI narratives, and recent warm high-frequency data related to export and policy discussions in China [1] - The report suggests that the asset pricing for 2025 should not underestimate the intensity of tariff negotiations, pay attention to the implications of AI on US assets and its influence on Chinese technology, and recognize that current high-frequency data does not signal a turning point for domestic demand in 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Global Asset Performance - Commodities generally weakened, with gold ending an eight-week winning streak, US stocks declining, and Chinese A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the TMT sector, experiencing significant drops [2] - The A-share market saw a notable pullback, especially in the technology sector, with declines of 9.62% in telecommunications, 8.06% in media, and 8.01% in computing [2][12] Macroeconomic Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations due to ongoing net injections by the central bank and intensified tariff measures from Trump, leading to a tight balance in the funding environment [4] - The US stock market faced heightened volatility, primarily driven by AI technology fluctuations and deepening tariff disruptions, resulting in significant declines in risk assets like Bitcoin and US stocks [5] High-Frequency Data - Post-Spring Festival, industrial production is actively resuming, with February PMI showing a notable rebound, attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival and previous early holidays [7] - Economic highlights include stronger production elasticity in the mid-to-lower manufacturing sectors and robust consumer demand, likely supported by policies encouraging trade-in programs [7] Domestic Policy Review - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macro policies to expand domestic demand and promote technological and industrial innovation, aiming to stabilize the real estate and stock markets [8][66] - The National Energy Administration is working on policies to address the competitive issues in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, indicating ongoing efforts to optimize supply-side dynamics [8][67] Market Liquidity Observations - The central bank conducted significant reverse repos and MLF operations, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 433.1 billion yuan for the week, with interbank rates showing slight increases [49] - The A-share market's liquidity improved, with average daily trading volume approaching 20 trillion yuan [54] Major Events and Policies - The report highlights the expansion of tariffs by the US, with plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which is expected to impact trade dynamics significantly [60][61] - In Japan, CPI figures fell short of expectations, indicating potential caution from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate adjustments [62] Commodity Market Overview - Commodity prices faced downward pressure, with gold prices declining due to easing geopolitical risks and profit-taking by investors [26][27] - Oil prices dropped as a result of tariff threats impacting demand expectations, compounded by the resumption of oil exports from Iraq [28][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative price increase of over 15% [17]. Core Viewpoints - The company is significantly enhancing its layout in the humanoid robot sector, leveraging its strong manufacturing foundation and technological synergy from the industrial automation field, which positions it as a competitive player in the humanoid robot components market [1][4]. - The company is expected to achieve notable scale manufacturing advantages in humanoid robot core components, benefiting from its existing R&D and production systems, which can be directly applied to humanoid robot parts development [4][10]. - Despite a weak overall demand in the manufacturing sector, the company is projected to increase its market share in various products in 2024, with specific gains in general servo systems, low-voltage frequency converters, and industrial robots [11]. Summary by Sections Recruitment and Media Coverage - The company has recently posted job openings for various positions related to humanoid robots, indicating a strategic focus on this area [2]. - The company was featured in a special segment on CCTV, highlighting its role as a core component supplier in the humanoid robot industry [3]. Industrial Automation Advantages - The company’s deep manufacturing expertise in industrial automation is expected to empower its humanoid robot core components, allowing for cost-effective production and reduced R&D expenses [4][10]. - The company has established a high-efficiency supply chain management system, which will facilitate rapid cost reductions once humanoid robot components enter mass production [10]. Market Position and Growth - The company is maintaining a solid leadership position in industrial automation, with an anticipated increase in market share for several products in 2024, despite a projected decline in the overall market size [11]. - The subsidiary, United Power, is set to go public, aiming to raise 4.857 billion yuan to strengthen its position as a leading third-party supplier in the new energy electric drive market [16]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.965 billion yuan, 5.882 billion yuan, and 6.895 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.71%, 18.47%, and 17.22% [17][18].

证券研究报告公司动态报告 制冷、汽零增量涌现，重视低估值下的投资机会 分析师：马王杰 mawangjie@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440521070002 分析师：翟延杰 zhaiyanjie@csc.com.cn SAC编号： S1440521080002 发布日期：2025年2月23日 核心观点与投资建议 核心观点 Æ ‰ ƒ ,&ii-4 ¿ - =E¹Q , º ËCz -r ¼″J Ç"³M, 8 ρ - Ä æ73$Æ$MFE)½ }6B5* 7Q FU FKµ | B ,EceE³ æ1ç D °P , $MFE ? Q 6 eL6 , 1b FKµ4Ý > -4 ¿F ª$6K Ý ÷ D Ø m 8 p ㅤ ¸ >, P 3NÓ 75# } >+k †7Þ6öL6= |+^ D 0 -" } < \ Þ ¢ .þ _73 N0i!› @ >, ¸ Β ，r § FF!؛#¾ L ËCz OAäÆ G "NºA24-26年公司分别实现营业收入129、147、165亿元，同比分别增长13%、14%、12%；分别实现 归属母公司净利润9、11、12 亿元，同比分别增长24%、17% ...

证券研究报告·行业深度 AI 使高端被动元件需求激增， 相关金属新材料迎发展机遇 核心观点 当前消费电子行业复苏，行业景气度回升，"以旧换新"政策撬 动替换大市场，伴随新能源车及 AI 发展，被动元件需求数量激 增，新能源车 MLCC 用量是传统燃油车 6 倍，AI 服务器、AI PC、 AI 手机等 MLCC 需求量分别增长约 100%、40%-60%和 20%，同 时提出了更高功率、更高频率、更高可靠性、更小体积等高性能 要求；AI 服务器用 GPU 芯片电感需满足更大功率、更小体积、 更低散热等要求，同时电感需求数量有显著提升。当前消费电子 行业需求复苏向上与 AI 催化新消费共振，被动元件需求数量、 性能要求大幅提升，至 2030 年 AI 领域用 MLCC 及芯片电感年均 增速预计超 30%，推荐关注被动元件及上游原材料行业投资机 会，尤其推荐上下游一体化企业，充分享受全产业链升级红利。 金属新材料 摘要 消费电子需求向上，以旧换新撬动大市场。 维持 强于大市 被动元件当前处于底部向上，复苏态势明显，国内"以旧换新" 政策拉动，有望释放换机需求，撬动消费电子大市场。被动元件 中，电容电感电阻为核心元 ...

公募基金军工持仓持续探底，静 待下一轮结构性复苏 核心观点 截止到 2 024 年第四季度，根据公募基金前十大重仓股持股数据， 军工持仓总市值为 1278.64 亿元，军工股持仓占比为 4.34%，相较于 2 0 24Q1 低点（4.11%）回升 0.23 个百分点，相较于 2024Q3（5.31%）下 滑 0 . 97 个百分点。分地区看，北上广深公募基金持军工股总市值环比 有所回落。24Q4 公募基金军工持仓环比减配至历史低位区间，随着军 队人事调整和相关制度改革的逐步落地、"十四五"后期订单有望逐步 下发、积压叠加新增需求、外延并购预期升温，预计 2025 年军工行业 将迎来结构性复苏，景气度切换或推动持仓意愿持续回暖。 主要内容 证券研究报告·行业动态 1、截止到 2024 年第四季度，根据公募基金前十大重仓股持股数据，军 工持仓总市值为1278.64亿元，军工股持仓占比为4.34%，相较于2024Q1 低点（4.11%）回升 0.23 个百分点，相较于 2024Q3（5.31%）下滑 0. 97 个百分点。分地区看，北上广深公募基金持军工股总市值环比有所回落。 24Q4 公募基金军工持仓环比减配至历 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Short-term gold price increases may pause as actual interest rates cannot explain an 8% rise, with current increases reaching 7.5%[1] - Gold price has exceeded the upper limit of the 95% prediction range based on U.S. debt models, indicating extreme conditions[2] - Central bank gold purchases show a significant negative correlation with gold prices, suggesting that after substantial price increases, central banks may not chase higher prices[3] Group 2: Market Signals and Trends - The current market signals, including price differentials, positions, and inventory, are not favorable for gold price increases[4] - The net long position in gold is at a historical high, but this may lead to a potential short-term correction in prices[5] - The relationship between gold and Bitcoin is still in a recovery phase, suggesting a strategy of "long gold & short Bitcoin" for hedging against short-term risks[6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it discusses various trends and their implications for investment opportunities in artificial intelligence. Core Insights - The development of large language models has entered a deep reasoning stage, bringing general artificial intelligence closer, with AI applications on the verge of an explosion. The future of AI is explored through three dimensions: technology as the driving force, application as the traction, and energy as the support [2][34]. Summary by Relevant Sections Technology as the Driving Force - Trend 1: Reasoning computation enhances the accuracy of large models, and reinforcement learning stimulates the reasoning capabilities of models [3][6]. - Trend 2: The scarcity of high-quality data is increasing, highlighting the value of synthetic data, which is generated through AI technologies [7][9]. - Trend 3: The scaling law remains effective, with the potential for the o3 model and GPT-5 to drive a cyclical effect between models and data [10][12]. Application as the Traction - Trend 4: AI Agents are set to become mainstream, with significant advancements in capabilities and widespread adoption by major companies [13][15]. - Trend 5: Embodied intelligence is making breakthroughs, with humanoid robots entering mass production [16][18]. - Trend 6: AI4Science has entered a golden age, significantly accelerating research across various STEM fields [18][20]. - Trend 7: Innovations at the edge will continue to emerge, reshaping the new division of labor in the industry [21][22]. - Trend 8: Autonomous driving is progressing towards end-to-end algorithms, with Robotaxi moving towards commercialization [23][24]. - Trend 9: The "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative is being widely implemented, leading to digital transformation in enterprises [25][26]. Energy as the Support - Trend 10: The demand for energy in AI is increasing significantly, raising concerns about sustainable development [28][30].

Summary of the China Cosmetics Industry Research Industry Overview - The cosmetics industry in China is facing a challenging year with weak consumption sentiment and no clear signs of recovery [2][6] - Brands are preparing for potential further decline or flat sales, implementing stringent cost controls including headcount reductions [2][6] - Market consolidation is ongoing, with leading players gaining market share from smaller and foreign brands [2][6] - A trend of consumption trade-down is observed across all levels, from prestige to mass brands [2][6] Key Companies Giant Bio - **Product Life Cycle**: Giant has leveraged synthetic biology for mass production of recombinant collagen, benefiting from policy support and demand for anti-aging products [3][6] - **Core Product Growth**: The Collagen Stick has become a hero product, supported by collaborations with key opinion leaders (KOLs) [3][6] - **Marketing Strategy**: Giant's product-driven sales and marketing create a barrier to entry for competitors, emphasizing scientific credibility and customer education [3][6] - **Valuation**: Target price set at HK$61.0, based on a 28x 2024E P/E, reflecting faster growth prospects compared to historical averages [9][10] Proya - **Agility and Scale**: Proya's competitive advantage lies in its ability to adapt quickly to market changes while maintaining large sales volumes [7][11] - **Leadership Transition**: The company is undergoing a leadership transition with expectations of a two-year adjustment period [7][11] - **Valuation**: Target price set at RMB112.8 based on DCF valuation, reflecting strong cash flow and long-term investor perspectives [11][12] Risks - **Giant Bio**: Risks include intense competition, niche market position, rising online channel development costs, and regulatory risks [10] - **Proya**: Risks involve competition from local and international brands, failure to develop new products, weaker digital operations, and potential economic slowdown impacts [12] Market Trends - The competitive landscape is shifting, with consumers increasingly favoring medical beauty and leading domestic brands over international options [2][6] - The upcoming Goddess Festival (Women's Day) is expected to further highlight the competitive dynamics within the industry [1][2] Conclusion - The China cosmetics industry is currently in a state of flux, with significant challenges ahead. Leading domestic brands like Giant and Proya are well-positioned to navigate these challenges, but they must remain vigilant against competitive pressures and market changes.